Full Court Press
I'm a day late with this thanks to KP2's RPG attack on the synapses yesterday so let's get right to it.
Here's stage two of KP2's coordinated brain attack. Pelton steps back and takes a more complete look at the relationship between age and success in the NBA. It is a treatise and well worth your time. If you have a moment today, shoot him an email that says something like "thanks for the work you're doing, by the way, I'm so glad you're transforming into a Blazermaniac, I knew you've been inching onto the bandwagon for awhile now, welcome aboard." In case you're wondering, he's @kpelton on twitter.
Casey Holdahl at Trailblazers.com stat chatted with John Hollinger. Casey touched on a wide range of topics...
Casey Holdahl, Center Court: You were one of the few writers who didn't criticize the Trail Blazers for not making a big trade at the deadline. You also made the statement, against what could probably be best described as conventional wisdom, that Richard Jefferson isn't much of an upgrade over Travis Outlaw (and at 4 times the price). How did you come to both of these conclusions?
John Hollinger, ESPN.com: Jefferson is a bigger name based on his past, but in trades all that matters is future production. Jefferson has a PER of 14.68; Outlaw has a PER of 14.70. Jefferson is 28; Outlaw is 24. Jefferson is a better defender but has a spottier history health-wise. Basically, there's no reason to think Jefferson would outperform Outlaw over the next two seasons or so.
The other part of this that everyone overlooks is this: If you presume the Blazers would pay to keep Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge -- which I'd think nearly everyone would agree with -- then adding Jefferson or Vince Carter would almost certainly have put the Blazers into the luxury tax in 2010-11, and possibly in 2009-10 as well. So unless you think that one of these guys was the missing link to a championship, it's hard for me to see Paul Allen agreeing to that kind of financial hit.
And just to get all the stat stuff out of the way up front, be sure to read Blogfather's discussion of advanced statistics.
There is not a person on the face of the planet who both understands the sophisticated analysis of basketball and thinks it's a fad. It's here to stay, and the sooner you'll embrace that reality, the faster you'll be able to gain useful insight from it.
Indeed. A healthy skepticism towards advanced basketball statistics is good. Waving your arms and complaining about them is bad. But not taking some time to dig into advanced stats and to process their potential uses is now bordering on unforgivable for the serious basketball fan.
Joe Freeman has an update on Greg Oden.
Although Oden hasn't been able to do any significant running since his injury, he was able to perform some cardiovascular conditioning on Monday, riding the exercise bike and elliptical machine "hard," according to Pritchard.
"He's getting better, feeling better and he had a better workout today," Pritchard said. "He's getting close.
"His body is getting better, his knee is getting better, but the thing is he had a ... chipped bone and that thing has got to heal. The big thing for us is we want him to get healthy and once he's healthy, there won't be any aggravation of (the knee)."
Jason Quick has a very nice look at Channing Frye.
"Deep valleys," Frye said. "This has been a season of deep, deep valleys."
I saw Tim Brown following a pack of Batums at the game on Sunday and here's the video product: a look at French Night at the Rose Garden. Some really great footage in there.
Brian Hendrickson hands out some team grades for the Blazers.
The trend last week offered a window to where Portland's season may be headed. They can get into the playoffs just by beating the league's weaker teams and handling a couple of the playoff contenders on their home court. But the season may come to an abrupt hault in the playoffs simply because Portland can't beat the better teams on the road.
Hendrickson also has an interesting update on Joel Freeland.
Dwight Jaynes was asking me yesterday about whether the Blazers actually kicked up the pace on Sunday. My take was that Brandon was looking for his shot early and often, started off hot, and things sort of evolved from there. Dwight writes...
Last night the Trail Blazers had a grand total of four fast-break points (to seven by the Spurs). The entire game. Four. I just don't think you can say they were trying very hard to push the pace if the whole night yielded just two fast-break buckets.
LoadedOrygun ponders the Oden injury.
It pains me to say it, because I continue to believe 100% in Oden's potential and both statistically and in several games on the court, he is already a force of nature inside the paint, changing the way both teams play actually. But the return of Blake and the dominance of Przybilla in Oden's absence have put grease on the team's flow--that one is now a little frightened to tinker with!
Wendell Maxey interviews two of the Rocky Mountain News sportswriters who no longer have a paper to write for. One of the writers, Chris Tomasson, is already writing for ProBasketballNews.com.
Via JE Skeets come this link, a video of Shavlik Randolph d'ing up on a white rapper named Asher Roth. Music language PG-13 but Rosh has an awesome line comparing himself to Kirk Hinrich. Here's Roth's website if you're interested.
Sean Meagher looked at the tight Northwest Division race.
Bustabucket.com sat courtside and has some really nice pictures.
Blazermaniac Andy's season ticket holder party rundown is pretty great too.
Power Rankings:
-- Ben (benjamin.golliver@gmail.com)
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sweet. thx Ben. What shoes are you wearing to the Agency?...
if you are undecided, can you give us the options you are looking at?
Yes on Proposition #9 (RLEC must go!!!!)
i think so. it was inferred...that your BE NIght Media Row Report will include..
pics of BEdger’s shoes…so that is causing a lot of angst among people without cool shoes like me. i was thinking of going barefoot and have them painted in red and black. Nike Air Barefoot….or go in a Martell boot.
i hope you know you are setting a very high bar for your shoe appearance Thursday…Air Bens better be slick!!!
Yes on Proposition #9 (RLEC must go!!!!)
uh oh im starting to feel the pressure like oden.
by Ben Golliver on Mar 3, 2009 10:02 AM PST up reply actions
Aren't Air Bens
loafers? I’ve got some Cole Haans with Nike Air tech in them, you could rock something like that.
shav is awesome
he would be a combination of russell and chamberlain if he was playing in a six feet and under league.
that's pretty fun ain't it?
I think Shav is in his latest MTV video too, but you gotta look close :-)
"Sergio and I obtained chalupas to understand their power. Then Sergio showed that each one has 427 calories and 27 grams of fat. Leaping upwards, we reviled the accursed chalupa and its pressure. – Rudy Fernandez
Spiffy
Way to check someone who is a foot shorter than you Shav! Way to drop Kirk into a rhyme Asher!
I’m full of bitterness today. Could be that I’m going to a job fair who’s recruiters include Avon, the US Army, and Hooters…….
Golly Gee, I sure hope I didn't huwt anybody's feewings.... sniff...sniff....
good luck
all of those require 6 pack abs
"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii
by 92wastheyear on Mar 3, 2009 12:49 PM PST up reply actions
Am I the only one...
Who feels like Greg should be coming off the bench the rest of the season? Przybilla works so well with Blake and Roy and those guys. He doesn’t have the offense Greg has, but at the same time with Greg coming off the bench it’s not going to be a disaster when he gets his first foul, the second unit (who tend to run it up and down a bit more) would be looking to get him the ball more then when our two stars are out there, he’s got less pressure to start the game out strong and he’s generally playing against weaker opponents coming off the other bench. Not to mention it just seems Joel has earned that starting position much more than Greg has.
Life is hilarious.
by SolGoode on Mar 3, 2009 11:58 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I for one completely agree with you that Greg should be comming off the bench for the rest of this season...
and for precisely the reasons that you gave. rec
Blazer's Edge Ambassador to The Dream Shake Blog
LMA Rocks and B-Rex ROARS!!
RRRRRRROOOOOOOWWWWWRRRRRRSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I'm leaning that way but then Oden is different
What if Joel gets in early foul trouble and Oden has to replace him? I just can’t make up my mind on this issue. Joel has earned the starting sport for sure. If Oden just wasn’t so rookie-clumsy, this would be a non-issue.
Yes, and I don't understand why it wasn't this way from day 1
Greg Oden obviously isn’t your typical #1 draft pick. He was never going to be a step in from day 1 and dominate kind of guy. That much was obvious a loooooooooooooooooong time ago. Joel simply helps your team win way more than Greg right now. Why wouldn’t he start and play more minutes? Then you can bring along Greg slowly without all the pressure like he needs.
And this isn’t to bash on Greg, I fully hope he becomes the player we all would like. But he isn’t there yet, and really has provided little evidence over two seasons that he’ll ever be.
Blazer Fan
by leeroyjenkins on Mar 3, 2009 1:30 PM PST up reply actions
I must disagree with you about this, Ben...
But not taking some time to dig into advanced stats and to process their potential uses is now bordering on unforgivable for the serious basketball fan.
I am not one of the many fans that gets their jollies by being a “Stat Geek”. Not that there is anything wrong with being a stat geek. It is just that for me NBA basketball and particularly Blazer basketball is something I enjoy for entertainment. Busting my brain on these advanced stats is not my idea of fun. That should not automatically mean that I am not serious about my being a serious Blazer fan.
Blazer's Edge Ambassador to The Dream Shake Blog
LMA Rocks and B-Rex ROARS!!
RRRRRRROOOOOOOWWWWWRRRRRRSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!
he probobly should have said "serious abot understanding the game" rather than being a serious "fan"
Nobody would accuse you of not being a fan.
Boomshakalaka
Defense is half the game and Hollinger, stat geek extraordinaire, just admitted there's not a reliable stat to measure defensive prowess
which is HALF THE GAME. Curious how you’d respond to that. Do you think stats make you an expert on half the game? And just exactly how useful is that?
P.S. That’s not even approaching the admission that you can’t measure locker room leadership, chemistry, etc etc. So in all honesty, doesn’t one have to wonder if one overrates the importance of stats?
Blazer Fan
by leeroyjenkins on Mar 3, 2009 1:34 PM PST up reply actions
if you are serious about understanding the game, you can't ignore a tool as valuable as advanced stats are
you also can’t ignore the fact that they still have a long way to go, particularly with respect to defense. Advanced stats aren’t and shouldn’t be the only tool, but by not taking the time to understand what they can and can’t do, you are missing a chance to increase your understanding of the game.
Boomshakalaka
That is exactly right !
As they say, there are lies, damned lies, and statistics. BUT, speaking as an econometrician, I can tell you that statistics bring extraordinary insight into any process whose input and results can be measured, to a greater or lesser degree, statistically … and that obviously includes just about any competitive team sport you can name. Stats do one great thing: They remove emotion from the analysis — not from the enjoyment of the game, mind you; just from the evaluation of the result. As with nonstatistical analysis, you simply must apply intelligence and common sense to a stat analysis. When you do, you open another wonderful door into the world of sport, and you both appreciate it and understand it all the more.
When it comes to viewing someone's defensive prowess, there's a few advanced statistical ...
metrics that do a solid job of analyzing things. On-court/off-court stats like net eFG% allowed and net points allowed per 100 possessions. Without such stats, it’d be practically impossible to truly quantify how guys like Joel Przybilla are awesome on defense and guys like Kevin Durant suck on defense.
right
there are stats out there that are pretty good at showing defensive ability. We obviously can’t take them as the gospel, as it is hard to isolate an individual on defense, but they give a very good idea of ability.
acquire andre iguodala
How much does Sophia regret not signing up for the free French Classes at Alliance Francais
"its tough to play with one eye, unless you're a pirate." Delonte West
"una canasta a Pau en la cara" Rudy
Swell Post
I said my part about advanced stats on Truehoop. In a nutshell, I don’t hate them, I just don’t think they are the answer to everything and some people treat them like they are gospel.
Secondly, why does Dwight Jaynes care? I’m not sure who said the Blazers were running, I’m guessing Nate. Seriously though, does it matter? That was an anomaly game and what is said after it is just fluff. Why does Jaynes always have to point out a flaw and is he ever happy?
Increased Pace != Fast Break Points
Dwight Jaynes should know this having covered basketball for a living for a long time. The Blazers had a lot more possessions in that game than they normally do, because they were playing at a faster pace. That doesn’t necessarily mean that they were running the break all night.
That Hendrickson article about Joel Freeland sure got me reved up to see Joel in a Blazer uniform.
There are 3 expiring contracts and I think Joel should replace 1 of them.
Blazer's Edge Ambassador to The Dream Shake Blog
LMA Rocks and B-Rex ROARS!!
RRRRRRROOOOOOOWWWWWRRRRRRSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Anyone else notice
that Casey kept pointing that Hollinger got his pre-season projection for The Blazers wrong and and kept asking “why?”. "Was it cause you underestimated this? or was it cause you overestimated that?
lol
"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii
Ben , that Batum piece is very nice!!!
<3
Sophia
Though patience be a tired mare, yet she will plod. - William Shakespeare
Roses are red
violets in bloom
Sophia’s in love
with Nicholas Batum
-Bow4Meow
Stats are amazing if you want to have a minute understanding of a tiny portion of a basketball game
Then again one could make the argument that pretending to be a ‘master’ of, at most one-third, of what makes up a basketball player is kind of foolish.
Blazer Fan
by leeroyjenkins on Mar 3, 2009 1:36 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
You're pretty cynical...
Master of 1/3 of the game > Master of 0/3 of the game?
I think so.
We don’t fully understand how the brain works, but we still do lots of medical work on it. Are you saying we shouldn’t give people medications that help them because we don’t fully understand how they work?
My favorite comment from the TrueHoop stats article
I was a mathematics major in university. But my “inner counselor” gets cranked up when I read someone has used statistics to create the “holy grail” number to say that player X is undeniably better than player Y. The use of statistics should enlighten and provide supplemental data. Just as you would not want a doctor to diagnose directly from a patient’s chart without observing the patient, statistics will never replace observation – at best, it will supplement it and give additional information. New statistics will not answer all of the bar arguments in basketball, nor should it ever be used as “proof” on its own. Just as in your medicine example, the new statistics will be rife with misuse until the public can be informed of their ideal usage and limits.
by Corvid on Mar 3, 2009 2:04 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
I don't get it?
You mean it’s not all or nothing?
I can like Coke and Pepsi?
I can like Sergio and Bayless?
I can like stats and observation?
You must be lying. These are all choices, you cannot possibly like and use both.
I agree, but at the same time, you see so many people take that
and go violently the other way. That is. “oh, since the stats aren’t perfect”, they’re basically meaningless. A lot of the time you’ll have people arguing that they just “see” something, and so the stats must therefore be wrong, banking on their basketball knowledge being greater than the combined effort that went into the stat. It’s basically the only reason that there’s a K*be-MJ “debate”, because 99% of all statistics favor MJ.
I agree that stats are bound to get misused by people that don’t understand them and are trying to prove a point beyond the narrow scope that the stat entails, but the reactionary, “I’m a much better judge of talent than these stats” that people seem to develop is just as irritating to me.
by Royster on Mar 3, 2009 4:31 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
excellent point
stats are great. The players have to pass the eye test first. – Elgin
Blazers win BDL 2 on 2 tournament!
Skeets: i’ll close it down now … congrats. you bastards
that being said
I would like it if Mr. Pelton was working for the Blazers. – Elgin
Blazers win BDL 2 on 2 tournament!
Skeets: i’ll close it down now … congrats. you bastards
by 22baylor on Mar 3, 2009 4:41 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
The most stunning NBA statistical analysis I have seen this year
That’s my take on Kevin Pelton’s 2nd (and far more comprehensive) take on Player Age relative to Team Performance. Blazer fans simply must examine Ben’s link and the scatter plot therein, which shows that this year’s Blazers are perhaps the most significant “outlier” (winning percentage out of all proportion to their players’ age) in the latest 30-year history of the NBA.
If ever there were evidence that GM Kevin Pritchard has been justified in sticking with his youth movement and disdaining the free agency market, this is it!!! As an avid hoops fan and a professional econometrician, I salute KP2’s brilliant statistical work here. (Note to KP2: Contrary to a comment I made in a related post yesterday, I suggest you apply a second-degree polynomial to your regression; I think you may find a flattening of the age factor in the upper third of the age spectrum.)

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