Glidepath to the Northwest Division Title

by LaoTzu on Mar 10, 2009 1:13 AM PDT

Blazers Win! Blazers Win!

Tell 'em what them won, Lao.

They won a glidepath to the Northwest Division Championship and home court in Round 1 of the NBA Playoffs.

It works like this -- current standings:

Utah4	40	23	0.635	10.0	28-11	9-3	28-6	12-17	10-0	W 11
Portland5	40	23	0.635	10.0	21-18	7-5	27-5	13-18	7-3	W 2

Denver7	40	25	0.615	11.0	24-14	8-3	23-8	17-17	3-7	L 3

Utah has us on tiebreaks and is on an 11-game win streak. But they have an incredibly brutal schedule left, with 5 more road than home games, mostly against playoff teams. And their home games don't offer them a lot of rest either. Looking at their schedule, I predict they go 8-11 the rest of the way. But let's say with Deron Williams they exceed expectations and finish 10-9. That's still only 50-32.

Denver has more of a creampuff schedule with 3 more home games than road games. But they have been losing lately, with 3 wins in their last ten and 3 straight losses (including losing to the Kings, a team the Blazers can spot 20 anywhere on earth -- maybe it's all those threes). And they trail the Blazers by two in the pivotal loss column. I predict 11-6, but could see 12-5. That still leaves the Nuggets at 52-30.

Portland has many of its key games down the stretch at home. This includes games against Denver and Utah. Seeing how we've handled business lately at the RG, especially against the best, if the Blazers continue on anywhere near the same pace, we are looking at 14-5 down the stretch. Call me a homer. Okay, 13-6. Still, that is 53-29.

The Trailblazers have worked hard night in and night out to put the team in this position. Hopefully, we can capitalize with a Division title and guaranteed home court in at least the first round. This team is in position to define it's own destiny.

Get healthy, Blazers. This could be a looong season!

Tweet Comment 7 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

/s/ HOMER! /s/

i love your spirit.

GO BLAZERS!

i'm ready to graduate now.

kthx.

by hossticles on Mar 10, 2009 1:26 AM PDT reply actions

GOOOOOOO PORTLAND!!!

BEAT L.A. BEAT L.A!!!! lol… that was a fun game ;) I enjoyed it as much as I did razzling the laker fans on justin.tv ;) ( oh cummon, they’re laker fanz they deserve it )

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.

by faith on Mar 10, 2009 1:27 AM PDT reply actions

A journey of a thousand miles, begins with a single step.

Uhhh, I guess you said that

"The match in Los Angeles is a good opportunity to begin to demonstrate that we want to make war." Rudy Fernández (translated)

by G_dubs on Mar 10, 2009 1:32 AM PDT reply actions

I think you're close

But my instinct tells me Denver will be closer to 13-4 than 12-5, while I think Portland is going to be right in that 12-13 range… point is, it’s so close, that if one decided to lean either towards one more win for Denver or one fewer win for Portland, then Denver wins the Division.

You raise good points though—Denver has stuggled massively lately, even including our game against them, and they have dropped games left and right which they should have won.

Plus, I think the defense this team has shown against SA and the Lakers shows they can play exceptional defense, and a win like tonight could wind up being formative for this young team, and we could very well go for 13+ wins. I would be instinctively against saying we would go undefeated at home the rest of the way (I am guessing 7-2) but, honestly, we could.

If we win 7 or 8 of our 9 remaining home games, and can manage 3 or more wins in our upcoming 5 game trip, we have a pretty good chance at the division title.

by TimG on Mar 10, 2009 2:23 AM PDT reply actions

I don't see us dropping two home games

Dallas comes in on a back to back (in Phoenix the night before). So does Phoenix, Utah, Philly, and L.A. That leaves Denver as the only winning team coming in which isn’t on a back to back. We might drop that game, and we might drop the L.A. game, but we should be favored in both of them, so we aren’t very likely to lose them both. I lean towards 8-1, but 9-0 would be no surprise.

We are a very good home team. Our losses came on a fluke 3 pointer to one of the best road teams in the league, a fluke on Blake missed free throws on a back to back at the end of a brutal road trip, a game where Brandon was out, a game where Blake was out against a dominant Cleveland team, and a Christmas day loss to Dallas. It’s not like we blow very many home games, and we beat a lot of good teams, and some of them soundly.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Mar 10, 2009 4:31 AM PDT up reply actions

True, definitely

But I’m worried about that Laker game, I have no idea what the emotions are going to be like, and other than that, I’m not worried about the good teams, I’m worried that, sooner or later, an Indiana or a Minnesota is going to hit one of those lucky threes. I figure that beating the best team in the league once at home is pretty good for this team, and while they could win the next one too, I don’t want to assume that, so being safe, I’m counting that as a loss, and I see a loss somewhere else along the way.

Unless they come out like they did against SA and LA every night, then they wont drop any games they should win—but they have not done that consistently, and it could very well hurt them, so I’m allowing for it to. I’m hoping last night is the kind of game that galvanizes the team so that they bring that intensity every night here on out, and if that happens, watch out, because anything is possible.

by TimG on Mar 10, 2009 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions