"Taking Care of Business" - FINAL UPDATE (All The Possibilities Edition)

by blazer91 on Apr 14, 2009 8:33 AM PDT Comment 38 comments

FOR ALL YOU NAYSAYERS OUT THERE, DREAM of 54 (my prediction from midseason) is STILL ALIVE!!! As a sign of how far we've come, in my post on March 21, less than a month ago, only 22 PERCENT of Bedgers believed we would get to 54 wins!!!

Portland can still finish anywhere from 3-5. Good news for those of us who have seen Portland v. Dallas this year, is that there is NO WAY mathematically that Portland plays Dallas in the first round of the playoffs. However, there are still scenarios where Portland plays Houston, San Antonio and New Orleans.

The BEST POSSIBLE SCENARIO for Portland now would be to have BOTH Houston and San Antonio lose their games early in the night on Wednesday, allowing Denver to pull its starters (because Denver would be assured of the 2 seed with a Houston loss), assuring Portland the 3 seed and a matchup with New Orleans in the first round.

If we have to root for ONE of the Houston/San Antonio combination to lose, it would be San Antonio, because if Houston loses and San Antonio wins, we end up facing Houston in the first round. That''s the ONLY WAY Portland has to face Houston in the first round.

CURRENT STANDINGS:
2. DENVER	54-27
3. HOUSTON (TB over SA/POR)	53-28
4. PORTLAND (TB over SA)	53-28
5. SAN ANTONIO	53-28
6. NEW ORLEAND (TB over DAL)	49-32
7. DALLAS	49-32
8. UTAH	48-33

*** * * PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS:**
2. DENVER (TBs over SA/POR)	54-28
3. SAN ANTONIO (Div. Winner)	54-28
4. PORTLAND	54-28
5. HOUSTON	53-29
6. DALLAS	50-32
7. NEW ORLEANS	49-33
8. UTAH	48-34

Here's how the possibilities shake out:

There are three games remaining that involve the 2-7 teams:

Houston at Dallas (projected win for Dallas)
New Orleans at San Antonio (projected win for San Antonio)
Denver at Portland (projected win for Portland)

To summarize all the stuff below, there are still EIGHT possibilities for how the remaining games that involve the 2-7 seeds come out, and if Portland wins, it is assured a four seed or better.

If Portland wins and San Antonio and Houston both fall, Portland earns the 3 seed and plays New Orleans (not a bad matchup considering their late season swoon).
If San Antonio wins, and Houston loses, Portland will play Houston in the first round, and homecourt in that series depends on whether the Blazers win or lose vs. Denver.
The other FIVE possibilities all have Portland playing San Antonio in the first round, and the only way that is NOT a homecourt situation for Portland is if San Antonio wins its final game and Portland loses.

IF PORTLAND WINS AND:

SA/HOUSTON WIN
2. HOUSTON	54-28
3. DENVER	54-28
4. PORTLAND	54-28
5. SAN ANTONIO	54-28
6. NEW ORLEANS	49-33
7. DALLAS	49-33
8. UTAH	48-34

SA WINS / HOUSTON LOSES
2. DENVER	54-28
3. SAN ANTONIO	54-28
4. PORTLAND	54-28
5. HOUSTON	53-29
6. DALLAS	50-32
7. NEW ORLEANS	49-33
8. UTAH	48-34

HOUSTON WINS / SA LOSES
2. DENVER	54-28
3. HOUSTON	54-28
4. PORTLAND	54-28
5. SAN ANTONIO	53-29
6. NEW ORLEANS	50-32
7. DALLAS	49-33
8. UTAH	48-34

HOUSTON/SA BOTH LOSE:
2. DENVER	54-28
3. PORTLAND	54-28
4. HOUSTON	53-29
5. SAN ANTONIO	53-29
6. NEW ORLEANS	50-32
7. DALLAS	50-32
8. UTAH	48-34

IF PORTLAND LOSES AND:

SA/HOUSTON WIN
2. DENVER	55-27
3. HOUSTON	54-28
4. SAN ANTONIO	54-28
5. PORTLAND	53-29
6. NEW ORLEANS	49-33
7. DALLAS	49-33
8. UTAH	48-34

SA WINS / HOUSTON LOSES
2. DENVER	55-27
3. SAN ANTONIO	54-28
4. HOUSTON	53-29
5. PORTLAND	53-29
6. DALLAS	50-32
7. NEW ORLEANS	49-33
8. UTAH	48-34

HOUSTON WINS / SA LOSES
2. DENVER	55-27
3. HOUSTON	54-28
4. PORTLAND	53-29
5. SAN ANTONIO	53-29
6. NEW ORLEANS	50-32
7. DALLAS	49-33
8. UTAH	48-34

HOUSTON/SA BOTH LOSE:
2. DENVER	55-27
3. HOUSTON	53-29
4. PORTLAND	53-29
5. SAN ANTONIO	53-29
6. NEW ORLEANS	50-32
7. DALLAS	50-32
8. UTAH	48-34

DENVER

(current: 54-27) (projected: 54-28)

(2 seed)

Wed, Apr 15 at Portland L

HOUSTON

(current: 53-28) (projected: 53-29)

(3 seed)

Wed, Apr 15 at Dallas L (EXPECTED loss)

PORTLAND

(current: 53-28) (projected: 54-28)

(4 seed)

Wed, Apr 15 Denver W (Denver may rest guys if they clinch)

SAN ANTONIO

(current: 53-28) (projected: 54-28)

(5 seed)

Wed, Apr 15 New Orleans W (already lost to NO TWICE)

NEW ORLEANS

(current: 49-32) (projected: 49-33)

(6 seed)

Wed, Apr 15 at San Antonio L (beat them TWICE already)

DALLAS

(current: 49-32) (projected: 50-32)

(7 seed)

Wed, Apr 15 Houston W

UTAH

(current: 48-33) (projected: 48-34)

(8 seed)

Tue, Apr 14 at LA Lakers L

Thanks to everyone who has followed this through since my first mid-season post predicting 54 wins. Wish it could have been one more win to take the division, but everything has gone pretty much the way it was "supposed" to go (per my almost infalilble predictions).

GO BLAZERS!!!

11 recs | Comment 38 comments

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Comments

what was the percentage of people

who thought we’d get 53 wins?

by northwestj on Apr 14, 2009 9:13 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Not sure...wasn't asked at that time...

but it AIN’T GONNA HAPPEN!!!

Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!

And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!

by blazer91 on Apr 14, 2009 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I said

48-52 even with webster out (although I didn’t know it’d be for a year). I was attempting to be “realistic” with my expectations. I simply could NOT bring myself to go any lower and honestly, not surprised if we were a few higher. 56+ probably would have raised an eyebrow, and 60+ would have shocked me.

The goal is not to be better, the goal is to be the best.

by ratbastird on Apr 14, 2009 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That was

beginning of season expectations.

I’ve generally been pretty close with my predictions. Last year i was off by one (predicted 42) and year before that I was right on, but it’s not documented on BE. Year before that I was only partially and painfully paying attention.

I may be going 60+ for next season, but I like to watch the preseason games, wait to see how the team mixes things up, before actually committing. I commit before the first real game.

The goal is not to be better, the goal is to be the best.

by ratbastird on Apr 14, 2009 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know I´m among them

by Falcao on Apr 14, 2009 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I predicted anywhere from 49 to championship

http://janean.mybrute.com/

by Screen Name on Apr 14, 2009 8:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

that's quite a spread

Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!

And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!

by blazer91 on Apr 14, 2009 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why's this gotta be the final one?

you got the playoffs to do……then I’m sure there’s some #’s to be ran on the lottery, shoot you could even do one for the draft, with some sort of …..?? likelyness of another trade happening?

I dunno but this can’t be the “final one” ….I mean, I come for the front page, but these have become ….habit to read too man.

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.

by faith on Apr 14, 2009 9:22 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

and A question (k maybe 2)...

who does houston play if they lose and san antonio wins? do they have ANY motivation to want to play us in the first round opposed to their other options?

just a thought.

