Hypothetical Tie-Breaker Scenario

by LeafHawk on Mar 12, 2009 3:37 PM PDT

The race for playoff seeding in the Western Conference is extremely close. Closer than its been in quite some time. One of the things I like to look at on ESPN.com is Hollinger's Playoff Odds. The percentages and projections are fun for impatient people such as myself. Here's the way they're looking right now:

Hollinger Playoff Odds

If you look at the projected records, it shows that five teams (Denver, Utah, Houston, New Orleans and Portland) are projected to finish with a 51-31 record each. A FIVE-WAY tie for third!!! I can imagine the team that finishes 7th in this case feels pretty cheated. So how would this tie be broken??? Well, I did a bit of research and here's what I found:

(Note, this is all based on current tiebreaker statuses, and could change as the rest of the season unfolds. This is just for fun.)

First, the division champions have to be determined. Right now, Utah has the lead in the NW Division, so we'll keep them as such for the purposes of this.

Next, the best record amongst games between the five teams must be calculated. Currently, the ranking for that goes as follows:

Utah: 7-4

Denver: 5-8

Houston: 7-3

New Orleans:5-6

Portland: 5-7

So, based upon those projections with the tiebreaks listed above, here's how the final standings would look:

1. LA Lakers

2. San Antonio

3. Houston

4. Utah

5. New Orleans

6. Portland

7. Denver

8. Dallas

That would set us up for a series with Houston. Having Greg would be very nice for that.

So, that's that. It's not going to be accurate in two days, let alone two months. But it still shows a bit more about just how close this race could get.

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nice work

"It's not who jumps the highest -- it's who wants it the most" Buck Williams

"and if EVERYONE confronted with a tough, disgusting situation pulled out, I don't think I would have been born." Mortimer

by Fund A Mental on Mar 12, 2009 3:52 PM PDT reply actions

interesting

It just shows how big every game is. 1 game could make the difference between 3rd and 7th. That’s why games like the Dallas loss (which is almost like 2 games since its a team we are fighting with) are so crucial.

by jksnake99 on Mar 12, 2009 4:28 PM PDT reply actions

good stuff leafhawk

Want more aggressiveness? Try less Baylesslessness.

by prezofdeath on Mar 12, 2009 4:45 PM PDT reply actions

I've been running all this stuff through my head

also for days, and it gives me head aches! Suffice to say it’s going to all come down to the last week, and maybe even our last game (Denver at home).

There is probably no more terrible instance of enlightenment than the one in which you discover your father is a man — with human flesh.
Paul Muad'Dib - Dune (Frank Herbert)

My Translation: My Dad is a dude just like me, and my sons are dudes like me also. I love that.
Season Tix: Section 315, with my sons

by johnv59 on Mar 12, 2009 5:32 PM PDT reply actions

Flaw in your final standings

The division winners automatically get the 1-3 seeds. So, it would probably be Utah #3 and Houston #4.

Utah… without home court. Ugh!

Otherwise, nice work.

by CheeseMonkey42 on Mar 13, 2009 12:00 PM PDT reply actions

That USED to be how it works.

David Stern recently changed the rule. The division winners all must have home court advantage, but if a team from another division has a better record, they can be placed 3rd instead of the 3rd division winner. Hence, Utah is 4th. However, no matter how bad the record of the 3rd best division winner gets, since they must have home court in the first round, they can be seeded no lower than 4th.

Thanks for the response!

Yes! Yes! In the face!

by LeafHawk on Mar 13, 2009 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions

Are you sure they get home court?

I know they’re guaranteed a top 4 seeding, so I agree there, but I thought that they did not get home court if the lower seed has a better record…

by bamkapow on Mar 13, 2009 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions

I think you might be right about that.

I think if the 5 seed has a higher record than Utah, they would get home court. But regardless, the winner of the NW division can have no lower a seed than 4th.

Yes! Yes! In the face!

by LeafHawk on Mar 13, 2009 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions

Oh

I didn’t know Mr. Stern recently changed that rule.

Do not want to play the Utah Jizz without home court. Even though we did beat em once when they did.

Thanks

by CheeseMonkey42 on Mar 13, 2009 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions

I'd just as soon avoid them entirely if possible.

I feel that teams like Houston and New Orleans are far more beatable because they simply don’t have the right kind of teams to beat Portland. Houston is deep, but they don’t have any dynamic scorers without McGrady. They are prone to streaky play, which could be their downfall in the playoffs. New Orleans has CP3, Chandler and West. So they have some very good front end talent, with players who can do just about everything. However, even with the rotation being shortened in the playoffs, the Hornets still don’t quite have the depth you need to go deep in the playoffs.

Yes! Yes! In the face!

by LeafHawk on Mar 13, 2009 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions

Is Mutombo playing this season?

Because I am a little scared what he could do to Joel on the boards.

Stay Healthy.
Sign Nate Robinson RFA
Win Championship !

by Air Norv on Mar 13, 2009 12:07 PM PDT reply actions

Mutombo is getting splinters in his butt

in Houston. When Yao comes out of the game, Mutombo still sits while Scola and Landry (among others) are their bigs. – Elgin

Blazers win BDL 2 on 2 tournament!
Skeets: i’ll close it down now … congrats. you bastards

by 22baylor on Mar 13, 2009 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions

The thing is

4 of those 5 teams are going to play each other no matter what. The only thing on the line is home court advantage (which is not to be ignored, but still). I’ve thought about this to a lesser degree with a Divisional tie resulting in a 4/5 matchup between us and the nugs/jazz.

Things happen for a reason they say, but I say there's a reason things happen.

by sixth on Mar 13, 2009 2:37 PM PDT reply actions