"Takin' Care of Bidness" - Here's where it gets interesting

BY REQUEST, I'LL CONTINUE TO UPDATE THIS IN NEW FANPOSTS DAILY (UPDATES FOLLOW BELOW IN ITALICS):

What if EVERYONE in the Western playoff chase "takes care of business," namely, wins all their home games and wins the road games against non-playoff competition?  Where does the race shake out?

Here are the updated results, with a look at remaining games to follow:

TONIGHT'S KEY ACTION:

OKC at SA  (upset for the artist formerly known as the Sonics?)

NO at SAC  (obviously, we want an upset for the Kings)

DAL at MIN  (go Vikings, er, Timberwolves)

NYK at DEN  (C'mon KNICKS!!!)

UTA at POR  ('nuff said)

Now, none of these games are BOLDED below as upset specials, though it would certainly be nice if one or two of the four NON-PORTLAND games saw the underdog slip through, ESPECIALLY the Denver game, though it seems really unlikely after the Knicks fell short in Utah last night and have to go into Mile High.  If DAL or NO loses, they are three games off the pace, so that makes it VERY LIKELY Portland earns at least a six seed, even if they slip from their "takin' care of bidness" projection.  Realistically, though, best we can hope for out of the evening is that Blazers take care of business and live to fight another day for higher seeding on the road.

I'll be there with my lungs at full capacity!!!

KEY GAMES WHERE UNEXPECTED RESULTS COULD HELP THE BLAZERS LISTED BELOW

As I was responding to a post below, I realized that bolding key games where we DON'T WANT THE EXPECTED "TAKING CARE OF BUSINESS" TO HAPPEN might give us more games of interest, so I have bolded games for each team in the hunt where rooting for a "non-traditional" outcome should help the Blazers:

SAN ANTONIO

(current:  48-25)  (projected:  56-26) 

(2 seed)

• Tue, Mar 31 Oklahoma City W
• Fri, Apr 3 at Indiana W
• Sun, Apr 5 at Cleveland L
• Tue, Apr 7 at Oklahoma City W
• Wed, Apr 8 Portland W  (lost TWICE already, 2nd of back-to-back)
• Fri, Apr 10 Utah W
• Sun, Apr 12 at Sacramento W
• Mon, Apr 13 at Golden State W  (2d of back to back)
• Wed, Apr 15 New Orleans W

DENVER

(current:  48-26)  (projected:  54-28)

(3 seed)

• Tue, Mar 31 NY Knicks W
• Thu, Apr 2 Utah W  (lost to them TWICE already)
• Sat, Apr 4 LA Clippers W
• Sun, Apr 5 at Minnesota W  (2d of back-to-back)
• Wed, Apr 8 Oklahoma City W
• Thu, Apr 9 at LA Lakers L
• Mon, Apr 13 Sacramento W
• Wed, Apr 15 at Portland L

HOUSTON

(current:  48-26)  (projected:  53-29) 

(wins tiebreakers with POR, earning the 4 seed)

• Wed, Apr 1 at Phoenix L
• Fri, Apr 3 at LA Lakers L
• Sun, Apr 5 Portland W (lost to them already)
• Tue, Apr 7 Orlando W (not sure why)
• Thu, Apr 9 at Sacramento W
• Fri, Apr 10 at Golden State W  (2d of back to back)
• Mon, Apr 13 New Orleans W (lost to them once already)
• Wed, Apr 15 at Dallas L

PORTLAND

(current:  46-27)  (projected:  53-29)

(loses tiebreaker to HOU, meaning a likely 5 seed)

• Tue, Mar 31 Utah W
• Fri, Apr 3 at Oklahoma City W
• Sun, Apr 5 at Houston L  (beat them once already)
• Tue, Apr 7 at Memphis W
• Wed, Apr 8 at San Antonio L  (beat them TWICE already, b2b)
• Fri, Apr 10 LA Lakers W
• Sat, Apr 11 at LA Clippers W
• Mon, Apr 13 Oklahoma City W
• Wed, Apr 15 Denver W

NEW ORLEANS

(current:  45-27)  (projected:  51-31)

(wins tiebreaker with DAL, earning a 6 seed)

• Tue, Mar 31 at Sacramento W
• Wed, Apr 1 at LA Clippers W
• Fri, Apr 3 at Golden State W  (lost to them once already AT HOME)
• Sun, Apr 5 Utah W  (lost to them TWICE already)
• Tue, Apr 7 at Miami L
• Wed, Apr 8 Phoenix W  (2d of back-to-back)
• Fri, Apr 10 at Dallas L  (beat them TWICE already)
• Sun, Apr 12 Dallas W
• Mon, Apr 13 at Houston L
• Wed, Apr 15 at San Antonio L (possible W if Spurs rest guys?)

DALLAS

(current:  43-30)  (projected:  51-31) 

(loses tiebreaker to NO, earning a 7 seed)

• Tue, Mar 31 at Minnesota W
• Wed, Apr 1 Miami W
• Fri, Apr 3 at Memphis W  (lost to them once already)
• Sun, Apr 5 Phoenix W  (lost to them once already)
• Wed, Apr 8 Utah W  (lost to them TWICE already)
• Fri, Apr 10 New Orleans W  (lost to them TWICE already)
• Sun, Apr 12 at New Orleans L
• Mon, Apr 13 Minnesota W  (2d of back-to-back)
• Wed, Apr 15 Houston W

UTAH

(current:  46-27)  (projected:  49-33) 

(8 seed)

• Tue, Mar 31 at Portland L
• Thu, Apr 2 at Denver L  (beat them TWICE already)
• Fri, Apr 3 Minnesota W  (2d of back-to-back)
• Sun, Apr 5 at New Orleans L  (beat them TWICE already)
• Wed, Apr 8 at Dallas L  (beat them TWICE already)
• Fri, Apr 10 at San Antonio L
• Sat, Apr 11 Golden State W  (2d of back-to-back)
• Mon, Apr 13 LA Clippers W
• Tue, Apr 14 at LA Lakers L (possible W if Lakers rest guys?)

PHOENIX

(current:  40-34)  (projected:  46-36) 

(OUT)

• Wed, Apr 1 Houston W
• Fri, Apr 3 Sacramento W
• Sun, Apr 5 at Dallas L  (beat them once already)
• Wed, Apr 8 at New Orleans L  (2d of back-to-back for NO)
• Fri, Apr 10 at Memphis W
• Sat, Apr 11 at Minnesota W  (2d of back-to-back)
• Mon, Apr 13 Memphis W
• Wed, Apr 15 Golden State W

THE RACE HAS CHANGED, MY FRIENDS

Well, unexpected events have changed the race, but not in the way some of us had hoped or foreseen. This is shaping up now as very much a series of races.

Instead of us and Denver competing, with Denver's recent couple of "unexpected" wins, Denver is now really in effect a couple games up on us in the division, meaning unless they hit a "banana peel" as Jscot so appropriately calls it, they are unlikely to come back to us in the race (remember they have the tiebreaker).  I'll reserve judgment on calling the race, but the race for the division really FEELS over.

That being said, with Dallas and New Orleans falling off the pace a bit (even with NO's recent win over SA, which was actually expected, under our system for these posts), there has really been established a tier system: LA, SA, and DEN are starting to look like the clear division winners (LA was a long time ago, obviously), while Houston and Portland look like they will battle for the 4-5 (remember, we lose head to head tiebreaker with them, unless we win in Houston, so that looms as our biggest remaining game, barring a miracle that makes the last game of the season mean something).

The good thing is that recent events and the upcoming schedule have really pushed Utah, Dallas and NO into a tier behind Houston and Portland.  Jscot has suggested that NO could sneak up into the HOU/POR tier, but I don't think that's likely.  Phoneix is nothing more than a spoiler at this point.

What that means is, we can start to hope for those teams to get wins against Houston (or Denver) to help us out, but other than that, it really becomes Portland taking care of ITS business to earn homecourt...beat Houston, and you really turn the race around, because you have the tiebreaker, so it's really a FOUR game swing depending on whether we win at Houston.  How so?  If we win, we get a tiebreaker on them, plus a game gained in the standings.  If we lose, we fall a game behind in the standings and lose the tiebreaker, too.  So, it's the difference between being TWO up or TWO down...no pressure though, Portland, no pressure.

Putting that aside, we can still: 

CHEER FOR UTAH OVER DENVER!!!

The team best positioned to help the Blazers by winning a game they shouldn't is Utah.  Utah has a brutal schedule that will make it tough to catch Portland for the division, so unless they go on a hot streak, Blazer fans become Jazz fans when the teams aren't playing each other.  If Utah can somehow win in Denver, that gets Portland back closer to Denver.

CHEER FOR NEW ORLEANS OVER HOUSTON!!!

New Orleans could knock Houston a game behind the Blazers, moving Portland into the 4 slot, assuming no more variations from plan, or padding Portland's lead on Houston if we manage to somehow beat Houston in Houston.

BEAT HOUSTON (or San Antonio)!!!

Of Course, God helps those who help themselves, so the best thing Portland could do for itself would be to steal the game in Houston, and hold serve on the other "should wins," making all the tiebreaker talk moot, as Portland would gain a game on Houston in the standings, and would earn the tiebreaker with Houston based on the head-to head. 

Essentially, the game against Houston has a four game swing in the standings, effectively, for Portland.

Let’s say we enter the game tied:

Win, and what you say above happens, we are a game ahead, with the tiebreaker, so essentially two games up on Houston with only a few left to play.

Lose, and the same is true of Houston, they are a game ahead, owning the tiebreaker, so essentially two up with a few left to play.

So, because of tiebreakers, it’s either two up or two down after the game v. Houston.

But, failing that, there is one more thing Blazer fans can root for:

ROOT FOR ORLANDO OVER HOUSTON!!!

Orlando could help us if they find a way to win in Houston, which would also knock Houston behind Portland, if all else goes to plan, again giving Portland the 4 seed, unless Denver collapses, where we still have an outside shot at the 3.  (We now really need Denver to cough up a couple patsies somewhere)

BOTTOM LINE:

What we as Blazers fans should be rooting for (and that's really the question here, right?) in any game between playoff contenders in the West is that the third tier guys (or spoiler Phoenix) win a couple against the first and second tier guys, specifically, Utah and Houston.  Other than that, everything going to plan means we get a four or five seed, and us beating Houston likely gives us homecourt and a matchup with Houston in the first Round.

All clear now?