Projections after 3/24

by jscot on Mar 25, 2009 3:56 AM PDT Comment 5 comments

Projection explanation in my Sched Ahead Threads.

Projections

1	L.A.	65.9
2	S.A.	53.7
3	Denver	52.4
4	Houston	52.3
5	N.O.	51.5
6	Portland	51.1
7	Utah	48.8
8	Dallas	48.4
9	Phoenix	44.0

As expected, Utah beats Houston. Tonight is a big game for them, even bigger for Phoenix. Expect playoff intensity from both teams.

The Spurs almost dropped a home game to G.S. Too bad, that really would have thrown the two seed wide open. At Atlanta tonight on a back to back -- tough game.

Denver @ N.O. A Denver loss puts us right back in the division hunt, and significantly ratchets up the pressure on them to win in Dallas on Friday. A N.O. loss probably gives us an edge over them for the run-in -- it could mean the difference between a four and five seed.

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Slow day... I suppose Dave's post took all the comments.

By my reckoning, today’s games are big. If Denver loses to New Orleans and Utah loses to Phoenix, the battle for the Northwest Division will become very real.

The Blazers’ games at Houston and San Antonio games look more winnable to me now than they did just a few days ago. San Antonio is struggling. I think the Blazers match-up relatively well against the Rockets. Indeed, of the 8 teams projected to make the playoffs, I think they would be my favorite for the Blazers to play.

On the other hand, I am probably more worried about the Sun’s visit to the Rose Garden than I was.

by PoliSam on Mar 25, 2009 2:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Manu is supposed to be back

by the time we get to San Antonio. I’m not optimistic.

I think the Houston game is winnable. We haven’t played them with Oden in the lineup, could be interesting.

I don’t fear Phoenix.

Utah isn’t in the NW battle unless they can win some of these really tough road games. A win in Phoenix would give them hope, but it is only one — they need at least two, and probably three, to win the division. The two they really need are in Portland and in Denver. If they get both of those, they probably win it. Otherwise, they might need at least three tough road wins. Seven of their last 12 are road games at Western contenders.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 25, 2009 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jazz

They haven’t gotten to play a lot of difficult road games since they got a full roster. I’ll be interested to see what happens tonight, just to get a sense for whether or not they will be tougher on the road than their record indicates.

by PoliSam on Mar 25, 2009 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I had a thought today.

It actually hurt my brain, but it was a thought nonetheless.

What if .500 is not the dividing line between good team/bad team? What if we said that .560 was the dividing line? Or .485? Do teams that we know to be really good look even better? Do mediocre teams suddenly fall to one side of the fence?

I dunno.

The cowards never started
The weak died along the way
Only the strong survived
They were the Trailblazers

by lukeyhere on Mar 25, 2009 3:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs