Obsolete -- Daily Update and Silly Sched Projections -- Games of 3/2

by jscot on Mar 3, 2009 1:29 AM PST Comment 24 comments

Obsolete -- new daily update posted.

Projection explanation in my Sched Ahead Threads.

Yesterday's Games

Well, I predicted we would get help in one game, I just got it wrong on which one. Dallas takes a bad, bad loss at OKC. Durant and Green were out, but Westbrook had a triple-double. Right now, Dallas is getting torched by opposing PGs. They could ill afford this loss. They are looking like an 8 seed, but vulnerable if Phoenix doesn't get destroyed this week. They have games on Wednesday (home vs. Spurs) and Thursday (@ N.O.), which makes 4 in 5 nights. They had better win one of those, or there is big trouble in Dallas.

The Hornets, on a back to back, get a nice win in Philly, their fifth in a row. The 76ers' loss puts them below .500, triggering category switches and shifts in the projections. They are really struggling right now -- maybe they've been doing it with mirrors and it is catching up to them? They started bad, then had a nice run, but now....

The Clippers were without Zach (father seriously ill) and Gordon (shoulder), and you don't want to be shorthanded when the Spurs come to town, especially if they are angry about being blown out the night before. Fred Jones hit a 60 footer at the end of the first, but there wasn't much else for the Clips to enjoy.

Projections

1. L.A. — 65.5 wins.
2. S.A. — 55.5.
3. Denver — 54.5, down from 54.8.
4. Portland — 52.1.
5. Houston — 51.9, up from 51.5.
6. N.O. — 51.8, up from 51.1.
7. Utah — 47.1, down from 47.7, but up from 8th.   Hit by the Philly switch.
8. Dallas — 46.6, down from 47.8 in 7th.  Hurt by the Philly switch and the loss, both.
9. Phoenix — 45.9, up from 45.8.

Games of Note Tonight

Phoenix at Orlando. The Suns begin to run the guantlet, and it isn't an easy place to start. They've been winning based on Shaq dominating the opposing center. That might not be so easy in this one.
Denver at Detroit. 'Melo has been suspended for some stupidity or other. Detroit won in Denver, but can't beat a Western contender in Detroit (0-7). AI is probably out, but that means Rip and Rodney start, which is probably better. This one could be very interesting. If Detroit wins it, we have an outside shot at first in the division by the end of the week. If Denver wins, Detroit drops below .500 and there is more category switching.
Raptors at Rockets. Raptors cannot fly high enough to prevent being shot down by rockets. Houston ought to win without much trouble.
Memphis at L@kers. Maybe Marc beats up big brother. Maybe not.

The Rockets and L.A. games are probably irrelevant. The Phoenix game could begin to open a wider gap, as far as nailing down that playoff spot. The Denver game could have an impact on the division race. Denver still has the edge the rest of the way, even if they lose that game, and they could still be caught even if they win it, but it's a big game -- a winnable but tough road game.

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Comments

Detroit is going to win that game I think

Something clicked for them at the end of that road trip where they won in Orlando and Boston.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Mar 3, 2009 1:40 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I hope so

So inconsistent, though, and Denver will be tough. There’s the “Everything is against us” factor — Anthony out, on the road, Pistons are hot with wins in Orlando and Boston, etc. There’s also the revenge factor — Detroit won in Denver, and Billups returns not having beat his old team — they will also want that for him. Those things make it the kind of game where somebody unexpected plays out of his head for Denver and they steal the win.

But chances are good you are correct. And that puts it all in play when we go to Denver this week.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 3, 2009 1:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

What clicked was losing AI

Addition by subtraction

There won't be clean officiating in the NBA until David Stern is forcibly removed by the US Congress in 2013 for fixing games.

by 123_G.O._RipCity on Mar 3, 2009 1:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

exactly

Want more aggressiveness? Try less Baylesslessness.

by prezofdeath on Mar 3, 2009 11:40 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That 2 game difference between Denver and us in your Projections has never looked closer

There won't be clean officiating in the NBA until David Stern is forcibly removed by the US Congress in 2013 for fixing games.

by 123_G.O._RipCity on Mar 3, 2009 1:51 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Just remember

Their schedule ahead is easier, so even if we pass them this week, it doesn’t mean we’re favored. It just means we have a chance.

Same with Utah. They could easily be in first at the end of this week. That won’t mean they are favored.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 3, 2009 4:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I know but I don't remember the Silly Sched Projection ever being as close as 2 games.

I looked at their schedule today and I see them winning 55 games this year, but if they drop to Detroit and Portland this week I would then have them only winning 53 and we would really have a shot.

There won't be clean officiating in the NBA until David Stern is forcibly removed by the US Congress in 2013 for fixing games.

by 123_G.O._RipCity on Mar 3, 2009 4:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The Detroit loss

would only cost them about .4 in the projections, because the spreadsheet doesn’t have high expectations of them winning on the road.

If they lost at home to Portland, it would probably cost them about .7 in the projections. They’ve been good but not great at home against winning teams. I’m not looking at the spreadsheet right now, so don’t now, but I’m guessing it gives them a 70% shot at a win. So those two losses might cost them about 1.1 games in their projection. Most of their win total is built on games against losing teams, where they’ve been dominant, and neither of these games touch that.

We only have about a 30% chance of winning at Denver according to the projection methodology (probably less, in reality). So if we win that game, we gain about 0.7 wins (the 1.0 we accomplished vs. the 0.3 expected). So if they lose at Detroit and we win at Denver (and win our other games, we get very close to them. If they also lose at Utah (very possible), we would pass them — in other words, if they lose three games this week, including to us, and we win all of ours, we’ll be ahead in the projections. But even if they lose to Detroit and us, if they then won at Utah the spreadsheet would reward them and they would still be ahead.

Of course, if they win at Detroit, that skews everything. Because then, Detroit becomes a losing team, which means the win wouldn’t be that valuable to them. But it would also make our two wins against Detroit less valuable, so it would not only help their projection, but lower ours. Which just shows how silly these projections can be in some cases.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 3, 2009 5:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Sillyness

The .500 thing is just a messed up factor, doesn’t really make the predictions silly. You could create an equation that weights each team’s individual record instead of just winning/losing, but I think for the sake or your sanity (and everyone elses) you should just stick with the .500 cutoff.

Denver hates their schedule this week, but loves it the rest of the way.

by Zaig on Mar 3, 2009 9:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Raptors don't fly

Utah is a half game behind us. Not cool.

Karma

by Sabonis4Ever on Mar 3, 2009 2:04 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Not talking the dinosaur here...

Raptor means bird of prey

There won't be clean officiating in the NBA until David Stern is forcibly removed by the US Congress in 2013 for fixing games.

by 123_G.O._RipCity on Mar 3, 2009 2:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Har har

But we are talking the dinosaur.

Karma

by Sabonis4Ever on Mar 3, 2009 2:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

So you are both right

There won't be clean officiating in the NBA until David Stern is forcibly removed by the US Congress in 2013 for fixing games.

by 123_G.O._RipCity on Mar 3, 2009 2:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think the Toronto team

is extinct. They ought to be, as many games as they’ve lost, but they are in the East.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 3, 2009 4:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

They need an infusion of Sergio, Outlaw and Cap space to get them going next season

Maybe we could be nice and give that to them for Jose Calderon

There won't be clean officiating in the NBA until David Stern is forcibly removed by the US Congress in 2013 for fixing games.

by 123_G.O._RipCity on Mar 3, 2009 4:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think his D is worse than Sergio's

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 3, 2009 5:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You're not allowed to speak of of Calderon here

by Zaig on Mar 3, 2009 9:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

thanks.

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.

by faith on Mar 3, 2009 8:18 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

The Phoenix Schedule over the next 6 games

finally lets me breathe easier. They won’t be favored in more than one of these games. Even considering there win against LA, this team can still suffer huge droughts while not playing any defense. 3-3 in the next 6 games would be a miracle for them. Even if the Blazers lose to both Denver and LA they would still gain a game in the loss column. 4 games up with 17 to go. The playoff drought is over.

by TPfor3 on Mar 3, 2009 8:37 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Right

Phoenix won’t admit it, but if they come out of the next 6 with 2 wins, they will feel pretty good about it.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 3, 2009 1:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

FWIW

Here are my current projections:

SAS 57-25
DEN 55-27
POR 55-27
NOR 54-28
HOU 51-31
UTA 51-31
DAL 50-32
PHX 50-32

by Balian on Mar 3, 2009 10:54 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Hey Nostradomus

Does this mean we split the remaining two games with Denver and they win tiebreaker, or do they win both to win tiebreaker?

by teenagemutantninjabayless on Mar 3, 2009 10:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't see that

Phoenix doesn’t hit 50, and I’ll be surprised if Dallas does. Hard schedules ahead. I’m doubtful about us hitting 55 now, I’m thinking 53. Still hoping for 55, but we will have to come up with some really, really tough road wins to do it.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 3, 2009 11:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

The win totals for all teams are a little inflated because I don’t take into accounts of upsets. The win totals are probably 2-5 games off. There will be upsets. However, the game spreads for the teams are accurate I believe.

by Balian on Mar 4, 2009 12:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs