Projection explanation in my Sched Ahead Threads.

Yesterday's Update

Yesterday's Games

That's two very good days in a row for us.  Next time someone complains that the Blazers can't win road games against playoff teams, just remember that San Antonio's win at Detroit (when the Pistons were in the tank) is the only Cat 4 Rocky Road win for any Western contender since the all-star break.  In the stretch run, playoff contenders are really bringing their game at home -- you have to defend home court.  It is going to be very, very difficult to get those wins.

Toronto at Houston.  Meh.  At least the Raptors came out hard and made them earn it.  Landry seems to be healthy again.

Memphis @ L@kers.  Double-meh.  I suppose the league does have to schedule these games.

Now for the good stuff.  Phoenix-Orlando, Shaq-Dwight.  Shaq wins the flop competition, but loses the game.  Nash is back, but it wasn't enough.  Phoenix is now (in the loss column) 2 games behind Dallas, 3 behind Utah, and 4 behind everyone else (including us) with 21-23 games left.  That mountain is getting harder for those old guys to climb.

Billups went for 21 in the first half, but was slowed in the second, and Detroit got their first home win against a Western contender this year.  For the first time in forever, we're even with Denver in the loss column.  This loss helps us, but it also means Denver will be even that much more motivated tomorrow night.  And Anthony, who was suspended for refusing to leave the last game, will be back and ultra-motivated as well.

So, we got both of the ones we could legitimately hope for, and neither of the ones we couldn't really expect.  A good night. 

Projections

1. L.A. — 65.6 wins, up from 65.5.
2. S.A. — 55.5.
3. Denver — 54.0, down from 54.5.  
4. Portland — 52.1. 
5. Houston — 52.1, up from 51.9.  They trail us by 0.004 projected wins, an overwhelming margin.  
6. N.O. — 51.8. 
7. Utah — 47.1. 
8. Dallas — 46.6. 
9. Phoenix — 45.5, down from 45.9.  Note that the Orlando loss was pretty much expected, so doesn't hurt their projection that much, even though it hurts them in the standings.  Same thing with all of their losses this week -- a win will be worth a big boost, a loss hurts them only marginally.  If they win one of four, they will pretty much break even on the week.  The big problem is that they need to do better than break even now.

Games of Note Tonight

1. Pacers at Portland.  Jarrett returns.  They are playing well, but are on a back to back, and their success has been at home, with road wins hard to come by.  They did win last night, but that was at Sacramento.  If we bring our new-found commitment to intensity on defense, this should not be close.
2. Phoenix at Miami.  The Suns hit game two in their week of death.  A back to back after all their key guys played long minutes in a tough loss.  Look for Miami to try and get up and down the court and wear them down.  Interesting (and probably useless) fact:  Miami has gone WLWL, winning every other game, for their last ten games.  They are due for a win, their last one was a loss to the Cavs.  It's doubtful whether Phoenix has anyone who can remotely defend Wade.
3. Spurs at Mavs.  This is a win-win for us.  If the Spurs win, Dallas drops farther into the mire, and it puts 3 losses between us and the 8 seed.  If the Mavs win, S.A. falls a little closer within reach, and we still have an outside shot at catching them if things really come together for us.  Expect Dallas to win -- they are at home and need it badly, and they have the revenge motive -- they were humbled at S.A. last week.  Dallas has been poor at home against good teams, though, while the Spurs are a very good road team.
4. Houston at Utah.  Houston on a back to back.  Another win-win for us.  Either Houston loses, and drops behind us in the race for fourth, or Utah loses, putting two losses between us and the 7th seed.  Unfortunately, one of them will win, too, but we'll live with that.  This is the first of two home games against playoff teams for the Jazz this week, both of which the other team is on a back to back.  Utah should win both, but it's the NBA, and you can't win all of the games you should win -- they are bound to have a poor game before too long.

That's it, three games outside of Portland.  Two of our rivals will win, two will lose, a third will probably lose.  If we win and Phoenix loses, we are 5 ahead of them in the loss column with 22 to play.  You would have to be a real pessimist to think they can retrieve that.  Two wins for Portland this week locks down our playoff spot beyond question.  Three wins and even the biggest pessimists out there will concede that we are in.