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Expanding On the Road Records of the West's Elite

After reading through a fanpost about the Blazers road record against the top west team being roughly equally as bad as every other team at the top of the west, I thought I'd investigate it further.  For me, the problem hasn't seemed to be that we've just been losing, but that we've been getting regularly blown out early in non-competitive games, as opposed to keeping it close throughout, which I'd assume the other "vet" teams have done.  Along those lines, using the game flows at popcornmachine.net, I decided to waste an hour going through each western conference team's road games and look at the max lead, max deficit, and final point differential, to get an idea of whether we've been more or competitive than other team's on the road.  Here's the data, with some snap analysis.  Enjoy.

Star-divide

First off, before I get into anything, it's shocking how rare a top western conference team beats another one on the road.  To put it in perspective, the last time it happened was when we beat NO (CP Groin game).  That's nearly a month and a half, which is ridiculous.  Strangely, WC teams have beaten the top east teams on the road a couple times in that span, just never a west team.

And without further discussion, here's the data for each team, in order of standings, saving the Blazers for last, though.  Each row refers to one game.  And the averages are shown in the final row.


LAL:

 


Max Lead Max Deficit Final

5 15 -7

5 14 -11

4 9 -4

5 11 -1

5 9 5

21 3 13

18 6 13

23 0 7

8 12 7

9 9 7
Averages 10.3 8.8 2.9


LA as the best road record among the top teams, but even then, this was all done at the start of the season.  Each of their last 4 games has been a loss.  Still, 8.8 as an average max deficit is by far the lowest, and 10.3 is the highest max lead so it's pretty clear they've fared the best on the road.  Still, their performance in the last 4 games is pretty similar to every other team listed here.  Also, the only team with a positive point differential in these games.

 

SA:

 


Max Lead Max Deficit Final

9 10 -5

1 29 -18

6 17 -8

12 6 10

11 4 6

2 21 -14

5 13 1

9 7 -7

7 11 7

24 2 17

0 20 -19

4 12 -1
Averages 7.5 12.6666667 -2.58333

SA's been the second best WC team on the road, although being blown out a couple times depresses their numbers some.  It's happened just enough to not write these games off as flukes, but they've had far more games that they haven't fallen far behind in than anyone but LA.

 

Denver:

 


Max Lead Max Deficit Final

8 15 -12

8 6 -2

7 12 -9

9 10 -7

9 12 -12

16 0 10

0 27 -14

21 3 10

3 14 -4
Averages 9 11 -4.44444

 

Another team that started off better than they've been playing recently, Denver's dropped their last 5 on the road.  Outside of getting blown out in the one game, though, they have a pretty low average deficit, so they're in most road games.

NO:

 


Max Lead Deficit Final

2 15 -14

5 16 -4

8 15 -13

7 9 7

9 33 -26

11 7 11

1 26 -5

16 7 15

4 17 -15

14 8 4

1 18 -9

16 0 13
Averages 7.833333 14.25 -3

 

Nothing too special here.  Their road record recently is a little better than most, but they've still fallen behind big in each of their last three games.  -3 is one of the better point differentials in the group, although being down at least 15 in over half of their games is a little ugly.  Still, not nearly as bad as some other teams.

Houston:


Max Lead Max Deficit Final

7 13 -7

0 9 -9

2 14 -10

14 5 -2

19 8 12

18 29 -29

3 10 -3

14 5 10
Averages 9.625 11.625 -4.75

Houston's actually been one of the better teams on the road.  They've been in all but one game they played, and even that blowout was kind of a wonky game where they were up 18 early and just collapsed.  Even if their road record doesn't show it, probably one of the more dangerous road teams.  Without that 29 point loss, they'd be second in point differential among this group behind LA.

Utah:


Lead Deficit Final

0 22 -14

1 24 -20

0 16 -9

12 11 -7

0 20 -13

2 16 -5

3 9 -2

9 30 -25
Averages 3.375 18.5 -11.875

Here's where it gets ugly.  Not only has Utah not won a game on the road, they've been regularly blown out and out of games.  18.5 is by far the worst average deficit and -11.8 is easily the worst point differential.  Not only that, they've trailed wire to wire in 3 of their last 5 games against these teams.  Blame it on injuries or whatever, but if any fans need to be shouting about their road record, it's jazz fans.

Dallas:


Max Lead Max Deficit Final

5 22 -16

3 17 -17

16 11 -7

5 29 -28

4 17 -2

7 32 -28

1 16 -9

10 8 8

12 12 -7

12 2 10

5 10 -3

23 4 17
Averages 8.583333 15 -6.83333

Also pretty ugly.  They've been down big in each of their last 7 games, and their numbers are being largely propped up by their early season success.  They seem to be fading fast here.

Phoenix:


Max Lead Deficit Final

3 28 -26

14 8 -6

12 5 -5

2 12 -5

0 23 -15

3 18 -13

9 17 -12

6 7 4
Averages 6.125 14.75 -9.75

Nothing too special here, although notable that half of their games have been blowouts.  A couple good showings recently, though, so they could be kind of the anti-mavs in this respect.

Portland:


Max Lead Max Deficit Final

4 18 -16

1 15 -15

7 18 -4

3 15 -5

8 20 8

9 19 -14

4 8 -8

2 17 -9

2 15 -10

5 7 -5

11 7 -7

8 14 -11

0 23 -20
Averages 4.923077 15.0769231 -8.9231

And now we get to us.  In our 13 road games, it's pretty distressing that we've been down at least 14 points in all but three of our games, and at least 15 in our last 6.  We're the second-worst both average lead and average deficit, and have the 3rd worst point differential, so it's clear that we're among the worst road teams in this pseudo-round robin set up.

Also, we have a fair boost in our numbers from the CP game being turned from a blowout into a solid win thanks to Antonio Daniels, so we could be 0-13 on the road instead.


While it's clear that none of the west's elite fares well on the road against each other, it's equally clear that we're one of the worst teams at it.  Us, Utah, and Phoenix have been significantly worse than the other 6 teams, so it's clear that whatever we're doing against these teams isn't working, and that we regularly fall behind big in these games.

Aside from that, make of it what you will.

12 recs  |  Comment 20 comments

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love the post...

 
I wonder….
in the games that we went down big, ….how many of em did we get the score close?

And ??? I’m too dumb to ask the question I want, but …. is there brownie points for fighting back into games…vs how close the other teams get back into em?

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.

by faith on Mar 6, 2009 8:09 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

To be honest, the data is there

but for it to be meaningful, you’d really have to look at it for every game, which would be a major time suck and just an overall pain.

As to your question, I’d put as making the most of a bad situation. I’m sure KP2 or some other stat person has at one time put together odds for teams winning games based on how far they’re down at a certain point. For example, I think the odds are something like only 20% of teams that are down 5 with 6 minutes left win, so while it’s nice to fight back and get close, you want to avoid that situation to begin with.

I hesitate to give too much credit for fighting back in some of these games, because a lot of it has to do with teams taking their foots off the gas instead of purely based on one team playing a whole lot better. Still, better than nothing.

by Royster on Mar 6, 2009 8:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

cool...

and thanks for the drop of knowledge.

respect.

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.

by faith on Mar 6, 2009 11:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That's a nice rundown

I’m not sure what it all means either, but it is nice to have the broader perspective relative to the rest of the west, than to just keep hearing “Portland is 1-12 against the top 9 in the west…..they can’t win on the road”….blah blah blah…that you seem to get from every media outlet

by SalemORguy on Mar 6, 2009 8:13 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

This might actually be a worse indicator for teams other than Portland

At home or on the road the Blazers have often fallen behind (and by large margins). So the point differential (albeit worse here than the norm) is probably consistent with the tendency to fall behind regardless of where the game is being played.

by TPfor3 on Mar 6, 2009 10:28 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Good work

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 7, 2009 2:12 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Interesting.

Gotta say the Lakers are odds-on favorites this year to win the West, eh?

Pontiff of the Pryz for Prez Posse...

by timbo on Mar 7, 2009 8:39 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

next years goal:

Win more road games.

Give the man his "M"!!!

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Mar 7, 2009 11:28 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

new name:

you’vegottowinyourroadgames ?

by teenagemutantninjabayless on Mar 8, 2009 9:11 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Great work - one suggestion

Look at the Texas teams again exclusive of each other. I think you’ll find that Dallas and Houston are much closer to us, Phoenix, and Utah on the road when you factor out the games played within their home state.

Bottom line – yes, we stink on the road versus the WC elite, but so do a lot of other very good teams… therefore it is unfair to single us out in this regard.

MLB2PDX!!! (someday...)

by The Cactus Leaguer on Mar 7, 2009 1:50 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Looking at the Texas teams alone gives somewhat strange results

Houston has only played SA and Dallas away once each, and split those games with an average +4 point differential and never trailed by more than 5 in either game.

SA has split their away games with Dalas and only played Houston away once with a -5.67 average point differential, so far worse than their overall performance. Of course, this is largely due to getting blown out by houston at the start of the season. Their loss against Dallas was close.

Dallas has already played both Texas teams away twice and split them with an average +0.75 point differential, although it should be noted that they lost their last two away games against texas teams by an average of 12 points.

Taking out their Texas results from the overall results, SA improves to a point differential of -1.56, Houston drops big to -7.667 (mainly due to a small sample size and getting blownout in LA) and Dallas drops to -10.625.

On that, you could say that on long trips, Dallas is about as bad as us, but SA and Houston are still better. Still, that doesn’t factor in our closer proximity to Utah and Denver or us being in the same time zone as LA and Phoenix. Also, the fact still remains that three of the top 4 teams on the road in this group are LA, Denver and NO, who all have somewhat similar proximity issues to us.

by Royster on Mar 7, 2009 2:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Closer proximity?

Aren’t the Texas teams closer to Denver than we are? Aren’t they closer to Phoenix than we are to Utah or Denver? I don’t remember this stuff very well, but I didn’t think we could be considered in close proximity to any contenders, now that there aren’t contenders in Seattle or northern California.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 8, 2009 12:04 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough

kind of a throwaway point that I shouldn’t have put in there. We’re the most “remote” compared to most of the contenders, but the fact remains that of the 4 most “remote” teams, Denver, LA, Utah and us, Denver and LA still manage to be two of the top 4 teams in this sampling.

Without that one LA loss, their only road blowout, Houston’s “outside Texas” point differential is roughly the same, SA’s is better, and Dallas’s is worse, so without looking at previous years’ data, I’d say that distance has a much smaller effect than simply being in an opposing team’s arena. Even last year, we were terrible playing @Seattle when they were one of the worst teams in the league, and our success on the east coast this year would further indicate that “distance traveled” is relatively insignificant compared to the overall experience of being on the road and in hostile arenas.

by Royster on Mar 8, 2009 12:20 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Distance matters

on a back to back, when you are home one night and away the next. If you have to go all the way from Portland to Denver or Utah, you are going to get in pretty late.

Time zones also can matter, though I think not as much on the back to backs — normal routines are messed up on back to backs anyway, so if you shift one time zone, I doubt it matters that much.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 8, 2009 7:20 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

No doubt it does, to a point

but based on the extremely small sample size in this post, you can’t conclude that it does or doesn’t have all that much of an effect, whereas it seems pretty clear that just being on the road has a pretty significant effect.

Any home/away back to back will involve getting in pretty late, the question is, whether getting into town at 1 AM vs. getting in at midnight is a huge contributor compared to the act of having to grab your things and fly to begin with. If someone were to pull this data out over many seasons, though, and prove it one way or the other, I’d be really interested to see the results.

by Royster on Mar 8, 2009 8:58 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I can agree that

Time zones make a big difference, but when it comes to distance traveled, these flights are the difference between a two hour flight and a three or four hour flight. Sure, it might affect things a little, but I’m not convinced that one more hour on a plane is a huge deal.

by teenagemutantninjabayless on Mar 8, 2009 9:16 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

time zone shouldn't matter to the Blazers

they keep the same time regardless of their location, as per their sleep Dr.s’ recomendation.

Q: Do you feel the city of Portland still wants you?

A: I know this team does, the organization does. Everybody else, I don't worry about that. We worry about our family right here (in the locker room). I know I got their back and I know they're behind me.

by maid tu rek on Mar 9, 2009 1:18 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think it matters

on a back to back, when it is the difference between arriving at 1 a.m. (late, but reasonable) or 3 a.m. (very late, you are just going to be tired the next day no matter what).

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 10, 2009 12:27 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK, it tough on the road against the best. What's Ahead?

Of course, this is only one phase of the remaining schedule, but it certainly is a big one. Here are the number of remaining Road games the 9 west playoff contenders face against that same top 9, plus against Cleveland, Boston and Orlando:

Portland 3
New Orleans 3
San Antonio 3
LA 4
Dallas 5
Denver 5
Phoenix 5
Houston 7
Utah 8

LA and San Antonio are near sure things for the top two, and Phoenix is looking surer and surer to miss the playoffs altogether. So they really aren’t a big part of the playoff seeding battle at this juncture.

Of the remaining 6 teams fighting for seeding and home court advantage in Round 1, Houston and Utah incredibly both face more than a third of their remaining games against the best on the road, and Dallas has a tough row to hoe given its current inferior record. These factors will make it difficult for any of them to get the 3rd and 4th seedings.

That leaves it to Portland, Denver, and New Orleans — with the last of these currently having a slightly better record and few difficult road games — to fight for 3rd and 4th and home court. So if you concede the Hornets 3rd, the last home court seed may well come down to Portland and Denver on the last day of the season in the Rose Garden, with the Nuggets ahead on the tiebreaker if they wind up even.

by blazerwizard on Mar 8, 2009 7:54 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

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