Projections after 3/28

by jscot on Mar 28, 2009 11:47 PM PDT

Projection explanation in my Sched Ahead Threads.

Projections

1	L.A.	66.2
2	S.A.	54.5
3	Denver	53.9
4	Houston	52.4
5	Portland	51.6
6	N.O.	49.9
7	Utah	48.9
8	Dallas	47.9
9	Phoenix	45.4

Little movement from yesterday, no unexpected results. Too bad, I was really hoping for a Warriors upset over the Nuggets. Only hopes now, are for Utah to win in Denver, Denver to drop their back to back at Minnesota, or NY and/or OKC to pull a huge upset in Denver. We probably need two of those to happen to catch the Nuggets. Don't bet your house on even one of those happening.

While there was little change in the projections today, that's not a bad thing, when you look at where we stand. Only 9 games left, and we're still projecting more than a game and a half ahead of 6th. Every game that goes by without diminishing that gap increases our chances of maintaining it.

We remain behind Houston, but we likely aren't finishing ahead of Houston unless we win there. In all probability, a loss there means we finish behind them (or tied, with the tiebreaker going to them). In all probability, a win there means we finish ahead of them (or tied, with the tiebreaker going to us). Funny how one game might determine so much. Would be nice to send a message that we can win on their court going into the playoffs.

Of course, N.O. and Utah are still capable of making a run. But the Hornets had better start that run today at home against the Spurs, or I think you can forget about them challenging our seeding. Their run-in is too tough -- they can't afford to drop games.

Keep an eye on Phoenix. They should beat the Kings, but it was a tough overtime loss last night. We want them to win, and Dallas to lose in Cleveland, so that Phoenix is still hopeful and motivated for Houston. If Houston wins that road game at Phoenix, they are going to feel pretty secure in that 4th seed and thinking about passing Denver for #3. If Phoenix wins it, it just gets more and more fun.

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i'd really love

for phx to be in the playoffs…sadly it’ll take close to a miracle now.

The most hated Blazer is like the least hottest supermodel - Sabonis4Ever

by Philthyanimal on Mar 28, 2009 11:49 PM PDT reply actions

This has got to be a rec-to-comment ratio RECord...

Tweet me!

by prezofdeath on Mar 29, 2009 12:32 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

Yep, it's all on autopilot right now.

Jscot should attempt an experiment where he types a bunch of words and numbers that appear to be in this same format, but upon closer examination one finds that they are just a summary of the items he found when cleaning under his couch. Give it the same “Projections…” title and watch it get rec’d straight to the top.

Nevertheless, still great work, Mr. J.S. Cot.

Usually the first thing I click on in the sidebar.

The cowards never started
The weak died along the way
Only the strong survived
They were the Trailblazers

by lukeyhere on Mar 29, 2009 7:31 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

LOLOL

There have been some where I hardly said anything at all that got rec’d. Which convinced me that it isn’t me people like — they like my spreadsheet.

Next year, I think I’ll just set up a robot to spew out the projections and save myself some time.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 30, 2009 12:46 AM PDT up reply actions

I can't believe that I find myself in the position of having to want the Jizz to win...

I HATE THE JIZZ!!!!

I hate ’em! I hate ’em! I hate ’em! I hate ’em! I hate ’em! I hate ’em!

But Denver must lose…to the Jizz….

If only they could both lose that game….

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LMA - Putting the POWER in POWER FORWARD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LMA Rocks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I <3 LMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
36:12 Mins, 11-16 FGs, 7-8 FTs, +22, 3 Off, 12 Rebs, 2 Ast, 3 Blks, 29 Points!!! LMA vs Suns 3-26-09

by LaMarvelous on Mar 29, 2009 12:37 AM PDT reply actions

I have a good feeling about the game in Houston

Just getting it out there. I think they have a good chance to split the games between Houston and San Antone. SAS will be traveling to SA on the second night of a back to back, just like us. I’m hoping we’ll gain some ground on the road. C’mon dudes!

by bamkapow on Mar 29, 2009 7:55 AM PDT reply actions

Road game vs. Houston

I have the same feeling … the Roy mojo and a (don’t roll your eyes) breakout game by Oden.

quid Latine dictum sit, altum viditur

by dvcastle on Mar 29, 2009 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions

I think Oden vs. Yao is a good matchup for us

We haven’t seen it yet. But I think having Greg and Joel will mostly negate Yao.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 30, 2009 12:47 AM PDT up reply actions

At this point, it's really mano-a-mano with Houston, fighting for home court advantage in the playoffs.

Everything else is terciary.

Winning in Houston this coming week is PIVOTAL.

Pontiff of the Pryz for Prez Posse...

by timbo on Mar 29, 2009 8:33 AM PDT reply actions

agreed

but let’s not look past Utah. It won’t do to win in Houston if we first end this homestand just 2-2.

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Mar 29, 2009 8:39 AM PDT up reply actions

were you going for "tertiary"

not a slam…just curious

"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii

by 92wastheyear on Mar 29, 2009 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions

I got the spelling error indicator but was too lazy to figure it out. Tertiary. What a stupid spelling.

Pontiff of the Pryz for Prez Posse...

by timbo on Mar 29, 2009 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions

no kidding re stupid spelling

Spelling drives me crazy….I will avoid some words just cause I can’t spell them

"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii

by 92wastheyear on Mar 29, 2009 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Tortuary

quid Latine dictum sit, altum viditur

by dvcastle on Mar 29, 2009 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions

I like it.

"Aneurysm".

When Outlaw wins a game on a last-second shot, it’s called an "annthefaneurysm". QualityPie

by annthefan on Mar 30, 2009 12:10 AM PDT up reply actions

'Tertiary'

just sayin’

by LaoTzu on Mar 29, 2009 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions

Question on playoff home-away schedules

If I remember correctly, its 2-3-2 ONLY in the finals, but otherwise—i.e. the 1st round— its 2-2-1-1-1? Is that right?

Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".

...no seriously--stop.

by nima on Mar 29, 2009 9:10 AM PDT reply actions

yes

by kickbrass on Mar 29, 2009 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions

It is

by Blenzer on Mar 29, 2009 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions

Yeah and I really hate

2-3-2 format……the Underdog is required (almost) to win at least 3 in a row to pull off the upset (how ofter to championship quality teams go on 3 game losing streaks?) and if you are the favorite and take care of home court and the dog does the same, you come back home down in the series 2-3 and have to win 2 in row. Yuk….There really is no need for the 3-2-3 anymore (if there ever was) with all flights either chartered or on company jets. Come on Dave Stern …switch it back

"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii

by 92wastheyear on Mar 29, 2009 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions

errrg 2-3-2 format (in 2nd to last line)

"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii

by 92wastheyear on Mar 29, 2009 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions

How do you want it?

2-3-2 doesn’t bother me.

by tominhawaii on Mar 29, 2009 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions

2-2-1-1-1 like all the series that get you there

2-3-2 is just idiotic in basketball. homecourt is a big factor, unlike in baseball. the underdog is forced to either win 3 straight (almost impossible) and steal one of the last two on the road, or else to steal 1 of the first 2 on the road, win 2 of 3 at home and then 1 of the final two again. 2-3-2 gives the favorite a much bigger advantage than 2-2-1-1-1 does

How did you guys win that?
"We scored enough points. We scored 107, they scored 105.
-Nate McMillan Postgame, 3/4/2009

by douglast on Mar 29, 2009 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions

Sounds like an underdog front runner

I hope there will be a time when Portland is not the underdog.

You have to pwactice.

by tominhawaii on Mar 29, 2009 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions

Just kidding about the "front runner" thing

Seriously though. I won’t complain when the Blazers have home court.

You have to pwactice.

by tominhawaii on Mar 29, 2009 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions

Maybe this year!

The Blazers could mathematically have home court in the first round and in the NBA finals. Not likely. Especially with Stern Co. manipulating the refs. But it is possible.

by LaoTzu on Mar 29, 2009 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions

Of course

First round, we get home court vs. Houston, and win in seven.

S.A. (2nd seed) gets Dallas, and whips them soundly.

Denver (3rd) gets N.O., who suddenly get healthy, and the Hornets beat them in six.

L.A. (1st) gets Utah, who steals one of the first two in L.A., wins the next two at home, gets blown out in L.A. in game five, but holds the L@kers off in a titanic struggle game six, in 7 overtimes.

Second round, we win the first two at home against Utah, steal one in SLC, and close them out in game five at home. The Hornets battle S.A. into game seven, Chris Paul shuts down Parker in the final game, and N.O. advances to the WCF.

We beat the Hornets in seven, splitting the first two at home, but also splitting the next two in N.O., then holding home court in games 5 & 7. Western Conference champions.

In the Finals, we face Miami, who has been carried there singlehandedly by Wade, in a vain attempt to show that he is the real MVP. Wade averages 48 ppg and 14 apg through the Eastern Conference playoffs.

In the Finals, we hold him to 29 ppg and 11 apg in the four games in Portland, but he goes for 53 ppg and 16 apg in the three games in Miami. It is an epic Finals for the ages, in which they steal the first game in Portland and go up 3-1, only to have us win game five in Miami in double overtime with Brandon Roy hitting our last 6 shots and finishing with 57 points.

We then come home and blow them out in game six to tie the series, then hold them off down the stretch in game seven after Brandon, Steve, and Rudy all twist their ankles in the third quarter, and Sergio and Jerryd come in and shut down their backcourt and carry us to a 4 point win.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 30, 2009 8:10 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

I think you need to open a window

The fumes from something must be getting to you. Orlando will come out of the East.

You have to pwactice.

by tominhawaii on Mar 30, 2009 8:40 AM PDT up reply actions

you should write basketball stories

Hear comes Rodriguez, no look to FerNANDEZ - WHAT A PLAY!!?!! HOW did they Pull That Off - FERNANDEZ THE STEAL - GOOD IF IT GOES -AAAAAAAAAAAAAAOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHH!!!!!!1111!!!!!!!!! - Kevin Harlan

by Screen Name on Mar 30, 2009 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions

2-2-1-1-1

Like the rest of the rounds….a real slug fest

"You're welcome friend
I love you."
- Tom "Dragline" inHawaii

by 92wastheyear on Mar 29, 2009 10:22 AM PDT reply actions

1-1-1-1-1-1-1

Now that would be interesting.

by dario argento on Mar 29, 2009 4:02 PM PDT reply actions

The players would hate it.

...

by BR7formvp on Mar 29, 2009 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Houston's Schedule of Death

Wed 01 @ Phoenix
Fri 03 @ LA Lakers
Sun 05 vs Portland
Tue 07 vs Orlando
Thu 09 @ Sacramento
Fri 10 @ Golden State
Mon 13 vs New Orleans
Wed 15 @ Dallas

That is a tough schedule down the stretch. Houston is only a game in the loss column in front of Portland. Portland could easily catch Houston for home court. If we win in Houston, it is very likely. The Blazers need at least 2-1 in the Utah, Denver and Fakers home games and to beat the bad teams on the road, we have a real shot even if we lose in Houston.

Does it feel to you like the Blazers are peeking at the right time? The easy fast break points, the dominance on the boards, the tremendous defense, at least with the starters and at the end of games, the passing and the great individual performances being put up — feels like we are ready to make a splash. I would love to see us go X-2 the rest of the way and garner home court.

I’m glad it’s not Dallas in Rd 1 because we have trouble keeping contact with players on frenetic teams, or the Fakers who will bring their refs. Anybody else, perhaps except SAS, I think are fine match-ups that could go either way.

by LaoTzu on Mar 29, 2009 5:51 PM PDT reply actions

Houston has been good against winning teams this year

8-10 on the road, 12-6 at home. The reason they are not firmly in second is because they are only 10-8 on the road against losing teams.

It’s a tough schedule, but don’t expect them to fold.

We are one behind in the loss column. If we lose in Houston, that would be two, and it would give them the tiebreaker, which would mean we woudl need them to lose 3 more games than us over the rest of the schedule. I would say that is possible, but not very likely.

I think if we want to beat out Houston, we probably need to win there. I expect they will win at least one of their games at Phoenix, LA, and Dallas. They could drop two of them. They could lose to Orlando at home. They could even lose at Golden State on a back to back. Perhaps if we win everything else, we could beat them out even if we lose at Houston — but I don’t expect to win everything else.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 30, 2009 12:56 AM PDT up reply actions

I do not want to face Houston or Utah

give me New Orleans or Denver instead.

by jksnake99 on Mar 29, 2009 9:23 PM PDT reply actions

I want to see us face Houston with Greg

before I decide whether that is a good or bad matchup for us.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 30, 2009 12:57 AM PDT up reply actions

Blazers vs Houston in the playoffs ..

.. at least that’s what it’s looking like more and more. The main question is whether we get home court in a 4-seed vs 5-seed match up.

And keep in mind that history says that the 4th vs 5th seeds is the one with the greatest chance of “upsets” .. not that a 5th beating a 4th is that great of an upset.

Blazers vs Houston is an interesting match up for us to start previewing.

For B-Edgers, there are a lot of interesting possible twists:

     - The Joel-Greg combo vs Yao.

     - Rick Adelman, the coach of the Clyde era and who many of us like, versus the new Blazers.

by jayfisher on Mar 29, 2009 11:44 PM PDT reply actions

I prefer the Houston matchup

The games thus far have been very competitive. I think it will be hard fought, and I think we have a solid chance to win. I think mentally, Houston is a similiar team to Portland. Remember, Houston has a history of getting knocked out in the first round.

I dread playing Denver. Not because they are so much better than us, but because I think it will be an ugly series.

by Blazin' on Mar 30, 2009 12:48 AM PDT reply actions

And...

looking over New Orleans, Utah and Dallas’ schedule (in effect what Jscot has been doing all season mathematically) a 5 seed and a date with Houston seems most probable. If we stay on it, it’ll take some big road wins for either the Hornets or Jazz to catch us.

That game in Houston might be very interesting…

by Blazin' on Mar 30, 2009 12:54 AM PDT up reply actions

I agree

I think if we win in Houston, we have an outside chance at still catching Denver, but it probably means a four seed, dropping Houston to five. If we lose, we’re probably a five seed.

New Orleans kept themselves in it with a nice win at home against the Spurs, despite being short-handed, but I think their schedule is still too tough.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 30, 2009 1:02 AM PDT up reply actions

Your projections are looking pretty good right now, Jscot

Seems like 5th is where you’ve had Portland for much of the season. With standard deviated root mean square histograms and some suches accounted for. Right? :)

Well, Portland has been very consistent this year. I think what has surprised me is how other teams in the West have struggled. Our success against the East really kept us in this fight and the recent home games against LA, SA, and PHO suggest that we are getting our Western Conference sea legs just in time. Pretty impressive. Nate is also looking pretty good right now.

by Blazin' on Mar 30, 2009 1:18 AM PDT up reply actions