Projections Update -- Games of 3/14

by jscot on Mar 15, 2009 12:00 AM PDT

Projection explanation in my Sched Ahead Threads.

Latest updates below. No time for write-ups, summaries. Will try to add projections to this post tomorrow, too.

Projections

1	L.A.	65.9
2	S.A.	55.9
3	Denver	52.7
4	N.O.	51.9
5	Portland	51.5
6	Houston	51.1
7	Utah	48.7
8	Dallas	48.3
9	Phoenix	43.6

We're getting some help around the league, but if we want a high seed, we're going to have to take it, and that means get some wins on this road trip. Two wins probably locks down a top 7 spot, three probably locks down top 6 and keeps us in the thick of it for top 4, and four probably makes us favorites for the NW division.

The race for the second seed looks over. The Spurs have maintained a solid lead even with Manu out, and he is likely to be back before long.

Those who didn't believe me when I said Utah's tough finishing schedule would take a toll may have to eat their words. I still think they get 50, but it won't be easy and they aren't going to win 53 or 54. You should never predict division winners without looking at the difficulty of the remaining schedule. Denver is still the favorite in the NW at this point.

Utah is likely to lose their third straight today -- if there is anything harder than a back to back at a top 5 team, it is a back to back after a 3 OT game chasing D Wade all over the court. The interesting question will be how they react. When you go on a long winning streak to climb out of the depths, and then get zapped with three straight tough losses to put you back in a hole, and you look and see you have the toughest schedule left among the contenders, it can be really discouraging.

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Comments

Now weren't you high on Utah for a little bit???

Superman wears Tyler Hansbrough underwear. - JTDuck22

by maid tu rek on Mar 15, 2009 12:04 AM PDT reply actions

not that I remember

jscot has said they will be around 50 wins for a while now.

draft dejuan blair

by Cablinasian on Mar 15, 2009 12:06 AM PDT up reply actions

Correct

Very dangerous team, going to win more than the projection, but not going to win the division. Too many games left like the ones they had this week.

In fact, back around 30-40 games, when someone did a poll of which team might miss the playoffs, I said the Jazz. I was wrong on that, I thought Phoenix would gel better than they did, and of course, no one knew Amare would go down. If he were healthy, Phoenix would have at least 2-3 more wins, and Utah would be feeling pretty uncomfortable about their remaining schedule.

They could still end up the eighth seed, and the L@kers might have to face a healthy Jazz team in the first round. There would be no justice in that, but if anyone has to face injustice, it is only just that it be the L@kers.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 15, 2009 12:13 AM PDT up reply actions

What is this Utah you speak of?

And how precisely can I get high off of it? Do you smoke it? Inhale it? Inject it?

by prezofdeath on Mar 15, 2009 12:17 AM PDT up reply actions

the only thing J-skeezy is high on is life

and Excel.

But Excel may have been high on Utah for a while

by tominrehab on Mar 15, 2009 12:18 AM PDT up reply actions

Going and taking is a good point

We have a decent chance at taking the division, but we’re going to have to play like division champs to get it; no freebies.

Unfortunately for Utah, this doesn’t really seem to be the case. They have to play out of their minds to get a chance to win the division.

by northwestj on Mar 15, 2009 12:58 AM PDT reply actions

Your projections are the best projection material I´ve ever seen.

Sergio + Rudy = 16
Sergio + Bayless = 16
Batum 8+8=16

by amlmart1 on Mar 15, 2009 4:16 AM PDT reply actions

If you like those projections, you should check out a Epson PowerLite Home Cinema 1080

It’s projections are in HD

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by tominhawaii on Mar 15, 2009 6:04 AM PDT up reply actions

We'll see at the end of the year....

I think Utah is still projecting low by a game or two, Denver is low by a game or two, Phoenix too low (unless they completely fold up because they are out of the race). Dallas might be projecting a little bit high.

Sometime this summer, I hope to run graphs showing projection movement and comparing to where we ended up.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 15, 2009 7:28 AM PDT up reply actions

i don't predict anything because in my case this is bad juju

and it’s better that i remain in, as sextus empiricus advised, a state of “mental suspense”

but yes, your non-emotive looks into trends have been (for me) one of the best features of this site. doubleplusgood

ignacio

by ignacio on Mar 15, 2009 5:47 AM PDT reply actions

Non-emotive?

I think I threatened some people with banishing them to be OKC fans.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 15, 2009 7:29 AM PDT up reply actions

I've at least become comfortable...

in the last week or so that Phoenix is the 9th seed. Whatever happened to their 140 point outbursts following the coaching change. Ahhh…fool’s gold.

So who has slumped and who hasn’t? The mid-season slump is inevitable…contractually obligated even? Utah certainly had a slumpy few weeks. Denver’s struggles since around the break are sort of a lingering slump. We don’t have a stretch you could really define as a slump, unless you wan’t to say barely winning is slumpish. If you are Boston and lose 4 straight, that gets to be your slump. If you are the Clippers, you don’t even bother to look for your slump, because there is nothing to gain and the whole process would be disgusting. Like looking for corn in your stool.

Anyhow, I’m keeping my fingers crossed that this road trip isn’t our mid-late season slumperific slide towards the 8th seed. I suppose in just saying so I’ve now ratcheted up my expectations towards something higher than 8th.

I need another cup of coffee.

The cowards never started
The weak died along the way
Only the strong survived
They were the Trailblazers

by lukeyhere on Mar 15, 2009 6:42 AM PDT reply actions

“Whatever happened to their 140 point outbursts following the coaching change. Ahhh…fool’s gold.”

Not fool’s gold, just the Clippers and the Thunder.

My HDTV is a torrented game that I can watch lag-free :(

Let LaMarcus keep the headband!

by inroywetrust on Mar 15, 2009 7:08 AM PDT up reply actions

We had our slump

It lasted for about three minutes in Portland when our starting PG was shooting free throws back on the 12th of December. That was our slump.

Actually, that concluded our only 3 game losing streak of the year. The only time we have lost three in a row, one loss came on a miracle shot by Hedo to one of the best road teams in the league, and another was on freak FT misses. Beyond that, we’ve only had four 2 game losing streaks:
@Phoenix, @Utah (11/1, 11/5) — very tough road games, Greg was out
N.O., @L.A. (1/2, 1/4) — Brandon was out
@Dallas, @OKC (2/4, 2/6) — Steve was out
@Houston, @S.A. (2/24, 2/25) — brutal back to back, Greg was out

Amazing consistency for a young team. Simply amazing. Other than that one bad spell in December of three losses, two of which probably aren’t repeatable, our worst run has been two straight losses, and in every case where that happened, we had a starter out.

You expect young teams to hit a bad patch where they lose four or five in a row. This team never has. Even the consecutive losses have all been separated by at least two weeks, unlike Denver, who lost three, then won two, then lost two, won one, and then lost three again. We just haven’t done anything remotely like that.

We won’t on this trip, either. We’ll get at least one of Memphis/Indiana, perhaps both, and we’ll get Milwaukie. Good chance to get Atlanta, too — our injuries are more substantive than their loss of Marvin Williams, but thanks to our depth, we still have good players to put on the floor. It is still winnable, if very tough.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 15, 2009 7:43 AM PDT up reply actions

we got some big time help

last night, Utah, the Hornets, and Rockets all lost. My perdictions are coming true so far, and if the Blazers can pull off a 4 -1 road trip they will be sitting pretty in the NW lead drivers seat.

by usmcr3049 on Mar 15, 2009 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions

Just updated my predictions to go with the results from yesterday

I also decided to go through the end of the season, based on all playoff caliber teams winning their remaining home games, obviously some will not win them all, but I believe 99% of these type of games will be won by the home team. With that said, if that played out this would be the records for 3-8 in the west

3. Portland 54-28 (they have tie breaker over NO)
4. New Orleans 54-28
5. Denver 53-29
6. Houston 52-30
7. Dallas 52-30
8. Utah 49-33

If that plays out it would make for some good 1st round matchups.
Lakers vs Utah being awsome
Spurs vs Mavs
Blazers vs Rockets, Ouch I don’t see the Blazers winning that series
Hornets vs Nuggets, another 1st round exit by the nuggets.

by usmcr3049 on Mar 15, 2009 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions

i don't like it at all when these teams can't decide if they're blue or they're red

atlanta was red for 20 years, now they’re dark blue. houston was blue (ugly uniforms too) for a couple of years; they’re back to (much more attractive) red.

cleveland has been blue, red, marigold yellow……they’re best wearing red.

dallas has been a very ugly road black & blue for a few years. really they might be the ugliest road unis in the league.

ignacio

by ignacio on Mar 15, 2009 9:56 AM PDT reply actions