FOR ALL YOU NAYSAYERS OUT THERE, DREAM of 54 (my prediction from midseason) is STILL ALIVE!!!

Everything has held to form the last couple days, other than the 8 seed Jazz losing again, but really, who cares about the Jazz at this point?

 SO FAR SO GOOD

Just handle your business boys, and the future looks rosy, just need to win out to get homecourt, and a loss by BOTH Houston and San Antonio gives Portland the THREE SEED.  I said THREE SEED!!!

Further, a loss by Denver tonight and a Houston loss in one of its final games gives Portland the 2 SEED if it wins out!!!

Here's how the possibilities shake out:

PROJECTED FINAL STANDINGS if all else holds to projections:

(see above)

PAY NO ATTENTION TO OREGONLIVE OR ESPN PROJECTIONS TODAY:

Unless something changes with a division loss by Houston and an out-of division loss to Golden State by San Antonio, Houston holds the eventual tiebreaker over SA based on respective records vs. Western playoff teams (pay no attention to ESPN today, which only deals with "if the season ended today" tiebreakers, which won't apply when both Houston and SA have played an equal number of division games at the end of the season, or oregonlive.com, where Geoffrey Arnold was apparently drinking while putting out his playoff tiebreaker "explanation").  That means that the only way Portland loses out on homecourt, then is:

1) if it falls behind both Houston and San Antonio, or

2) if San Antonio wins the division and Portland and Houston end up tied behind SA, or

3) If all three teams lose a game, and San Antonio ends up tied for the division with Houston, but Houston loses another division game while San Antonio does not, then San Antonio wins the division via this first division tiebreaker and Houston wins the 4 seed by virtue of its tiebreaker over Portland.

KEY REMAINING GAMES BOLDED BELOW

DENVER

(current:  53-27)  (projected:  54-28)

(2 seed)

• Mon, Apr 13 Sacramento W (NEED TO BE A SAC. FAN!!!)
• Wed, Apr 15 at Portland L

HOUSTON

(current:  52-28)  (projected:  53-29) 

(3 seed)

• Mon, Apr 13 New Orleans W (lost to them once already)
• Wed, Apr 15 at Dallas L (EXPECTED loss)

PORTLAND

(current:  52-28)  (projected:  54-28)

(4 seed) (technically 5 today, but not really)

• Mon, Apr 13 Oklahoma City W
• Wed, Apr 15 Denver W (Denver may rest guys if they clinch)

SAN ANTONIO

(current:  52-28)  (projected:  54-28) 

(5 seed) (technically 3 today, but not really)

• Mon, Apr 13 at Golden State W  (2d of back to back)
• Wed, Apr 15 New Orleans W  (already lost to NO TWICE)

NEW ORLEANS

(current:  49-31)  (projected:  49-33)

(6 seed)

• Mon, Apr 13 at Houston L (beat them ONCE already)
• Wed, Apr 15 at San Antonio L (beat them TWICE already)

DALLAS

(current:  48-32)  (projected:  50-32) 

(7 seed)

• Mon, Apr 13 Minnesota W 
• Wed, Apr 15 Houston W

UTAH

(current:  47-33)  (projected:  48-34) 

(8 seed)

• Mon, Apr 13 LA Clippers W
• Tue, Apr 14 at LA Lakers L

If Portland wins out, the 4 spot is ours.  Simple enough, right?

That said, we are HUGE New Orleans fans at this point, as they cannot catch Portland for the five seed.  On the other hand, New Orleans plays both Houston and San Antonio, and has had some success against those clubs.  NO Winning its game vs. San Antonio would help Portland a lot, as it means Portland would have homecourt in the first round, even if it drops a game.  NO wins vs. BOTH SA and Houston (unlikely), and I'll take Chris Paul out to dinner.

Wish list now?  New Orleans beats San Antonio or BOTH of the Texas teams, and Sacramento SOMEHOW, SOME WAY, by SOME MIRACLE. beats Denver on Monday, setting up a showdown for the Division on Wednesday if Portland take care of its business with OKC tonight.  Hey, stranger things have ALREADY happened!