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Here's how you beat the Blazers

No, I don’t mean to sound defeatist. But if you want to beat the upper echelon or two of teams over the balance of the season, and go on to succeed in the playoffs, it pays to know how your opponent will go after you, and therefore what you need to protect against.  And in terms of aggregate performance (i.e., not considering the obvious – like, "stop B-Roy") it turns out the Blazers’ biggest "Achilles heel" is a failure to succeed at one of its biggest strengths:  Rebounding, where we have variously ranked Number 1 or Number 2 in the league overall this season, based on percentages of missed shots we get versus our opponents.

Here are the stark numbers:  When the Blazers out-rebound their opponent in terms of pure number of boards (data source: NBA.com) they are a staggering 34-6 this season; when they get out-rebounded they are a pathetic 3-16. Percentage-wise, the latter is worse than the worst overall team record in the league to this point in the season.

Now, the savvy among you will be quick to point out that, to some extent, these numbers are self-fulfilling: When the other team is missing shots (so you’re winning), you’ll naturally tend to get more boards; and when you’re missing the iron (and losing) you’ll tend to get fewer.  So let’s dig a little deeper to correct for this bias.

To do this, we’ll use other good teams as a control. This eliminates from consideration all the teams in the league that are .500 or below, as they tend to do no better than a mediocre job of both rebounding and winning.  Instead, as playoff object lessons we’ll look at the genuine playoff teams – the Big 4 of Boston, Cleveland, LA Lakers, and Orlando, and the Second-Tier 8 (sans Portland) of Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, Houston, New Orleans, Phoenix, San Antonio, and Utah.

The Big 4 average a win-loss record of 33-6 when they out-rebound their opponents and 14-7 when they get outboarded. In other words their ratio of wins to losses decreases from 5 to 1 when they’re hitting the boards to 2 to 1 when they are experiencing an off game on the glass.  That’s a distinct, and expected, drop-off, but clearly, these top teams compensate for any board decline by excelling in other areas of the game and thereby still manage to win two-thirds of those games.  Specifically, the win-loss when out-rebounded by their opponents, is Boston, 9-5; Cleveland, 15-7; Lakers, 14-6; and Orlando, 19-11.  (Contrast this with the Blazers’ nearly 6 to 1 win-loss advantage when winning the rebound battle compared with an unbelievably horrendous 1 to 4 win-loss ratio when getting pushed around in the paint.)

Now let’s look at the Second-Tier 8:  When out-rebounding their opponents, their combined average win-loss is 23-7, about a 3 to 1 ratio.  When getting out-rebounded, their average win-loss is 14-15, about 1 to 1.  This is a steeper drop-off than for the Big 4, but holds up vastly better than Portland, which simply flops to a big-time losing team when getting pounded in the board game.  (The worst of these eight when out-rebounded is Atlanta at 15-22.)

So what do we conclude?  Well, despite our self-acknowledged reputation for being soft, our top overall rebounding position in the league does demonstrate a certain toughness.  However, when we allow the opposition to out-tough or out-hustle us on the boards . . . we fade, we fold, we lose.  The lesson is that Nate can never allow that to happen. It he is successful in this part of the game, the Blazers can go a long way in April and beyond.  If not, well, Sayonara!

 

7 recs  |  Comment 39 comments

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The Blazers are the best rebounding team in the NBA

That is the main reason why they are a good team this year. If they don’t get more rebounds than the opponent it generally means that the opponents are scoring efficiently and none of Blazers are hitting their shots.

by trk on Mar 4, 2009 1:23 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

It depends on which stat you use

In terms of offensive rebound % + defensive rebound % the Blazers are the best. In terms of actual numbers of rebounds vs opponent rebounds I think Boston is first, but only because their opponents miss more shots. The Blazers are 1st in total number of rebounds by the opposing team, 1st in offensive rebound %, 2nd in total offensive rebounds (behind LAL who play at a faster pace than us), tied for 6th in defensive rebound %.

by trk on Mar 4, 2009 1:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Boston first

Portland is second. LA leads in raw rebounds, but it’s because they play at a faster pace than the league median. In terms of rebound percentage, Boston and Portland are the best.

acquire andre iguodala

by Cablinasian on Mar 4, 2009 2:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That is...

..like 90% of the reason i never post and 100% of the reason i respect the posters that do.

by Croatian_Sensation on Mar 4, 2009 11:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

This is why we need Greg soon

For a guy who is not even close to 100%, he swallows rebounds like no other.

Does anybody know how many times we were outboarded on games where Greg played more than 25 minutes? I bet it’s pretty low.

by Eventine on Mar 4, 2009 1:23 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Oden's effect on rebounding

He has played 25 or more minutes in 20 games.

The Blazers were outrebounded in three of those, @Dallas, @LAL, and Cleveland. All three games were losses, obviously.

But Greg has racked up 4-6 personal fouls in less than 25 minutes in 17 games. Until he learns how to defend the interior without fouling, the Blazers aren’t going to be able to count on him to help reliably on the boards.

by baduk on Mar 4, 2009 2:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

When he comes off the bench, and I suspect he will after this stretch

fouling will be less of a problem. He will anticipate fewer minutes and less talented opposition. Since he will be less of the game plan, he may not be focused as hard. Few players will be getting excited to give 100% at trying to make the backup center take a couple fouls. I think that plays to our advantage. When the bench rotation changes from having frye come in, to having Oden come in, our rebounding should improve considerably compared to the situation with greg out.

by lurtsman on Mar 4, 2009 6:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

doubt it

His foul rate was worse when playing with the second team because of the steady stream of perimeter players blowing throw the lane against the likes of Sergio and Travis. Most likely he will be starting shortly after returning. Remember Joel only plays 22-24 minutes for a reason. He doesn’t hold up well with extended minutes.

by Odenrising on Mar 5, 2009 2:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I have compiled an exhaustive list of things opposing teams need to do to beat us.

Pick and roll.
Pick and roll.
Pick and roll.
Pick and roll.

and lastly,

Pick and roll.

"Respect everyone, fear no one." -TP

by Arby on Mar 4, 2009 3:45 PM PST reply actions   2 recs

your sig answers your q

Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".

...no seriously--stop.

by nima on Mar 4, 2009 11:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Book it

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 5, 2009 3:18 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Wow, nice analysis

That is some really interesting data that you posted blazerwizard. It just goes to underscore how important winning the rebound battle is for winning a ball game.

What might be an interesting next step in the analysis would be to look at the data for the games where teams lost the rebounding battle and see if there are any secondary factors that would account for why the best teams still win those games by a ratio of 2:1, good teams 1:1, and our Blazers only 1:4.

Maybe someone could run a linear regression analysis that correlates for all the teams mentioned the team winning % when losing the rebounding battle vs. the something like the ratio of 2pt to 3pt shots taken by the teams. Perhaps rebounds that come off of 2pt shots are easier for the defense to rebound on average than 3pt shots taken by the opponent.

I wasn’t aware that winning the rebounding battle played such a huge factor in winning ballgames. It makes some sense, but still I didn’t realize it was that important.

by BootStrapper on Mar 4, 2009 4:20 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

This is an interesting stat and all

but I gotta say I don’t think this is how you beat the Blazers. I don’t think an opposing coach is going to say the key to beating the Blazers is rebounding, meaning, I don’t think a coach is going to focus on that when preparing his team to face Portland.

Sure, any coach worth his salt is going to tell his team that the Blazers rebound the ball well, especially on the offensive end, but merely fighting for rebounds isn’t going to change the tide of the game. A similar stat, for me at least, is that Portland is 27-2 when they score 100 or more points and, therefore, 10-20 when they don’t. “Play good defense” is not something that changes the outcome of a game. We’ve got to look deeper. We’ve got to understand why Portland does well when they score or rebound a lot.

So, yes, out rebounding Portland and not letting them score 100 points should result in a win for the other team, but they’re working on something else in order to accomplish that.

From what I’ve seen when I watch games the keys to beating Portland are:

Encourage 1 vs. 1 offense from the Blazers (ex. overplay passing lanes)
Play physical
Effective doubles on Roy and Aldridge, make someone else beat you
Get into the paint (either quick guards or pick and rolls), get the bigs in foul trouble
Don’t give the Blazers easy buckets because they don’t force turnovers or get fastbreak points
Make the extra pass, the Blazers don’t rotate well

I’m sure there are more, but these are the ones that popped into my head

"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"

by Magnum on Mar 4, 2009 4:33 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

The form of my argument, provocative as it is, is meant to be a lesson to Portland,

and not as a methodology recommendation to other teams, nothwithstanding the title. Sorry if that didn’t come across.

by blazerwizard on Mar 4, 2009 4:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

the title did color my reading of the post

"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"

by Magnum on Mar 4, 2009 4:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

my question would be, what were the shooting percentages for portland when we won vs wehn we lost?

Man, we should forfeit before roy’s hammy explodes, knocking him into LMA’s ear who loses his balance and hits Greg’s knee… - HurraKane212

http://www.nba.com/news/miles_10_080919.html

by maid tu rek on Mar 4, 2009 5:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I believe the number is around 45%

"It's not who jumps the highest -- it's who wants it the most" Buck Williams

"and if EVERYONE confronted with a tough, disgusting situation pulled out, I don't think I would have been born." Mortimer

by Fund A Mental on Mar 5, 2009 1:33 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Blazers actually won the rebound percentage battle

They grabbed more boards cause the Blazers missed more shots.

The cake is a lie. Do not bake it.

by blzrfan on Mar 4, 2009 10:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The Blazers almost always win the percentage battle

Most of the 20 games where we lost the rebounding battle (in terms of total numbers) are probably more due to missing shots rather than rebounding poorly.

by trk on Mar 4, 2009 11:33 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

anomoly

The Kings have the best bench I’ve seen. There are easily 14 guys on this team good enough for every bench in the league. Now if we could only get some starters, I’d totally jizz in my pants.

Kings fan

by dyshooter182 on Mar 4, 2009 10:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The Pacers won that game for 36 minutes

At one point the announcers said the rebounding edge was 15-5. The Blazers couldn’t buy one and were NOT winning that game.

Sticking up for Travis Outlaw since 2008.

by Kaboomm on Mar 5, 2009 2:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I suspect turnovers

as a secondary explanation for W/L. That would be an interesting analysis as well. Phoenix outrebounds and out shoots (% wise) their opponents regularly. They are also one of the worst turnover teams in the league.

by BrewDude on Mar 4, 2009 10:12 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

No

And we didn’t deserve to win this game.

The Pacers are going to surprise some people.

by chnews on Mar 4, 2009 10:56 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree and noticed this as well.

A good indicator of the game for Portland is to look at the rebounding. Are they outboarding their opponents? If they are, they typically lead the game and go on to win. However, even if Portland loses the rebound battle and loses the game, it’s unrealistic to suggest that Portland has to suddenly find new ways to win if they don’t win rebounding. Therefore, the best we can hope for is this: other teams do not exploit this. Do not let other teams out rebound you, plain and simple. In the playoffs, Portland has to dig in to its inner strength and hustle to the point that they’re not going to lose at the boards.

The Kings have the best bench I’ve seen. There are easily 14 guys on this team good enough for every bench in the league. Now if we could only get some starters, I’d totally jizz in my pants.

Kings fan

by dyshooter182 on Mar 4, 2009 10:31 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

maybe rebounding is just the tip of the iceberg

maybe the rebounding correlates to their intensity. When they’re grabbing boards, they’re boxing out their men. When they’re boxing out their men, they’re probably contesting their shots as well. Its a bit demoralizing on a play like the Pacers’ 2nd to last try tonight when the opponent grabs offensive board after offensive board and stays alive. When they sink one of those 3rd/4th chance attempts, it is psychologically draining. Our guys are young and that’s one of the pitfalls of inexperience. With time they’ll learn that you have good days and bad days on offense, but your defense is entirely a reflection of your effort and its something you can rely on night in and night out. You’ll always be a net positive if you dont have any negatives (i.e. defensive lapses).

Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".

...no seriously--stop.

by nima on Mar 4, 2009 11:04 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Correct.

The rebounding number is symptomatic of hustle. When the Blazers are lazy, they lose that battle and, more often than they should, the game.

by Marvin100 on Mar 4, 2009 11:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think it is as syptomatic of missing shots as it is of hustle

Even though the Blazers are a good rebounding team, 2/3 of Blazers’ missed shots will be rebounded by the other team. If the Blazers miss a lot more shots than the opponent, they will loose the rebounding battle.

by trk on Mar 4, 2009 11:56 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

maybe we should be looking at offensive rebounds for each team?

Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".

...no seriously--stop.

by nima on Mar 5, 2009 12:01 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

or simply pts per possession to account for good shooting nights?

Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".

...no seriously--stop.

by nima on Mar 5, 2009 12:02 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I have been intending to post something like this.

We have a couple games where we killed our opponent on the boards, actually by 20+ in one game, but we only won by about 10 points. If you convert half of a 20 board advantage into scores you win by 20 not by 10. The Blazers clearly have other areas they need to improve on.
I think one of them is playing hard the entire game. We have the unique ability to grind our opponent. But we need to play 10 deep to do this. And we need to do this because our talent is not condensed into 2 or 3 players, but spread out. Player to player comparisons against some teams will show that we have less talent. But this is flips as we go deeper into our bench. We need to come out play hard every single minute.
I hope the San Antonio game taught us this lesson.

GO
THE TEACHER ......come into my classroom "THE PAINT" for some tutelage.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"The rancor reflected in that remark I won't dignify with comment. But I'll address your general attitude of hopeless negativism." – Everett "O Brother, where art Thou?"

by Blazer1342 on Mar 5, 2009 12:18 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

The Blazers don't play well against small-ball teams.

We even tend to get out rebounded! (GS and IND.)

Why? Is it because the Blazers practice classical basketball to drill the right way into the guys?

Perhaps Nate should have the starters go against Bayless, Sergio, Rudy, Outlaw and Frye/Randolph to prep for these games?

It just seems like without Roy’s heroics, some great individual performances outside the team concept, and their little guys winding down late and missing, we don’t win these games.

Counting on JJ to miss that 3 is just too much!

by LaoTzu on Mar 5, 2009 4:30 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Jack got a pretty good look on that shot.

The ref didn’t get a very good look at Jack’s feet, he took about 5 steps.

GO
THE TEACHER ......come into my classroom "THE PAINT" for some tutelage.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"The rancor reflected in that remark I won't dignify with comment. But I'll address your general attitude of hopeless negativism." – Everett "O Brother, where art Thou?"

by Blazer1342 on Mar 5, 2009 5:47 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

38-22

Because we are that good… Period. With Oden back we win in the first round possibly the second round in the Playoffs, just because we are so good on the boards and we have BRoy. All those small ball teams will be sitting home watching.

by Odenrising on Mar 5, 2009 2:17 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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