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.

by faith on Apr 14, 2009 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

lol...k never mind....

you answered my first one, It just took a few seconds to marinate in.
but on the second,…..what I mean is …..Is there any good reason for either to tank their game …for a more favorable first round?…would houston want to play us? or new Orleans? or whoever for that matter…

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.

by faith on Apr 14, 2009 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because their games are earlier

and because there are still eight permutations of wins and losses, Houston and San Antonio really can’t engineer who they are going to play by doing anything other than winning. San Antonio knows it is very likely they will play us, and all they can do to try to get an edge is win and hope for homecourt with a Blazers loss, so Spurs fans become Nuggets fans if they win. Houston has to win to try to secure homecourt in the first two rounds, and in that scenario Rockets fans quickly become Blazers fans after they win.

Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!

And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!

by blazer91 on Apr 14, 2009 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

ahhhh

the trechery is thick then ;)

thanks for the entire series. it was really fun to read and even funner scratching my head later, but they always were clear, I’d just have to read em again. too much data, fryin the fat between the ears. :)

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.

by faith on Apr 14, 2009 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

the trechery is thick then ;)

The trenchery is deep. – Elgin

Blazers win BDL 2 on 2 tournament!
Skeets: i’ll close it down now … congrats. you bastards

by 22baylor on Apr 14, 2009 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wish I could help you out,

and the post may be back next year come midseason, but the whole methodology…win at home and lose to playoff teams on the road, kind of makes doing it for the playoffs meaningless, since everyone is playing playoff teams, so it would always project the division winner as winning. It’s not particularlyl well-suited for projecting upsets, etc. in the playoffs

Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!

And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!

by blazer91 on Apr 14, 2009 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

add in some point differential, difficulty of schedule, and factor in winning streaks

and I bet there’s some complex statistical math in there somewhere :)

The goal is not to be better, the goal is to be the best.

by ratbastird on Apr 14, 2009 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The whole point of these seems to be to avoid that stuff.

These are just simple, easy to read scenarios that can happen.

by Zaig on Apr 14, 2009 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Somewhere early in the year....

I predicted that we would get something like 45 wins.

And I was right!!! :)

Battling for homecourt in the last game of the year was so far removed from my prediction reality as to not be even a blip on the radar.

When I’m wrong I involuntarily haiku.

Crystal balls were wrong.
Pessimistic, Blind to see
Counterparts in brass.

The cowards never started
The weak died along the way
Only the strong survived
They were the Trailblazers

by lukeyhere on Apr 14, 2009 9:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

The worst case scenario IMO seems to be

SA win, PTB and Houston lose. We stat on road vs Hou.

2nd worse tie: start at home vs Houston or start on road vs SA?

best option: wait until the end of the season and be happy regardless of who the opponents are, we are playing well and the playoffs will be tough but enjoyable no matter who we face!

by QuebecBlzrFan on Apr 14, 2009 10:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Anyone know the tiebreakers if Utah wins tonight?

I know it doesn’t affect Portland, but I was interested.

by dprodigy19 on Apr 14, 2009 10:21 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Who we play

doesn’t really matter. I’m voting for home court, but I seriously believe there’s not a team in the league that can beat portland night in and night out. Portland learns and adapts every game. They’ve grueled out the season, won the close games, have a +15 win differential the past 10 games and just look good.

The only real factor i see is portland. Can they keep it up against denver? Can the keep that intensity in the play-offs or will they get skittish? If they keep it and play the way they’ve been playing, i see a championship.

They had a let down against Houston, and the blazers admitted they weren’t 100% focused. They came back after that and kept winning again. the cavs barely beat them when we didn’t have aldridge, on their home court.

I look forward to blazer basketball, beating the lakers, smacking down the king without a ring to the kingdom.

The goal is not to be better, the goal is to be the best.

by ratbastird on Apr 14, 2009 10:45 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

if I were Denver, I'd still try and win on Wednesday

cause I’d rather have Houston or San Antonio in my side of the bracket than Portland

by cloudydays on Apr 14, 2009 11:35 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm hoping

that they have the same kind of mental letdown from clinching the division that we had from clinching the playoffs. I think it’s very possible, especially if the Mavs beat the Rockets beforehand…of course, if I were Karl I’d forbid anybody from watching that game in the locker room beforehand.

The Michael Ruffin of BlazersEdge, cuz Amlmart said so.

by BlazersOrBust on Apr 14, 2009 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Houston wins

Denver will really put up a fight to maintain that #2 seed…

Koponen - PG of the future. For Italy, that is. Book it.

by Blazerholic on Apr 14, 2009 2:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Just another reason to root against the Rockets

but only if the Spurs lose, too.

Darn…don’t even know what to hope for, other than a Blazers win.

Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!

And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!

by blazer91 on Apr 14, 2009 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The order of goodness from a Blazers perspective

1> Spurs and Rockets both Lose (Portland gets either 3 seed vs. Hornets or 4 seed vs. Spurs)
2> Spurs lose, but Rockets win (Portland gets 4 seed vs. Spurs no matter what)
3> Spurs and Rockets both Win (Portland gets either 4 seed or 5 seed vs. Spurs)
4> Spurs win, but Rockets lose (Portland gets either 4 seed or 5 seed vs. Rockets)

Unfortunately, statistically speaking, the least favorable is also the most likely, as Rockets are “projected” to lose, while Spurs are “projected” to win.

Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!

And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!

by blazer91 on Apr 14, 2009 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Luckily (for those not having tickets to the game)

If SA loses, we really won’t care about the Denver game tomorrow.

Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!

And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!

by blazer91 on Apr 14, 2009 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

What is the first tiebreaker in a four way tie?

The BEdger previously known as BR7formvp.

by L-TrainFTW! on Apr 14, 2009 3:23 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

head to head record within the group, but no such thing here

there will be two, two-way ties, which are decided to determine division winners, then those division winners have to have a tiebreaker between themselves to see who wins, then the remaining two slots go to the division losers, who ahve the tiebreakers amongst themselves.

Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!

And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!

by blazer91 on Apr 14, 2009 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

which is why

if Denver, Houston, Portland and San Antonio all end up tied, the order goes

Houston (tiebreaker over SA for division winner, and tiebreaker over fellow division winner DEN)
Denver (tiebreaker over POR for division winner, and loses tiebreaker to fellow division winner HOU)
Portland (loses tiebreaker for division, put behind division winners, wins tiebreaker over SA)
SA (loses tiebreaker for division, put behind division winners, loses tiebreaker to POR)

Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....
BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!!

And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!

by blazer91 on Apr 14, 2009 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks.

The BEdger previously known as BR7formvp.

by L-TrainFTW! on Apr 14, 2009 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I DON'T WANT TO PLAY HOUSTON!!! I WANT HOME COURT AND I WANT TO KICK SAN ANTONIO'S BLUBBERY BOTTOMS...

I INSIST ON HAVING MY WAY!!!

The 6 teams involved are hereby instructed to comply with my demands.

Thank you.

Pontiff of the Pryz for Prez Posse...

by timbo on Apr 15, 2009 8:53 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

ESPN has a nice write up

Western Conference
• Lakers are the #1 seed
• Nuggets (currently #2)
   Clinch #2 with win or HOU loss
   Clinch #3 with loss and HOU win
• Rockets (currently #3)
   Clinch #2 with win and DEN loss
   Clinch #3 with win and DEN win
   Clinch #3 with loss and POR and SA losses
   Clinch #4 with loss and POR win and SA loss
   Clinch #4 with loss and SA win and POR loss
   Clinch #5 with loss and POR and SA wins
• Blazers (currently #4)
   Clinch #3 with win and HOU and SA losses
   Clinch #4 with win and HOU win
   Clinch #4 with win and SA win
   Clinch #4 with loss and SA loss
   Clinch #5 with loss and SA win
• Spurs (currently #5)
   Clinch #3 with win and HOU loss
   Clinch #4 with win and HOU win and POR loss
   Clinch #5 with win and HOU and POR wins
   Clinch #5 with loss
• Hornets (currently #6)
   Clinch #6 with win or DAL loss
   Clinch #7 with loss and DAL win
• Mavericks (currently #7)
   Clinch #6 with win and NO loss
   Clinch #7 with loss or NO win
• Jazz are #8

I hope I can get a bunch of championships, like 15. " - Greg Oden

by mxpx5678 on Apr 15, 2009 10:03 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Why does the tiebreak rules on NBA.com say the Blazers can still be #2 seed?

