Magic Numbers (UPDATED 3/20)

3/20 Update:

It's been nearly a week since the last Magic Numbers update; nowadays the Big O is publishing the Blazers magic number in the paper.   Since we lost last night and Phoenix was idle, we're still at 9.  It's probably also useful to note our magic number with respect to the Mavs--any combination of Blazer wins and Dallas losses adding to 12 would clinch us a playoff berth.

It's also worth noting the magic numbers (to clinch) of the other Western teams whose playoff fate is not yet known.  SA and Houston (45 wins) both have magic numbers of 7, Denver is at 8, we're at 9, Utah and New Orleans are at 10, and Dallas has a magic number of 11. 

Tonight in the NBA:  We're idle, as is Phoenix, and the other six teams in the WC playoff hunt (excluding the Lakers who have clinched) are playing.  Four of them, unfortunately, have what look to be gimmes tonight.

Dallas visits the Pacers.  May Jarrett Jack not step on the line too many times.

Memphis sails down the Mississippi to play the Hornets.

Utah visits the Thunder.

Minnesota visits the Rockets.

In the game of the night, Boston visits the Spurs.

And Denver gets paid a visit by the Wizards.

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While it's still a bit early for any Blazer-related magic numbers to be worth discussing much, lets discuss them anyway.

The Blazers magic number to clinch a playoff berth is:  20.  That can be computed by adding our wins (37) with the losses of Phoenix, the current #9 seed (26), and subtracting the result from 83 (82 games + 1 extra to break ties).

83 - (37 + 26) = 20.

Any combination of Blazer wins and Phoenix losses that add up to 20, and we're in.

OTOH, the magic number for the Blazers to be eliminated is computed by using our losses and Phoenix's wins--that number is 83 - (22 + 34) = 27.  Any combination of losses by the Blazers, and wins by Phoenix (or whoever is #9) puts us out of the playoffs.

The good thing is that the first number is less than the second number--and also less than our number of games remaining (23), meaning that we control our own destiny.

The Sacramento Kings are the first team in the West to be eliminated from the playoffs; as they are below the line their magic number is computed with respect to the current #8 seed, Dallas.  The Mavs have 36 wins, the Kings have 48 losses, which adds up to 84.  Doh.  The Clippers have a magic number of one--they could tie Dallas if they won every remaining game and the Mavs lost--but other than that, they're out.  OKC's magic number is 2; Memphis has some breathing room at 4, and the T-Wolves have a magic number of 5.  Golden State has a magic number of eight.

I believe the standing on CNNSI are up-to-date with tonight's action; Phoenix lost.  If not, then our magic number to make the playoffs is 19 and not 20.

UPDATE (3/4):  A few other numbers, since folks asked:

1) Blazers magic number to clinch a top 4 seed, and homecourt in the first round.   Right now that number is 24 (83 - 37 PDX wins - 22 Houston losses).  That assumes we stay ahead of New Orleans, who we are tied with for 5th.

2) Blazers magic number to win the NW Division.  Same--24.   Denver has a 39-22 record, just like Houston.

3) Blazers magic number to win the Western Conference.  34 (83 - 37 PDX wins - 12 Laker losses).  Probably won't happen.

Tonight's games involving WC playoff contenders:  Phoenix is @Miami, San Antonio is @Dallas, Indiana @Portland, and Houston @Utah.  Lakers, Nuggets, and Hornets are idle.

If Dallas wins OR the Clippers (hosting Memphis) lose, the Clippers are out of the playoffs.  If Dallas wins AND the Thunder (hosting the Wizards) lose, the Thunder are gone.