Blazers' best lineup?
by kickbrass on Apr 12, 2009 7:46 AM PDT
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PrintNow that the Blazers have been playing their best basketball in nearly a decade, some patterns about this particular team are emerging.
First of all, it looks pretty clear that we're going to see a 9-man rotation for the playoffs. Sorry, Channing and Jerryd, you're going to have to wait until next year. Sergio will get spot minutes in the 2nd and 4th quarter along with Greg and Trout, while Rudy will play with the bench and finish out the game with the starters (replacing Batum in the starting lineup).
This strategy makes a lot of sense to me, as it maximizes the capabilities of those on the court. This diagram from PopcornMachine is a nice visual aid:
The Clippers game is a pretty clear example that our best lineup (the one that outscored them by 30 throughout the game) was Steve Blake, Rudy Fernandez, Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and Joel Przybilla. That's the unit that finished out the 4th when the bench was struggling and gave up a run to the Clips.
We have tried some other lineup permutations throughout the season that have been pretty effective, including Blake/Roy/Trout/LMA/Przy and Blake/Roy/Trout/LMA/GO. But I have to say I like what I'm seeing if this is the crunch time lineup Nate is going to go with in the playoffs.
What do you think?
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Match-ups
I can’t give a single answer, because it is all about match ups. Rudy is great for spacing, but sometimes struggles when he has to guard bigger stronger 3s. Trout is often more effective scoring against 4s, but can’t guard someone like Odom. I think it is a great discussion, but I think we need to wait to see who is our first-round opponent.
by upper left corner on Apr 12, 2009 8:11 AM PDT reply actions
You are right
I wouldn’t use one night’s game as the all-time answer for everything. Each opponent is different.
Sticking up for Travis Outlaw since 2008.
gah
And, depending whether we need Batum to lock down someone
Nate will try to use whoever has it going late. Rudy has had it going, so Nate has stayed with him. Trout struggled from the field last night, so we did not see him much late. The Clips kind of lock down themselves, offensively, so we didn’t need Batum late.
I see some matchups where Nate might start Rudy. Roy can guard some threes, if Rudy can pick up the opposing SG.
Rudy/Roy/Batum/Aldridge/Oden
Truth never was or can be propagated by fire and sword - Albert Gallatin
Roy/Rudy/Outlaw/Aldridge/Oden
But I like to be here. Oh, I like it a lot! Said the Cat in the Hat. To the fish in the pot.
by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Apr 12, 2009 8:55 AM PDT reply actions
Pick your poison...
who you gonna contain?
Uh oh, there’s 4 other guys who can score. So sorry.
But I like to be here. Oh, I like it a lot! Said the Cat in the Hat. To the fish in the pot.
by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Apr 12, 2009 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions
I second...
this is the crunch time lineup. When they double Roy, Outlaw is who they want with the ball because he is the next most capable of getting his own shot.
Notice I didn’t say get his own GOOD shot.
" if you don't like it, you can shove it
but you don't like it, you love it!"
- Weezer (Red Album)
by halfasiansensation on Apr 12, 2009 9:10 AM PDT reply actions
I was refering to ygtmyft lineup
" if you don't like it, you can shove it
but you don't like it, you love it!"
- Weezer (Red Album)
by halfasiansensation on Apr 12, 2009 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions
the crunch time lineup...
that’s what I was calling it while typing it… I should’ve put that in.
The CTL.
But I like to be here. Oh, I like it a lot! Said the Cat in the Hat. To the fish in the pot.
by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Apr 12, 2009 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm not sold on Roy at the point
Neither is Nate, apparently, as Blake and Roy are usually on the floor together in the 4th.
There are other reasons for this...
Roy nearly always brings up the ball with only a few minutes to go, and even when he doesn’t, he’ll quickly be given the ball out top to setup the play.
Blake is out there because he’s lethal from 3 and can spread the court. He doesn’t really play the point in the 4th.
But I like to be here. Oh, I like it a lot! Said the Cat in the Hat. To the fish in the pot.
by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Apr 12, 2009 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
The problem with Roy at the point
Is that he mostly just ends up running plays for himself. The other players will just end up standing around watching Roy, an I think the lack of a balanced team offense hurts the team.
If by running plays for himself...
you mean slashing and kicking to wide open shooters or hitting game winners, then yeah, I’d say that’s a problem… for the other team.
The thing is, most teams can’t stop Roy when he’s isolated. He’s got too many moves and near total control of the situation. This results in double and triple teams, leaving our guys wide open for uncontested jumpers. This is the same thing that happens with LeBron James, which is why as a small forward he averages nearly 8 assists per game.
To run the whole game like this would be ugly and a bad idea… Roy would surely wear down and we wouldn’t really get our other big contributors doing their thing (think LMA down low in the 1st quarter of every game).
However, in crunch time we resort to this scheme for a reason… it’s highly effective and it wins games.
But I like to be here. Oh, I like it a lot! Said the Cat in the Hat. To the fish in the pot.
by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Apr 12, 2009 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions
Roy is very good at running isolation plays
But I still think it is important to have variety in the types of plays that are being run. If you run any play enough times in a row, the other team is going to get really good at stopping it.
It’s not like there aren’t any ways to stop Roy. Most defenders can’t stop Roy 1-on-1, but there are a few who can. Some teams have also had success double teaming Roy before the start of his drive. Zone defenses are another option that can be used against Roy isolation plays. You can also back of Roy and try to force him to beat you by taking outside shots. The Roy isolation is just like any other play: if you use it too much the defense will develop better ways of stopping it and it will start to lose effectiveness.
yup
We saw a lot of early double-teams from LA the other night and without Blake in there as a safety valve to run the offense I think we would have been in trouble.
I think Blake being out there
is more of a function of how well he is playing currently, not a reflection on Brandons PG play.
While I am fully engaged in the moment,
I can’t keep myself from peeking into next season just a little. So welcome back Webby.
An improved backup to Steve will come. I think that continued experience for both Sergio and Jerryd is sufficient. And I wonder if the improved backup is ten minutes a night of Roy/Rudy backcourt. I think that becomes the norm.
Looking at that awesome chart, nice share Kickbrass!, I see LMA dropping down to 35 or 36 mins a night, Steve dropping into the 32 or 33 range, Batum maybe even going up a little, say 16 or 18?, Brandon averaging 35 or 36 with half of it at PG, Joel and Greg sharing 48 somehow, and Rudy at 30. That leaves, what, a dozen at the 4 and 30 at the 3? So 20ish each for Travis and Martell? And zero for JB and Surge?
So next year’s best line ups?
Roy/LMA/Pryzoden of course. My guess is our best will be built around Roy/Rudy/LMA/and The Gang of two at Center. I think Rudy’s second year improvement will force Nate to find ways to put him onto the court 30 minutes a night.
So then choose big or small. Add either a PG or a SF.
Roy/ Rudy/ MarteNic/ LMA/ Pryzoden or Steve/ Roy/ Rudy/ LMA/ TheCommittee.
Nice problems.
Hmmm.
Bedge or go home.
goes to show
how tricky it will be to fit both Travis and Martell into the lineup next season. I have a feeling that one of them’s going to have to go this summer. And I agree that we’ll be bringing in a PG, I just think that it will be a starter and we’ll have Blake as a backup, which sadly means no minutes again for Sergio or Bayless, one of whom will probably have to be traded this summer as well.
All of our most prolific 5 man units...
http://www.82games.com/0809/0809POR2.HTM
Top 7 5-Man-Units By Per 48 Minute Stats (50 minutes minimum)
Rank – Lineup (+/- Per 48 Minutes) —Reason or Use—
- - Rodriguez-Fernandez-Outlaw-Aldridge-Przybilla (+18.8)
—Only Acceptable Roy Free Lineup— - - Blake-Roy-Batum-Aldridge-Przybilla (+18.9)
—Starters— - - Blake-Roy-Outlaw-Aldridge-Oden (+21.2)
—Przybilla Foul Trouble— - - Blake-Fernandez-Roy-Aldridge-Przybilla (+22.5)
—Oden Foul Trouble— - - Blake-Roy-Batum-Outlaw-Aldridge (+24.0)
—Small Ball— - - Blake-Fernandez-Roy-Outlaw-Przybilla (+24.3)
—Acceptable Aldridge Free Lineup #2— - - Rodriguez-Fernandez-Roy-Outlaw-Oden (+29.6)
—Acceptable Aldridge Free Lineup #1—
Actual
http://www.82games.com/0809/0809POR2.HTM
Top 7 5-Man-Units By Per 48 Minute Stats (50 minutes minimum)
Rank – Lineup (+/- Per 48 Minutes) —Reason or Use—
7. – Rodriguez-Fernandez-Outlaw-Aldridge-Przybilla (18.8) —Only Acceptable Roy Free Lineup—
6. – Blake-Roy-Batum-Aldridge-Przybilla (18.9) —Starters—
5. – Blake-Roy-Outlaw-Aldridge-Oden (21.2) —Przybilla Foul Trouble—
4. – Blake-Fernandez-Roy-Aldridge-Przybilla (22.5) —Oden Foul Trouble—
3. – Blake-Roy-Batum-Outlaw-Aldridge (24.0) —Small Ball—
2. – Blake-Fernandez-Roy-Outlaw-Przybilla (24.3) —Acceptable Aldridge Free Lineup #2—
1. – Rodriguez-Fernandez-Roy-Outlaw-Oden (+29.6) —Acceptable Aldridge Free Lineup #1—
sergio/blake/jerryd/rudy/roy
go small or go home
"There are a few teams you have to watch out for in the fourth quarter."
"Yeah, but Portland definitely is not one of them."
-New Orleans Hornets broadcasters at the end of the third quarter with the Hornets leading 74-59. Portland later ends up winning 97-89.
"They don't mind him shooting that shot at all. Rudy Fernandez is not that great of a 3pt shooter."
-New Orleans Hornets broadcasters right after a Rudy Fernandez missed 3pter. Rudy Fernandez finished the game with three 3pters on six attempts.
by Tofu Anonymous on Apr 12, 2009 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions
haha
I can’t imagine the turnoverlarity of those guys attempting to run the offense. Only two of those guys can dribble and only one could occasionally bring the ball up-court.
but a “Three Towers” lineup would be good; Przybilla, Oden, Aldridge, Roy and either Blake or even Outlaw could be an effective lineup.
M, period. Fresh, comma.
Nate should use the Twin Towers more.
I want to see Nate roll out Greg+Joel against the Leakers when they try to go really big on us.
It depends on the situation....
In general: Roy needs to be there, obviously. And LMA. And Blake.
Pryz plays more secure defense and gets more rebounds; if you need late offense, Oden is better.
If you need one shot, Travis needs to be there. If you need defensive stops, Nic needs to be there. If Travis can’t hit the broad side of a barn (see: Clippers, Los Angeles), then Rudy works find.
In no case should Sergio or Channing Frye smell the floor in the second half of the 4th quarter unless you are “closing out” a 30 point win.
Pontiff of the Pryz for Prez Posse...
What was really interesting about those graphs
For all the players in the Portland lineup there were ups and downs when they were inserted, except every time Sergio came in our performance shot downward. Now it’s a 3 game sample but even when Sergio is playing well it looks like the other team is out scoring us.
That has Blake at +25 for the last game; NBA.com (cited by Luftman on air) had him at +33.
I think +25 is probably right but am too lazy to look at the graph again.
I think Blake has to give the “game ball” back to Michael Holton now though…
Pontiff of the Pryz for Prez Posse...
That first half of the 4th Q against the Clips (graph above) was a train wreck.
Thank god Nate went for a complete redeal, bringing in Blake, Rudy, and Pryzzy… That was a game-saving coaching move.
Pontiff of the Pryz for Prez Posse...
The game winning substitution was Blake, Aldridge, Przybilla replacing Sergio, Outlaw, Oden
Rudy and Roy were already in the game before that substitution, but they were struggling because Outlaw and Oden weren’t able to control the paint and Sergio was ineffectual running the offense.
I really like Brandon going out at the beginning quarter transitions
and LaMarcus staying until he’s back, then getting a blow.
I think that there have been a series of subtle in flight adjustments this season that have gone without much discussion on our part. Because by and large they have been very successful and elegant in execution.Watching Rambis do nearly nothing and blunder along the way, I can’t wait for the TY Nate post. You there BB?
Bedge or go home.
not sure i have a favorite line up
what is exciting about this group is their general flexibilty, which is good since they are young and young guys tend to be a bit more streaky individually. there are nights when different rotations pay real dividends and nate seems to figure out what his best closing group is going to be…a few games back oden was having a strong night nate left him in to close it down, most nights he will likely turn to pryz, but the flexibility is the key to success.
Support those in crisis in Portland www.give10tell10.org
You beat me to the punch...
One of the strengths of the team is its ability to throw so many different combos on the court. Having everyone healthy (save Martell) at this point in the season is showing how lethal those options are.
Rudy and Blake have been getting more court time in the fourth because Travis hasn’t been hitting lately. Any combo of those three players in the corners while Roy is working his man at the top of the key has been effective. Add Aldridge with Oden or Joel setting the picks, what more could you ask for?
Roy and Aldridge with Joel or Oden and Rudy, Blake, or Travis, with Batum being used for defense…Isn’t this what we have been waiting for?
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
couple of guys behind me at the lakers game
were complaining that nate had not settled on a line up. i am glad he is willing to lean on who is hot and not ride down on somebody who is having a tough night…
Support those in crisis in Portland www.give10tell10.org
by PDXBuckeye on Apr 12, 2009 11:15 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
That's interesting because we have also seen the exact opposite criticism:
That Nate is too rigid with his substitution patterns, regardless of who is hot. I think he has progressed as the year has gone on and been more flexible to match the actual game.
It's spelled "PRZYBILLA."
vanillathrillagorillaprzybilla
by RenoBlazerFan on Apr 12, 2009 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
these guys criticized every player whenrever they touched the ball
and every substitution and every hand jesture made…it was actually very infuriating.. i am not exxagerating, every move, it was like we were winding down another 21 win season or something instead of beating the lakers in the hunt for a possible 2 seed with 3 games left…
i can’t complain with nate or the team, i know they aren’t perfect, but i am happy with the team from management on down and i go to cheer them on…the dudes behind me must be impossible to live/work with…
Support those in crisis in Portland www.give10tell10.org
me too
i mean we all do a bit a game time criticism, like ‘make a layup would ya’ after their 9th missed one the other night, but every moment of the action…grrrr
of course the funniest moment came when one of them while sergio was just dribbling at the top of the key, ’come on, pass the ball!" and before he finished the thought Rudy had just taken the reverse dunk off the assist from sergio, that did make me laugh…
Support those in crisis in Portland www.give10tell10.org
only one question
Is if you the best swingman on the team is Fernandez or Outlaw.
For my part, I’ll take Outlaw at the 3. Outlaw can create his own shots, plays better D, grabs boards, etc. He may not be as accurate a shooter as Fernandez, but I think he brings more consistent offensive energy – you never have to worry about him not getting involved or getting ‘lost’.
M, period. Fresh, comma.
Rudy is a better player than Outlaw
He really seems understand the game well, he is constantly communicating with the other Blazers and doing the little things to help the team run more smoothly. Compared to Outlaw, he is a better long-range shooter and a much better passer. I also think he is a better defensive player than Outlaw, due to having much better lateral quickness, better recognition of when to rotate, and he is better at getting in the passing lanes and causing turnovers. They don’t really play the same position, and Outlaw is obviously better if you need to rebound or defend big forwards, but overall the Blazers play significantly better when Fernandez is in the game than when Trout is.
I don’t think the opinion that Fernandez is a better defensive player is defensible in any way shape or form. Rudy’s defense amounts to more or less standing there and occasionally taking advantage of mistakes in the passing lanes. Outlaw can guard a 2, 3, or 4. The only type of player Fernandez is not a liability against is a spot up jump shooter. Heck, Fernandez couldn’t even guard himself, guys who move without the ball KILL Rudy.
M, period. Fresh, comma.
Outlaw is a better defender this year than he has ever been
But Rudy plays much better team defense, which is what I think trk is pointing out. Travis is only a good defender when he is motivated and focused. The truth is they both have their strengths and weaknesses on defense and it would depend on the opposing line-up who I would rather have on the floor.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
Not only his team defense
Rudy’s man-to-man defense is also pretty good if he is guarding a player who isn’t big enough to post him up. He is much quicker than Outlaw which helps him stay in front of smaller, quicker players. When guards try to penetrate against Outlaw, they generally get around him without any trouble and the bigs are forced to try and clean up the mess; when they try to get past Rudy he is often able keep in front of them, and even when he doesn’t he is usually able to stay close to them and challenge their shots from behind. Sometimes when opponents try to run a pick-and-roll Rudy will beat his man to the pick and be able to go over the pick, something that I have rarely seen from any of the other Blazer players. Rudy gets a lot of steals and deflections, and he does it without gambling very much (Rudy would gamble more at the start of the season, but does so much less often now). Rudy also has a low foul rate and doesn’t commit many stupid fouls (though he did have a few against Golden State).
Rudy does have some flaws on defense. He struggles against bigger, stronger players who can post him up. He doesn’t have the length that Outlaw or Batum have, so he will never be able to block as many shots as they do. He isn’t great at boxing out for rebounds (he is good about remembering to try to box out most of the time, but he just isn’t big enough). He slips and falls down at a rate much higher than most players do. Rudy also has some trouble fighting though screens, but then so do all the Blazers and Outlaw is arguably the worst of them all in this regard.
It should be noted that out of all Blazer players, Rudy has the lowest opponent PER and lowest iFG%(measures the % of shots an opponent takes that are close to the basket). Rudy also has the second best oncourt/offcourt defensive rating (behind Przybilla; according to basketballvalue.com), and he has the second best oncourt/offcourt opposing team eFG% (again behind Przybilla).
I took a boatload of crap over the summer for saying Roy and Rudy would play together a lot
Usually when I was challenged on it, they would say I said both Roy and Rudy would start. I just said they would play together.
If I got on my nerves, it would bug me, that I’m always right.
Ty Tom.
It pleases me to no end to know that we got on your nerves.
Anyone blogging in the island sun gets on my nerves.
I am very jealous. But yeah, you’re the only one who’s always right now that Jscot has gone walkabout.
Bedge or go home.
It ticked me off
I don’t mind folks calling me on stuff, because I dish it out and therefore must take it. What got on my nerves were people saying I said what I said, when I said something else when I said it.
We really need to get the NBA to switch to 6 player lineups. Blazers would dominate.
Greg Oden = Robert Parish (HOF, 4x NBA champion, 9x NBA All-Star). The only other rookie with more than 500 points, 400 rebounds, and 65 blocks in under 1400 minutes played. Since 1946.
Segio/Roy/Rudy/TrOut/LMA
Funnier team to watch by far, and one of the most effective ones
Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition!
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