Oden off the Bench? An Analysis

by PoliSam on Mar 17, 2009 8:24 AM PDT Comment 74 comments

Reports suggest that Oden will soon start playing again for the Blazers. There has been a lot of discussion about whether he should start or come off the bench when he returns. My guess is that he will come of the bench, simply because Nate tends to be risk adverse when making rotation decisions. Nonetheless, I wanted to see what an analysis of past games would say about the subject. My analysis suggests that the team has played quite a bit better with Oden coming off the bench, about 6.3 points better than it has played on average. By constrast, when Oden started the Blazers have played at their season average.

Measuring the Oden off Bench and Oden Starting "Effects"

Building off the methodology I used in a previous post I estimated the "effect" of starting Oden vs. bringing him off the bench. In particular, I compared the margin of victory in games that Oden came off the Bench to those in which Oden started, controlling for the following factors:

Opponent's Average Margin of Victory (so Cleveland is Good, Sacaremento is Bad)

Opponent's Average Home/Away Advantage/Disadvantage (which varies by team, see previous post).

Either Team playing on a Back to Back, which hurts teams, on average, about 1 point per game.

Whether or not either Team played 5 games or more in 7 days, which hurts teams, on average, about 1.7 points per game.

Whether or Not Roy Played. The Blazers have played about 7 points better per game when Roy has played than when he was out with injury.

Whether or Not Rudy Played. The Blazers have played about 10 points better when Rudy has played than when he is out.

Whether or Not Blake Played. The Blazers have played about half a point better when Blake has played than when he was injured (counting the Philly and Clippers games as injured games).

By my count, Oden came off the bench in 7 games and started 39 games. Controlling for the factors above, the Blazers have played about 6.3 points better with Oden comeing off the bench than in games where he started or was injured. By contrast, when Oden started, the Blazers have played no better or worse than average. Note that if the Blazers had played better than average with Oden as a starter, then one would have to compare the Oden Bench advantage to the Oden Starting advantage. However, because the Blazers played no better when Oden started than when he was injured, the "benefit" of playing Oden off the bench is simply 6.3 points per game.

Since Oden only came of the Bench in 7 games these results should certainly be seen as tenative. Indeed, the "Oden Off the Bench Effect" is not statistically significant, if one were to use a standard hypothesis test. That being said, it is interesting to look at the seven games he came of the bench to investigate the matter further. The following are Oden's Bench games:

Team1	Points1	Team2	Points2	Unexpected Margin	H/A
Portland	104	Miami	96	10.23562	A
Portland	82	NewOrleans	87	-0.8711184	A
Portland	88	Minnesota	83	-0.9047602	A
Portland	106	GoldenState	111	-2.983838	A
Portland	116	Chicago	74	32.24477	H
Portland	117	Sacramento	96	14.08401	A
Portland	92	Phoenix	102	-5.479679	A

The Unexpected Margin, is the margin of victory over what was expected, controlling for all of the factors listed above. The Chicago game is certainly an outlier and helps Oden's Bench average, but its important to note that there are no terrible games in that seven game stretch, which is significant in itself. Indeed, the worst game was a loss to the Suns in Phoenix before Amare got hurt and when the Suns were playing relatively well. My guess is that its hard to get pummeled when your back-up center collects 5 offensive rebounds.

Caveats

I put effect in quotes because this is certainly not definitive evidence that the Blazers should bring Oden off the bench rather than start him. There are a variety of alternative explanations for the team playing better with Oden off the bench that I cannot rule out. Among other things, it may have taken teams a few games to figure out how to defend Oden; injuries to Deng in the Chicago game and Martin in the Kings game probably overstate the results; and as mentioned above, the sample size is small and margins of victory are quite noisy-the result could be a fluke--the equivalent of winning a hand of Texas Hold'em starting with a pair of sevens (which is an okay, but not great starting hand).

Discussion

That being said, this analysis does suggest that there is a real chance that the Blazers will get a nice little "Oden Bump" if he, once again, comes off the bench when he returns. In fact, the model used to do the analysis above predicts that the Blazers would finish the season 51-29 31 if Oden does not return at all. If he returns and comes of the bench Wednesday, the model predicts that the Blazers will win 54 games. That difference is enough to give the Blazers home court advantage in the first round. He could easily make the difference in games against at Indiana and Milwaukee and would give the Blazers a better chance to beat LA, Houston, Denver, and San Antonio.

Will Nate continue to start Pryzbilla when Oden returns? Will Nate do it for the rest of the season? Should he? Does the analysis above pick up something real or was it a fluke? If its real, why does Oden fit better with the second unit? Would Oden still benefit from playing in the second unit if Bayless remains the back-up point guard? This one will be intersting to watch.

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Comments

I love it. +1

Couldn’t the Blazers just pound the ball into Oden on the second unit? He’s not taking shots away from anyone important (sorry Rudy) and I can’t think of a backup center that could actually guard him super effectively.

In a seven game series that could be a real problem for the apposing team. How much can he rest his main big man knowing Oden is going to be coming in the game? Are we building a super bench?

by Nick Van Excellent on Mar 17, 2009 8:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I hope Greg does

come off the bench when he returns, because I think it is “in his head” that he hasn’t earned the starting spot yet, even if that is not how the NBA works. Because of this, I feel that if Nate brings him off the bench Greg will play harder and better while trying to “earn” that starting spot.

by usmcr3049 on Mar 17, 2009 8:48 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

You know, I really agree with this...

Another way of lessening expectations, which have not helped the man…

The way it was handled, Oden was given the starting spot like it was his birthright — as if you say, we know you’re gonna rebound better than Pryz, defend like Hakeem, and score like Shaq…

Not the best set of expectations for a green rook to have to deal with…

Oden has shown the ability to dominate PFs playing out of position at the 5. And what better way to maximize those mismatches than to bring him off the bench against the opposing backup centers???

Pontiff of the Pryz for Prez Posse...

by timbo on Mar 17, 2009 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

That is a really excellent point

It goes right to Nate’s “earn it” philosophy, which he discarded one guesses because Pryz is a wonderful team-oriented player who recognized GO as “the future”. But we can see it easily on Oden’s face how happy he is when he truly succeeds on the court. Making him earn it is the right thing to do and there is little doubt that he, himself, will appreciate that.

by blazerwizard on Mar 18, 2009 5:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You must be a carpenter...

hitting the nail on the head like that. Very good point about Greg maybe not feeling like he’s earned the starting job.

by antediluvian on Mar 18, 2009 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would just like Greg to play.

My favorite teams are the Blazers and any team that is playing the Lakers.

by OCBlazerFan1 on Mar 17, 2009 9:06 AM PDT reply actions 3 recs

yes.

I second this motion.

Let’s just get the big fella on the court. I don’t care how at this point.

Give the man his "M"!!!

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Mar 17, 2009 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Rec for both of you

Blazers win!

by The X-man on Mar 17, 2009 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

greg off the bench

would put him in a position where less pressure is on him and more scoring opportunities are created for him.. in general, the playing time should remain the same though. But one point that has been made is that the 2nd unit are not known for sharing the ball well, with TO creating his own shots, Rudy not yet a playmaker, then Oden would have to get his shots off rebounds, which is what he was already doing in the starting lineup.
I think if the team brings Oden off the bench, Nate has to be wise with his lineup choices… like keep Roy in the game when Oden checks in so that the ball actually gets to Greg while he’s in the game.

by jbm01 on Mar 17, 2009 9:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I feel that Rudy is a playmaker

but Portland is just not using him correctly. he is not the same type of playmaker as Roy, he can’t drive the lane on his own, he needs a good screen or he needs to be already moving to be able to drive. However he is an excellent passer, and PDX needs to take advantage of it. I believe Nate should get the ball into Rudy’s hands on every possession that Roy is not in the game. I don’t mean give it to him at the top of the key ala Joel either, but get him on the move with the ball, while other players are cutting to the rim and to the 3 point line. Rudy has shown he is able to make the pass to get the ball in the hands of a scorer, let him flurish in that role. I believe Rudy could avg 4+ assist if given the opportunity, and with the move to Bayless as the back up point, now is the time to let Rudy loose.

by usmcr3049 on Mar 17, 2009 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs

I've missed you devildog.

Good to seee you again. Good points too.

+1!

Bedge or go home.

by Ojala John on Mar 17, 2009 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gotta agree

we have a system, but that system doesn’t use a number of players to the best of their ability.

The goal is not to be better, the goal is to be the best.

by ratbastird on Mar 23, 2009 8:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can Nate grow a pair?

This is the right move, but can Nate make the adjustment?

by Zaig on Mar 17, 2009 9:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

He already said the other day that Oden would come off the bench because Joel earned the starting spot

by tominhawaii on Mar 17, 2009 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did he?

Why did Dave not report on this, and if he did how did I miss that?

by Zaig on Mar 17, 2009 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dunno

it was announced in the last week at some point.

draft dejuan blair

by Cablinasian on Mar 17, 2009 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cool!

And now Bayless fans can hype how improved the second unit is under him.

by Zaig on Mar 17, 2009 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oden will come off the bench according to my "sources"

Cablinasian is right, I sort of announced this last week. In a previous post I had mentioned that I was at an event where Nate was doing Q and A and was asked about Oden. He said that when Oden returned he would be coming off the bench and would remain coming off the bench throughout the rest of the season (not sure if he said regular season or just season). But, he did sound pretty set with his decision so it sounds like that is the plan unless things have changed. He did mention that this was the first time he had said this publicly and that the other coaches didn’t even know yet. Like I said in my original post he might have said that more to make the audience feel important (it was the Wells Fargo Fantasy Day) as I’ve got to think that was decided and discussed before he spoke to us. I’ve never had “sources” before so I really hope that Nate doesn’t change him mind…

by ThereGoDaGame on Mar 17, 2009 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

To me it's almost a non issue

It’s almost disrespectful to Nate, Przybilla, everyone on the team, and management to think that Oden would come back and start. Everyone is focused on the playoffs now and Przybilla is the obvious starter. Even I can’t make up an argument for Oden to start.

by tominhawaii on Mar 17, 2009 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Respecting Przybilla" hasn't been on Nate's radar before now -- not sure that qualifies as an argument for Oden to start, but it is indicative of precedence...

Pontiff of the Pryz for Prez Posse...

by timbo on Mar 17, 2009 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree...

Joel has worked very hard to improve his game and has turned into a very consistent presence in the first unit. I think he has definitely earned the right to keep his spot. I also agree that this is a great opportunity to insert Greg into the second unit. I think he’ll do wonderful there, adding the interior defense that’s currently missing and giving the team another scoring threat from the inside. He should help take pressure off the guards by matching up against the opposing team’s backup center. It will likely give him the confidence boost I think he needs, at this point.

by dbomb on Mar 17, 2009 9:40 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

You know what else is cool about it?

That when Oden has like 11teenth ring and ESPN is doing the NBA’s Greatest Player Ever vignette, that they’ll show the draft, the surgery, the coming off the bench, and then the domination!

by tominhawaii on Mar 17, 2009 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nate is playing playoff ball.

The rotation will get tighter and tighter. The roles will become more and more defined and constant. Joel starts. Greg plays as fouls allow. The back up pgs will become increasingly less important. LMA or Brandon will always be on the court. Travis will get all the burn his defense and rebounding will justify and might lead the team in minutes off the bench. People will start talking about our physicality. Everybody on both teams will approach breakaway dunks a bit more apprehensively. And we’ll win more than kids like ours should this late in the season.

Bedge or go home.

by Ojala John on Mar 17, 2009 11:05 AM PDT reply actions 3 recs

rec

Pretend I wrote something snarky. I agree though.

by tominhawaii on Mar 17, 2009 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the backup PG's would be better off and perform better if...

They had a true center coming off the bench with them. Either Greg or Joel. Without one or the other there’s no one really drawing defenders down low, because we know both GO and Joel can score (who’s better at scoring is up for debate!), which keeps the defenders honest and playing more man than zone.

IMHO, of course

Blazers win!

by The X-man on Mar 17, 2009 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's not up for debate

Oden’s better at scoring that Joel. He’s not the greatest, but he’s much better than Joel.

I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich

by hobobob on Mar 18, 2009 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

YES to off the bench

We would go from having a confidence imparied rookie in the starting line-up to having one of the better back-up centers in the league. You should play people to their strengths until they have confidence, then you ask them to grow. This is a great move for Oden.

by Sonic Boom on Mar 17, 2009 11:44 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

doesn't matter

Starting will not make as much of a difference as finishing.. so the real question is will Nate keep going small towards the end of games? Will Przy or Oden be the pivot when it counts.. that is what matters..

i swear, the nba should drop the term starter and go with the term finisher.. because the guys who are in at the end of games that matter are the guys who get all of the minutes..

that being said.. why mess with a starting unit that is actually looking really good right now..

"Slum dunk? You just go to the rim, and crush.. crush the ball in the rim."
- Nic Batum

by idoltime on Mar 17, 2009 12:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

i disagree. an early foul or two on a center can change a game quicky. while yes, it is more important who finishes, i think how you start the game can be almost as important.

Furthermore I think Greg should come off the bench. The second unit could really use some easy buckets and interior defense.

by dario argento on Mar 17, 2009 9:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

the beginning of games is important

but I can easily make a case for Joel coming off of the bench because I know that if Greg is in foul trouble that Joel comes in ready to be effective while Greg is up and down.

That’s why I don’t think it matters. Any center could get two early fouls and require a switch. If you can replace Joel with Greg or Greg with Joel, you do not lose as much interior presence as you get with Frye. But the one who can stay out of foul trouble to the end of game and can be a force at both ends will clearly be playing at the end, regardless of how the start went.

that all being said.. I don’t want to mess with the starting unit while it is playing well..

"Slum dunk? You just go to the rim, and crush.. crush the ball in the rim."
- Nic Batum

by idoltime on Mar 17, 2009 10:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

.

51-29? Are they going to skip a couple of games along the way? /s

Open invitation: all you who are self-proclaimed ping pong experts. If you think you can beat me - or if you just want to see how it's really played: cdd37@yahoo.com. This means you, too, Jerryd.

by TTRocks on Mar 17, 2009 12:59 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

2 ties

by Zaig on Mar 17, 2009 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

shortened season

stern read Dave’s post about contraction

by DucRider on Mar 18, 2009 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Boot the game at Cleveland?

by Zaig on Mar 18, 2009 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Floating point error

Darn Pentium 60.

by DonkeyShins on Mar 18, 2009 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

laughter and applause

and +1 – Elgin

Blazers win BDL 2 on 2 tournament!
Skeets: i’ll close it down now … congrats. you bastards

by 22baylor on Mar 18, 2009 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Missing the obvious

the teams he came off the bench against were one west playoff team and one east playoff team. All but NO are terrible defensive teams. What was our scoring average against similar teams with Oden starting?
If this is a point differential comparison +/- does not always equal wins.
If you are a better defensive team and rebounding team then you will win more games without scoring as many points. Does Oden make us better rebounding and defensively?
Joel can only sustain the big minutes for so long. He has a history of breaking down physically when he plays big minutes. This is by far his best season at 6pts 8.5 rebounds.
Plus he has historically struggled against the big centers. Yao, Duncan, and Dampier type players giive him fits. It could be argued that his production is better off the bench considering such factors. That said Oden has to come back and produce quick before it is even a consideration.

by Odenrising on Mar 17, 2009 1:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Eh?

Zilla looked pretty good against Duncan and Yao the last time around.

by Zaig on Mar 17, 2009 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

One game

against a certain player doesn’t make an advantage. In a series that would come to the surface. I love Joel’s game but he has a lot of offensive limitations. He has been great in Oden’s absence but it has only been for a short time. The reason we end up playing small ball at the end of so many games is Joel is a liability on offense. Not as much as he used to be, but still a liability.

by Odenrising on Mar 17, 2009 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The method that I used...

Controlled for the strength of the opponent. It explains margin of victory, not total points, so it doesn’t matter if you win games with defense or offense.

Previous margin of victory is a better predictor of future wins and losses than previous wins and losses.

by PoliSam on Mar 17, 2009 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think this data is flawed

No offense to you but I think the sample size is too small and there are too many other variables for this kind of in depth analysis. The post however does offer some good info and insight so I defenitely appreciate it.

I like Oden over Frye as a center so having him back will be great. I almost don;t think it matters if Oden starts or not. I like his scoring ability but I am not sure if the 1st or 2nd unit could use the scorer more.

by Escrote on Mar 17, 2009 1:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

The data is definitely limited...

But I figure that It’s still valuable to see what it says. I agree, however, that all of the caveats are vary important.

It looks like Oden is returning soon, so we will get to see if the projections of this model are correct… Actually, I am sure they are wrong, but we can see how wrong they are! I’ll do an update at the end of the season.

by PoliSam on Mar 17, 2009 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bring him back slow and off the bench

If Joel is having trouble with too many minutes/fouls/etc then increase Oden’s minutes in the backup role.

I agree the sample size is pretty small to assume the team is better with Oden as a backup, but at this point, it really strengthens the bench and allows Oden a chance to smarten up at committing fouls against (theoretically) weaker bench players from the opposing team

vanillathrillagorillaprzybilla

by RenoBlazerFan on Mar 17, 2009 2:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Raw points or pace adjusted?

It looks like you just used raw points in your analysis. Have you looked at pace adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies? It may not make a difference and that’s why you used the simpler raw data, but I’m curious. Either way, thanks for putting this out there.

You mentioned a model you used at the end of your post. Care to explain a bit more what it is? Bootstrapping? Multiple linear regression? Bayesian inference?

< /war >

by Diesel10 on Mar 17, 2009 2:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Raw points.

In trying to estimate the effect of Oden starting or coming off the bench on margin of victory, I don’t see a need to include pace adjusted offense or defense. Doing it this way might be misleading if pace is correlated with some of the key variables in the model, but I don’t think that it is. I would be most concerned with the teams that Oden came off the bench against. The average pace of those seven teams is probably faster than average, but not a lot and it includes one fast team the Blazers played poorly against. That being said, I agree that it would be interested to compare the effect that players have on offense and defense, but that’s not the way the data I used is set up.

The model is OLS with the variables described above. It predicts margin of victory in every game. If Portland was predicted to have a positive margin of victory, I counted that as a win. It would be easy to do something fancier… but for predicting an estimate of number of wins, bootstrapping isn’t going to give a different answer.

by PoliSam on Mar 17, 2009 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

I was curious about your model because you’ve posted some (really excellent!) analyses on here previously, and wasn’t sure if you were making different models for each analysis, or if you had some larger model or database that you were just pulling different things out of. Either way, thanks a ton for doing this! I love the way you put these analyses together.

< /war >

by Diesel10 on Mar 17, 2009 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

Different data. Different methodss. The unit of observation is different here than when I looked at team age. Here, I am analyzing each game. Before I was analyzing winning percentage by team, so the unit of observation was a team-year. Linear regression makes sense in this analysis because all of the variables are indicator variables: team, home v. away, back to back or not, players injured or not injured.

by PoliSam on Mar 17, 2009 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's my take...

Greg’s going to get the same amount of minutes either way due to his lag of conditioning and being a foul magnet. So start Joel for these reasons:

1. right now a better center
2. more confidence.
3. set the tone
4. eh, he’s earned it?

Roy Tribute
Treat people well because Karma can hit you at any second.

by Net Ranger on Mar 17, 2009 4:10 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I've thought

He should come off the bench all season. He’s a rookie who can buckle under pressure. Take away the pressure, watch him flourish.

Life is hilarious.

by SolGoode on Mar 17, 2009 5:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I say he should start

Blake is the best at getting him the ball and he needs to gel with Brandon and LaMarcus. Joel knows his role and would allow our second unit to make mistakes on defense. I don’t want to see Sergio make Greg give him screens over an over without giving him the ball.

Karma

by Sabonis4Ever on Mar 17, 2009 6:19 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs

While it doesn't look like Sergio will be playing much in the near future

people seem to forget how badly that second unit needs Joel. His experience there helped their D tremendously. Also, offensively, it’s much easier for Oden to get doubled on the second unit that it would be for on the first. On the first unit there’re a ton of offensive options. The second, not so much. The gel argument makes sense, but I think gel should be formed toward the beginning of seasons rather than down the stretch and in the playoffs.

I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich

by hobobob on Mar 18, 2009 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm a fan of Oden

And I definitely think he should be coming off the bench. Joel is our proven man, and GO should be his backup until he proves he got’s what it takes to be first chair. Meaning consistentcy. And that could take a year or two for the big man…

I have my P.h.D in unreliable hyperbole.

by Eat Politicians on Mar 17, 2009 6:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

joel has earned it.

i agree with the reasoning for oden to come off the bench. it will make the blazers stronger. there will be time next year for GO, broy, and LmA to gel. playoff time, baby.

by 5212872 on Mar 17, 2009 9:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Oden from the bench

I’m thinking I agree with up above comment that the weaker opponents may skew the numbers…

BUT, Pryz should kep starting anyway (as partly stated above by others)

-Timing for first unit needs to jell more, no time to incorporate change before playoffs
-Joel is playing great: you see all those blocks recently?
-Oden needs to get his game legs and lungs and timing back before facing the best
-Oden will cause mayhem on the second-string fake centers
-Oden will help shore up the defense on the second unit
-An Oden/RUDY! tandum can maximize Rudy’s shooting/cutting/passing
-Rudy’s passing/shot threat will get Oden into good position and stretch coverage

Oden back at strength for the stretch run and playoffs is that extra edge, the BLAZER’S EDGE!

Hey Nate, don’t foget to use the Ebony and Ivory Towers at opportune moments to get the enemy off-balance…

by Sashland on Mar 17, 2009 11:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Oden off the bench for the rest of the year …

Pure geniuos …

I like it ..

Honestly I really do ..

It would serve two fold reasons ..

1) – Grants Przybilla the honor of staying the Starter for the rest of the year which would make him want it again next year … thus Joel and Greg next year will push each other THAT much more to get that starting position …

2) – Brings Oden along , but at a slower clip , Taking ALL the pressure off the guy being able to come in later on in the game , makes it so that Oden can then start working his offensive game slower an gaining MORE consistancy on all his offensive attributes .

I like it ..

oh yeah .

by Lenwen76 on Mar 18, 2009 6:17 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree we're better (and greg's better) when oden is coming of the bench, but....

there is no way we win 54 games. show me the 12 games we win remaining on our schedule. even the most optimistic blazer fan can’t say Oden has been that impactful.

Bring back the Uncle Cliffy!

by hawkblogger on Mar 18, 2009 7:40 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Start Oden when he's back in shape

Joel’s been a beast on D. He’s not much, though, compared to what Oden will be when healthy. Short memories.

I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich

by hobobob on Mar 18, 2009 10:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

short memories is right.

I think Joel is great, but Greg has more than two times the number of double doubles in 21 less games. When Greg Oden is healthy and is able to play 30+ minutes and 70+ games next year, he’ll be a top 5 rebounder and a top 5 shot blocker. His averages this year reflect that.

by JAWKS on Mar 18, 2009 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

To be fair

The guards were pounding the rock to Greg far more than Joel. Przybilla gets a lot of his points off of putbacks.

by DonkeyShins on Mar 18, 2009 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's true but there's a reason that the team doesn't run plays for Joel.

I haven’t looked it up yet but I think the most points that Joel has averaged during a season is 7. I’m not trying to knock Joel because he’s one of my favorites, but Greg has some post up skills that he doesn’t. You are right though. They don’t give Joel a lot of chances to score. Joel’s game is not about stats though. He’s a warrior who sets the tone with D and leads by example. He brings the same intangibles that Nate Macmillan brought to the sonics. Nate never had great numbers but he was such a great leader and played good D. He was a huge part of those sonic teams.

by JAWKS on Mar 18, 2009 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Part of that has been due

To Joel having Hands Of Stone™. However, he apparently spent the entire offseason soaking them in Palmolive because they’ve become hands of pumice or perhaps even somewhat dried-out clay. He’s been able to hang onto the ball much better this year for some reason and even complete the pick & roll consistently, to the point that he has become a semi-legitimate scoring threat in the paint. This has forced opposing big men to have to play him honestly as opposed to sagging off and double-teaming LMA or Roy. In fact, I’ll argue that Joel’s improved finishing around the hoop has been one of the reasons that LMA has been on a tear lately.

by DonkeyShins on Mar 18, 2009 7:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

but also

the first team doesn’t need as much help on offense as the second unit. Oden is a perfect fit for the second unit in my opinion because it gives them a much needed offensive monster inside. First unit has LA….Joel provides rebounds and defense. He is a role player and a darned good one at that.

I love Joel’s game and I think he has earned first seat. GO will take it over soon I’m sure, but not this season. This season we need GO’s offense for the second unit.

I have my P.h.D in unreliable hyperbole.

by Eat Politicians on Mar 18, 2009 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oden won't be back in shape until next year

So I agree, start him when he is back in shape.

by Zaig on Mar 18, 2009 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

not that blake

can run a fast break, but sure….

I have my P.h.D in unreliable hyperbole.

by Eat Politicians on Mar 18, 2009 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

which reminds me

Bayless and oden on second unit…sick!

I have my P.h.D in unreliable hyperbole.

by Eat Politicians on Mar 18, 2009 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oden should be eased back in to the line up.

His play will dictate wether he starts or comes off of the bench. To me, there should not be a rush to get him back into the starting unit because the blazers have the luxury of having Joel on the team. Joel’s play lessens the pressure on Greg and the team has good chemistry with Joel in the starting five. I think Greg is in a great position because he knows that Joel has his back. Everyone knows that Oden is the future starter. Hopefully, Greg’s transition in the line up, be it as a starter or reserve, will happen naturally and will not be forced by the organization.

by JAWKS on Mar 18, 2009 11:17 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Oden should come off the bench.

That way PollSam will have more data to analyze to help us decide if Oden should be coming off the bench.

by Row J on Mar 18, 2009 11:28 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

The "Injury"

Was a hoax.

Nate decided that Greg needed to go to the bench and Pryz start (too much pressure, Greg not feeling right about his play, yada yada yada), but everyone would have been going nuts (media, front office, etc) that has Greg selling something.

So then, a bump that looked like nothing for most players, out a few days is the first prediction, but no, lets take advantage, out for a while, maybe weeks.

Joel steps up; Greg needs time to get in shape, so now he comes off the bench for a while.

Face saving moves for all.
< /conspiracy>

by DucRider on Mar 18, 2009 11:48 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

that was genius!

It's spelled "PRZYBILLA."
vanillathrillagorillaprzybilla

by RenoBlazerFan on Mar 18, 2009 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

LMA better with Joel in Starting Lineup

Though LMA has shown himself to be a stronger second half player the past couple of years, I wonder if part of his better play since the all start break this year has been due to playing with Joel at center as opposed to Greg.

by Cyclops@Centercourt on Mar 18, 2009 12:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I love batum but

I think he should go second unit, like Oden. That would put our most experienced players as our first unit and the European Union as the second.

blake, roy, outlaw, aldridge, pryz
rodriguez, fernandez, batum, <>, oden

9 man rotation going into the playoffs. I think there’s room to go small with that line up and enough length, also. Bayless is just making too many mistakes and it seems like we have forgotten how well rudy plays with sergio.

by by on Mar 18, 2009 1:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs