Seeding Philosophy

by Dave on Apr 13, 2009 10:04 AM PDT

Several folks have e-mailed and asked which team I, personally, would prefer to see the Blazers face in the post-season. Usually the inquiry is followed by suggestions of who we might want to root for or against among our close competitors in the West.

To me, this is pretty simple: You root for the Blazers to win. You root for everybody else near them to lose. The best single outcome tonight, besides the Blazers winning of course, would be the Nuggets losing to the Kings. That would mean the Northwest Divisionand its attendant tie-breaking mojo was within Portland's reach. It would also mean the highest possible remaining seeds stayed within Portland's reach. What's more, Blazer fans could then begin talking about potential homecourt advantage in the second round as well as the first.

The real problem with wishing for an opponent is that they usually kick your butt after your wish comes true. Part of it may be karma or the fickleness of the basketball gods, but there's a foundation behind it as well. If you have to juke and shimmy to try and make it though the NBA playoffs you're not going to make it through the NBA playoffs. You can bet right now the L*kers and Cavaliers are saying, "Bring it on! We don't care who we have to play." The Rockets, Nuggets, Celtics, and Magic are going to say the same thing if/when they get their high seeds settled. Some of them may have qualms about the teams above them in the standings, but the seeding system takes care of that, at least in the first round. If you have to worry about getting a good matchup below you to start out, your team probably isn't destined for a long stay.

Portland may not end up making a long run in the playoffs this year no matter where they end up. In reality all of these teams are packed together so tightly that the seeding isn't necessarily going to show clear superiority. But if you have a chance to get a 2nd seed in the West, you get the 2nd seed and then you walk that walk like you were meant to be there.

The truth is, we don't know how the 2-5 seeds or the 6-8 seeds are going to shake out right now. We'll know more after tonight's games. For now, the Blazers winning and everybody else losing is the way to go.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

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Comments

GO KINGS

bayless leaves over my dead body

by thomasikehara on Apr 13, 2009 10:09 AM PDT reply actions

ima rockets fan

GO KINGS!!!

u got all spurs, rockets, blazers fans behind u

as far as SAC fans – i think they want the kings to lose so they get more lottery balls

by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Apr 13, 2009 10:17 AM PDT reply actions

Dave, your call to action contradicts

your statement about juking and shimmying. The Blazers are playing well now and are playing with more confidence than Bruce Springsteen at a cougar convention. I honestly don’t care who they play in the first round.

by MiledAnimal on Apr 13, 2009 10:49 AM PDT reply actions

Juking and shimmying

means wanting outcomes that on the surface are unfavorable, but people think they will work out better anyway. Like a loss being good. Wanting to get a higher seed because you win and the guy competing with you for that spot loses is straightforward, and really the basis of the whole game. From Day One we’ve wanted Portland to win more games than other people win, eh?

—Dave

by Dave on Apr 13, 2009 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions

So you're saying I actually agree with you?

I think I’ve just been juked and shimmied.

by MiledAnimal on Apr 13, 2009 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions

77 team only had 1st round at home...

Chicago-home.
Nugettets- away
Lakers-Swept
76’erz-game 5 baybeeeeee

"The match in Los Angeles is a good opportunity to begin to demonstrate that we want to make war." Rudy Fernández (translated)

by G_dubs on Apr 13, 2009 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions

Kevin Martin hasn't played

in the last 6 games anyway, so whether or not he’s technically out for the season is inconsequential at this point.

by Lance Uppercut on Apr 13, 2009 10:56 AM PDT reply actions

Knowing for sure

that your guy isn’t coming back and that you’re left to the wolves in this lame duck season can’t be pleasant. But you’re probably right as far as on-court effect.

—Dave

by Dave on Apr 13, 2009 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions

I can't see the kings winning after last night

Thats got to be so rough on a losing team.

by rmcdougall on Apr 13, 2009 11:01 AM PDT reply actions

Un rec

Go Kings!!!!!

"The match in Los Angeles is a good opportunity to begin to demonstrate that we want to make war." Rudy Fernández (translated)

by G_dubs on Apr 13, 2009 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions

Cautionary tale

I grew up a Hawks fan. In 1988-89 the Hawks went 52-30 (this was the ambitious but ill-fated ’Nique-Moses Malone-Reggie Theus experiment) and got, I think, the 4th seed. We fans were angling for a matchup with Milwaukee because the Hawks convincingly swept the Bucks 6-0 (fewer teams in the league then) during the regular season. The Hawks did indeed draw the Bucks and everybody was talking about how they might be able to upset the Pistons in the 2nd round. A victory over Milwaukee was a given, right?

Wrong. The Bucks beat the Hawks 3-2, winning the decisive Game 5 in Atlanta. I was at the game and still can’t believe that the dagger to the Hawks’ season was a 3-pt shot by Paul Mokeski, of all people.

Point is this: Don’t worry about who the Blazers play in the playoffs. The only thing to worry about is that the Blazers win their final 2 games and grab homecourt for as many rounds as possible. If we draw Dallas or Houston, our lack of success against them in the regular season doesn’t necessarily translate to a lack of success next week. Conversely, drawing San Antonio or New Orleans won’t necessarily translate to a cakewalk for us simply because those teams haven’t been at their best lately. Everything changes come Saturday.

In any case, we should feel very confident because our pt. differential (a reliable measure for predicting playoff success is 4.8, the second best in the West after the Lakers). Our guys are young but they’re well-coached, don’t panic when they fall behind and have a guy who can take over late when buckets are needed. I like our chances.

Hit it. Yes he did. Ohhhh yeah.

by Badalona Baddie on Apr 13, 2009 11:02 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs

Rec

"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii

by 92wastheyear on Apr 13, 2009 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions

Paul Mokeski?

I’m so sorry – Elgin

Blazers win BDL 2 on 2 tournament!
Skeets: i’ll close it down now … congrats. you bastards

by 22baylor on Apr 13, 2009 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions

Thank you.

Playoffs vs reular season? Fuhgitabouuutit!

"The match in Los Angeles is a good opportunity to begin to demonstrate that we want to make war." Rudy Fernández (translated)

by G_dubs on Apr 13, 2009 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions

REC

by 5212872 on Apr 13, 2009 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions

worst case scenario is Portland as the 5 seed with Houston as the 4 seed

I would rather play SA w/o homecourt than Houston with homecourt.

Winning a division title would be amazing. Relying on Sac to make it happen is not ideal.

by jksnake99 on Apr 13, 2009 11:03 AM PDT reply actions

Portland is so highly seeded because

the busted so much tail in the beginning of the year when they had that horrible schedule. That work put in then helped them nose out several teams that I think are better. Looking at Utah and NO. It’d be mostly luck for the Blazers to get out of the first round, but man these guys certainly do excel at making their own luck.

Subject 24 will be tranquilized and carted back to Hollywood for further examinations.

by pxilpooshr on Apr 13, 2009 11:08 AM PDT reply actions

As far as I see it, tonight is a win-win for the Blazers, assuming they beat the ex-Sonics.

1. If Denver loses, we play them on Wed. for the division title.
2. If Denver wins, they’re unlikely to bring nearly as much intensity to Wed.’s game. In fact, Karl might rest his starters.

Either way it’s promising for us.

Hit it. Yes he did. Ohhhh yeah.

by Badalona Baddie on Apr 13, 2009 11:23 AM PDT reply actions

Man I am with you

We win they lose is the way to look at it!

I posted that bring them on line and got accused of being everything from a Laker fan to George Bush,,,both things i found to be very insulting.

But really, in sports, you want to play and beat the best, the rest will take of itself.

thank you Dave!

Support those in crisis in Portland www.give10tell10.org

by PDXBuckeye on Apr 13, 2009 1:08 PM PDT reply actions

We do not want pity applause

Please keep your rooting off of Sactown Royalty. This season has been hard enough without other fans showing up to feign actual interest in our team. You don’t care about the Kings. Don’t insult us by pretending you do in our own refuge. We don’t want you at StR.

by Tom Ziller on Apr 13, 2009 3:47 PM PDT reply actions

Point taken, Tom, but keep in mind

that there are a lot of Blazer fans like me who consider the Kings their #2 team. I live in the Bay Area, listen to KHTK every commute, have followed the Kings since 1993 or so, occasionally visit Sacramento, have been to a Kings game or two, comment occasionally on SacTown Royalty, and so on. There are a lot of similarities between Portland and Sacramento and Blazer and King fans. And even if it serves our purposes for the Kings to beat the Nuggets, why not have some fun with it? You think you’re the only NBA fans whose team has had a hard year? Lighten-up.

by MiledAnimal on Apr 13, 2009 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions

Well

We have two games left to enjoy our team until next October. It’d be nice if we were allowed to do it our way.

by Tom Ziller on Apr 13, 2009 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions

In the words of the great Col. Andy Tanner

All that hate is gonna burn you up kid.

by tominhawaii on Apr 13, 2009 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions

Of course we dontcare about your league worst team!

Now get off your pitty pot and be a spoiler and win!!!!!

"The match in Los Angeles is a good opportunity to begin to demonstrate that we want to make war." Rudy Fernández (translated)

by G_dubs on Apr 13, 2009 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions

I do like Geoff tho.

Class dude for the most part. Just sayin

"The match in Los Angeles is a good opportunity to begin to demonstrate that we want to make war." Rudy Fernández (translated)

by G_dubs on Apr 13, 2009 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm sorry?

I love the work you do for AOL Fanhouse; I read StR about once a week just to peruse your posts because I find them both highly informative and highly entertaining.

So why the peckish provincialism? I’m not just a Blazers fan, just as you’re not just a Kings fan. Nobody who spends as much time reading about the NBA as I do or as much time reading/writing/researching about the NBA as you do is solely devoted to just one team.

I’m an NBA fan, Ziller, much as I suspect you are. And I think it’s great when a team with likable youngsters and a front office devoted to doing things the right way (like, say, Portland or Sacramento) has success, whether it be in one game or for the season, because it vindicates my utter distaste for the Whitsitt years and think that it’s overall a great thing for the league when teams that play “the right way” win.

You think slamming the metaphorical door to your blog and throwing up two middle fingers to anybody and everybody who isn’t steeped in Sacramento purple makes you a good ambassador for the team? You think that’s a good way to make somebody think, “Hey, you know what? That Sacramento squad sure has a lot going for it…maybe I’ll watch them a little more closely, see what’s up”?

Heaven forbid anybody who’s not a Krazy Kings Fan try to carry on conversations on your site, right? Learn a little bit more about an enjoyable bunch that reminds 95% of the posters here of the Blazers three years ago, so it’s a team we’re inclined to like already? Way to be, brother. Protectionist thinking in a global age doesn’t work in economics or NBA blog fiefdoms. I would expect better from so accomplished and intelligent a basketball mind.

The Michael Ruffin of BlazersEdge, cuz Amlmart said so.

by BlazersOrBust on Apr 13, 2009 7:22 PM PDT up reply actions