New here and a UW grad, so a third year recruit to blazer nation. Nba.com has the tiebreak rules at http://www.nba.com/statistics/playoff_picture.html – and my read says the Blazers get the number 2 seed if Portland and the Spurs win and Houston loses.

It specifically says to use paragraph ‘b’ when there are more than two teams tied. Number (2) of ‘b’ says ‘if all tied teams’ are in the same division thereby saying that once again paragraph ‘b’ is to be used in all cases involving three or more teams of the same record regardless of division.

It is quite clear from that language that division record of Denver and Portland do not matter one bit, because if you follow the rules, the first tiebreaker for determining division winner is the best record among against all the tied teams involved. When you follow the guidelines in paragraph ©, it turns out that if there is a three or four way tie then Portland is the Division winner no matter what – it is only when Denver and Portland are the only ones with the same record does Denver become division winner.

Additionally, the guidelines state that in a three way or more tie as far as records, the team with the best records against the other tied teams gets the best playoff position, and the second best team gets the second.

Hence, it shows in the case of a Denver, Houston, Portland tie, Houston has the #2 seed, Portland #3. It is the same if all four teams tie. In the case of a Denver, Portland, San Antonio tie, then Portland has #2 and San Antonio has #3.

by RedGold on Apr 15, 2009 10:33 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

They are wrong.

I hope I can get a bunch of championships, like 15. " - Greg Oden

by mxpx5678 on Apr 15, 2009 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dave----

Also just answered this in the playoff seeding update.

That NBA.com thing
is screwed. In general I’ve found them to be the WORST source of information about this stuff, which is ironic.

Either that or both the Blazers and I independently came up with the same completely wrong answers.

Here is the part that’s funky about the NBA.com link. In the upper part of the explanation they list "(1) Division leader wins ties from team not leading a division." Then they omit that criterion completely from their tiebreaker list in parts "a." and "b." below. Unless the NBA just changed their rules back without telling anybody, that’s wrong.

Their explanation just above parts "a." and "b." is also confusing, as they state "Ties for playoff positions (including division winners) will be broken…" What they mean here, I’m sure, is "Ties for playoff positions (including ties to DETERMINE division winners) will be broken…" Their wording leaves ambiguity as to whether they mean that division winners are subject to these tiebreakers when facing non-division-winners. Again, that’s not the case as far as I know, or anyone else authoritative I’ve heard from.

There should be a big, fat "(1)" on top of both of those lists that says, "Division winners win ties over non-division winners." Every other criteria should be moved down one number.

As far as I understand things, their paragraph "d." is correct. Homecourt advantage ties will be broken the same way as seeding ties. That means if a Team A is seeded higher than Team B BECAUSE OF A TIEBREAKER it will also have homecourt over Team B should they meet.

—Dave

I hope I can get a bunch of championships, like 15. " - Greg Oden

by mxpx5678 on Apr 15, 2009 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Even then that means Portland gets higher seeding.

Say it’s a four way tie at 54-28, then the rules say you have to use paragraph (b). If you interpret the rules to say that Denver gets to be division winner because there are only two teams tied atop the NW, the guidelines still say to determine playoff position you have to use paragraph (b).

According to the first tiebreak in paragraph (b) Denver is 5-6, Portland 6-5, Houston 7-4 and San Antonio 4-7. Following the guideline rules in any 3-way or 4-way tie Portland must be seeded higher than Denver because we always have the better record.

by RedGold on Apr 15, 2009 10:44 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

figuring it out

If Denver, Portland, Houston all are 54-28, then Houston is #2, Portland #3, Denver #4 – if Denver and Portland would meet in WCF, then Denver would have homecourt pursuant to paragraph (d).

If Denver, San Antonio and Portland were all 54-28, then Portland is #2, San Antonio #3 and Denver #4, once again Denver would have homecourt over Portland if they should meet.

If all four teams are tied, then Houston is #2, Portland #3, Denver #4.

by RedGold on Apr 15, 2009 10:47 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs