Game 67 Preview: Blazers vs. Grizzlies
by Dave on Mar 15, 2009 11:41 PM PDT
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PrintA Look at the Grizzles
The first thing you're going to notice about the Grizzlies is that their offense is like Gary Busey solving a Rubik's Cube: pretty slow and not much success.
Granted, the Blazers are the last ones in the league to be talking about pace. Portland generates fewer possessions per game than anyone else in the league. But because the Blazers don't turn the ball over they're actually 22nd in field goals attempted with those possessions. Their 8th place standing in field goal percentage and 6th place in three-point percentage means they get bumped up to 19th in field goals made and 15th in points generated overall. They don't use a lot of possessions in a game but they don't waste possessions either. Each one is measured and effective. In fact to throw one more stat at you, the Blazers are second only to the L*kers, and that by a nose, in points generated for every 100 possessions. That's exactly what you need when you play at a measured pace: offensive efficiency.
Now let's return to the Grizzlies.
Memphis is 23rd in the league in pace. That's seven spots higher than the Blazers. However they turn the ball over more and end up 27th in field goals attempted--five spots lower than Portland. But wait, there's more! The Grizzlies are 22nd overall in field goal percentage and 28th in three-point percentage, sinking both their field goals made and points per game to 29th. How efficient are they with their relative paucity of possessions? 29th in the league, ahead of only the Clippers. That's like finishing next-to-last in a Mother of the Year competition, just ahead of Jeffrey Dahmer.
Factor in their 23rd place finish in defensive efficiency and you begin to understand the 17-48 record.
What do the Grizzlies do well? You have to start with their two explosive scorers, O.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay. Mayo has been in a wee bit of a slump lately but he's still averaging 18.9 ppg on the season plus 4 rebounds and 3 assists. That's not bad for a rookie. He can hit threes. He can hit free throws. He's got a great offensive package. Ditto in most ways for Gay. He's less of an outside threat but you only have to see him streak down the floor and throw down a jam once to have him burned in your memory forever. He's averaging 18.7 ppg with 5.6 rebounds.
Then you have to move to two of guys who have been hot in the last couple of weeks. Center Marc Gasol has been giving solid returns all season but he dropped 30 a few games ago against Philadelphia and added 13 rebounds in that game and 15 a couple of games later against Boston. Interim Coach Lionel Hollins has taken a shine to point guard Mike Conley and has put the ball in his hands more. The result has been a string of double-digit games including 31 against Philly and 20 yesterday against Detroit.
Whatever the team record, these guys can ball. Their speed and athleticism (or skill in Gasol's case) can cause trouble for Portland's defenders. Plus they've been in attacking mode far more under Hollins than they were at the beginning of the season. If you leave them an opening they'll take it. (They're still having a massive amount of trouble hitting 100 though.)
Other than the occasional hiccup none of the other Grizzlies present serious threats. Darrell Arthur, Hakim Warrick, Darko Milicic, Darius Miles, Quinton Ross...none of these guys have sustained great play over a week, let alone the season. That lack of depth is another Memphis weakness.
The Grizzlies are an average defensive rebounding team, they can pick your pocket, and they draw a large number of free throws compared to their overall possessions (though they're not great at converting them). Those are the main team strengths.
Basically the Grizz hope that you don't run away from them. Then they bank on a couple of people having superb nights on the offensive end, pulling out the win.
Keys to the Game
1. As with the athletic Atlanta team, you want to control the boards in this game. The best way to frustrate potent offensive athletes is to make sure they don't touch the ball as much. Even though they're used to playing measured ball, it doesn't work for them. If every possession is dear to the Grizzlies they'll not score easily. Rebounding is the quickest way to ball control and thus to the win.
2. They're going to be overplaying a little on defense, maybe gambling. That's going to create openings. You're a fool if you don't attack through those. Gasol is a smart player but he's not a shot-blocker. Get inside and take it to them. Get their bigs in foul trouble and feast.
3. Mayo and Conley shoot the three-ball well. As a team, though, Memphis neither shoots many nor makes many. With those exceptions, go ahead and pack it in, keeping the interior Grizzly-free and making them beat you over the top. You don't need to stop their wings, just stay in front of them and drive them into help if they penetrate. After a while you'll see more jumpers and then the game is yours.
4. No fast break points for Memphis.
5. Both teams played on the road yesterday. The Blazers are apt to be more tired, having gone farther and still being on the road. For that reason (and to keep the crowd from energizing the home team) it would be smart for Portland to jump on the Grizz early and salt this thing away. They're accustomed to losing. Make them feel like it's just another night.
6. (Thanks to SabonisBonus for the memory jog.) Bench! Kill!
Final Thoughts
We're going to see Memphis once a week for the next three weeks. It's pretty hard to sweep a team four games in a season anyway, let alone when there's familiarity like that schedule engenders. But they haven't seen us that much yet and this game is pretty important from a psychological/emotional point of view for the team. I'll tell you the truth...I think the Blazers could pull off a surprise win in Cleveland. But I'd rather not have to in order to salvage the trip. That's a real possibility if the Blazers lose today. Just make this game easy...please.
Check out the Memphis story from our old (and good) friends at 3ShadesofBlue.com.
Enter today's Jersey Contest form here. (Don't forget the 5:00 start.)
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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if our bench shows up
it’ll be a piece of cake. Big if…
"Travis has more hops than a bunny in a brewery. He elevates so high his seat doubles as a flotation device."
-Dave
We'll just call you Dave Rice
It seems like he always forgets to include the key(s) that actually matter(s).
Unless of course he uses the patented “first one to 100 wins.” That one always works well. Except for when neither team gets to 100 of course.
You always seem to make
These fairly outlandish future teaser predictions that I wonder how you came up with, like this Cleveland pick, and then they come true. This happened earlier in the year, but I forget when. So what I’m basically trying to say is, what does your NCAA bracket look like, upset-wise? Because you seem to have a knack for picking those.
On a serious note though, I think the biggest key is getting an early lead. That’ll make them lose interest, and not play tough, keeping whatever crowd does show up out of the game, which will make it much easier to win.
if Dave is right about Cleveland I'll be impressed
picking a 13-19 road team (on the 2nd of a back-2-back no less) to beat a 28-1 home team takes some guts.
yeah
that will be very, very difficult to win. I put the odds at about 5-7%.
draft dejuan blair
by Cablinasian on Mar 16, 2009 12:09 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm With Dave...
My odds favor the Blazers…
Reason?…
Read my post on ESPN.COM, on the Blazers Hollinger Power Rankings Forum. I would love to hear all of your thoughts on this… pumpingiron25
"Here's Blake To Roy... This Is For The Win... YESSSS!!!!!!" - Marv Albert
by pumping_iron22 on Mar 16, 2009 12:23 AM PDT up reply actions
My brackets suck
I don’t know enough about the college game because I don’t follow it enough.
You want to know how this works, honestly? I have a nearly-infallible system.
First, it seems ENTIRELY like Portland to make a game against Memphis look hard but then somehow pull one out against the Cavaliers. But that’s only the entry point. The real clincher is imagining the discussion. As the Cavs enter the playoffs with homecourt advantage a commentator will announce, “The Cavaliers only lost two games at home this season, once to the Lakers and once to the Portland Trail Blazers”. Plus there will be some chucklehead in the sidebar using that as proof that the Blazers are actually the equal of L.A., or so close that it doesn’t matter, what with the extra year of experience Portland has and all.
See? That all sounds right.
That’s my system.
—Dave
Sometimes a win just feels right
I like to use the ‘gut’ system as well.
After we squeak out a win against Memphis, Nate yells at our guys and everyone feels bad for making Nate angry and they wanna do right by their coaching father figure, and come out pumped up to the MAX (I’m talking A-game here folks, 105 to 110% even), while Cleveland just happens to have a flat game for whatever reason.
Then, like you say, people start reserving tickets to the Finals until we squeak out a win against the Thunder or whatever and everyone goes back to praying for the 8th seed.
Mortimer
Looks
like you are just hoping for the most dramatic situation possible, or thats the way your “gut” feels it should be.
I'm jus' playin'
That was a good burn though. :-(
Is squeaking out a win against Memphis and then coming out strong against Cleveland THAT dramatic? That is almost a boringly predictable scenario.
You’re just trying to viciously burn me because I’ve pointed out your wrongness over a few threads. I do apologize for that, and I didn’t even realize I was responding to the same person at first. I ain’t trying to pick on you, whereas you are trying to pick on me here :-( And see, ya went in with the purpose of a burn and responded in a way that doesn’t really make sense again, similar to the defense of Nate Robinson as PG or saying the height difference between a Roy and KG is meaningless. A proper burn has a hint of truth to it; bitingly exposes a truth the writer may not realize he is doing, perhaps. Saying a prediction of us not beating Memphis as well as we should and coming out fired up against the Cavs is the most dramatic situation possible (thereby rendering my gut instinct as laughably off) is both unimaginative, and shows to me you went into your post with the intention of burnage but came wanting for a possible burn that made sense but settled for the burn you went with and rationalized it as sensical after the fact— and hoping that my gut’s need for outlandish dramatics proving my other points in other threads to be deemed incorrect as well.
I get why you don’t like me (nobody likes to be told they are wrong and then in great detail slowly explained to why they are wrong over numerous posts covering the same ground over and over), but you didn’t have to be so mean and say my gut is wrong and just yearns for Hoosiers-esque dramatics :-( That crosses the line :-(
We all know what REALLY will happen is Oden becomes a game time decision, and we see that he dresses, but they say his knee is too stiff to play. Throughout the course of the game it is a BATTLE, but we just can’t get over that Lebron-sized hump. But then, something miraculous happens— 5 minutes left in the 4th, us down 7, Oden rips off his warmups and moves to the check-in table without Nate even asking him to.
Monty goes to grab Oden to see what’s up, but Nate stops him… he’s never seen this obssessed look in Oden’s eyes before, and knows that we may never see it again. To the shock of the crowd and his own teammates, Oden checks in the game and even the hometown Ohio fans can’t help but cheer for this turn of events.
Oden proceeds to take over, quickly going 15 for 18 and scoring 43 points off of a series of alley oops, jump hooks, and spin dunks. Lebron answers back with 41 of his own, and the 4th quarter duel of the century goes down to the wire— tie game, 22 seconds left, Lebron with the ball.
Roy gets isolated on Lebron, as Lebron waits for the clock to wind down to strike. Roy forces Lebron left, and Lebron drives—! He’s funneled to LMA, but Lebron easily steps past him, raises for the shot——
ODEN comes weakside and blocks it out to halfcourt!
Blake grabs the loose ball, as the clock ticks down. We’re out of time outs and have ONE. LAST. CHANCE.
LMA streaks down court, ahead of the slower Cleveland big men. Blake comes at an angle but can’t find the seam to LMA for the flush. Then, as if with a 3rd eye, he senses a great presence rumbling down the court, trailing directly behind him. With little more than a hope and a prayer Steve throws the ball up high in the air right in front of the hoop…
Oden SOARS high from just inside the free throw line, grabs the ball with one hand, and DUNKS it in just as time expires. The dunk is so forceful he SHATTERS the stanchion, bringing the backboard down with him. The red light goes off, but as it crashes to the ground the lights EXPLODE. Oden just stands there amidst the smoldering ruins of Cleveland’s basket, pauses a moment to soak it in, and pumps his fist slightly.
The Cleveland crowd doesn’t wait for the refs to review the play. They start chanting OH-DEN, OH-DEN, OH-DEN, OH-DEN and rush the court. It takes 30 grown men to lift Oden up, and they carry him off the floor on their shoulders. They don’t even notice Lebron sitting by the scorer’s table, his face in his hands, quietly sobbing.
He goes on to leave Cleveland a few short years later after he sees he’ll never be as loved as Oden is. Lebron also never defeats the Blazers again, never able to overcome this complete and utter destruction delivered to him by Oden. Lebron goes down as one of the alltime greats, but someone who could never get over that Oden sized hump. It is an asterisk for his entire career, further accentuated by the one championship Lebron wins coming when Oden (unfortunately) strains his abdominal muscle in the Western Conference Finals, which allows the Blazers to be beat by the Seattle Grizzlies. Roy and Bayless and Batum were also hurt in that series, and the Seattle Grizz still barely manage to squeak by the decimated 7 man roster that is the Portland Trail Blazers.
Lebron’s title goes down as the flukiest, most asteriskiest championship ever, and the seeds of his failure were planted in this game.
No, you’re right, us barely beating Memphis and coming out strong against a complacent Cavs team is the most dramatic scenario possible. It’s like science fiction it’s so unplausible. I just realized that that is the plot to the 4th entry in the DUNE series by Frank Herbert, so that scenario probably was just stuck in my head subconsciously. I didn’t mean to rip it off, but it looks like (in retrospect) that I had. I apologize.
Mortimer
by Mortimer on Mar 16, 2009 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
wow, that is vintage mortimer
unfortunately, just as in the old days, i lack the attention span to read that whole thing
Yeap!...
That looks like the rough draft of my finals thesis paper… good lord!
"Here's Blake To Roy... This Is For The Win... YESSSS!!!!!!" - Marv Albert
by pumping_iron22 on Mar 16, 2009 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Need this one
Rarely do I say that, but this one is the kind you need if you want to finish top six.
The opening is there, Dallas and Utah have both been taking losses, and we can open a little gap on them. Either N.O. or Houston loses tonight, so a win will put us up to fifth.
If we don’t win this, it becomes very hard to take 2 wins out of the trip.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
I agree wholeheartedly
Losing this one would be like building an obstacle course around Mile 20 of your marathon. You could go through it, but wouldn’t it be easier to just run the race the way you’re supposed to?
—Dave
I just don't see us losing to Memphis
I don’t think that even if Mayo and Gay go off, that the rest of the team can support them all the way to a victory. I don’t think it’ll be a blowout by any means, but it’s not going to be a close one either
Blazers win!
First I would like to point out
Missing on Gasol twice was a huge mistake. He is already among the best young centers, I particularly love his passing & crafty offensive moves.
Conley is another quick PG that could give us trouble.
Hopefully Milicic doesn’t look like the #1 overall draft pick like he did against Detriot. Things get scary when Darko tries.
Find our Championship PG
Boris Diaw?
Draft:
Terrence Williams
I know
I just hope there is no carry over :)
i'm a little unhappy with the lack of ball movement
it’s true that brandon has delivered some passes that have been fumbled away (joel) or otherwise wasted, but lately he has seemed much more intent than usual in winning the games all by himself. small sample size, and this comes after he was under the weather and not himself, but i’m uneasy when he’s scoring 30 and we only have 3 or (barely) 4 players in double-figures. and the assist numbers were way way down.
well, we’ll see if it’s a negative trend. rudy has just returned. he should be better this 2nd game. blake should snap out of it somewhat. one of the backup pgs has got to come out of his funk.
ignacio
PG's
Not sure if Blake is going to be able to stay with Conley. Especially because of how quick he can drive or dish with that left hand.
Second unit stopped moving all together
Frye can’t set picks like Joel? Rudy was still not fully back last game? Not sure what it is, but watch they, nobody is moving and nobody is setting picks. Please let this change.
When Blake Cuts To The Basket
Its like watching syrup drip of the side of pancakes. I am not talking that home made runny syrup either. I am talking 1990’s Mrs Buttersworth. You know “Now with 50% more high fructose corn syrup !”
Everyone can call me crazy
But I’d really like Darko as our backup PF/C. He rebounds, blocks shots, plays tough defense, doesn’t back down from anyone, and is a good athlete for his size. His offense goes from decent to God-awful ugly still, but that’s not why I’d like him.
He’d be cheap, I don’t think he feels like he should start, and he’s young.
I don’t think he’s anything more than a role playing big man, but if he wasn’t taken so highly he wouldn’t be deemed such a bust. I foresee a Joel Przybilla, but more erratic because of his anger problems, type career once he sticks somewhere. Joel was once a lottery bust as well, but once he was seen as a good role player his world opened up once more.
If you’re expecting an elite lottery pick, Darko is obviously not that. If you’re expecting and wanting a tough, rebounding, shot blocking, limited 7 foot role player non-stiff, then you’d be happy.
CALL ME CRAZY, I DON’T CARE. He’d be such a better option than Frye, and give us even more depth on the frontline (and everyone gets injured there every year).
Mortimer
He is a Jermaine O'Neal-type player
With a worse mid-range game and less polished offensive moves (in O’Neal’s prime). Concerning his contract, I’m not sure Darko will stay in the NBA when his contract is up in 2010. It’s not guaranteed another team will give him $7+ million per season again on a multi-year deal, and back in Europe he could be a major star on a top team with much more of the offense going through him.
Little side note: The Wolves hope Nikolas Pekovic could become their center of the future when he comes over in a year or so. That guy looks like a poor man’s Darko, since he is just 6 months younger and has yet to be the undoubted #1 on his own team back in Greece where he has great point guards to feed him the ball down low where he needs it.
Yeah, I remember the Wolves blog mention him
I don’t get why they seem to ASSUME Pekovic will come in and not only be a starter, but be good even. It’s shakey enough to expect any Euro big man’s success to translate, let alone one who hasn’t been very successful yet. That’s how we get Darko’s and other Euro stiffs taken too high making everyone hate Euro big men.
I ain’t a Pekovic expert, but from footage and stats perusal he seems pretty ordinary, in a bad way.
Morty
Darko
Its the inconsistency. He is awkward in the locker rooms & I am pretty sure he plans to return to Europe, to play ball over there. He is more consistent then Frye defensively & on the boards though. He is owed 14.5 million over two years, not sure that would be worth it for just a rental. Why not find a young center to develop behind Joel & Greg to be our #2 when Joel is gone(whenever that may be)?
You're probably right
Darko is young though, and part of why I imagine someone like him could be that #2 center after Joel’s career winds down.
It doesn’t have to be Darko, but I really wouldn’t mind a 3rd string center/2nd string PF who gets the MLE or slightly above, since big men always get hurt and it would be a HUGE luxury to have a serviceable big man ready to play 15 minutes a night or more should we need it.
Of course, the trick is finding someone who is good enough for that, but also okay with playing the small minutes. Since Darko hasn’t carved out a niche yet or earned anything close to being a starter, but will undoubtedly make more in the NBA as a 7 footer than as an unskilled Euro 7 footer in Europe, I imagine he might stay in the NBA since it better suits him.
I could see him being annoying in the locker room, like you say. He seems like a prickly jerk, but I won’t mind that on the court.
Morty
How much
Would Marc Gasol cost us :)
My Mortimer's not crazy, he's a genius!
Once Greg is healthy, why would we need Darko? I’d rather have Channing’s shooting skill, and he’s cheap, too.
by MiledAnimal on Mar 16, 2009 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions
This pertains to not just Darko, but any 3rd string center slash 2nd string PF
Big men always get hurt, and if it ain’t Oden hurt, it could be Joel— and having a decent 3rd string center who can rebound and play defense would be another huge luxury.
Oden will have a stretch where he is perfectly healthy and all is well, but Joel WILL go down sometime. It’s just how centers are. If Frye has to back up Oden, we’re back to the same problems rebounding as we have when Joel is out.
I like Frye the person much better than Darko, or some other random backup big man I’m sure, but I’d rather have strong defense and consistent rebounding in our 2nd string PF and 3rd string center over a shakey mid range jumper.
Morty
Same situation
At guard, when Roy or Rudy are out. No PG’s are capable yet.
Rice should make a bet with Travis that if Darius gets more points or rebounds Travis has to GROW his hair until after the playoffs
Then double or nothing for the Cavs game for Ricey’s faux hawk.
Not that this will help the Mavs any
But good luck to you guys tonight :)
'Cause I'm a high plains drifter, the best that you can get
A strapped shoplifter, a pirate on cassette
Thanks :)
Elizabeth had a partner and he had a rap from the cops, Him and Lenny Suckerpunch were just out Tooling around
by Lizzy Lowblow on Mar 16, 2009 7:13 AM PDT up reply actions
and a Beastie Boys fan
I like. And hi Lizzy.
by Lenny Suckerpunch on Mar 16, 2009 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions
As soon as I posted that, it looked funny.
That should be read “a Beastie Boys fan. I like [it].”
Not “a beastie boys fan I like.”
by Lenny Suckerpunch on Mar 16, 2009 8:40 AM PDT up reply actions
hehe 8^)
Elizabeth had a partner and he had a rap from the cops, Him and Lenny Suckerpunch were just out Tooling around
by Lizzy Lowblow on Mar 16, 2009 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions
What's the word on Oden?
I know he is traveling with the team, but is he close to getting back on the court yet?
"So long Noc, we hardly knew ya."
Close
But we have heard that before. He is looking better, but not good enough yet.
Are you the real Khalid El-Amin? If so, why are you on the BlazersEdge? Are you a Blazers fan?
If you are KEA, you were awesome @ UCONN. If not, dont play with my emotions.
Hi fans it Brandon Roy.
And ME.....LaMarcus Aldridge
Dont play Rodriguez
Can we officially start questioning why Nate is playing Sergio…..ever?
The guy is just awful. The only time he looks good is against the worst backup PG’s in the league. Bayless looks bad too. I dont know what to do, maybe run Rudy at PG.
Oden needs to get back. This has been ridiculous
Hi fans it Brandon Roy.
And ME.....LaMarcus Aldridge
We can't use Rudy at PG
Nate tried that last game and brought Sergio in after 1 possession of their trap.
Sergio and Bayless both went to crap when they started playing with Frye. This is no coincidence.
Sergio
Has a better PER then Bayless.
The Good News
Is that it looks like we are a lock for the playoffs. And going to a playoff game at the RG and seeing B Roy do his thing ‘post-season style’ would be epic.
But like all fans, I am greedy and woould love to see Portland finish in the middle of the pack so we have a chance against somebody like New Orleans, Denver, or Houston.
please, please, please beat the Grizz tonight.
Hi fans it Brandon Roy.
And ME.....LaMarcus Aldridge
I think it would be a good idea to win this game
just a thought.
I Blazersedge daily, nightly and ever so rightly.
Maybe you could have another birthday today
Just a thought…
If you can't laugh at yourself, everyone else probably is already.
women don't really like to have birthdays.
Blazers win BDL 2 on 2 tournament!
Skeets: i’ll close it down now … congrats. you bastards
quick everyone. Sing happy birthday to me and light some candles!
I Blazersedge daily, nightly and ever so rightly.
lucky for you, I don't carry a loaded gun
messes up my outfit.
I Blazersedge daily, nightly and ever so rightly.
I like the kind of outfits
that concealed weapons can’t be concealed with, if you get my meaning . . . – Elgin
Blazers win BDL 2 on 2 tournament!
Skeets: i’ll close it down now … congrats. you bastards
well, yeah.
Blazers win BDL 2 on 2 tournament!
Skeets: i’ll close it down now … congrats. you bastards
Bench
I agree with Dave’s point #6, and would probably elevate it to #1 in terms of importance – maybe for each road game. Actually, to be more precise – I think we need a player other than Roy or LA to step up and produce. Roy and LA will get their share of points and overall production. But if they are the only productive players (like vs. Atlanta) then we lose against nearly anyone. When 1 or 2 guys step up in addition to Roy and LA (like, Batum vs. NJ, for instance), we are hard to beat.
I do think the Blazers will win tonight, so who will the step-up guy be? I am thinking it has to be Super Trout, though I have a weird feeling that Bayless is going to do some things tonight. We’ll see.
I hope you're right
I really, really do!
If you can't laugh at yourself, everyone else probably is already.
I have a deep sense of foreboding about this one
The ghost of miles is here….he’s going to block us like….uhhh….like Nic Batum blocking fools.
Only Darius won’t look as hott.
darius couldn"t look as hot as nic in his wildest dreams...
he also couldn’t pull off a spectacular break away block like nic in his wildest dreams
I Blazersedge daily, nightly and ever so rightly.
Batum on Mayo or Gay?...
I’m interested to see how Nate matches Nic up against their two primary threats.
If you can't laugh at yourself, everyone else probably is already.
I think yes.
Batum will be guarding one of them. He is quick and bothers most shooters. He may even switch between the two like he did for a brief portion of the NJ game when he switched to Harris from carter then went back to guarding carter.
I Blazersedge daily, nightly and ever so rightly.
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