Z-Score: Mark Cuban reveals stats system that will create controversy
by Norsktroll on Feb 9, 2009 9:50 PM PST
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PrintOn his blog, Mavericks owner Mark Cuban has published a post "All Stars by the Numbers" that will probably create a lot of discussion. Let's just say the results are "interesting" to say the least, since despite LeBron being on top and basically in a league of his own the names are not in the usual order you would expect. And some names you wouldn't expect at all.
Cuban doesn't completely explain how the Mavs - who have long been known to rely heavily on quantitative analysis under his ownership - came up with this system over what he claims have been eight years of work (!), only that "at its most basic its a plus minus system" with a ton of advanced factors. Interesting: It seems to incorporate the quality of the lineup the other team uses, which most statistics don't.
One more point, these numbers don’t reflect necessarily the best players in the league, but what they do reflect is the players that are being best put in a position to succeed and are delivering.
Only Blazer in the top 30: LaMarcus at #20.
But we meet another old acquaintance: Sebastian Telfair. And even in the top 10, the man traded for Brandon: Randy Foye. Mhm, why don't the Timberwolves win more?
It's a pretty wild mix of players that rank high in this system, from smalls and bigs to stars and complete role players. Some fans, teams, players (and their agents) will love the results, others will dispute them as nonsense. Like I said, this will create some discussions...
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Since they dont give much info
and I am assuming they took these numbers into consideration when firing Avery Johnson and trading for Kidd, that it is in fact far from perfect.
Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.
TrueHoop discussed this today
Apparently its a close cousin of Basketball Value’s adjusted plus-minus (with some adjustments), which is a metric I regard with a great deal of suspicion.
True Hoop Link
Basketball Value Link
Boomshakalaka
This ends up being
an evaluation of coaching rather than of players. Notice Bonner, Odom, Millsap, Okur. All role players on well coached teams.
I have no idea about Foye and Telfair.
its gotta be some sort of "terrible backup effect"
I know these adjusted plus minus stats are supposed to remove that effect but I don’t buy it. Same goes for LMA.
Boomshakalaka
That helps explain Kidd's high ranking
He’s never had a legitimate backup. Same with Okur and Millsap. Jarron Collins and Kosta Koufos anyone?
Yep
No matter how one adjusts for the quality of the opponent and other players on the floor, the measure for the effect of player is always relative to his replacement. Has to be.
In fact, that's one of the advantages of traditional box scores...
Which is why I like the combination of PER differentials and adjusted plus/minus. That’s still not perfect, but it gets about as close as you are going to get .
Now, you might try to readjust for the PER differential of a player’s replacement, but I don’t see how you scale that.
Bonner looks like a pretty potent backup
People not very acquainted with the Blazers would never list Joel as a good center.
The cake is a lie. Trade the cake!
What do you mean???
Right now Cuban is probably figuring out how to trade Jason Terry for Randy Foye and Josh Howard for Jarvis Hayes. Than his dynasty shall be complete…
RUDY > MJ
As far as I understand the score it doesn't necessarily mean he is top 30 among all players in absolute terms
That would be really weird. Just that he is top 30 for his position and task.
The cake is a lie. Trade the cake!
Telfair
Telfair is up there for this reason. The Wolves started winning more (for them anyway) when he became the starter. This doesn’t make him a good starter, I think the wins started coming because AJ and KL have been completely crushing people on the boards as of late.
But, since Telfair’s increased minutes in the important part of the game = more wins, obviously Telfair = +EV!
Was Foye injured/not playing earlier in the year? He might be along those same lines.
He went through an incredible hot streak in January
Which resulted in more minutes recently. That probably inflated his standing.
Hollinger calls Telfair the worst starting PG in the league
Just sayin
Blazer Fan
by leeroyjenkins on Feb 10, 2009 10:53 AM PST up reply actions
I remember when we were playing Dallas
The commentators said that Dallas started playing significantly better in the last few weeks after they switched from having the coach call the plays to having Kidd decide what plays they would run. That makes me think Kidd’s #2 ranking might not be quite as ridiculous as it appears.
I'm not convinced the timing of their hot streak wasn't just a coincidence
who knows though.
Boomshakalaka
Dunno
Kidd’s BBIQ is off the freaking charts. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if he could run just about any offense better in the NBA than the coach. And he can actually shoot (kind of) now too. Dallas could become a fun sleeper considering the fact that most people had them at the 9 spot.
What did the Bedger Formerly Known As Tom in Hawaii say about "made up" basketball statistics last week?
The cilantro in your tapioca pudding since 2007.™
Essentially that Mark Cuban
will spend 8 years to be able to justify a pretty iffy trade with some made up statistics that no one knows how he got those numbers.
For all of TiH’s made up statistics at least he gives the methodology.
If this system was really useful...
would Cuban post it on the Internet?
by pualo on Feb 10, 2009 12:02 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
um... call me old fashioned
But give me Brandon Roy over Matt Bonner any day.
Chris Dudley for three!
cuban's ego demands he look like he won in that trade
the ratings are absurd
ignacio
btw this might be helpful
Z-Scores via wikipedia:
In statistics, a standard score is a dimensionless quantity derived by subtracting the population mean from an individual raw score and then dividing the difference by the population standard deviation. This conversion process is called standardizing or normalizing.
Standard scores are also called z-values, z-scores, normal scores, and standardized variables.
The standard score indicates how many standard deviations an observation is above or below the mean. It allows comparison of observations from different normal distributions, which is done frequently in research.
The standard score is not the same as the z-factor used in the analysis of high-throughput screening data, but is sometimes confused with it.
Blazer's fan since '84, Spurs fan when they are not playing Portland.
↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → B A
How to make up believable stats 101
Step 1: Put Lebron way higher than anyone else
Step 2: Fill in other spots with random big names.
Step 3: Put the people you want to look good in the final few spots.
by Zaig on Feb 10, 2009 9:28 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
How to make a step by step chart on Blazers Edge.
Step 1: Log in to BE
Step 2: ?????
Step 3: Profit!!
CUBAN’S Z STATS WERE WRITTEN ON Z PAPER SO HE CAN ROLL IT AND SMOKE IT.
"CRUSH YOUR ENEMIES, SEE THEM DRIVEN BEFORE YOU, AND HEAR THE LAMENTATION OF THEIR WOMEN." CONAN
by SELFDESTRUCTABLE on Feb 10, 2009 10:05 AM PST reply actions
................... No, Dirk said "Here are zee stats, now pay me zee money" and Cuban misunderstood.
The cilantro in your tapioca pudding since 2007.™
This pretty much assures that
The Blazers will be better than the Mavs for the next decade or so.
If Cuban and the Mavs think Matt freakin Bonner is an All-Star infront of B-Roy then they are clueless.
What were the specifics of that Kidd for Devin Harris deal again?
The phrases “Mark Cuban” and “sports wizard” have only been used in conjunction one time in history — in this post!!!
The cilantro in your tapioca pudding since 2007.™
They traded Harris, two first round picks, Keith Van Horn, and Diop
for Harris and filler, I believe… something along those lines.
by Cablinasian on Feb 10, 2009 10:54 AM PST up reply actions
In its retooled version after Stackhouse and George couldn't be included
It was Kidd, Antoine Wright and Malik Allen (expiring) for Devin Harris, DeSagana Diop (they brought him back with the full MLE!), Maurice Ager, Trenton Hassell, Keith van Horn, 2008 and 2010 Mavericks first round picks, and $3 million. Yeah, you can’t say they got Kidd on the cheap ;-)
The cake is a lie. Trade the cake!
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