The debate between the Eastern and Western Conferences and their dominance couldn't really even be called a debate over the past few seasons. Dating back to the fateful WCF between the Blazers and L*kers, everyone was saying that this matchup was the real Finals. The winner just had to go through the formality of playing Indiana or whatever team had won the East that year. Despite blips on the radar, such as trophies in Detroit and Boston, the Western Conference as a whole seemed to be much more difficult of a conference to play in, even if the end result didn't necessarily mean it would produce the best team in the NBA.
This all seems to have changed this year. Not only are Boston, Cleveland, and Orlando beating teams across the continent, but the NBA's worst teams tend to be from the Western Conference (LA Clippers, Memphis, Sacramento). But even with those solid facts, the Western Conference playoff race is in full swing, and from the 2-9 seeds, there is a marginal difference. Phoenix, the 9th team based on winning percentage, would be 6th seed in the East.
Does the strength of the Western Conference's teams that are in, say, the top 1/3rd outweigh the fact that of the bottom eight teams in the league, six of them are from the Western Conference? Does that fact that the 5th - 11th best teams in the league are from the Western Conference outweigh the fact that three of the top four teams in the league are from the East?
Using numbers from ESPN's website on the morning of March 14th, I listed each team and ranked them by winning percentage. Each position was weighted, so that the first place team would get 30 'ranking points' (RP) and the 30th place team would get 1 'ranking point.' Here's how it broke down (sorry for the format, could someone please let me know how to put spreadsheets in a fanpost in the comments, thanks):
By League:
Rank Team WIN % Ranking Points
1 Cleveland 0.800 30
1 LA L*kers 0.800 30
3 Boston 0.758 28
4 Orlando 0.738 27
5 San Antonio 0.677 26
6 Houston 0.632 25
7 Portland 0.631 24
7 New Orleans 0.631 24
9 Denver 0.627 22
10 Utah 0.621 21
11 Dallas 0.606 20
12 Atlanta 0.576 19
13 Miami 0.554 18
14 Phoenix 0.530 17
15 Detroit 0.516 16
16 Philadelphia 0.508 15
17 Chicago 0.448 14
18 Milwaukee 0.441 13
19 New Jersey 0.431 12
19 New York 0.431 12
21 Charlotte 0.424 10
22 Indiana 0.418 9
23 Golden State 0.354 8
24 Toronto 0.348 7
25 Minnesota 0.303 6
26 Oklahoma City 0.273 5
27 Memphis 0.250 4
28 LA Clippers 0.231 3
29 Washington 0.227 2
30 Sacramento 0.215 1
Total Ranking Points 468
Eastern Conference:
Rank Team Ranking Points
1 Cleveland 30
3 Boston 28
4 Orlando 27
12 Atlanta 19
13 Miami 18
15 Detroit 16
16 Philadelphia 15
17 Chicago 14
18 Milwaukee 13
19 New Jersey 12
19 New York 12
21 Charlotte 10
22 Indiana 9
24 Toronto 7
29 Washington 2
Total Ranking Points: 232
Western Conference:
Rank Team Ranking Points
1 LA L*kers 30
5 San Antonio 26
6 Houston 25
7 Portland 24
7 New Orleans 24
9 Denver 22
10 Utah 21
11 Dallas 20
14 Phoenix 17
23 Golden State 8
25 Minnesota 6
26 Oklahoma City 5
27 Memphis 4
28 LA Clippers 3
30 Sacramento 1
Total Ranking Points: 236
I look at the total Ranking Points (RP) of each conference in a couple of ways.
First, the average RP of the East is 15.47. The West's RP average out to be 15.73. Not much a difference at all. The West is only slightly above the league average, and the East is only slightly below.
Second, and more importantly, the difference between the East and West TRP is only about one percent (0.008).
RP % AVG
EAST 232 49.57% 15.47
WEST 236 50.43% 15.73
NBA 468 100% 15.6
The East and West seem to be in a dead heat this year. The fact that of the bottom six teams, five are in the West seems to cancel out any advantage that the West as 7 teams with RP in the 20s, compared to just 2 for the East.
But I wasn't sure how typical this was, so I checked out that fateful year that the L*kers stole my dignity and squeaked their way into the NBA Finals like stinky little rats. From the 1999-2000 Season:
NBA
Rank Team Ranking Points
1 LA L*kers (0) 29
2 Portland (0) 28
3 Indiana (0) 27
4 Utah (0) 26
5 Phoenix (0) 25
6 San Antonio (0) 24
7 Miami (0) 23
8 Minnesota (0) 22
9 New York (0) 21
10 Philadelphia (0) 20
11 Charlotte (0) 19
12 Toronto (0) 18
13 Sacramento (0) 17
14 Seattle (0) 16
15 Detroit (0) 15
16 Milwaukee (0) 14
17 Orlando (0) 13
18 Dallas (0) 12
19 Houston (0) 11
19 Denver (0) 11
19 Boston (0) 11
22 New Jersey (0) 8
22 Cleveland (0) 8
24 Washington (0) 6
25 Atlanta (0) 5
26 Vancouver (0) 4
27 Golden State (0) 3
28 Chicago (0) 2
29 LA Clippers (0) 1
Total 439
EAST
Rank Team RP
3 Indiana 27
7 Miami 23
9 New York 21
10 Philadelphia 20
11 Charlotte 19
12 Toronto 18
15 Detroit 15
16 Milwaukee 14
17 Orlando 13
19 Boston 11
22 New Jersey 8
22 Cleveland 8
24 Washington 6
25 Atlanta 5
28 Chicago 2
Total 210
WEST
Rank Team RP
1 LA L*kers 29
2 Portland 28
4 Utah 26
5 Phoenix 25
6 San Antonio 24
8 Minnesota 22
13 Sacramento 17
14 Seattle 16
18 Dallas 12
19 Houston 11
19 Denver 11
26 Vancouver 4
27 Golden State 3
29 LA Clippers 1
Total 229
RP % AVG
East 210 48% 14.00
West 229 52% 16.36
NBA 439 100% 15.14
These numbers show that the West was much better than the East compared to this season. 4% isn't that much, but compared to the 1% difference this year, it seems significant.
And, for those of you paying extra-special attention, you've noticed that the aforementioned team from Charlotte were still known as the Hornets, rather than the Bobcats, leaving the Western Conference without a team from the Big Easy. This means that the West was better with fewer teams. The only way I could think of to make up for this would be to add an additional team to the Western Conference and give it the average RP. The new numbers would be:
RP % AVG
East 210 46% 14
West 245 54% 16
NBA 455 100% 15
For good measure, let's put this year's number back up.
RP % AVG
EAST 232 49.57% 15.47
WEST 236 50.43% 15.73
NBA 468 100% 15.6
Just like I thought.
Subjectively, the West used to be THE dominant Conference, and there were few who would dispute this notion. This year the rise of quality teams in the East, combined with the amount of cellar-dwellers in the West (how miserable are the Clippers. poor fans) has evened out the rivalry quite a bit. Statistically, this seems to be backed up, too, when comparing a year that the West was crushin' it, to now, when the better conference doesn't seem to be so apparent.
Note: This is my first go at any stat analysis. I'm not sure if my methods are faulty or not. Statisticians, holler at your boy.
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