The Remaining Games in the West

by Dave on Mar 25, 2009 1:30 AM PDT Comment 56 comments

It's time to take a look at the remaining schedule for the 2^nd-9^th place teams in the West. Perhaps we can help sort out the standings chaos and take a look at which teams have the inside track to good seed and which are just hoping to hold on. We'll look at Portland's path first and then take the other teams in order of current standings, figuring out how likely it is that the Blazers might overtaken them or vice-versa.

Portland Trail Blazers 44-27

Phoenix
Memphis
Utah
@OKC
@Houston
@Memphis
@San Antonio
L*kers
@Clippers
OKC
Denver

Games Remaining: 11

Home vs Away: 6-5

Below .500 vs. Above .500: 5-6

Back-to-Back: 2

The Blazers just about split the middle of prospective playoff teams. They're nearly even in Home vs. Away and Below .500 or Above. They will be exactly even after Thursday. With only 2 back-to-backs and only one pair of consecutive games versus Above .500 teams they're better off than many in this race. The Blazers play 5 games in which they should be solidly favored, 3 at which they'll be considered at a disadvantage, and 3 toss-ups: Phoenix, Utah, and Denver. That puts the likely record between 49-52 wins, give or take one either way.

San Antonio Spurs 46-24

@Atlanta
Clippers
@New Orleans
OKC
@Indiana
@Cleveland
@OKC
Portland
Utah
@Sacramento
@Golden State
New Orleans

Games Remaining: 12

Home vs Away: 5-7

Below .500 vs. Above .500: 6-6

Back-to-Back: 3

[Dave's Disclaimer:] I literally was falling asleep ON my keyboard as I did this last night and messed up the SA schedule by missing three games and their record against Portland. I have fixed it. I did not do the strikethrough thing as it would have left a big mess on the page given how much had to be changed. But I am owning the mistake publicly here so nobody will have a complaint.

In order to catch the Spurs the Blazers would have to be on the upper end of their projected wins and hope for a San Antonio meltdown. With only four road games, two of those being against relatively weak teams, that's not likely. The key would be winning in San Antonio, but that's not common.

Houston Rockets 47-26

Clippers
@Phoenix
@L*kers
Portland
Orlando
@Sacramento
@Golden State
New Orleans
@Dallas

Games Remaining: 9

Home vs Away: 4-5

Below .500 vs. Above .500: 3-6

Back-to-Back: 1

Like the Spurs, the Rockets have fewer losses and fewer games remaining than the Blazers. The loss column advantage is only 1, however. More importantly the teams have split 2 games so far this season and only 1 remains. The winner of that game will own the tiebreaker between the teams. Unfortunately for Portland that game is in Houston, a notoriously difficult place for the Blazers to pick up a win. The Rockets do have a tough schedule remaining. They play 3 road games against Western teams with winning records and 3 more home games against tough teams. But they have only 1 back-to-back situation to face. It wouldn't be impossible for the Blazers to catch the Rockets but it would take some big wins from Portland.

Denver Nuggets 45-26

@New Orleans
@Dallas
Golden State
New York
Utah
Clippers
@Minnesota
OKC
@L*kers
Sacramento
@Portland

Games Remaining: 11

Home vs Away: 6-5

Below .500 vs. Above .500: 6-5

Back-toBack: 3

This is where things get interesting for Portland, as winning the division over Denver and Utah would ensure a decent seed. Denver has a slim, one-game edge in the loss column over Portland and 11 chances to lose that extra game. Furthermore the last game of the season for these two teams will be played in Portland. Denver will almost certainly own the tiebreaker regardless of the outcome of that game, meaning Portland has to surpass them to win. The Nuggets have more home games than road games and are facing more sub-.500 teams than playoff contenders. They face only one game that could be reasonably marked as a de facto loss: the contest in L.A. The games in Portland, New Orleans, and Dallas will be challenging. Denver gets 5 home games in which they should be solidly favored. The Blazers, by comparison, have 6 home games period, 4 of them potentially difficult. Portland will be hard put to leapfrog the Nuggets and stay in front.

New Orleans Hornets 44-25

Denver
@Knicks
San Antonio
@Sacramento
@Clippers
@Golden State
Utah
@Miami
Phoenix
@Dallas
Dallas
@Houston
@San Antonio

Games Remaining: 13

Home vs Away: 5-8

Below .500 vs. Above .500: 4-9

Back-toBack: 3

Compared to the rest of the conference's playoff contenders New Orleans faces an uphill battle. They have more games remaining than anybody, more games on the road than anybody, and more games against plus-.500 teams than anybody. While they face only one truly spirit-crushing game (the season finale in San Antonio) the sheer repetition of good teams coming against them is likely to show, especially in the season's last couple of weeks. Even with a lead of 2 in the loss column this team could be vulnerable.

Utah Jazz 43-26

Houston
@Phoenix
Phoenix (39-31)
New York
@Portland
@Denver
Minnesota
@New Orleans
@Dallas
@San Antonio
Golden State
Clippers
@L*kers

Games Remaining: 13

Home vs Away: 6-7

Below .500 vs. Above .500: 4-9

Back-to-Back: 5

Much like the Hornets, the Jazz have a ton of games left. They play an enormous number of good teams as well. Only 3 games out of 13 could be considered sure wins. Everything else is a toss-up or probably loss. Plus they've got an insane 5 sets of back-to-backs remaining. The Jazz will own the tiebreaker against the Blazers but it will be difficult to keep that far above water. Portland has a good shot of passing them.

Dallas Mavericks 42-28

Golden State
Denver
@Cleveland
@Minnesota
Miami
@Memphis
Phoenix
Utah
New Orleans
@New Orleans
Minnesota
Houston

Games Remaining: 12

Home vs Away: 8-4

Below .500 vs. Above .500: 4-8

Back-toBack: 2

The Mavericks have the advantage of a home-weighted schedule the rest of the way. The problem is, most of those home games are tough. Portland's lead is only 1 game in the loss column but with this many opportunities for Dallas to lose to good teams Portland could well keep ahead. The Mavericks do own the tiebreaker.

Phoenix Suns 39-31

Utah
@Portland
@Utah
@Sacramento
Houston
Sacramento
@Dallas
@New Orleans
@Memphis
@Minnesota
Memphis
Golden State

Games Remaining: 12

Home vs Away: 5-7

Below .500 vs. Above .500: 6-6

Back-toBack: 3

The Suns are 4 games behind the Blazers in the loss column and have to play some quality teams on the road. That's a tall order no matter which way you slice it, new offense and 5-game winning streak or no. It's easy to envision Phoenix winning 8 of its last 12 but that still only puts them at 47 wins, which is below the lower end of Portland's range. The tiebreaker is still up for grabs in this contest though. If Phoenix wins the final matchup between the two teams they possess it outright. If Portland wins then it comes down to record against conference opponents. The race there is close.

It doesn't look like the top dogs in the conference are going to be giving up their positions, but some of the middle-runners could fall. The Blazers just have to hope they're not among them. The chances of Dallas and Phoenix both catching Portland seem quite small unless the Blazers decide to aid and abet by playing substandard ball. On the other hand Portland is going to need more help than the relatively tight records indicate if it wants to move up significantly in the standings or even win the division. Utah is probably vulnerable but Denver's schedule just isn't that tough. If the Blazers owned more tiebreakers the outlook would be more cheery but those road losses against conference opponents kill you. The most likely outcome, even with the jockeying, is the Blazers making the playoffs but not with a high seed.

--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)

1 recs | Comment 56 comments

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Comments

Yup, I expect us to sneak in around 5 or 6 seed.

I’d wager we’ll beat out NO, Dallas, and Utah.

Houston, Denver, San Antonio, and LA got us beat.

Tweet me!

by prezofdeath on Mar 25, 2009 1:47 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

First tiebreaker is head to head, isn't it?

If so, if we beat San Antonio there, we’ll own the tiebreaker on them.

And it is irrelevant if we don’t beat them there, because we have no chance to catch them otherwise.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 25, 2009 3:03 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Indeed

We’d have to win in SA to catpture the tie-breaker and they’d have to lose unconscionably for us to have any chance otherwise.

—Dave

by Dave on Mar 25, 2009 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stranger things have happened

Blazers win!

by The X-man on Mar 25, 2009 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks Dave.

I’ve been trying to do this in my head for a while, but kept getting stuck in quicksand.
It’s a swampy jungle mess up there.
Glad to see your mind is clearer.

Rudyculize: The act of Rudy making others look slow, dim and generally oafish.
http://www.myspace.com/y5k

by Y5k on Mar 25, 2009 3:12 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

if you keep getting stuck in the quicksand

never fear…Bill has the answer.

Tweet me!

by prezofdeath on Mar 25, 2009 3:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's not that Bill W from Alcoholis Anonymous is it?

Rudyculize: The act of Rudy making others look slow, dim and generally oafish.
http://www.myspace.com/y5k

by Y5k on Mar 25, 2009 3:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

was that a slur?

I AM A PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS SUPPORTER.

by bow4meow on Mar 25, 2009 7:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I do believe so

Blazers win!

by The X-man on Mar 25, 2009 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd love the Blazers to get a higher seed

I just care about the Blazers getting in the Playoffs and I’d like the Blazers to get there on their own.

by tominhawaii on Mar 25, 2009 3:17 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

yup. I'd like to see some real battle spirit through the end of the regular season ...

… then the question is, who do you want to play in the Playoffs?
I mean, San Antonio and Los Can’tStandYouLas have tons of playoff experience … infact, they all do compared to Portland. Atlanta did it in the playoffs last year for a while using youth and enthusiasm and all that, but this is the West.

Rudyculize: The act of Rudy making others look slow, dim and generally oafish.
http://www.myspace.com/y5k

by Y5k on Mar 25, 2009 3:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't care who they meet

Since they’ll have to go through three teams to play the Magic in the Finals. In the words of GW, “Bring ’em on.”

by tominhawaii on Mar 25, 2009 4:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

A win in our next game

basically puts us there, and we’ll have done it on our own.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 25, 2009 3:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think with the loss against the 76s

much of the Blazers’ chance of winning the division is gone. Denver’s easy schedule and better record will prevail. I think they’ll end up in 4th with the Spurs and Rockets battling above them for 2nd place.

Utah is dangerous. Out of all the bad (relatively speaking) road teams in the league, Utah is clearly the team you would be least surprised to see win big road games. I’m just glad that the schedule is doing them no favors at this point in the season. I could see them making a run, but if I had to say, I think they end up with the 6th seed.

It looks like the Hornets will falter. Their hard schedule, injuries and no bench will put them in the 7th seed. Plus, and I don’t think Dave explicitly mentioned this, they face all their sub .500 opponents on the road. Ouch. They don’t have a single easy game left.

Dallas could make a run, but they seem stuck in the 8th position. I see the Suns scrapping hard in their remaining game against Dallas and dealing them a big loss that’ll keep them behind Portland and in the 8th seed.

I’m not sure what to make of the Suns other than they’ve got Dallas shaking in their high tops. They aren’t going down without a fight, which is REALLY good for Portland. They play Utah twice, New Orleans twice, as well as, Denver and Houston. I’m going to be rooting for the Suns in every non Blazer game they play against West contenders. I don’t think the Suns will win enough to snag 8th however.

As for the Blazers, I like their chances of getting the 5th seed which would present a decent match up against the Nuggets in round one (certainly better than either the Spurs or Rockets). Portland will get plenty of rest (2-3 days off between each game) during this home stretch and going into the road trip in April. That means playing for wins and not worrying about resting the starters. I think 50 wins ties us with Utah at the end of the season with 51 being the number needed to take the 5th seed. That would mean winning the rest of the home games in this stand plus both against OKC, and against Memphis and the Clippers, all of which is totally doable.

"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"

by Magnum on Mar 25, 2009 3:20 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Team by team

San Antonio — struggling right now, almost lost to G.S. Duncan still isn’t right, Manu will be back soon, but how good? If we can win our home games and steal a win there, we could beat them. Highly unlikely. We finish behind the Spurs.

Houston — if we win all our home games and all our road games against losing teams, we may beat them out even if we lose in Houston. If we steal a win there, we should beat them out even if we drop one of those others. Toss-up.

Denver — our tough games are at home, for the most part. Theirs are on the road. I could easily see both teams coming into that last game with 52 wins. For them, that is where I think they will be. For us, I think we’ll more likely be at 51. That could make it a dead game, since they will own the tiebreaker. Edge to Denver.

New Orleans — depends on Chandler’s health, perhaps. If he is healthy and plays well, they would be favored in each of their next 7. If they win their next 7, it rather changes the picture…. I don’t think they do that, and their last 6 are not nice — they could easily finish 2-4, or even worse. This is also a toss-up as to whether we beat these guys out.

Utah — probably toast, as far as catching us. A win tonight in Phoenix would give them hope. Hopefully they go into about four overtimes before losing, leaving Phoenix exhausted. We finish ahead of the Jazz.

Dallas — Lots of home games. Lots of home games against good teams. The only good teams that they do well against this year are in the Pacific Northwest. We finish ahead of Dallas.

Phoenix — hopefully they play spoiler and beat all the others a lot. Maybe they can even pass one or two teams and get into the playoffs. They won’t pass us.

We finish between 3 and 6 (unless S.A. drops several games they should win, or Utah steals at least 2 they should lose). Probably we finish behind Denver. If so, it comes down to N.O. and Houston, and I consider both a toss-up as far as whether we beat them out. In all probability, we’re in the 4-6 slot, and we could end up anywhere in that range — even if we win everything but our two Texas games, we could possibly end up as low as 6th.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 25, 2009 3:34 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Once upon a time in the west

Yes it’s no use saying that you don’t know nothing
It’s still gonna get you if you don’t [say] something
Sitting on a fence that’s a dangerous course
Oh, you could even catch a bullet from [an unseen] force
Even the hero gets a bullet in the chest
Oh yeah, once upon a time in the west

- Paraphrased from Dire Straits

Good luck to all with late season prognostications!

"The match in Los Angeles is a good opportunity to begin to demonstrate that we want to make war." Rudy Fernández (translated)

by G_dubs on Mar 25, 2009 4:59 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I predicted 49 wins at the BOTS, but I'll say 53 now.

"The match in Los Angeles is a good opportunity to begin to demonstrate that we want to make war." Rudy Fernández (translated)

by G_dubs on Mar 25, 2009 5:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

One thing I noticed

first off, great article….

But i have noticed that you have this for the Spurs:

San Antonio Spurs 46 – 24

Games Remaining: 9

Home vs Away: 5-4

Below .500 vs. Above .500: 4-5

Back-to-Back: 3

it looks to me like you are 3 games short with that one…. (46 + 24 = 70, plus 9 games remaining = 79 Games)

by cLaRkY on Mar 25, 2009 6:44 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

the missing games are....

@ Indiana
@ Cleveland
@ OKC

sorry bout the double post….

by cLaRkY on Mar 25, 2009 6:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Makes it look a lot worse for them

Because they could easily drop two of those.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 25, 2009 7:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

One of those back to backs are with Portland!

Hopefully, they’ll be very tired!!!

by jenstcy on Mar 25, 2009 8:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tired

like Dave was when he posted?

We’ll be on a back to back for that game also. Still, that gives us a chance, especially if they are still fighting injuries and short-handed.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 25, 2009 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

Yeah…I blew that one. I ’ll fix it. I was working on, like, 3 hours of sleep after dozens of hours of work.

—Dave

by Dave on Mar 25, 2009 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I work on my sleep while posting, too

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 25, 2009 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'm just hoping

my rockets finally get out of the 1.st .rd this year geez,as for pdx they’re not ready for prime time right now.definately next season.with a good playoff year of experience under their belts.

by fatty on Mar 25, 2009 6:46 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Without Tracy McGrady, the Houston Rockets are in good shape to finally bust through the first round.

It’s similar to how the Oklahoma City Thunder are better without Kevin Durant, who couldn’t guard a chair.

by AK1984 on Mar 25, 2009 7:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

well maybe a stationary chair

but not one with wheels

"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"

by Magnum on Mar 25, 2009 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Those wheelie chairs are a definite challenge.

by AK1984 on Mar 25, 2009 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anyone know

whats going on with the jersey contest?

by captain flitzy on Mar 25, 2009 7:20 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

its a very low seed for the PTB

now that everytime knows to expose our laughable matadorian defense…. in fact I think the use of capes to stop guys from getting to the basket might be an improvement.

I AM A PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS SUPPORTER.

by bow4meow on Mar 25, 2009 7:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Good idea

If the capes help we should try suit of lights road uniforms

by southern oregon on Mar 25, 2009 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

As long as we make the playoffs im a happy man

but I would like to see us give someone a run for the money or make the second round.

It was "mascot night" at the Rose Garden, which apparently translates to a dozen inflatable versions of various NBA mascots being chased around the arena by Portland's "Blaze", which is some breed of rapist dog. -PostingandToasting

by GreatOden'sRaven on Mar 25, 2009 8:15 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

This is how I hope the rest of the Blazer's season ends up at...

vs Suns Win-it’s a b2b for them, and they’re older.
vs Griz Win-below .500
vs Jazz Win – b2b for them and they’re not great on the road
@ OKC Win- below .500
@ Rockets Lose- you can’t win them all, right??
@ Griz Win- below .500
@ Spurs Win- b2b for them and for us too but they seem to be on the downward slide (I can dream, right?)
vs. Lakers Win- b2b for them, and given their Rose Garden record, it looks promising.
@ Clippers Win- below .500
Denver Win- they are at home and it’s the last game of the season
Just play good basketball and this could happen. Am I being overly optimistic?? I say if they manage to win 53 this year, they’ll definitely win NW division. Go Blazers!!!

by jenstcy on Mar 25, 2009 8:37 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

you're missing a game

home vs. OKC is after the Clips and before the Nuggets.

draft dejuan blair

by Cablinasian on Mar 25, 2009 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whoopsie

Thanks. Well, they’ll win that game too!! :-)

by jenstcy on Mar 25, 2009 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

10-1?

ignacio

by ignacio on Mar 25, 2009 8:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

5 seed works

Give us Denver in round 1. Without back to backs after travel I think we can grab a win despite their ridiculous elevation advantage. Plus, playing there multiple times in a short time period will help our guys get used to it. Even if we get crushed by Lakes in 2nd round, we’ll show the NBA who to fear from the Pacific Division next year!

by Zaig on Mar 25, 2009 9:37 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Northwest Division

We’re not in the Pacific Division anymore Toto

Blazers win!

by The X-man on Mar 25, 2009 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Touche

Whats weird is I typed Northwest, then deleted it and put Pacific in…

by Zaig on Mar 25, 2009 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nobody's perfect

Blazers win!

by The X-man on Mar 25, 2009 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm close enough not to make silly mistakes like that though!!!

by Zaig on Mar 25, 2009 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You thought you were

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 25, 2009 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or

My awesomeness is so fast that I am already looking ahead to the future when the NBA kick out 6 teams, moves back to 4 divisions and renames one the Pacific Division!

by Zaig on Mar 25, 2009 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks to all

who point out the San Antonio errors. You know what’s funny? I sat there for 15 sleep-fogged minutes last night trying and trying to make the loss-column, relative-record math work between the Blazers and Spurs and it just wasn’t working. I couldn’t understand why I kept coming up with different numbers. I added and subtracted, like, 15 times. Then I decided, “You’re just tired…finish and go to bed!” (SA was the last team I did.) I was correct about that last part. Who knew that I missed three games from their schedule entirely? That would explain the math…

—Dave

by Dave on Mar 25, 2009 9:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Hey Dave!

Im currently tied for 3rd place in Brian Wheeler’s NCAA bracket tournament on Yahoo. My name is BlazersEdge of Sanity. What is my trinket if I take that thing down while giving the plug to BE?

Tickets?

Hi fans it Brandon Roy.
And ME.....LaMarcus Aldridge

by Derftron on Mar 25, 2009 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

im really worried about us not making the playoffs

someone please reassure me and give me a hug

Oden...Aldridge...Roy.....THE REAL BIG THREE

by CroRupt on Mar 25, 2009 10:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Don't worry...

For the Blazers not to make the playoffs, they would have to lose at least 5 of their last 11 games, which would be a 51-31 record and the Suns would have to win all 12 off their games remaining which would also be a 51-31 record. I don’t think the Blazers are worrying too much about not making the playoffs so neither should you! :-) At this point it’s guaranteed. The Blazers should be more worried about not making it into the top 4. Happy thoughts!

by jenstcy on Mar 25, 2009 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Blazers going 6-5 is entirely possible if not probable.

But Phoenix winnning out is near impossible. Blazers are in.

by Blazin' on Mar 25, 2009 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

WOW!

Even Blazin’ believes now!!!! :)

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 25, 2009 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reassurance

Check Phoenix’ schedule. Can you really see them going better than 10-2 the rest of the way? 10-2 would give them 48 wins. That would be an incredible finish for them, with the games left on their schedule. Incredible. And it would get them 48.

Check our schedule. Remember, we’ve never lost more than 3 in a row this year, and only did that once. Can you really see us going less than 5-6 the rest of the way? Can you see us doing worse than 6-5, really? I can’t. 6-5 gets us 50 wins.

About the best I could imagine Phoenix doing is 48, and about the worst I can imagine us doing is 50, which leaves us 2 games ahead.

You know the players think they are in when you hear them talking about playoff positioning and about division rivals like Denver. If they were worried, all you would ever hear is “we have to get into the playoffs”. But some of those other statements are coming out these days.

You probably want a hug from someone more attractive than me.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 25, 2009 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs