Rec? Obsolete: Daily Update and Silly Sched Projections -- Games of 2/5

This is now obsolete, a new update has been posted.  Bust a Bucket wants you to rec this one now that it is obsolete.

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Projection explanation in my Sched Ahead Threads.

Yesterday's Update

Yesterday's Games

As noted yesterday, all three games were of interest.  Philly won, flipping to a .500 team, affecting almost everyone's numbers.  Elton Brand is out for the year.  They've been a better team without him. 

L.A. sent a message at Boston.  The loss of Bynum doesn't change the fact that they are still elite, and have the top seed nailed down -- it would take another key injury to call that into question.

Any dreams that the SW division was going to help us in the NW were dispersed, as the team that played us certainly didn't show up at SLC.  The result (W for Utah) was little surprise, but you would have hoped Dallas would make them work hard, especially since Utah has to play again tonight.  Utah has won 3 of their last four as they try to get back into the playoff hunt -- the loss was in Portland.

One interesting little twist -- Sloan played all starters except Millsap over 35 minutes last night, despite being up by 28 after 3.  So unless they played the entire first 3 quarters, they were logging time in the fourth with Utah up by 28.  Brewer played 41 minutes.  Do you think Jerry didn't want to take any chances on that one getting away?  Dallas still might be the team Utah has to beat out for the last playoff spot, and he was taking no chances.  All that even though they have a back to back at Sacramento.  It was better for Utah to lose at Sacramento but hang onto the Dallas win than to rest guys in the hopes of beating the Kings and let Dallas get back in the game.

Projections

All changes except L.A., Utah, and Dallas due to Philly effect:

1. L.A. — 66.5 wins, up from 65.8.
2. S.A. — 56.2, up from 55.3.
3. Denver — 55.5, down from 56.
4. Portland — 53.4, up from 53.1. 
5. N.O. — 51.0, down from 51.2. 
6. Dallas — 49.9, down from 50.1.  Positive Philly effect mostly cancels the impact of the loss at Utah.
7. Houston — 49.9, down from 50.0. 
8. Utah — 44.6, up from 43.4.  Without the Philly effect, they still would have been up to 44, increasing their slight edge over Phoenix.
9. Phoenix — 42.5, down from 43.0. 

Note about the projections 

Phoenix is still being punished for their poor home record against losing teams (5-4).  As a result, the spreadsheet is only projecting 5.56 wins in their remaining 10 Cream Puff Home games.  I doubt anyone really expects them to be that poor in those games, so the spreadsheet overstates their weakness.  A win tonight will start to resolve that.  A loss might be evidence that they really are that weak.

Don't count Phoenix out yet.  Nor is Dallas safe -- they've had a hot spell before, only to have it go really bad.  Houston could also get in trouble if they don't keep healthy.

Interesting games tonight

1. Classic Banana Peel game for us at OKC.  They beat Utah, and Denver twice needed a game winner from 'Melo.  They are 8-9 in their last 17, 6-5 in their last 11 home games, with three of the home losses by 2 or less.  They don't seem to win close games, only two of their wins this season coming by less than eight points.  If we can't crush them, if we at least stay close there's a good chance they will find a way to lose.
2. N.O. hosts the Raptors.  Will Chris Paul play?  Hornets might win even if he doesn't.  Toronto hasn't clicked at all this year.
3. Denver at Washington.  Another classic Banana Peel.  Not entirely healthy, and the third in 4 nights.  Denver should still win, but there are plenty of reasons it could go sour.  Denver is 20-1 against losing teams this year, 19-0 since Billups arrived.
4. Utah at Kings.  Utah's back to back record is abominable (that's being charitable).  On the other hand, the Kings entire record is abominable.  Never underestimate Utah's ability to lose, even to bad teams, on the road, but this should be a W for the Jazz. 
5. Golden State at Phoenix.  Suns will be looking for revenge after losing by the Bay two nights earlier.

The Trailblazers shouldn't be looking for too much help from other teams tonight.  We got plenty of help on Wednesday, but none of these look like a real strong possibility.  It will be no surprise if one of our rivals loses in one of these games (except perhaps for Phoenix, or N.O. if CP3 is back), but in each of them, you would have to say the Western contenders are favored.

A win tonight and it's a really good trip, and we've strengthened our position considerably over the course of it.  It also puts us back at .500 on the road, and means that if all of our rivals win their games tonight, we just shrug and say, "Doesn't matter much, we mostly expected them to."

A loss makes it a disappointing trip, we'll lose ground in the playoff race, and we'll be 2 games under .500 on the road.  We'll be watching the scoreboard and pleading with Golden State to find a way to win in Phoenix.

My considered opinion, taking all those facts into account, is that we should try to win.  Someone tell Nate to pass that on to the team.