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So what has changed?

With recent talks of trading Outlaw, Sergio and Reaf for Miller and filler, I can't help but think back to last year when there was (supposedly) an almost done deal with Sergio, Outlaw and Frye (!) leaving us and we would in return get Devin Harris and change. I look back now and say wow, what I bet KP would do for that chance again. It's so easy to at this point. Then I realize all the differences that have taken place on this team since a year ago. So what has changed?

I'll start with Travis, since at that time he was the deal breaker. Travis Outlaw was on a tear that you would not want to trade for anyone. He was as clutch as Roy was, singlehandedly winning games for us (or at least it felt that way) left and right . If he were able to keep up that pace we would have another all-star on our roster. We were short on players at small forward, and Martell didn't match what Travis did and vice-versa. We had a good thing going that brought us a 13 game winning streak. We also had too many point guards who showed promise. Blake, Serge, Jack, Green, Koppenen and even Roy had the possibility of becoming the point guard that we needed, and each of them had a band wagon. Granted, Harris would have been a huge upgrade to any of them (except Roy, but playing him out of position isn't something I would want to hang my hat on). We were young enough to take a good risk-reward strategy with our guards. It was a toss up, but I was fine with what occoured at that time.

We also find ourselves with possibly the perfect fit at small forward. Batum, I personally think, solves so many problems for us. Him and Martell have the possibilty of being everything we could ask for (looking at things right now) from the 3 spot. Travis is still streaky Travis. We thought we found consistancy from him at that point, but it was just a dream. The one who turned out to be the consistent performer was the one that got away.

Another thing that happened is our guard situation has changed. A lot. Sergio's not happy sitting around and taking his time to develop. He wants to play a lot more than he is (or at least was, I haven't heard many complaints from him lately). I love Sergio, but I am now ready to see him go. I'm still not sold on the idea that he will never be a great point guard, though it seems more and more likely that maybe he can't become that here. I am coming to the realization that Blake and Bayless will become our ideal point guard tandem. And maybe Petteri can get a plane ticket over here to try his hand in the NBA as well. And I will wish Sergio the best and still root for him throughout his career no matter what happens to him. Unless he goes, you know, there. Also, we found out Channing sucks. I still love you Channing, but only after the whistle blows.

Now, as this trade dealine approaches, I can't help but look at our situation now in relation to the past. We are still a young team, and we have a great shot at filling in our roster with the pieces we already have. I really think that Batum, Oden, Aldridge, Bayless and Rudy will become somewhere close to where us homers see them.  I can't tell who is going to be our biggest star of those, and I couldn't really imagine trading any of those 4 right now without getting something out of reach in return. I also think that our defense would be monsterous on all levels with Oden, LMA, Batum and Bayless once everyone gets into their prime. Roy and Rudy could score more points between the two of them than other teams combined. I also can see the value of having Joel and Blake on the team. They are also not likely to be matched in return value, since thier roles seem to fit us like a glove. That leaves a lot to play with. I think our team has more of an identity now and in the future than we could find last year at this point, and therefore we can find the pieces we need to better fill the gaps in as we go since we, in all likelyhood, have our core. Last year we had only a dream of Oden (which so far is looking better than the real thing, but he is still very far from where he is going), no Bayless or Batum, Rudy wasn't here and Blake wasn't a solid 3 point threat. All of those things amount to an enormous difference. 

In looking at this, I also can't help but think of how the fan base and the site have changed. A year and a half ago, there was a lot less pressure on this team. People were thrilled to get to .500 in this conference since we were were such a young team. We still are a young team, but our timeline isn't the same as it used to be. On one hand, I feel like if we made a strong move we could be considered in weak contention for the west this season (with Bynum going down anyone who makes the playoffs has a shot at it). However, I can still see the bigger picture in that we don't want to chisle away at the core of our team that will be in strong title contention for many, many years if all goes well. This puts a lot of people at odds with each other. When it comes down to it we're all Blazers fans, and we all want the best for this team (so seriously, stop with the JBOF stuff). We're all also emotional, and want to win now. There is most likely going to be a trade in the next couple of weeks. Could be good in some eyes, could be a bad idea to others. It will be a change. I do think we could do some things that could put us in contention this season. I think we are going to have to do something pretty soon or we will run out of roster spots. Too much talent, what a problem to have.

I wrote this simply because I was reflecting on the trade deadline last year and wanted to share it. I was so strong on Harris, but I honestly thought they were crazy for wanting Outlaw myself. It all just trips me out looking back. It will be interesting next year at this point to see where we are then.

Comment 14 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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You bring up an important point about trades

Fans usually want to trade the cow long after it’s out of the barn. You can’t do that. If you realize a player is sub-par you can bet most NBA GM’s have known it for a while. You have to move bossy while she’s still shiny clean and in the pen if you want top price for her.

You have to give value (or at least potential value) to get value. You have to trade some of those “deal-breaker” guys while they are still deal-breakers. The Portland fan base has been terrified of making that kind of move since the Jermaine O’Neal debacle, but it’s the way to get real business done. How do you know the guy you’re trading isn’t going to become a genuine deal-breaker? That’s what separates the bad GM’s from the great ones.

—Dave

by Dave on Feb 5, 2009 10:52 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

Great post

That trade last year had me going in every direction as well. But Bayless reminds me a lot of a young D-Harris, so maybe in the long run we will be better off for not making the trade.

This is what Lucas would do. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0aPkIE2qK0

by 123_G.O._RipCity on Feb 5, 2009 11:02 PM PST reply actions  

He gives me the same feeling

and that’s a good feeling to have.

I like whatever metric makes a Blazer look better.

by einman77 on Feb 6, 2009 8:15 AM PST up reply actions  

From what I remember

KP would have loved to do the trade, it was either Dallas or New Jersey that didn’t like it.

by Gargen on Feb 5, 2009 11:35 PM PST reply actions  

Is it a real rumor?

I don’t remember ever reading about it. It seems like it gets better and better each time someone refers to it. Although a lot of that has to do with the way Harris is playing. I want a link.

It's not offensive until someone reads it.

by Dragline on Feb 6, 2009 4:03 AM PST up reply actions  

I like a lot of the points made in the post (as Dave said above), but the Harris deal is at least in part an urban myth created by a Woj/NJ paper article

Here is your link

Some things to ponder:

  • Stackhouse couldn’t shut his mouth about being bought out after any deal just in time to re-join the Mavs for the playoffs. So he was out of the deal.
  • The George said no to any deal because he would have lost his bird rights (which he ultimately put to good use since Dallas actually was dumb enough to re-sign him for two more years). Remember that Cuban had to find a different version, having to bring Van Horn out of retirement that cost him 11 million more?
  • Dallas wanted Kidd. Nothing else was important, although they got a nice SG out of it (Wright) too. They were not shy to throw in other own players (4) and draft picks (2), but not getting Kidd would have been the deal breaker
  • NJ wanted a replacement for Kidd. You are fooling yourself if you really think they would have accepted much less preferred a deal landing them Jack. Devin Harris was already way better than Jack last year, having gone to the finals in 2006.
  • NJ did not need another athletic wing like Travis. They had Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson at that time.

In summary: Even if that deal was in place as outlined in the article which I doubt, it was not KP’s decision to let it fall through. It’s not like NJ and Dallas were begging him to take Harris if only he would be willing to give up Outlaw.

by Norsktroll on Feb 6, 2009 4:36 AM PST up reply actions  

When you break it down like that it doesn't seem realisitic to think the other teams would have done it

It didn’t happen so by-gones are what they are. It did cause a lot of stir here, and I thought I would use it as a reference point for some perspective. It’s not so much a what could have been post as it is a where we have come from in a year post. At the start of the season everything is a mystery, but at the trade deadline we have a bit more awareness into what we have and what we are looking for. That’s all I posted it for, but thanks for thoroughly breaking down what the deal was about.

I like whatever metric makes a Blazer look better.

by einman77 on Feb 6, 2009 8:13 AM PST up reply actions  

exactly. I dont think KP ever had a chance to make that deal. It would have been a no-brainer for him to do.

The scouting report on Devin Harris at that time was; one of the top 5 perimeter defenders in the league, one of the fastest players in the nba who can run the break and finish and draw FT’s at will, a PG still with enormous potential who is still learning how to set up teammates. No way this deal was on the table and KP didn’t pull the trigger.

by dario argento on Feb 6, 2009 10:46 AM PST up reply actions  

Thanks

It's not offensive until someone reads it.

by Dragline on Feb 6, 2009 12:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Jermaine O Neil

Why is everyone talking about Jermaine like we did not know what we had? Everybody in Portland said the kid was future all-star, we all saw the talent. Portland was a perenial contender to go to the finals during that period of time that was when Portlands bench was jokingly talked about as being a 2-3 seed in the then very lowly east.
Jermaine asked Whittsett(or demanded not really sure)to be traded he just could not get quality playing time behind Sheed. O Neil for Davis who was an all-star in the east and a grizzled vet was not a bad move,it may not have been populer but Davis filled the role he played nicely. Davis also was not a distraction where as O Neil making a demand about being traded and being stashed away on the bench could have proved devastating.

I try to help with everything," Fernandez said. "If the coach says go rebound, I go rebound. I work for the team.

""If I'm playing this game to get media and attention, I shouldn't be here," Aldridge said. "I'm here to play basketball, and do what I can do to help this team win."

by Dragonage on Feb 6, 2009 8:46 AM PST reply actions  

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