Projections after 3/26

by jscot on Mar 27, 2009 12:19 AM PDT Comment 56 comments

Projection explanation in my Sched Ahead Threads.

Projections

1	L.A.	66.0
2	S.A.	54.3
3	Denver	53.1
4	Houston	52.3
5	Portland	51.5
6	N.O.	50.8
7	Utah	48.7
8	Dallas	48.4
9	Phoenix	45.5

Well, that was satisfying. Put them away early enough to rest their starters for Utah.

Memo to League: Portland is back in the playoffs, and they earned it.

Memo to LMA doubters: Don't give up on this dude yet.

Memo to Denver: Don't assume this division race is over yet.

Memo to Phoenix: You still have a chance, but I highly recommend that you win in Utah on Saturday. This recommendation is purely altruistic on my part. Really. There are no ulterior motives behind this suggestion, none at all.

Memo to Houston, Denver, and N.O.: You really do want to finish ahead of Portland, so you don't have to play them without home court advantage in the first round.

Memo to defensive coaches: Don't count on packing it in against Portland when Rudy Fernandez is in the game.

Memo to Blazer fans: Did we really just blow out a Western contender with Gregzilla combining for 2 rebounds in 45 minutes? Yes. Yes, we did. We're still in the thick of the 4-6 seeding battle, with a reasonable shot at 3.

Memo to Sergio fans: Celebrate!

Memo to Jerryd fans: Celebrate and Wait!

Tonight, the Hornets have a real Banana Peel at NY. This could be a very tough one for them with their injury problems. Drop this, and they can probably forget a top four seed.

Denver plays at Dallas. Dallas has an opportunity (thanks to us) to extend their lead on Phoenix, and threaten Utah, at least, in the seedings battle. Should be a fun game -- either result provides benefit to us. If Dallas wins, we catch Denver in the loss column. If Denver wins, it solidifies our lead over Dallas, giving them a home loss to offset the one we dropped to Philly. Either way, it helps us.

12 recs | Comment 56 comments

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Today will be a good day.

Bedge or go home.

by Ojala John on Mar 27, 2009 12:22 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I been waiting all night for this.

by tevisthe4th on Mar 27, 2009 12:22 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

You, my friend, need to get a life

(says the guy who takes the time to write it up)

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 27, 2009 12:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very good write up

I’m rooting for the mavs to win against denver because I’m a big enough homer to think we have a shot at the three seed.

by lurtsman on Mar 27, 2009 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If the Mavs win, we do have a shot

but it’s still a pretty slim one, unfortunately. If Denver loses tonight, we probably have to go at least 7-2, maybe even 8-1, leading up to that last game — and then beat them. It’s possible, but pretty difficult — we’ve got a lot more tough games on our schedule than they have.

If Denver loses tonight, and then manages to drop their home game against G.S. on the back to back the next night, then it’s all to play for.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 27, 2009 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Love it

Keep em coming!

by Powder842 on Mar 27, 2009 12:24 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Everytime I saw our big guy get a rebound I was like atta boy greg

oh, wait that LMA. He was everthing I want and more in a PF tonight. How did they think that barnes could guard him?

by tevisthe4th on Mar 27, 2009 12:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

you should've seen the pregame stuff over at Bright Side of the Sun

-Barnes would shut down LMA
-their bench would outscore our bench

wow.

It's spelled "PRZYBILLA."
vanillathrillagorillaprzybilla

by RenoBlazerFan on Mar 27, 2009 1:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes.

Wow.

Bedge or go home.

by Ojala John on Mar 27, 2009 1:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think their bench did outscore our bench...

"There are a few teams you have to watch out for in the fourth quarter."
"Yeah, but Portland definitely is not one of them."

-New Orleans Hornets broadcasters at the end of the third quarter with the Hornets leading 74-59. Portland later ends up winning 97-89.

"They don't mind him shooting that shot at all. Rudy Fernandez is not that great of a 3pt shooter."

-New Orleans Hornets broadcasters right after a Rudy Fernandez missed 3pter. Rudy Fernandez finished the game with three 3pters on six attempts.

by Tofu Anonymous on Mar 27, 2009 1:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

50-48

"There are a few teams you have to watch out for in the fourth quarter."
"Yeah, but Portland definitely is not one of them."

-New Orleans Hornets broadcasters at the end of the third quarter with the Hornets leading 74-59. Portland later ends up winning 97-89.

"They don't mind him shooting that shot at all. Rudy Fernandez is not that great of a 3pt shooter."

-New Orleans Hornets broadcasters right after a Rudy Fernandez missed 3pter. Rudy Fernandez finished the game with three 3pters on six attempts.

by Tofu Anonymous on Mar 27, 2009 1:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

wouldn't that be because they played the entire 4th quarter?

"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"

by Magnum on Mar 27, 2009 1:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

yup

but just saying that their bench did still outscore our bench.

ours was just more effective.

"There are a few teams you have to watch out for in the fourth quarter."
"Yeah, but Portland definitely is not one of them."

-New Orleans Hornets broadcasters at the end of the third quarter with the Hornets leading 74-59. Portland later ends up winning 97-89.

"They don't mind him shooting that shot at all. Rudy Fernandez is not that great of a 3pt shooter."

-New Orleans Hornets broadcasters right after a Rudy Fernandez missed 3pter. Rudy Fernandez finished the game with three 3pters on six attempts.

by Tofu Anonymous on Mar 27, 2009 1:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I happily stand corrected

It's spelled "PRZYBILLA."
vanillathrillagorillaprzybilla

by RenoBlazerFan on Mar 27, 2009 1:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wonder what that margin was after 3 quarters

Something tells me we had a double digit lead.

by Zaig on Mar 27, 2009 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I always wait for these projections after games.

Thanks jscot <3

I miss Martell. Come back soon!

by mannyfresh1 on Mar 27, 2009 12:32 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

You really wait for these?

LOL. You also need a life, almost as much as I do.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 27, 2009 12:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well not really wait for them.

I just like to read them… much like Dave’s recap’s.

I miss Martell. Come back soon!

by mannyfresh1 on Mar 27, 2009 12:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

recaps*

blah……

I miss Martell. Come back soon!

by mannyfresh1 on Mar 27, 2009 12:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Usually this article is the first thing I look for on BE after reading the Ben and Dave articles

I look through the recommended fanposts, and if it isn’t there I search below, find it, and make sure to rec it up so others can find it.

These have become a staple of my daily Blazer reading.

I also love comparing your schedule ahead projections with Hollingers PER “expected” results. You have Denver projected for 2 more wins than Hollinger does, this late in the season that seems pretty significant. So I will be interested to see how your simplistic model compares to his uber stat oriented model.

Keep up the great work.

by diskord on Mar 27, 2009 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the nice comments

The difference is due to two factors, probably. The first is narrow margins of victory for Denver. Hollinger’s model says that narrow margins of victory predict some losses for them. My model looks at their 5 remaining home games against losing teams, and gives only a .33 chance in 5 (or about a 6.6% chance) that they lose one of them. Hollinger’s model is probably basically expecting a loss in one of those five, because they have had a lot of relatively close wins.

The other factor is that I think he weights the last 10 games more heavily, and they haven’t been impressive in the last 10 — 6-4, the only quality win at Denver, losses at Utah and Phoenix, a home loss to Houston, and a horrible road loss to Sacramento.

His projection may be more accurate than mine. My guess is they lose at Dallas (Nene is still out), at L.A., and drop one more somewhere that they shouldn’t, and come to Portland 52-29. Whether we’ll have 51 or 52 wins at that point remains to be seen. We could have 53, but will have to steal one in Texas and not give anything away elsewhere to do that.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 27, 2009 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Swell post jscot

Memo to Everyone: Go Blazers!

by tominhawaii on Mar 27, 2009 3:09 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

i don't it has generally settled in just how good lamarcus can be

ignacio

by ignacio on Mar 27, 2009 3:32 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I didn´t wait for this recap.

It just happened that I read by accident. I´m accident prone.

Sergio + Rudy = 16
Sergio + Bayless = 16
Batum 8+8=16

by amlmart1 on Mar 27, 2009 5:25 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

You just got out of bed, I bet

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 27, 2009 5:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, I still wonder why so many people come to my bed to talk about their problems. Thankfully I got up.

Sergio + Rudy = 16
Sergio + Bayless = 16
Batum 8+8=16

by amlmart1 on Mar 27, 2009 5:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There is nothing anyone can say to that

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 27, 2009 6:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

This really should

Just be a regular page post, it gets rec’d every to the top every time and everyone loves reading it. Lets make it happen!

I hope I can get a bunch of championships, like 15. " - Greg Oden

by mxpx5678 on Mar 27, 2009 7:55 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

I actually have an easier time finding stuff on the sidebar. But in terms of quality and importance, it MERITS being on the front page.

Good job, Scot!

Pontiff of the Pryz for Prez Posse...

by timbo on Mar 27, 2009 8:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

rec'd

by diskord on Mar 27, 2009 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

but I’m sometimes on the verge of not getting it done, and it really isn’t a very good tool this late in the season. The individual schedule breakdowns like Dave did and like Blazer91 does are more useful when we’re down to just a few games.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 27, 2009 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Should start calling you Memoman.

But then that might tarnish your hopes to be ruler of the world.

Still, once there, you should have no problem keeping things running smoothly with such a high quality memo writing ability. (Seriously – the memos are all spot on.)

hakkaa päälle !

by timg56 on Mar 27, 2009 8:07 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Denver

The only realistic chance for the Blazers to catch Denver is if Denver loses tonight and to Utah. I know, I know, Utah is terrible on the road. Terrible. But, it is still the most likely “upset” left on Denver’s schedule. If Denver only those two and at LAL and the Blazers only loses two more games (San Antonio, Houston, LAL), the final game in Portland would be for the division. If Denver wins tonight, it’s over but for the shouting.

by PoliSam on Mar 27, 2009 8:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Incorrect, our only hope is that we somehow can win 8 of our last 10... very difficult with at Houston, at SA, Lakers, Utah, Denver..

and even at OKC which could be tough..

Denver doesnt even have to beat Utah at home, or beat Dallas tonight… they only need to get to 52 pretty much to win the division, since us getting to 53 is gonna require an 8-2 run (not likely)

They have 46 right now.. and games left

vs GS
vs NYK
vs LAC
vs Sacramento
vs OKC

Are they really gonna lose any of those 5 home games??

Which means all they have to do to get to 52 wins is beat Utah at home or win at Minnesota

Hell they could win both of those games..

So as I said, Blazers are gonna have to sweep the remaining home schedule.. and win at OKC and at Memphis if they want to win this division (IMO)

by Rudy4three on Mar 27, 2009 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

What you meant to say was CORRECT

We do need Denver to lose tonight and against Utah, so PoliSam is right that this is our most legitimate chance of catching them.

We do still need to go 8-2, which will be tough to do, so you are right, but PoliSam said the same thing, so you didn’t disagree with him.

If Denver loses the three games PoliSam said, and we lose only the two toughest road games, then the last game sets up for the division.

So, you said he was wrong, then agreed with him.

by blazer91 on Mar 27, 2009 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Another way to look at it

Yes Portland does have to win 8 of 10, but if Denver wins tonight, even THAT’S not enough, so Denver’s win tonight is crucial (see also my “projections” post on this subject)

by blazer91 on Mar 27, 2009 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Denver could lose

1. Home to GS (back to back after a tough game at Dallas).
2. At Minnesota (back to back, and they’ve been sloppy on the road recently).
3. Home vs. OKC (against a young, talented, inconsistent team, who knows? They’ve struggled against OKC this year, 3-0 but two were buzzer-beaters).
4. Home vs. NY (NY can be dangerous if they catch fire).

Do I expect them to lose those? Not really, but I won’t be overly surprised if one of them gets away.

But in all probability, if Denver wins tonight, they own the NW one last time before our 15 year dynasty. But we have to face up to the fact that Denver probably owns the NW this year even if they lose tonight. Yeah, we’ll have a chance, but they will still be favorites. When they swept their Florida trip just before the all-star break, that was huge for them. They gave it up with some bad losses later, but that sweep gave them some cushion to absorb some bad losses.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 27, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Back to back games is something I have been too busy to get into my post,

but I did add some possible variations (unexpected losses) to my update in bold. Let me know what you think of them, or if you think others I should add, especially to Denver

by blazer91 on Mar 27, 2009 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like what you've done

I mentioned the Phoenix at New Orleans game in a comment on your thread.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 27, 2009 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just saying

NY can be dangerous if they catch fire

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 28, 2009 1:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice explanation

by PoliSam on Mar 27, 2009 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Denver wins tonight, it’s over but for the shouting.

by PoliSam on Mar 27, 2009 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Memo to Jscot: make it better and faster!!!

j/k lub you.

I only care about the magnificent 7th wonder of the world

by broyposse on Mar 27, 2009 8:57 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

NO WIN WIN tonight with DAL/DEN

It is not a win win for us tonight. Dallas is not our concern, as they are not going to knock us out of the playoffs, and probably not pass us for homecourt, either. If we are a 6 or 7 seed, who cares?

Denver, on the other hand, runs away and hides if they win tonight (see my daily updated projections post)

So, for tonight only: GO DALLAS!!! BEAT DENVER!!!!

by blazer91 on Mar 27, 2009 9:03 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Here's why I say win/win

A Denver loss keeps our slim hopes alive for the NW, but they are still slim unless they drop one they should win.

A Dallas loss greatly increases our chances of being in the top six — Utah will almost certainly finish behind us, and Dallas is a good bet to be behind us, too.

Six is better than 7 or 8, because I think we can beat Houston or Denver, even without home court, if we get some breaks. But Manu is back now, and I think that makes San Antonio an extremely tough matchup — perhaps even harder than L.A., if they are entirely healthy. And they are resting Duncan a lot to keep him healthy. I very much want to finish at least top six and avoid the Spurs. I want to see some Dallas and Utah losses — it takes the pressure off.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 27, 2009 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

And you're probably right on win-win

I just hate win wins, because then I don’t care to watch, and I refuse to acknolwedge anything other than a goal of the division, until that becomes an entirely Quixotic quest.

by blazer91 on Mar 27, 2009 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, well

It’s theoretically possible we could win the division and finish behind Dallas.

I’m strongly hoping for a Dallas win, but there’s benefit to us if it goes the other way.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 27, 2009 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're right, of course

Still rooting HARD for a Denver loss, though!

Kermit on the inbounds play, inbounds....BATES at the horn, HE SCORES!! HE SCORES!!!! And they are all over Billy Ray Bates! My, oh my!!!

by blazer91 on Mar 27, 2009 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am going to be watching the NY/NO Game very closely

To see how Nate Robinson defends Paul, pressures him & plays in comparison to him.

Positive Vibes For Oden

by Air Norv on Mar 27, 2009 10:08 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Compare heights too

No way is actually Paul 6’0.

"I don’t have the first clue who he is talking about, because all I worry about is Jerome." – Jerome James, on comments by coach Nate McMillan about Seattle SuperSonics players being selfish.

by Devenex on Mar 27, 2009 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs