Oden or Durant? Can't Say Yet

by dblieberman on Feb 8, 2009 6:00 PM PST

I was kind of caught off guard by how many headlines I saw about Kevin Durant outplaying Greg Oden after the Thunder dismantled the Blazers earlier this week. While the #1 vs. #2 battle does seem like something the media would play up, I personally was astounded that some fans and writers are still trying to make a judgment on these two draft picks with Oden still having less than a half season of games under his belt.

While almost everyone can unanimously agree that Oden is still developing, I think the most ignored aspect of the Oden vs. Durant debate is how much Durant developed during his first season in the league. Pre All-Star break during the 07-08 season, Durant shot 40.2% from the field on 17 FGA per game (including 28.2% from 3) and put up a 19pts/4reb/2ast line. After the break, he shot 47.6% from the field (31% from 3) with 22pts/5reb/3ast line.

If you break it down by month you can see Durant's progression every more clearly. After shooting a dismal 37.6% in February, he gradually improved before posting a 24pts/6reb/4ast line on 46% shooting in the season's final 8 games in April.

My point is that Durant, after being one of the most inefficient scorers in the league for much of the season, became more familiar with the nuances of the pro game after the break and showed glimpses of what was to come.

This is what I expect to see (and have seen at times) from Oden this season. We all know he will have the occasional 6 pt, 4 reb, 5 foul game. However, as these instances become less frequent we will get a clearer picture of the player Greg will become. In time, Oden will gain his footing and begin his ascension to the top of the list of big men in the NBA.

So while it may be tempting to compare Oden and Durant nearly a year and half after they were drafted, what needs to be understood is that any player's rookie year in the NBA is a roller coaster, even for the most talented players. While Durant has found his place in the league, Oden is still searching for firm footing. Rest assured, he will find it soon.

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Comments

To give you hope

Most of us agree with this idea, even if we support Oden (or Durant). We just pick sides for fun.

Some pick Oden cause they love big men or always support whoever is the current Blazer or like defense (all generally true of me).

Some pick Durant cause they love shooters or always try to go against the grain or like offense.

But you’re correct that the idea is silly and it is just for media attention, because anyone who thinks about it comes up with your conclusion.

".. is gumby an alien?"

by staylost on Feb 8, 2009 6:09 PM PST reply actions

Oden vs Durant

I think if we would have drafted Durant, we would have made the playoffs last year for sure. This year we would be 5-6 games better than we are right now, looking at the #2 seed. That being said, I don’t know if the Blazers with Durant, would be a sure fire champioship team. I think we would have problems against teams with good wing defenders, (like we do now.)

With Oden, if he developes into a top 3 center in the NBA, I do think we can win championships, even when we play tough wing defenders, because with his offense (if it developes of course) the Blazers will be so balanced, they will be very hard to beat 4 out of 7 times.

In the end it is an apples to oranges comparison. Championships, or lack there of, will end the arguement. Check back in 15 – 17 years.

by bad karma on Feb 8, 2009 6:17 PM PST reply actions

Absolutely correct

It’s still impossible to tell. Durant could easily get injured tomorrow or the financial collapse could turn this country into Mad Max in 5 years. I think we need to check back in 2 to 3 years and see how they compare.

He's Coming! Oden Slayer of Giants

by Idog1976 on Feb 8, 2009 7:22 PM PST up reply actions

+1

for Mad Max reference

MLB2PDX!!! (someday...)

by The Cactus Leaguer on Feb 8, 2009 10:26 PM PST up reply actions

Top 3 centers in the league?

our boy has a loooooonnngggg way to go, but here’s hoping.

I do agree that it is too early to decide whether we made the right pick or not, I think we will have to look back at the end of next season.

But to try it from another perspective, if the draft were to be re-done tomorrow, knowing what we do now about the both of them, do you think we would still take Oden?

I don’t think there is even a chance…

"Great Oden's raven!" - Ron Burgandy

by danevan on Feb 9, 2009 9:34 AM PST up reply actions

He’ll be worse than Howard, but that’s the only close-to-sure thing. Bynum/Yao have major injury concerns, and nobody else really comes to mind

My HDTV is a torrented game that I can watch lag-free :(

Let LaMarcus keep the headband!

by inroywetrust on Feb 9, 2009 9:36 AM PST up reply actions

Yeah he will probably never dominate like Howard, but it's very possible. Howard has had several years, and Greg is already more skilled offensively than Howard, when he doesn't turn it over.

by dario argento on Feb 9, 2009 9:49 AM PST up reply actions

more skilled offensively than Howard? according to who?

Have you seen Oden try anything other than a dunk? he might as well have his eyes closed. Right, he can hit a baby hook 1/5 times…congrats Oden. He shoots his FT’s better than Howard, but hardly gets to the line because he gets stripped every time he is downlow.
Howard almost averages Gregs career high, when was Gregs last 30 point outing? thats what I thought…
Im sorry, I a huge fan, but greg isnt getting my respect until he earns it.

"Great Oden's raven!" - Ron Burgandy

by danevan on Feb 9, 2009 9:57 AM PST up reply actions

that's hoping for the best...

and “major injury concerns”? do you remember what greg was doing this time last year?
while I do hope he improves, he hasnt really stepped up his game much since the beginning of the season, averaged less in points and rebounds in january than his season average.
At this point I still place him behind Howard, Yao and Bynum by a long ways, as well as behind Lopez, Jefferson, Beidrins, Shaq, Okafor, Horford, Big Z, Bogut and Chandler. I think he will pass a lot of those in the next year or so, but top 3 is still a while away.

"Great Oden's raven!" - Ron Burgandy

by danevan on Feb 9, 2009 10:04 AM PST up reply actions

Top 3 still a while away

Oden being a top 3 center is closer than OKC Super Thunder (or whatever) being a championship contender with Durant. (not that its Durants fault)

by bad karma on Feb 9, 2009 11:24 AM PST up reply actions

how does that even slightly relate to the Oden/Durant debate?

They would be even farther from being championship contenders if they had Oden instead…

"Great Oden's raven!" - Ron Burgandy

by danevan on Feb 9, 2009 11:53 AM PST up reply actions

my original comment

was that the Oden and Durant debate would only be settled by # of championships. With that being said, I think Oden can develope in 2-3 years to be a top 3 center in the NBA. I think it will take OKC longer to become a title contender.

by bad karma on Feb 9, 2009 5:13 PM PST up reply actions

When ya'll was arguing for Oden or Durant...

I was the guy saying the only thing we should be doing here is finding away to get both. We would have had to trade most everyone not named Greg, LA, or Roy but we would have a starting line up for the ages.

As good as Durant is and as bad as I want him a Blazer I’m still glad we didn’t gut our bench for him. I love me the Spanish Connection, and Batumm and Prizbilla. I am mostly a fan of Outlaw and still think he could be valuable to this team. Think about it, sure he’s so inconsistent, either amazing and unstoppable or a trainwreck but what if he did improve his basketball IQ? Would you still want to get rid of him? NO I say.

Oh and Webster is going to be the real deal when he gets back. Bayless is going to be great and an amazing asset too.

I’m blathering, exited after a last sec vic from PDXTB and B Roy,

by Blazersaurus on Feb 8, 2009 6:39 PM PST reply actions

that's a pipe dream

no way Seattle who have given us the #2 pick without us including at least one of LMA or Roy

Rule #1 of nitpicking is to get it right.

by douglast on Feb 8, 2009 7:05 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

LMA wouldn't have been enough

it would have had to be Roy+something.

It wouldn’t have been worth it.

I believe we made our pick based on sound logic. So far it looks like the results were not the best ones, but we did not know Greg would have the microfracture. Time will tell if the long term results are positive or negative. If the pick was made using good logic, it was still the right pick regardless of results.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Feb 8, 2009 7:31 PM PST up reply actions

It's apples and oranges, but their apples are way the hell better than our oranges at this point...

The cilantro in your tapioca pudding since 2007.™

by timbo on Feb 8, 2009 7:47 PM PST reply actions

I like oranges...

Now how you like them apples?!

The Kings have the best bench I’ve seen. There are easily 14 guys on this team good enough for every bench in the league. Now if we could only get some starters, I’d totally jizz in my pants.

Kings fan

by dyshooter182 on Feb 8, 2009 8:24 PM PST up reply actions

The Oden injury skews everything.

Big men take years to develop; this is a fact supported by years of empirical evidence. Greg Oden lost a year to microfracture surgery, and likely a bit of the athleticism he possessed pre-surgery. So while Durant’s advancement graph slopes like a steep mountain, Oden’s starts much lower on the Y-axis and climbs like a rolling hill.

The Blazers win this decision if Oden winds up being the interior defensive and rebounding presence everyone thinks he can be. This skillset is very difficult to find in a man Oden’s size, and it’s the reason he was the number one overall pick despite Durant’s obvious offensive advantages. The theory was, of course, that wing scoring is easier to get than a 7-foot, 285-pound manchild who moves like a cat and leaps like a gazelle.

Can Oden ever reach that ceiling? The answer is in doubt now, and that doubt is going to cause more and more fans to imagine (in perfect 20-20 hindsight) Kevin Durant flanked by Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge on a fast break.

by trevorthegreat on Feb 8, 2009 8:22 PM PST reply actions

Basketball writers

have to write about something and the classic “who is better” article gets reader. Granted that the premise is flawed as the 1-1 NBA is still years away, but it still makes for readable articles. Luckily there is still some Oden or Durant debate unlike the 05’ draft where you never here an argument about why it was a good idea to pick Bogut or Williams over Paul or D Williams.

Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.

by jonestr on Feb 8, 2009 8:23 PM PST reply actions

I said this in a different thread, but it applies to this one as well

Greg Oden shot attempts rookie year: 5.7
Kevin Durant shot attempts rookie year: 17.1

Greg Oden minutes per game rookie year: 22.8
Kevin Durant minutes per game rookie year: 34.6

Kevin Durant averages more shots in his rookie year than Greg Oden’s career high.

Stop comparing the two.

Karma

by Sabonis4Ever on Feb 8, 2009 9:26 PM PST reply actions

+1

there is no comparison, they dont play the same position, or the same role on their teams.

if a team that drafted oden wanted to, im sure he could average 20 points and 8+ boards per game, i mean the guy shoots more than 55%

by Yawnie on Feb 8, 2009 10:07 PM PST up reply actions

whether you like it or not, they will always be compared.

I love Oden, but so far, he loses the comparison. Yeah, you can say he doesn’t play enough minutes, but it is because he is tied to the bench by Nate? No, it’s because he averages a foul every 6 minutes of play. And and don’t you think there is a reason he isn’t taking many shots? It’s because he shoots just over 30% on anything that isn’t a dunk, granted he has much more offensive options on the Blazers that Durant has on the Thunder, but Odens offense just isnt there yet.
I think got a stellar player and future all-star out of that draft, and I hope that we can look back and say we got the best player, but if Durant continues to improve like he has been, that might not be possible.

"Great Oden's raven!" - Ron Burgandy

by danevan on Feb 9, 2009 9:43 AM PST up reply actions

The real question here

is Telfair or Roy.

by Cablinasian on Feb 8, 2009 10:25 PM PST reply actions 1 recs

If OKC offered Durant for Oden straight up, would you take it?

Me neither. I still think Oden will be, at worst, a top 5 center over the next decade. And to me that is more valuable to a team than a 6’ 10’’ version of George Gervin.

MLB2PDX!!! (someday...)

by The Cactus Leaguer on Feb 8, 2009 10:31 PM PST reply actions

if oden could average 15 points 10 boards and maybe 2 blocks

by year 3 he would be under serious consideration for an all star nod.

the reason i say this is because the western conference all star center position could really be up for grabs in the future, yao could be injured any year, and shaq will be retired possibly in 2 years. after that maybe al jefferson, or nene, but no one really stands out. and tim duncan normally get voted in as a forward.

by Yawnie on Feb 9, 2009 6:34 AM PST up reply actions

I bet if you tossed that option at every GM in the league you would get an over-whelming response for...

Durant!

If you clear the Blazers homerism out of your head for a little, its a no-brainer.

How about number for the month of Febuary:
Durant – 33.5 pts, 5.8 rbs, 3.8 ast, 1.0 blks.
Oden – 8.3 pts, 6.0 rbs, 1.0 ast., 1.5 blks.

And lets not forget, Durant is even younger than Oden and still growing into his body, when he fills into that frame and develops a post-game, it’s going to be scary.
And none of that “durant plays more minutes…” we all know why Oden doesn’t stay on the floor…

"Great Oden's raven!" - Ron Burgandy

by danevan on Feb 9, 2009 9:51 AM PST up reply actions

Yes, I would

That doesn’t mean I think it was the wrong pick, nor does it mean I’m down on Oden. I think he’s having a solid rookie year. With Durant’s development into a dynamite and EFFICIENT scorer, pretty good rebounder and decent passer and Oden’s microfracture, Durant’s value has far surpassed Oden’s. I would do the trade.

That’s not to say Oden can’t become the more valuable player, just that right now the smart money is on Durant.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Feb 9, 2009 10:59 AM PST up reply actions

Yeah you can, it's Durant

That said Oden should be a nice piece for us in the future. But I highly doubt Oden will ever be a supertstar where Durant already is.

I hope I’m wrong.

Blazer Fan

by leeroyjenkins on Feb 9, 2009 7:42 AM PST reply actions

+1

"Great Oden's raven!" - Ron Burgandy

by danevan on Feb 9, 2009 9:52 AM PST up reply actions

we should have just drafted Noah with the number 1. just because he wore that awesome tux to draft night.

by dario argento on Feb 9, 2009 9:51 AM PST reply actions

Oden is the man....

The biggest stat last night wasnt the points or rebounds but the 6 blocks. Oden may never be the main scorer on the Blazers but he will be a HUGE defesive presence. Durant will score tons of points and may improve his defense but in Portland Oden will fit perfectly into our system were he wont score tons of points but will anchore our defense for the next ten yrs.

by blazerchamp on Feb 9, 2009 11:05 AM PST reply actions