You have got to make 3/4 of your free throws
by chnews on Mar 3, 2009 8:38 PM PST
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A fresh New York Times article considers the incredibly constant overall rate of free throw percentages, over a time period that essentially covers all of modern basketball.
“It’s unbelievable,” Larry Wright, an adjunct professor of statistics at Columbia, said as he studied the year-by-year averages. “There’s almost no difference. Fifty years. This is mind-boggling.”
Two questions: is it possible for the league, at some point, for some yet unknown reason, to systematically improve overall free throw shooting? And if a team could do this thing, would they gain an honest-to-goodness competitive advantage?
We know, of course, there is variation among teams' free throw percentages. I suppose, though I don't really know, that teams who are motivated will shoot higher percentages. We also know that an improvement by someone like Joel Pryzbilla matters, because it can reduce the incentive to hack him. But is overall free throw performance an offset to other advantages that matter more? If we could invent a performance pill that improved free throw percentages from 75% to 80%, how much would it matter?
Given these statistics, you would have to think: not very much. I remember the University of Memphis coach saying that if there were 25 things he could do to improve his team, free throw shooting would be 26th.
So what is the state of the art on this topic?
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free points
why give them away?
An average team takes about 25 ft’s a game as per ESPN. They make about 18-20, but lets call it 75% to make the numbers nice and call the average ppg 100.
each 4% increase in ft shooting = about 1 point for the average team. Improving to 83% would improve a team’s offense by 2 pts, which would be at minimum a 2% overall offensive improvement for an average team. if everything else stayed static, it would improve a teams point differential by 2 pts as well.
Likely, it would encourage opposing teams to not foul and perhaps play softer defense.
Better ft % is playing w/ hose money in my opinion, but it’s late here and I am tired and my math is probably flawed.
Blazer's fan since '84, Spurs fan when they are not playing Portland.
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by HurraKane212 on Mar 3, 2009 8:55 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
for most NBA players
it shouldn’t be difficult to improve FT shooting. There are, of course, oddities, that is, people who would never be able to improve their FT shooting no matter how much practice they got. Ex. Shaq, Wilt, Ben Wallace
It’s just the kind of thing you practice on your own all the time.
"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"
by Magnum on Mar 3, 2009 9:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Are there statistics behind the Blazers as a streaky FT shooting team?
Mike and Mike always note after early FT misses that they will set the tone for the whole game. Anybody got stats one way or another on that?
by LaoTzu on Mar 3, 2009 9:15 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
This doesn't answer it, but from 82games.com
“Clutch” Free throws (4th qtr w/5 mins or less, or OT, and <=5pt difference)
Roy 31 35
Aldridge 6 11
Fernandez 7 9
Blake 9 14
Pryzbilla 4 5
Batum 1 2
Oden 5 7
Outlaw 6 11
Sergio 2 2
Bayless 2 2
Total 73 98 (74.5%)
Overall, the percentage is 76.03. In other words, it’s the same.
by chnews on Mar 3, 2009 10:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
well...we know where 4 of blakes misses came from.
by Tofu Anonymous on Mar 4, 2009 1:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That was the most amazing meltdown.
Pontiff of the Pryz for Prez Posse...
by timbo on Mar 4, 2009 9:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Blake and Outlaw make me cry
Roy makes me happy though, and he single handedly saves the team here. Non Roy players = 42/63 or a perfect 66.7%. Yuck.
by Zaig on Mar 4, 2009 9:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, I'm one to ask alot so ...
coach asking for 85-95% seems right and I wouldn’t hold it against him for asking for 100% free throw shooting, I mean, it is a fun-de-mental of the game, and if ya can’t nail at least 80% on 10 shots on anygiven day anytime through out the day, you shouldn’t be in the nba. (for the record, I suck way worse than that)
meaning anyone in the nba in/at the end of a 24 hr period should be able to put up 10 made free throw shots in a row, (this, seems hard for me, if it isn’t hard enough jump the number up to 25.)
but I’m one to ask alot of a team.
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
by faith on Mar 4, 2009 6:08 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Let a guy shoot 100 FTs
And there is maybe 5 in the NBA that I’d bet against hitting at least 10 in a row.
by Zaig on Mar 4, 2009 9:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
135 in a row
Remember a guy named Barry Clemens? When I was a kid, I remember hearing he made 135 free throws in a row in practice, and I was awestruck and intimidated forever.
by chnews on Mar 4, 2009 11:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think a HS player did something similar
Could be a created memory by me, but I believe the record for a FT streak is from a HS player, not a college/NBA guy.
Either way, hitting 10 in a row while shooting 100 isn’t hard. (I chose 100 over a 24 hour period because anyone who can get the ball to the hoop would eventually hit 10 in a row.)
When you shoot alone you get a waaaay better stroke going. I’d be on any 85%+ guy to hit 15-20 in a row at some point during that 100 too.
by Zaig on Mar 4, 2009 1:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Coach should taser the players when they miss.
That’d teach ’em.
by MiledAnimal on Mar 4, 2009 12:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see why it's that "mind boggling"
What has changed in the last 50+ years? Shooting technique? No.
Sure, people have obviously become far more athletic, bigger, and stronger, but that doesn’t translate to shooting more efficiently. I mean, look at some of the best FT shooters in the game. They aren’t necessarily big or stronger (Ray Allen, Steve Nash, John Stockton, etc). I don’t think its a surprise that FT shooting percentages have stayed relatively constant. In fact, I would be surprised if they changed noticably over time, as there isn’t really a strong reason as to why they would.
"Respect everyone, fear no one." -TP
by Arby on Mar 4, 2009 8:51 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
A theory
This is a fascinating subject for academic interest. Here is an hypothesis as to why free throw accuracy has not improved over the decades despite more players, more competition, better coaching, etc.: Free throw accuracy is, as a generality, inversely related to height; i.e., shorter guys always lead the league and taller guys are the worst. Over the last four or five decades, the average height of players has increased dramatically. Put these two together and I conclude that general overall improvement in player performance has simply been canceled by the increasing height factor.
If you’re not laughing aloud yet, the next step is to consider the physiology issue: WHY is height an impediment to accurate distance shooting (as for some reason it appears to be, and not just free throws)? Is it the general awkwardness of larger athletes when it comes to extended arm motion? Or perhaps the angle of the ball coming to the rim from the shot of a taller player? Is it power — i.e, the speed of a shot coming from a larger athlete, or the difficulty experienced by that athlete in trying to control that speed?
As a physiological question, this issue is in fact a serious one for coaches.
My proposed “solution”? Teach all players, but most especially taller ones, to shoot free throws underhanded.
by blazerwizard on Mar 4, 2009 9:04 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
And another height factor I left out above:
At all levels of the game, taller players practice distance shooting much less than shorter players, devoting more of their time to rebounding and close-in shooting technique. This lack of general outside shooting practice must certainly have a profound negative impact on their 15-foot shooting performance, as well.
by blazerwizard on Mar 4, 2009 9:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
There are coordination issues, too -- it's harder for a big person to make his body move precisely as a little person... That's why almost all the really great shooters are guards...
Pontiff of the Pryz for Prez Posse...
by timbo on Mar 4, 2009 9:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Timbo nailed this one
The physics of longer arms and legs being in the precise spot they are supposed to be in (to shoot the ball) is proportional to the length of the apendage. You know it intuitively when shooting (a gun, not a ball)…any tiny move of the weapon is amplified when the target is farther away……so ….since the big mans hands are much further away from the rest of his body, he has to be much more precise to be in the right shooting position at all
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by 92wastheyear on Mar 4, 2009 9:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's just like pitching
The taller you are, the harder it is for your mechanics to be perfect. Look at Tim Lincecum, best pitcher in baseball, but he’s sure a short little dude. You don’t see a lot of really tall finesse pitchers in baseball. Randy Johnson = power pitcher but Greg Maddux = finesse guy, paints the corners and works the strike zone.
Very Tall Basketball players are taught to use brute force to score, PFs and Cs are post players by nature. Free throws are all about finesse and coordination. Plus, if you’re taller it’s more difficult to get the proper arc on your shot. Taller players’ hands are almost to the rim height when they release so their shot is naturally less arc’ed than a shorter player, who must make the ball really rise in height in order to make his shot. The more arc you have, the more likely your shot is to succeed. See: Kevin Garnett as a rookie vs Kevin Garnett now.
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by RDreamer on Mar 4, 2009 12:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Horrible analogy.
It is well documented that Tim Lincecum has horrible mechanics. His style just happens to be very effective for him.
"Respect everyone, fear no one." -TP
by Arby on Mar 4, 2009 3:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not true. Sports Illustrated had a long analysis of
Lincecum’s style. It’s unorthodox, but the mechanics are sound, and his style gives him some advantages. Don’t ask me more than that. I’m not that much a baseball fan, and I read that article last year in the dentist’s waiting room. I did take my son to see Lincecum’s major league debut, though.
by MiledAnimal on Mar 4, 2009 5:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Truehoop posted on this subject a while back
In that post there is a comment by Hollinger where the Bobcats, the worst foul shooting team, probably gave up on average about a point a game and it probably cost them 2-3 victories.
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-34-97/605-Missed-Free-Throws.html
by tingeyga on Mar 4, 2009 9:20 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Animal House
Dean Wormer: Out with it!
Blutarski: – hurl -
- Elgin
Blazers win BDL 2 on 2 tournament!
Skeets: i’ll close it down now … congrats. you bastards
by 22baylor on Mar 4, 2009 4:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I wanna see one big man try that
Would Shaq be a better FT shooter underhanded? It’s very possible. Your hands being bigger than the ball don’t hurt you as much.
People would make fun of him for shooting underhand, but we do already for how bad he is. Also, instead of ending 5th place on the career scoring list, he’d likely end number 2 or 3 if he could shoot FTs to save his life.
We need Zilla to practice it in the off season and shoot 80% underhand next year!
by Zaig on Mar 4, 2009 1:10 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Wilt is your big man who tried it
He shot underhanded in his later years. It helped him some, I think.
by chnews on Mar 4, 2009 10:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Video: Free throw from Rick Barry and Red Auerbach from "Red on Roundball"
Barry demonstrates his underhanded free throw technique. Shot sometime in the 70’s (I’m guessing sometime around the Warriors championship in 1975). God I love these videos.
by chnews on Mar 4, 2009 10:16 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
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