What Happens if all the Western contenders "Take Care of Business?"

by blazer91 on Mar 26, 2009 10:27 AM PDT

BY REQUEST, I HAVE MOVED TODAY'S UPDATE TO A NEW THREAD, WITH TODAY'S DATE AND WILL TRY TO DO THAT DAILY. NOTHING NEW HERE...GO TO THE NEW POST

A couple "upsets" tonight leave Portland projected in the 4/5 matchup, again as the road team, but this time not as a division winner.

FIRST UPDATED: ANALYSIS OF WHERE WE SIT AFTER THE PHILLY LOSS, HOW DEVIATIONS FROM THE NORM AFFECT PORTLAND, AND, AT THE BOTTOM OF THE POST, A SEMI-DETAILED LOOK AT POSSIBLE "UPSETS" THAT COULD HELP, A.K.A. "WHO TO ROOT FOR", WHICH IS REALLY WHAT BLAZER FANS WANT TO KNOW, RIGHT?

I have heard a lot of people say (and I agree) that if the Blazers can just "take care of business," they should end up with a top four seed (even after the loss to Philly last night, when they fell short of taking care of business). For purposes of this post, I define "taking care of business" as winning all of one's remaining home games, and beating all of the non-winning teams one plays on the road. Based on that prediction for the Blazers, the Blazers would finish the regular season at 53-29, even with last night's loss to Philly. I have suggested that I believe that should be enough to win the division.

Now for the subject of this fanpost: What if EVERYONE in the Western playoff chase "takes care of business," as defined above. Namely, what happens if everyone wins all their home games, and wins their road games against non-winning clubs? Where does the race shake out?

Here are the results:

FINAL STANDINGS (2-9):
2. SAN ANTONIO	56-26
3. HOUSTON (tiebreaker over both)	53-29
4. DENVER (tiebreaker over POR)	53-29
5. PORTLAND	53-29
6. NEW ORLEANS (tiebreaker over DAL)	52-30
7. DALLAS	52-30
8. UTAH	49-33
OUT: PHOENIX	47-35

So, Portland is now on pace to finish tied with Denver, losing out on the division by virtue of a tiebreaker if everything NOW plays out like it "should," with teams winning at home and beating the teams they "should" on the road, so unless Houston or Denver drops a game somewhere, it means that Portland is a 5 seed with more road games than home games in its first round series.

HOUSTON (47-26)

Sat, Mar 28 LA Clippers W
Wed, Apr 1 at Phoenix L
Fri, Apr 3 at LA Lakers L
Sun, Apr 5 Portland W
Tue, Apr 7 Orlando W
Thu, Apr 9 at Sacramento W
Fri, Apr 10 at Golden State W
Mon, Apr 13 New Orleans W
Wed, Apr 15 at Dallas L

(53-29) (wins tiebreakers with both DEN and POR, earning the 3 seed)

SAN ANTONIO (47-24)

Fri, Mar 27 LA Clippers W
Sun, Mar 29 at New Orleans L
Tue, Mar 31 Oklahoma City W
Fri, Apr 3 at Indiana W
Sun, Apr 5 at Cleveland L
Tue, Apr 7 at Oklahoma City W
Wed, Apr 8 Portland W
Fri, Apr 10 Utah W
Sun, Apr 12 at Sacramento W
Mon, Apr 13 at Golden State W
Wed, Apr 15 New Orleans W

(56-26) (2 seed)

DENVER (47-26)

Fri, Mar 27 at Dallas L
Sat, Mar 28 Golden State W
Tue, Mar 31 NY Knicks W
Thu, Apr 2 Utah W
Sat, Apr 4 LA Clippers W
Sun, Apr 5 at Minnesota W
Wed, Apr 8 Oklahoma City W
Thu, Apr 9 at LA Lakers L
Mon, Apr 13 Sacramento W
Wed, Apr 15 at Portland L

(53-29) (loses tiebreaker vs. HOU based on head-to-head games, wins the tiebreaker over Portland and wins the division, taking the 4 seed)

NEW ORLEANS (44-26)

Fri, Mar 27 at NY Knicks W
Sun, Mar 29 San Antonio W
Tue, Mar 31 at Sacramento W
Wed, Apr 1 at LA Clippers W
Fri, Apr 3 at Golden State W
Sun, Apr 5 Utah W
Tue, Apr 7 at Miami L
Wed, Apr 8 Phoenix W
Fri, Apr 10 at Dallas L
Sun, Apr 12 Dallas W
Mon, Apr 13 at Houston L
Wed, Apr 15 at San Antonio L

(52-30) (wins tiebreaker with DAL, earning a 6 seed)

PORTLAND (44-27)

Thu, Mar 26 Phoenix W
Sat, Mar 28 Memphis W
Tue, Mar 31 Utah W
Fri, Apr 3 at Oklahoma City W
Sun, Apr 5 at Houston L
Tue, Apr 7 at Memphis W
Wed, Apr 8 at San Antonio L
Fri, Apr 10 LA Lakers W
Sat, Apr 11 at LA Clippers W
Mon, Apr 13 Oklahoma City W
Wed, Apr 15 Denver W

(53-29) (loses tiebreaker to DEN, losing the division title, and also to Houston, meaning they notch a 5 seed)

UTAH (44-27)

Sat, Mar 28 Phoenix W
Mon, Mar 30 NY Knicks W
Tue, Mar 31 at Portland L
Thu, Apr 2 at Denver L
Fri, Apr 3 Minnesota W
Sun, Apr 5 at New Orleans L
Wed, Apr 8 at Dallas L
Fri, Apr 10 at San Antonio L
Sat, Apr 11 Golden State W
Mon, Apr 13 LA Clippers W
Tue, Apr 14 at LA Lakers L

(49-33) (eight seed)

DALLAS (43-28)

Fri, Mar 27 Denver W
Sun, Mar 29 at Cleveland L
Tue, Mar 31 at Minnesota W
Wed, Apr 1 Miami W
Fri, Apr 3 at Memphis W
Sun, Apr 5 Phoenix W
Wed, Apr 8 Utah W
Fri, Apr 10 New Orleans W
Sun, Apr 12 at New Orleans L
Mon, Apr 13 Minnesota W
Wed, Apr 15 Houston W

(52-30) (loses tiebreaker to NO, earning a 7 seed)

PHOENIX (40-31)

Thu, Mar 26 at Portland L
Sat, Mar 28 at Utah L
Sun, Mar 29 at Sacramento W
Wed, Apr 1 Houston W
Fri, Apr 3 Sacramento W
Sun, Apr 5 at Dallas L
Wed, Apr 8 at New Orleans L
Fri, Apr 10 at Memphis W
Sat, Apr 11 at Minnesota W
Mon, Apr 13 Memphis W
Wed, Apr 15 Golden State W

(47-25) (OUT OF THE PLAYOFFS)

CHEER FOR UTAH ON THE ROAD!!!

The team best positioned to help the Blazers by winning a game they shouldn't is Utah. Utah has a brutal schedule that will make it tough to catch Portland for the division, so unless they go on a hot streak, Blazer fans become Jazz fans when the teams aren't playing each other. If Utah can somehow win in Denver, that gets Portland back into the lead in the division, and a TRUE four seed, by virtue of its better record than NO. If Utah can also pull out a win against NO, then Portland pads its edge against NO, while still having an edge over Utah for the division.

CHEER FOR PHOENIX ON THE ROAD, TOO!!!

The other team that could potentially help us is Phoenix, especially if they can pull a road win in NO. That would pad our edge for homecourt if we can somehow beat out Denver, and/or would allow us to stay ahead of NO even after dropping another "should win" game if either Phoenix or the Jazz can find a way to beat NO in NO.

MAYBE CHEER FOR NEW ORLEANS, IF THEY LOSE TO UTAH OR PHOENIX?

Under the scenario where NO loses to either Utah or Phoenix at home, if Portland holds serve on the remainder of its games, we then become NO fans for their game against Houston. Because in THAT scenario, New Orleans could knock Houston a game behind the Blazers, moving Portland into the 3 or 4 slot (depending on whether we beat out Denver), while Houston would get the 4 or the 5 (again, depending on Denver).

BEAT HOUSTON!!!

Of Course, God helps those who help themselves, so the best thing Portland could do for itself would be to steal the game in Houston, and hold serve on the other "should wins," making all the tiebreaker talk moot, as Portland would gain a game on Houston in the standings, and would earn the tiebreaker with Houston based on the head-to head, while moving a game up on Denver also, earning the 3 seed and winning the division if all else goes to plan. But, failing that, there is one more thing Blazer fans can root for:

ROOT FOR ORLANDO!!!

Orlando could help us if they find a way to win in Houston, which would also knock Houston behind Portland, if all else goes to plan, again giving Portland the 3 or 4 seed, depending on where Denver ends up. (We now really need Denver to cough up a game somewhere)

Bottom line: What we as Blazers fans should be rooting for (and that's really the question here, right?) in any game between playoff contenders in the West is that the home team holds serve, except when Utah plays Denver in Denver, and when Phoenix or Utah play on the road against New Orleans, when we want the Road team to win, and now that NO has dropped behind Portland, we also root for NO to beat Houston on the road.

All clear now?

Tweet Comment 41 comments | 21 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Rec

thanks for the enemy breakdowns.

Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game

by iDea on Mar 23, 2009 5:45 PM PDT reply actions

also funny that we still play everybody except NO

Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game

by iDea on Mar 23, 2009 5:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Rec? I don't see it

by blazer91 on Mar 23, 2009 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Thanks for policing the blog, you're doing an amazing job

But it’s there.

Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game

by iDea on Mar 24, 2009 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions

Sorry. Wasn't really policing, just a shameless plug to try to get my rec numbers up.

Thanks for the rec.

by blazer91 on Mar 24, 2009 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions

No worries, I still enjoy the post and the daily updates

I was already playing the game at home, trying to figure out who to root for……now I don’t have to do all the work, I can just check here. Thanks.

Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game

by iDea on Mar 25, 2009 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions

heh heh heh

I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.

by haildablazer on Mar 25, 2009 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions

Wow Pheonix has it rough

they are gonna have to go on a tear beating many of our rivals to finish with 10 wins out of 14

Go Blazers
Go Pheonix

by tevisthe4th on Mar 23, 2009 6:06 PM PDT reply actions

I'm not smart enough to make sense of anything laid out in front of me....

I need meat….

or one of them glorified smart comments to go along with it, so I can disagree with it.

I mean, it’s pretty and all, but I would like to have something to complain about .

geezzz. ;)

thanks though, I do appriciate it, despite my complaints of not having anything to complain about.

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.

by faith on Mar 23, 2009 6:27 PM PDT reply actions

muuuuuuch better...

but uh…lol…the only thing to complain about is about how we played..and I don’t think that’s really necessary, do you ? ;)

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.

by faith on Mar 24, 2009 8:33 PM PDT up reply actions

this is interesting

Looking at who has been the hottest and who hasn’t been as of late… I don’t think that the win at home rule will work for some of these teams, particularly San Antonio. San Antonio could easily finish 4th or lower, which would be a major shock considering where they were earlier in the season.

Chris Dudley for three!

by wilbjammin on Mar 23, 2009 7:10 PM PDT reply actions

well...

that didnt happen. bc we just pooned out to the sixers tonight.

ARRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGH!!!!!!!!- Sabonis getting fouled.

by sabonis on Mar 23, 2009 10:45 PM PDT reply actions

throws the entire universe out of whack.

this fanpost should evaporate.

by BlazerBen on Mar 23, 2009 11:02 PM PDT up reply actions

naw..updated post is still cool.

by Dwad on Mar 24, 2009 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions

This drops us to a tie with Houston/Denver

Both who have the tiebreaker against us if things play out this way. We need to win in Houston to make one up AND get the tie breaker from them.

by Zaig on Mar 23, 2009 11:27 PM PDT reply actions

Yep. Make it so

"The match in Los Angeles is a good opportunity to begin to demonstrate that we want to make war." Rudy Fernández (translated)

by G_dubs on Mar 24, 2009 12:09 AM PDT up reply actions

if we go the rest of the way with only those two losses

in Texas, we will be red hot and rolling for the playoffs.

Boy do I want home court advantage in the first round. That would be awesome. – Elgin

Blazers win BDL 2 on 2 tournament!
Skeets: i’ll close it down now … congrats. you bastards

by 22baylor on Mar 24, 2009 12:10 PM PDT reply actions

I like this

Thanks

"The match in Los Angeles is a good opportunity to begin to demonstrate that we want to make war." Rudy Fernández (translated)

by G_dubs on Mar 24, 2009 6:01 PM PDT reply actions

If we go 9-2 like you say

Hoooooo doggy!!1

Karma

by Sabonis4Ever on Mar 24, 2009 8:15 PM PDT reply actions

Thank you thank you thank you

I’m tired of trying to figure out who I should root for. It was making my brain hurt.
A 3 seed would be amazing, a glorified 5 seed not as much, but still better than the 8.
Thanks again!

by TheThinWhiteDuke on Mar 25, 2009 12:26 AM PDT reply actions

A five seed would be phenomenal

Even without the injuries, that would have been a very good accomplishment for this year. With the injuries, it would be incredible.

I still think 3 or 4 is in reach, maybe even 2 if the Spurs keep trying to lose to the Warriors. But don’t play down what this team has accomplished this year, even if they don’t achieve a high seed.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 25, 2009 3:00 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

interesting stuff

well done. It would be awesome to have updates of this as we creep closer. I hope we can punish Phoenix Thursday night!

"Rudy’s flashy passes had the place whispering to each other like we were in junior high" ~BlazermaniacAndy

by courtsideerrandboy on Mar 25, 2009 1:08 AM PDT reply actions

Another way to break it down to max Portland seed:

1. We want Portland to win every game.
2. We want the other 7 to lose every game.
3. When 2-9 play eachother, we want the team with the worse record to win.
4. If we have a better shot at the NW crown than a “natural” 3 or 4 seed, we want Denver and Utah to lose even if it contradicts (3).

Unless we start imploding:

Then we want Phoenix and Dallas to lose every game.

by Blazin' on Mar 25, 2009 2:43 AM PDT reply actions

That is very concise

and yet comprehensive enough to cover all bases.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 25, 2009 3:01 AM PDT up reply actions

Ex-friggin' Zactly

Nicely put!

"The match in Los Angeles is a good opportunity to begin to demonstrate that we want to make war." Rudy Fernández (translated)

by G_dubs on Mar 25, 2009 3:07 AM PDT up reply actions

That's pretty much what I've been going by when I decide who to root for

Witty Unpredictable Talent and Natural Game

by iDea on Mar 25, 2009 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions

Only problem

with always rooting for lower ranked team is that there are some teams with a lot less tough games, so if they happen to be ranked lower now but have more cupcakes later, you might want them to get a loss now, while the “other” (higher-ranked) team might have a tougher later schedule, meaning they are likely to lose later and we can stomach them winning now.

An example of this is New Orleans, who is highly ranked now, but has a BRUTAL closing two weeks. We would be okay with them knocking off some people for us.

by blazer91 on Mar 25, 2009 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions

If the Blazers just win the games they're supposed to, they'll be fine

You know, like beating a crummy Philly team at home.

Blazer Fan

by leeroyjenkins on Mar 25, 2009 8:42 AM PDT reply actions

Yeah, cause we all know how bad Philly is right now

And if we forget, ask the L@kers. They know, too.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 25, 2009 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions

thanks blazer91

this post is easy to understand—thanks for the hard work….

It's spelled "PRZYBILLA."
vanillathrillagorillaprzybilla

by RenoBlazerFan on Mar 25, 2009 10:19 AM PDT reply actions

Home losses in both New Orleans and Atlanta tonight

So Denver and San Antonio get a boost, they won games they were expected to lose.

Let’s hope the Suns hold home court.

by baduk on Mar 25, 2009 7:41 PM PDT reply actions

What happens

If 3 way tie, but we have TB over Houston, they have it over Denver, and Denver has it over us?

Would it just go to the next tie breaker?

by Zaig on Mar 26, 2009 11:28 AM PDT reply actions

Tiebreakers

If we are in a tie with Denver, that tie gets broken first to determine division winner. Then that division winer’s seeding is determined against Houston based on the tiebreaker between them.

by blazer91 on Mar 26, 2009 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions

You should do what Jscot does

I bet he cuts and pastes sometimes. For me it is confusing for a post to seem to go away and then there are all these comments that I’ve already read. There is all this stuff that I already read and I don’t know if I should just read the top or skip to the bottom.

To be honest, you gotta earn your recs for the top 5, you just can’t keep recycling them by hitting “update.”

by tominhawaii on Mar 26, 2009 12:27 PM PDT reply actions

Should I start a new post each day?

I will do so if people want me clogging with fanposts, but given the interest in the post, I am happy to keep it alive allowing people to find it by updating.

I’m obviously not trying to “earn my recs” for the top 5, as I earned that the first day this was posted. I am only updating so people can continue to find it, but if people would prefer me to start a new post each day with this same information, I suppose I can do that. Feel free to reply and if there is a strong sentiment for that, I will do it.

Meanwhile, if you’re worried about reading only new comments, see below:

Press C to tab through new comments, Shift-C to tab backwards, X to mark a comment as read, and Shift-A to mark all read.
Z will simultaneously mark and tab forward, and R will reply to the comment that has focus.

by blazer91 on Mar 26, 2009 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions

If you can keep this updated on a daily basis,

it will be quite popular and appreciated. I’ve already linked to to settle a discussion on another site. The left over mess does make it less enticing. But it’s an very useful tool, so I will keep using it even if you don’t want to put in the work to clean it up and make it nicer.

Blazer Fan

by Screen Name on Mar 26, 2009 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions

how did you come up with your screen name?

Tweet me!

by prezofdeath on Mar 26, 2009 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions

Stroke of genius

Addendum, to blazer91, your fanpost is precisely the type of content that fuels this site and makes coming hear worthwhile. You would not be “clogging” up the fanposts.

Blazer Fan

by Screen Name on Mar 26, 2009 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions

I think it would be better as a new post

Just cut and paste.

Then add a section, NEW COMMENTS AFTER 3/26 (or whatever) if you’ve added comments. Otherwise, just say “Updated records”

You know what you’ve changed/added, but no one else does.

Since we’re talking format, I suggest you not use bold for entire paragraphs, just the headers and, on occasion, one or two points you really want to emphasize. If you yell at someone all the time, it loses it’s impact when you yell.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 26, 2009 11:39 PM PDT up reply actions