The Sched Ahead -- March 2 Weekly Update

SUMMARY INFO (rehashed)

Four categories of games (now with additional names for the non-numerically inclined):

1. Home games against sub .500 teams.  Cream Puff Home.
2. Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category).  Jawbreaker Home.
3. Road games at losing teams.  Banana Peel Road.
4. Road games at winning teams.  Rocky Road.

A general formula for success in the NBA is to win almost all of Cat 1 (Cream Puff Home), a majority of Cat 2 (Jawbreaker Home) and Cat 3 (Banana Peel Road), and win some in Cat 4 (Rocky Road).  The contenders may win more than half of their Cat 4 games.

Discussed further by ulc and here. 

Last Week

Two Weeks Ago

DAILY UPDATE

Yesterday's update.

E-mail to the league:  If you tortuously interfere with our playoff chances when we play on your court, we'll return the favor when we see you in Portland.  Nice to see good ball movement -- even good defenses break down eventually when you move the ball.

Detroit gets a nice win at Boston to move back to .500, so categories flip back to where they were at the start of the week.  Look for Rip to keep starting the rest of the season.

Phoenix, without Nash again, got a nice win at home against the L@kers.  Shaq can still do a few things on the court.  Everyone counted these guys out when Amare went down, but as I said at the time, "chemistry is a funny thing."  They still have a long way to go, and they have to go out on the road this week.  Should be interesting.

Chris Paul had two steals in the last minute and the Hornets pulled out a close one at New Jersey. 

Jarrett Jack had 28 points and 8 assists, one of the better games he's played for Portland, to lead the Pacers past Denver.  He also had three turnovers, but word is still out on whether or not any of them were stepping out of bounds.  No one should think the Pacers are a pushover, even without Granger.  Especially in Indiana.  Division leaders just can't win there.

As I predicted, Houston came out after it right from the start, despite a back to back, and put the Timberwolves down quickly.  You can always count on me to remind you if I actually get a prediction right.  I'm dependable that way.  Too bad, there was always a chance -- Houston has been really bad on the road recently.  I'm happy to see them drop one of the Chicago/Minnesota games, though -- can't really complain about that.

Jason Kidd passed 10,000 assists (will likely pass Magic Johnson in assists this year to move into 3rd on the all time list), Jason Terry returned from injury, and Dallas continued to take care of business with a home win over Toronto.  This is the first of 5 in 7 nights for the Mavs.  The next two weeks may tell us a lot about where they will finish.

Utah got a win on a back to back at G.S.  That would normally be considered quite an accomplishment, but Monta Ellis was rested because his ankle is still giving him trouble, and Jax was rested because, well, because Nellie doesn't like us or something.  Both of our division rivals have now won games when their opponents simply decided to rest healthy stars.  That's 8 in a row for the Jazz as they dig themselves out of the depths.  They are really rolling, and might not lose this week, either. 

COMMENTS ON THE WEEK

Category Shifting.  Both Detroit and Philly dropped below .500 but are back to that level again.  Shifts during the week, but none since this time last week.

Portland (2-2) lost two Rocky Road (Cat 4) games, won a Banana Peel Road (Cat 3)  and a Jawbreaker Home (Cat 2).  Decent week, slight improvement.

Dallas (3-1) won 3 Cream Puff Home (Cat 1) games and lost a Rocky Road (Cat 4) at S.A.  Lost some ground.

Denver (2-2) won 2 of 3 Jawbreaker Home (Cat 2) games, beating Atlanta and L.A. and getting crushed by Dallas, and dropped a Banana Peel (Cat 3) at Indiana.  Lost ground.

Houston (3-1) had two nice Jawbreaker Home wins (Portland, Cleveland) and a Banana Peel Split on the road (Chicago, Minnesota).  Gained ground, looking dangerous. 

L.A. (2-2) won two at home, a Cream Puff (Cat 1) vs. OKC and a Jawbreaker (Cat 2) vs. Phoenix, then lost two Rocky Roads at Denver and Phoenix. 

N.O. (4-0) is back on track and looking dangerous, winning two Banana Peels on the road and two at home, against Milwaukie and Detroit.   

Phoenix (3-1) had their second good week in a row and are looking like a team that wants to make a run and get back in the hunt.  People may have counted them out too soon.  Two Cream Puff (Cat 1) home wins sandwiched around a Rocky Road loss in L.A., but then finishing the week with a nice Jawbreaker home (Cat 2) win against the L@kers.  6-2 since the all-star break, but almost all of those games have been at home, and only one win against a winning team in that stretch.  This week, they get to try the road. 

The Spurs (2-2) basically held position, going 2-1 on Cat 2 Jawbreaker Home games (wins against Dallas and Portland, loss to Cavs) and then losing a Rocky Road last night.  A pretty good week considering their injury situation.   

Utah (4-0) is finally a winning team in Banana Peel Road games (Cat 3) after winning two, and added a Cream Puff Home (Cat 1) win and a Jawbreaker Home (Cat 2) win against Atlanta.   

Helped themselves:  Houston, N.O., Phoenix, Utah.

Treading Water: Portland, S.A.

Hurt themselves:  Dallas, Denver, L.A.

The tables:

Cat 4 -- Rocky Road

Things are heating up, and teams are defending their home court.  Not one contender got a win in this category.  Portland and L.A. lost two, Dallas, Phoenix, and S.A. lost one.  Are we glad we only have five of these left?  We are glad.  Are we glad Utah has 10 and Phoenix and Houston have 8?  We are very glad.

Cat 3 -- Banana Peel Road 

Denver (for the second week in a row) and Houston each lost one in this category this week.

Cat 2 -- Jawbreaker Home

Denver and S.A. were the only teams to take a loss in this category this week (both against Eastern elites).  Both offset the losses with two quality wins in this category as well.

Cat 1 -- Cream Puff Home

No losses in these games this week, either, for the second week in a row.  As I said last week, "Concentration is up as the playoff battle heats up, and we'll probably see fewer losses in this category than we did earlier."  If you think we might have a chance at Denver, just remember that they still have nine of these left.  If you are concerned about Dallas passing us, just remember that they have been feasting on these all year but only have three left.

All Home Games

We are still rampant at home.  Utah has three fewer home games left than we have. 

All Away Games

There are still only two really strong road teams (and we beat one of them last night).  It would be really good to see that road record get up close to .500 -- we're kind of lagging behind the pack in road winning percentage.

All Games Against Winning Teams

Edge to Denver, disadvantage to Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, and Utah, as far as remaining games is concerned.  We're still quite competitive here.

All Games Against Losing Teams

We've caught Denver in win pct vs. losing teams -- but most of their remaining games against losing teams are at home while 6 of our 11 are on the road.

Back to Back Games

We cleared one of these, get another this week at Denver.  It would be really, really, really good to win that one.  Really good, with potential tiebreaker ramifications vs. both Denver and Utah. 

Winning/Losing Standings

How many games have been played against winning teams, and how many against losing teams -- and how many are remaining.

Check out Houston, Dallas, Utah, and Phoenix -- a lot of tough games left.

The Important Stuff

Here is the vital stuff:  the jscot Stupid Sched Projections, with 30 day min/max/avg/30 days ago history. 

Standard Disclaimer:  How these work (if they can be said to work, which is doubtful), and why they are stupid, is explained in previous posts.  Do not blame me.  This is only the numbers.  It isn't the spreadsheet's fault, either, the spreadsheet is only doing what it is told to do.  Someone was stupid enough to tell the spreadsheet to do it, but we don't want to discuss that.

Playoff seedings if everyone keeps winning in every category at exactly the same rate for the rest of the season, and if no .500 or better team turns into a losing team, or vice versa (is that enough disclaimers)?

See the original disclaimer in the very first post (linked above).  Also see the new disclaimer in this post, if you care.  If you don't care, I don't either, but don't blame me.

1. L.A. -- 65.5 wins, down from 67.0.
2. S.A. -- 55.5 wins, unchanged, but up from 3rd.  (min 54.4, max 57.2, avg 56.0, 30 days ago 56.8) 
3. Denver -- 54.8 wins, down from 55.5 in 2nd.  (min 54.3, max 57.6, avg 55.7, 30 days ago 54.8)
4. Portland -- 52.1 wins, up from 51.9.  (min 51.2, max 53.8, avg 52.0, 30 days ago 52.6)
5. Houston -- 51.5 wins, up from 50.6.  (min 49.4, max 51.5, avg 50.3, 30 days ago 50.4)
6. N.O. -- 51.1 wins, up from 49.3.  (min 49.2, max  53.5, avg 50.5, 30 days ago 53.5). 
7. Dallas -- 47.8, down from 48.5.  Hurt by the S.A. loss, still taking care of business against bad teams.  (min 47.8, max 50.8, avg 49.1, 30 days ago 48.8)
8. Utah -- 47.7 wins, up from 46.1.   (min 43.8, max 47.7, avg 45.4, 30 days ago 43.8). 
9. Phoenix -- 45.8 wins, up from 44.7.   (min 42.5, max 45.8, avg 44.2, 30 days ago 42.5)

Min/Max/Avg

Note that three teams, Houston, N.O., Utah, and Phoenix are solidly above their avg for the last 30 days, and are trending up.  My spreadsheet still doesn't like the L@kers for some reason, so I'm not providing their numbers.

The Coming Week

Well, everyone kind of hung in there, no big movements despite the tough games on the schedule last week.  This week may be the one that finishes Phoenix....

1. Portland.  Two home games that should be easily winnable sandwiched around a really tough one at Denver.  Win the home games and at worst we drop a little ground.  Lose one of them and we have to win at Denver.  Win all three and you can start to think about home playoff games and a possible division title.   
2. Dallas.  @OKC on a back to back, home games against S.A. & Washington, and a game at N.O.  3 wins would be a good week, less and they look pretty vulnerable. 
3. Denver.  Tough week -- at rejuvenated Detroit Tuesday, home to Portland Thursday, @ Utah (back to back), @ Sac.  Three wins would be a great week.  If we can beat them, it could be a very bad week for them.
4. Houston.  3 home games (two Cream Puffs and Phoenix), and a tough back to back at Utah.  Expect 3 wins.
5. L.A.  Won't lose this week, will next week.
6. N.O.  @Philly tonight on a back to back, then 2 home games (including Dallas).  2 wins would be good, 3 would be great.
7. Phoenix.  The week of death for Phoenix.  4 Rocky Road games, back to back in Florida then a night off before playing in Houston and another off before playing in San Antonio.  If they are still only 3 behind us at the end of this week, it will be totally amazing.  One win would be a decent week, two wins would be very, very good.
8. S.A.  @Clips (tonight, on a back to back), @Dallas, then home games against Washington and Phoenix.  Will be looking for 3 wins, but tonight could be tricky for them. 
9. Utah.  Home games against Houston and Denver, both of which will be on a back to back.  Then, they begin a tough five game Eastern swing on Sunday at Toronto.  Will be looking to sweep again this week -- Sunday may be the toughest of the three.

Head to Head -- Houston

There is a lot of focus around the Bedge these days on Houston as our rivals for the #4 seed.  As long as we keep winning the home games, and beat the teams we should on the road, we're certainly in the hunt for that.  I should warn you that I will be surprised, even though Houston is in 4th right now, if they hang on to that spot -- the greatest threats to us are N.O. and Utah.  It is also possible (though I still consider it unlikely) that we pass Denver, and still finish fourth because one of those other teams passes us.

In any event, I thought it would be of interest to compare our schedule ahead with Houston's.  We are even with them in the loss column, one behind in the win column.  Since the all-star break, we are 5-2, they are 6-1.  Our two losses were Rocky Road (Cat 4) -- they have not played any Cat 4s since the break.

Houston has 11 road games left.  So do we.  5 of ours are against winning teams, 8 of theirs.  Of those games against winning teams, 3 of ours are on a back to back (Denver, Cleveland, S.A.), 2 of theirs are (Utah and Denver).  Neither of us would be favored in those games, even if they weren't on a back to back, so that may be irrelevant.  The heavier schedule against winning teams is very much in our favor.

Houston has 3 road games against losing teams, one of which is a back to back (Golden State).  They are 8-8 on the road against losing teams.  We have 6 left, two of which are back to back (Memphis, Clippers).  I would rather play at Clippers on a back to back than play at L@kers, as Houston still has to do.  I would rather play at Memphis on a back to back than at G.S. on a back to back.  Our road schedule is definitely easier, and we should expect to gain a game or two on them in the remaining road games.

Houston has 11 home games left, we have 12.  Both have 7 left against winning teams.  We have five left against losing teams, they have four.  One of their home games is a back to back, against S.A., after playing in Charlotte the night before.  The Spurs will have had a day off, and will be coming off a four game home stand.  Manu should be back by then, as well.  Houston should expect a war in that one.  

They have really tough home games against L.A., Orlando, and S.A.  We have L.A. (2, one they will be on a back to back) and Denver.  We also have Dallas, Utah, Phoenix, and Philly all coming in on a back to back.  I see us winning those four, and probably 2 of the other 3.  They have N.O. and Detroit both on a back to back (they should win those) and Phoenix and Portland.  Their home schedule against winning teams is definitely also tougher than ours.  At worst, we should break even with them, and probably gain a game or two, in the remaining home games against winning teams.

We host Indiana, Minnesota, N.J., Memphis, and OKC.  We should win all of those, but could drop one.  They host Toronto, Memphis, Minnesota, and Clippers.  This is the only part of the schedule where their road really looks easier -- we've got a couple dangerous games, games we definitely should win but could drop, while they probably shouldn't have much trouble with any of those.   At best, we will likely break even with them, and might drop a game, in remaining home games against losing teams.

I see a significant edge the rest of the way against Houston.  The Rose Garden has been a great advantage for us this year, and should continue to be -- of our seven tough opponents at home, four come in on a back to back.  As long as we hold our home court reasonably well and continue to do the job on the road against losing teams, we should be able to gain an advantage on the Rockets.

Tiebreaker: 1-1 with one game remaining in Houston.  If we win that, we will also win the tiebreaker, but probably won't need it.  If we lose it, they win the tiebreaker, and it helps narrow the schedule advantage that we have.

Tonight's Games

N.O. at Philly.  Hornets on a back to back.  Philly loss would cause category switches.

Dallas at OKC.  Mavs on a back to back.  Dangerous for them.

S.A. at Clippers.  The third of our rivals with a back to back.  L.A. is mostly healthy, so is also dangerous.

Philly would have to be favored against the Hornets, but not overwhelmingly.  The other two games, if we're lucky we catch a break in one of them.  It will be a disappointment if all of our rivals win, but pretty surprising if more than one of them loses.  Perhaps someone in the crowd last night was making a Timmy doll and will be sticking needles in it every time he shoots tonight, or something.