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Expounding on Dave's Rotation Change Suggestion

I've been thinking about rotations since reading Dave's call for a new starting lineup.  I completely agree that a change needs to be made, as it has always confused me somewhat that we never seem to start our best lineups -- big surprise that we keep getting off to slow starts.

A quick look at The Popcorn Machine shows that in the past few games, there are a few patterns worth noting:

1) The least surprising -- we suck at the beginning and improve dramatically towards the end of games.

2) We have very different lineups during those two times -- the starters are usually not the same as the finishers.

3) Our "early suck" lineup is usually Oden, Batum, Sergio, Roy and Aldridge, while our "late not suck" lineup is usually Aldridge, Roy, Bayless, and two of the three of Outlaw/Przy/Rudy.

4) Oden has been playing like crap -- we are almost always playing better when he is off the floor.  To a lesser extent, this is also true for Sergio and Batum.

I am of the opinion that stopping these slow starts is of primary importance to this team.  Without Blake, we are really struggling to pull that off, in large part because the skill sets of his backups are very different from his.

In order to accomplish this, I would recommend one of the following starting lineups:

Bayless, Roy, Outlaw, Aldridge, Przybilla

OR

Bayless, Rudy, Roy, Aldridge, Przybilla

I think that option 1 is more likely, personally I'd go with option 2.  The bottom line is that five of our six best players  need to be on the floor to start the game, and right now none of them are named Greg, Nic or Sergio.

That leaves for a nice second unit lineup of Sergio, Rudy, Nic, Aldridge and Oden, or Sergio, Roy, Nic, Outlaw, Oden.  There are some other permutations that could work as well.

Allow me to conclude with a few caveats:

1) This is a dramatically different team without Steve Blake.  In order to maximize the combinations of players on this team, we need to rethink the way we put our lineups together.

2) This is not an indictment of Greg, Sergio or Nic.  I think they are all very talented, and especially Greg and Nic have a lot of room to grow into being important contributers to this team.  But right now, without Steve, it's not happening.  Also, this isn't to say that I think Bayless is better than Sergio or Przy is better than Greg.  It's just a matter of fit without Blake's steadying influence.

3) I understand the cries for player development over winning, that we're destroying Greg's psyche by sending him to the bench.  First of all, if Greg is going to be the franchise cornerstone, he needs to learn early that sometimes he will need to take some lumps in order to benefit the team.  He's not fully developed yet, and it's not all about him.  Right now our best lineup doesn't involve him, but I'm sure that will change by next season.

4) Finally, let's not forget that even with all of our crappy first quarters, we are one of the eight best teams in the NBA right now.  I'm confident that we will weather this no matter what, and of course there will be more tweaks to make once Webster returns from injury as well.  But some tinkering now might mean the difference between a first-round exit and a shot at the Conference Finals.

Keep your heads up, Blazer fans, and let's hope that some kinds of changes happen in the starting lineups SOON.

0 recs  |  Comment 9 comments

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In the last 10 games

Oden has avg 11.1ppg, and 7.1 rebounds per game. that is not crap. He is young, so he defense is still tied to his offense, feed him on offense and he has more energy on defense. If you want proof, go watch the game film from all the games where Greg posted a double double. His offense leads him to active defense.

I am not totally against Greg coming off the bench, infact he had some of his best games of the year coming off the bench, but I also believe Greg needs to go up against 1 units, not 2nd units if he is to really improve.

by usmcr3049 on Feb 7, 2009 10:08 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

you're right

Greg is not playing like crap. However, Greg’s play is leading to the other team scoring a lot more points than our team, especially when he plays with our current starting lineup. You’re also probably right that it would make Greg feel better to start, and perhaps make him play better as well.

But it’s not all about Greg. I believe that our team is much more likely to get early leads and win games with Przy starting. Greg will continue to improve coming off the bench, it’s not like it’s summer league in the 2nd quarter. Our team needs to stop blowing it out of the gate. We need a different starting lineup to achieve that.

by kickbrass on Feb 7, 2009 10:17 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Oden dominates against 2nd tier players.

Let him come off the bench. Joel is the guy I want playing when (if) we are in the playoffs.

by tmundal on Feb 7, 2009 10:26 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Rudy at the three

to start the game would help Greg
1) he can pass to the post
2) he is a 3 point threat (defense is sagging off Batum)
3) he can start and finish a fast break
in short it would be a smoother game at the start. But we could get killed on D

by Gmepleyar on Feb 7, 2009 12:36 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

My choice for starting lineup:

Bayless, Roy, Batum, Aldridge, Przybilla

I think that the Blazers problems have been exacerbated by injuries. We need Blake and Webster – DESPERATELY – and we can’t have them. Blake adds some very important abilities to the PG position and having only rookie Batum and Outlaw as our options at SF just plain sucks! Outlaw plays better as the backup PF, leaving Batum as our only true SF. I know that many of my fellow BEdgers think that Rudy or Roy can fill in as SF, but I have not seen much evidence to support that theory.

The end result? Blazers are screwed until we get our missing pieces back.

Blazer's Edge Ambassador to The Dream Shake Blog
LMA Rocks and B-Rex ROARS!!
RRRRRRROOOOOOOWWWWWRRRRRRSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by LaMarvelous on Feb 7, 2009 1:02 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I like that lineup

Not only does it make our starting unit better, it would likely make the bench unit better as well. Sergio and Rudy tend to play better together, and both of them are better at getting the ball to Greg than our other guards. With Oden getting the ball more and going up against backups, he will be more effective on offense which will hopefully lead to him doing better on defense as well.

by trk on Feb 7, 2009 4:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

My suggestion:

Get Steve and Martell back. Our offense is built on three point shooting from the point and small forward.

by Cablinasian on Feb 7, 2009 1:14 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

The three players that actually matter on this team are Roy, LMA, Oden

Roy, LMA, Oden > anybody else on this team including the coaches. Those three guys need to get the most shots and playing time together. Bayless does not matter in the long run. Joel does not matter in the long run. Nothing is more important than Roy, LMA, and Oden playing together.

Karma

by Sabonis4Ever on Feb 7, 2009 2:57 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

last time I checked,

Five people have to be on the court at a time in an NBA basketball game. It’s pretty clear that when Oden is in the lineup, the other teams’ five guys are playing better, at least at this stage of his development. I don’t think Oden is a bust, we just need a change at the get-go and I think he’s a part of the problem right now.

by kickbrass on Feb 7, 2009 4:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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