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Daily Update and Silly Sched Projections -- Games of 3/3

Projection explanation in my Sched Ahead Threads.

Yesterday's Update

Yesterday's Games

That's two very good days in a row for us.  Next time someone complains that the Blazers can't win road games against playoff teams, just remember that San Antonio's win at Detroit (when the Pistons were in the tank) is the only Cat 4 Rocky Road win for any Western contender since the all-star break.  In the stretch run, playoff contenders are really bringing their game at home -- you have to defend home court.  It is going to be very, very difficult to get those wins.

Toronto at Houston.  Meh.  At least the Raptors came out hard and made them earn it.  Landry seems to be healthy again.

Memphis @ L@kers.  Double-meh.  I suppose the league does have to schedule these games.

Now for the good stuff.  Phoenix-Orlando, Shaq-Dwight.  Shaq wins the flop competition, but loses the game.  Nash is back, but it wasn't enough.  Phoenix is now (in the loss column) 2 games behind Dallas, 3 behind Utah, and 4 behind everyone else (including us) with 21-23 games left.  That mountain is getting harder for those old guys to climb.

Billups went for 21 in the first half, but was slowed in the second, and Detroit got their first home win against a Western contender this year.  For the first time in forever, we're even with Denver in the loss column.  This loss helps us, but it also means Denver will be even that much more motivated tomorrow night.  And Anthony, who was suspended for refusing to leave the last game, will be back and ultra-motivated as well.

So, we got both of the ones we could legitimately hope for, and neither of the ones we couldn't really expect.  A good night. 

Projections

1. L.A. — 65.6 wins, up from 65.5.
2. S.A. — 55.5.
3. Denver — 54.0, down from 54.5.  
4. Portland — 52.1. 
5. Houston — 52.1, up from 51.9.  They trail us by 0.004 projected wins, an overwhelming margin.  
6. N.O. — 51.8. 
7. Utah — 47.1. 
8. Dallas — 46.6. 
9. Phoenix — 45.5, down from 45.9.  Note that the Orlando loss was pretty much expected, so doesn't hurt their projection that much, even though it hurts them in the standings.  Same thing with all of their losses this week -- a win will be worth a big boost, a loss hurts them only marginally.  If they win one of four, they will pretty much break even on the week.  The big problem is that they need to do better than break even now.

Games of Note Tonight

  1. Pacers at Portland.  Jarrett returns.  They are playing well, but are on a back to back, and their success has been at home, with road wins hard to come by.  They did win last night, but that was at Sacramento.  If we bring our new-found commitment to intensity on defense, this should not be close.
  2. Phoenix at Miami.  The Suns hit game two in their week of death.  A back to back after all their key guys played long minutes in a tough loss.  Look for Miami to try and get up and down the court and wear them down.  Interesting (and probably useless) fact:  Miami has gone WLWL, winning every other game, for their last ten games.  They are due for a win, their last one was a loss to the Cavs.  It's doubtful whether Phoenix has anyone who can remotely defend Wade.
  3. Spurs at Mavs.  This is a win-win for us.  If the Spurs win, Dallas drops farther into the mire, and it puts 3 losses between us and the 8 seed.  If the Mavs win, S.A. falls a little closer within reach, and we still have an outside shot at catching them if things really come together for us.  Expect Dallas to win -- they are at home and need it badly, and they have the revenge motive -- they were humbled at S.A. last week.  Dallas has been poor at home against good teams, though, while the Spurs are a very good road team.
  4. Houston at Utah.  Houston on a back to back.  Another win-win for us.  Either Houston loses, and drops behind us in the race for fourth, or Utah loses, putting two losses between us and the 7th seed.  Unfortunately, one of them will win, too, but we'll live with that.  This is the first of two home games against playoff teams for the Jazz this week, both of which the other team is on a back to back.  Utah should win both, but it's the NBA, and you can't win all of the games you should win -- they are bound to have a poor game before too long.

That's it, three games outside of Portland.  Two of our rivals will win, two will lose, a third will probably lose.  If we win and Phoenix loses, we are 5 ahead of them in the loss column with 22 to play.  You would have to be a real pessimist to think they can retrieve that.  Two wins for Portland this week locks down our playoff spot beyond question.  Three wins and even the biggest pessimists out there will concede that we are in.

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thanks fearless leader.

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.

by faith on Mar 4, 2009 6:43 AM PST reply actions  

this is great

amazing how a little competitiveness makes the end of the season more interesting.

Can we go ahead and say this is Round 0.1 of the playoffs?

by northwestj on Mar 4, 2009 7:03 AM PST reply actions  

It is more interesting this way

It would be nice if only 8 teams were separated from the pack, the Blazers were already a sold lock in the playoffs, and the end of the season was only about playoff position but this makes these games much more exciting. It might kill me, but at least I’ll die an excited death.

Hello Dum Dum

by ryryslyry on Mar 4, 2009 9:18 AM PST up reply actions  

Anyone else notice Shaq's schedule of late?

LA, Orlando, then Miami.

Coincidence? That is actually pretty weird.

by rmcdougall on Mar 4, 2009 9:14 AM PST reply actions  

As for the Spurs/Mavs game

I don’t see at being win-win. Could we realistically catch up to them?

I’d much rather see a Mavs loss than a Spurs loss.

by northwestj on Mar 4, 2009 10:30 AM PST reply actions  

We are 3 games behind the Spurs

We are 3 games ahead of the Suns.

We have as good of shot at catching the Spurs as the Suns do at catching us. (Schedule says otherwise, but you get my point.)

by Zaig on Mar 4, 2009 11:00 AM PST up reply actions  

Ain't it cool though that we are only1 gm behind the SLackrzzz for the best home record in the west?

"Sergio and I obtained chalupas to understand their power. Then Sergio showed that each one has 427 calories and 27 grams of fat. Leaping upwards, we reviled the accursed chalupa and its pressure. – Rudy Fernandez

by LetsBlaze on Mar 4, 2009 11:05 AM PST reply actions  

Sched projection beginning to resemble reality.

We are less than half a game from 6th place and only five games from Utah (who is very likely to pass us, as I have been saying all year).

I thought I would throw this link in here as an example of a statistically minded person tipping his hat to experience and history:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-090304

Note particularly the fifth paragraph, “But the biggest reason to think…”

by Blazin' on Mar 4, 2009 2:08 PM PST reply actions  

again

Utah is not getting hot now because of experience. Its happening because they are (a) healthy and (b) really good, not because they flipped some mythical switch. They are getting healthy in time to very possibly pass us, but their brutal closing schedule will give us a chance to pass them back. If you could me a trend of Jerry Sloan teams playing last 25 games better than the final 57 games (as Hollinger showed for Larry Brown teams), then I’d give more credence to your “stretch run” theory. Unfortunately, while the Jazz were better after the all-star break than before in ‘07-’08, they were decidedly worse after the break in ‘05-’06 and ’06’07.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Mar 4, 2009 2:34 PM PST up reply actions  

you must actually be reading my comments then,

its effecting you

Man, we should forfeit before roy’s hammy explodes, knocking him into LMA’s ear who loses his balance and hits Greg’s knee… - HurraKane212

http://www.nba.com/news/miles_10_080919.html

by maid tu rek on Mar 4, 2009 5:30 PM PST up reply actions  

again?

 I have not been saying that experience is why the Jazz are good, although it certainly is a factor. My point on Jscot’s posts has been to point out the limitations of statistical projections and the advantage of applying some common sense. Yeah, Utah is really good. They were really good last year. That’s what I’ve been saying to Jscots posts all season long. And the projection has had them in 7th/8th place. My whole point. You are determined to be quite disagreeable!

by Blazin' on Mar 4, 2009 10:49 PM PST up reply actions  

I've said all along

that the projections are silly. And one big reason is injuries. This is not the same Utah team that lost home games to Chicago and NJ earlier in the year.

What I have said is that early season performance and their brutal closing schedule would be an anchor that would hold them down. At the start of the year, I predicted we would win 55 — and that Utah would win the division. Our injuries have most likely cost us a shot at that 55, and theirs have certainly cost them the chance to exceed 55.

How much can a healthy Utah team repair the damage from the earlier injuries? Quite a bit, apparently. But that doesn’t change the fact that they still have 13 of their final 20 games on the road, and 10 of those 13 are against winning teams battling for playoff position.

The spreadsheet only projects them to win one of those ten. That is probably wrong, because the projection is based on past performance this season, when people were injured. But based on last year’s performance, they would win 2-3 of those ten. Even if they exceed that and go 4-6 on those games, that still leaves them at 53 wins if they win all the rest of their home games and the three road games against losing teams.

I’ve been saying for several weeks that Utah is a threat, despite the projections. I’ve also said all along that every team below us in the projections has the ability to make a run and pass us. What I’ve never believed was that all of them would do that. They have to play each other too much, and they will chew each other up. We will dish out some losses when some of these teams come to Portland, as happened Sunday. And some of them are bound to hit a rough patch, no matter how experienced they are, or have injuries. Some might pass us, and no one knows which ones. But not all of them.

Dallas hasn’t been playing particularly well, and has dropped a little behind, and Phoenix is toast. They might catch Dallas, but they won’t catch us unless we just completely fold. And as long as we have games against teams like Indiana and Minnesota, we’re going to keep getting enough wins to get us home, and with at least a couple of games to spare.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 4, 2009 11:16 PM PST up reply actions  

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