Projections after 3/27

by jscot on Mar 28, 2009 1:26 AM PDT Comment 24 comments

Projection explanation in my Sched Ahead Threads.

Projections

1	L.A.	66.2
2	S.A.	54.5
3	Denver	53.8
4	Houston	52.3
5	Portland	51.5
6	N.O.	49.9
7	Utah	48.7
8	Dallas	47.9
9	Phoenix	45.5

Well, the NW division is almost certainly gone. The Nuggets basically won it with their sweep in Florida before the All-Star break. Their remaining schedule was too easy. There's still a chance, but they have to drop at least one should-win game, and we have to have no more slip-ups.

That's too bad. On the other hand, it is now looking like a straight battle between us and Houston for the 4-5 spots. The Hornets have a lot of tough games left, and aren't playing well. Utah is playing well but the schedule is brutal. Dallas has had some good wins and some bad losses, and has injury trouble.

Dallas' loss last night virtually guarantees they won't be catching us. It has another positive impact as well -- it allows Phoenix to keep believing. The Suns play Dallas one more time, so they have to feel they have a chance. As long as they keep believing, they are very dangerous -- which means they might dish out some unexpected losses to some other teams. Tonight in Utah will be a real slugfest. It would be great if the Suns could win at least their next 3. If the Suns win in Utah and Sacramento, and Dallas loses at Cleveland, it gets very close.

Keep an eye on the Nuggets tonight as well. Back to backs aren't easy, even at home. When they are against a team like Golden State, they are harder. They should win, but this can be tricky -- they could give back what they gained against Dallas. If so, we're still alive in the NW. Probably won't happen, but you never know.

9 recs | Comment 24 comments

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Comments

First!

I feel like this is a mainpage rather than fanpost.

I totally agree, for what it’s worth, that we will need to get lucky to catch Denver. I do see us passing Houston and getting home court in Rd 1.

Go Blazers!
Viva Rudy!

by LaoTzu on Mar 28, 2009 1:36 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

I check BE particularly for the analysis of the projections. Nice work jscot

by lurtsman on Mar 28, 2009 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I predicted 51 wins

It sounded like a nice number, and 31 is my lucky number and is a lucky amount of losses. That would be neat if I get it exactly right, since it helps my street cred.

I don’t wanna face the Rockets in the 1st round though, Jscot. Do sumthin’ about that, ’kay?

If Oden keeps getting his feet wet and gets his dander up in time for the playoffs, all bets are off. Who knows what we could do? We dangerous.

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Mar 28, 2009 1:41 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

Rockets? Who cares?

They’ve been lucky so far, they haven’t had to face the Wrath of Oden.

We’ll win in Houston, which will give us the tiebreaker and virtually assure home court. They might be able to hold on for the fifth seed, but they are due for a downward spiral, so they might have some stumbles. Let’s assume the do, indeed, hold on for fifth.

We will then face them in the first round. We will drop one of our first two at home, just due to first round jitters. Probably game one. Then, we’ll crush them in revenge in game two.

Game three will be hard-fought all the way, but Brandon will win it for us at the end. Game four, we’ll know we have their number now, and we’ll win by approximately 10-12. Game five will be an intense, hard-fought game all the way to the end, but Travis will knock down 43,000 clutch shots from impossible angles in the fourth, and we will pull it out.

I think Houston is a decent matchup for us.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 28, 2009 2:02 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

What I don't like

Is Battier and Artest on Roy, which has been very successful for them in the past either together or back when Artest was a King, and then US depending on LMA versus Scola (also a good defender) or for Oden to play like he will a year or two from now.

I think Roy is a prime time player who will make his legend in the playoffs, but Artest and Battier will tag team him and it’ll be tougher than it looks. I like how we match up next year, with Oden able to match Yao and LMA even better, since we’ll be able to handle Roy having to work his ass off for every point.

We can beat ‘em, but I think we can beat anyone in the 1st round because of how good we are at home. I just don’t trust anyone else to step up over a 7 games series to account for the hit Roy’s production will take with the effective double teams Battier and Artest will do.

Obviously every other other team we face in the playoffs would throw whatever they got at Roy and make life tough, but no one has two premiere perimeter defenders who have given Roy problems before like Artest and Battier.

Kna’ wha’ I mean, bro?

Mortimer

by Mortimer on Mar 28, 2009 2:11 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

I'm just glad we're not going to have to match up with Atlanta in the first round

by tominhawaii on Mar 28, 2009 2:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

how many wins do we need to assure that won’t happen?

The cowards never started
The weak died along the way
Only the strong survived
They were the Trailblazers

by lukeyhere on Mar 28, 2009 7:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

At least 3 more

That’s why today is a must win game.

by tominhawaii on Mar 28, 2009 8:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

51.5 wins for us

If we lose to Memphis, can we count that as our half-game?
Thanks for the daily updates…

It's spelled "PRZYBILLA."
vanillathrillagorillaprzybilla

by RenoBlazerFan on Mar 28, 2009 1:56 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't respond to impossible scenarios

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 28, 2009 1:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

ohhh man. Knock on wood dude.

How dare you tempt the jinx?

"Every time Troutlaw touches the ball, I pop an anti-anxiety pill."

by DaNoose on Mar 28, 2009 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

golden state might be much tougher for denver

if stephen jackson was not out, but my understanding is that he’s hurt.

OT-mortimer mentions that 31 is his lucky number. i myself am superstitious about 13. the relationship continues in that 13 squared = 169; 31 squared = 961.

ignacio

by ignacio on Mar 28, 2009 2:27 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Which means it would be Blazers v. Rockets in the playoffs with home court advantage the thing being fought over...

On the other hand, it is now looking like a straight battle between us and Houston for the 4-5 spots.

Pontiff of the Pryz for Prez Posse...

by timbo on Mar 28, 2009 8:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

for all the emphasis

I and near everybody else have been putting on the Denver/Portland showdown, that Houston game is every bit as important at this point, if not more so. If the Blazers can find a way to pull that one out…

The Michael Ruffin of BlazersEdge, cuz Amlmart said so.

by BlazersOrBust on Mar 28, 2009 8:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I still think Phoenix goes 9-1 or 8-2 from here. It will be very close.

Dallas’ loss last night virtually guarantees they won’t be catching us. It has another positive impact as well — it allows Phoenix to keep believing. The Suns play Dallas one more time, so they have to feel they have a chance. As long as they keep believing, they are very dangerous — which means they might dish out some unexpected losses to some other teams. Tonight in Utah will be a real slugfest. It would be great if the Suns could win at least their next 3. If the Suns win in Utah and Sacramento, and Dallas loses at Cleveland, it gets very close.

Pontiff of the Pryz for Prez Posse...

by timbo on Mar 28, 2009 8:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I think

that it’ll be Dallas on the outside looking in.

The Michael Ruffin of BlazersEdge, cuz Amlmart said so.

by BlazersOrBust on Mar 28, 2009 8:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That would

Not make Cuban very happy at all.

I hope I can get a bunch of championships, like 15. " - Greg Oden

by mxpx5678 on Mar 28, 2009 9:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It would make

Paul Allen very happy

by keepfryealive on Mar 28, 2009 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I still think Phoenix is doomed

If they had held on for that Utah win, maybe not, but that probably sealed it.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 28, 2009 11:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Matchups with Houston and Denver aren't too attractive in my opinion, particularly without

I just hate Denver and they seem to have no respect for us..

And Houston presents too many defensive issues for Roy to be pleased with that matchup.

Also, i hope Dallas can move passed Utah, because it would really screw with the Lakers if they had to play Utah in the first round.. that could be a real rough series for them.. If they play Dallas, it will be an easy sweep

by Rudy4three on Mar 28, 2009 10:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

*without homecourt

by Rudy4three on Mar 28, 2009 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

We have to make'm respect us.

By beating them.

I like hating Denver. They are a perfect antagonist/ division-rival for us.

Heck even my mom hates denver.

"Every time Troutlaw touches the ball, I pop an anti-anxiety pill."

by DaNoose on Mar 28, 2009 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, I've been hoping

for that L.A./Utah matchup. Utah healthy is perhaps the most dangerous team outside of the Spurs. It’s not really fair that a team should work hard to win 65 games, only to be messed over by the seedings and have to face a healthy and resurgent Utah. I will find it in my heart to not cry over it if it happens though.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 28, 2009 11:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs