Kevin Pelton's Stat Bomb Sequel - Blazers Starters
Last night we dropped a noggin bomb from Basketball Prospectus's Kevin Pelton. If you haven't yet read that, go do so now. Today's sequel continues our look at the APBRmetric term "similarity" and how it applies to the Blazers.
To review quickly, similarity is a comparative rating (on a 1 to 100 scale) between any two players from NBA history that have played at least 250 minutes. "NBA History" starts with the 1979-1980 season because that's when the 3 point line was added. For reference, two identical players would score a similarity of 100, a score of 98 is virtually identical, 95 is very similar and anything below 90 is pretty sketchy. Similarity takes into account 13 separate factors, everything from the basics like height and weight to the uber-mathematic per-minute win % rating.
Click through for the results for the Blazers starting lineup!
KP2 says... Dominique Wilkins? A weird name, which says more about Wilkins' rookie season (he'd yet to develop any outside game) than Aldridge. The rest of the comps make more sense -- offensive-minded power forwards of questionable rebounding prowess. Four of the 10 guys made an All-Star Game, th ough Baker was the only one to appear mult iple times.
Ben says... if you're of the opinion that LaMarcus needs to bang more, here's a case of ammunition for you. Interesting to see that none of the names he usually gets compared with (Garnett, Bosh, etc.) are on the list. Statistics can be brutal if you are inconsistent, which LaMarcus was and still is on occasion.
KP2 says... Three-point-happy point guards ... and Derek Anderson?
Ben says... It's interesting how high his similarity scores are. As KP2 mentioned when discussing Outlaw, when your skill set is defined and common in the league, the scores go way up. More evidence of that here with Blake.
KP2 says... I'm not sure how much we can take from this list. Oden's usage is creeping up, but the fact that he's still a secondary offensive option enhances the similarity to Biedrins (which is hardly an insult). It's worth pointing out that in some cases "most similar" is really "least dissimilar," especially for unique players. Oden tends to qualify.
Ben says... I've been reading in the fanposts recently about how ridiculous Greg's rebounding per minute numbers are. Here you can see some names that pound hard. Really hard. Also, I'm sure you're grinning that Dwight Howard's name is on this list. I caught you, didn't I?
KP2 says... even though Batum's production has not been outstanding this season, players who see so much action at age 20 have turned out pretty good. Hence Batum's list of comparables includes some pretty good players. Johnson or Lewis would suit the Blazers just fine, I suspect.
Ben says... If Sergio's numbers yesterday didn't cause you to jump up in excitement, how do you like these apples? Sure he needs to buy a new jumpshot at a garage sale this summer but that list is ridiculous. How appropriate that Martell winds up on this list too. But keep in mind that no one scored above 95.
KP2 says ... The only surprise amongst Roy's similar players is that they tend to be bigger players like Dantley and Aguirre more than combo guards like Francis. I figured we might see more of the latter because of Roy's role as an "initiator" on offense. Otherwise, this group is further confirmation of Roy taking the next step in his development this season.
Ben says... Boom goes the mind. Even with the abundance of big time names, I think we can say with certainty that Brandon is charting to eclipse nearly all of them. Another great reminder of what a special player Brandon is already, in just his third season.
-- Ben (benjamin.golliver@gmail.com)
4 recs |
82 comments
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Comments
Pro timing Ben
I just got done reading the first one of these!
by Zaig on Feb 4, 2009 10:47 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Yea
If you needed any convincing that Batum is going to be a productive player for us down the road then maybe this helps. I was at the Utah game when he exploded and you can just see how well he fits with this team. Down the line a core group of him, Roy, LA, Oden and Bayless is hard to beat defensively and offensively.
by sPresley on Feb 4, 2009 10:52 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
hmm
LMA is closely considered to a bunch of SF, and not a single real PF on the list. But you can’t go really wrong with being considered most similar to Dominique Wilkins, right? Dude was a major baller!
Roy’s comparisons are understandable considering his style and Michael Finley was a major baller a few years ago, but I’m really disappointed Jordan wasn’t even on the list. But heck, I’ll take Kobe at the age of 24, even if he was nothing more than a ball hog at the time.
by premthegrem on Feb 4, 2009 10:52 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
keep in mind jordan came in as a rookie averaging 28, was injured almost a full year, then put up 37 and 35 ppg seasons (these numbers don’t happen any more). i would guess his similarity list at age 24/25 is going to be as ultra select as it gets.
by Ben. on Feb 4, 2009 11:03 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
and i would include him in the ultra select category and expect him to be high on jordan’s similarity list.
by Ben. on Feb 4, 2009 11:10 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
and from the last 10 years he’s the only one, and for only one season, to get close…
by Ben. on Feb 4, 2009 11:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Didn't pace go down in this decade though?
So even if Jordan averaged more, I think this system adjusts for pace. He may have scored a whole lot of points, but the margin isn’t as big as the raw numbers suggest.
by Cablinasian on Feb 4, 2009 11:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
you can adjust all you want but nobody came into the league like MJ… including b roy…
by Ben. on Feb 4, 2009 11:17 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If you're comparing ages, and not experience
then LeBron’s season at 21, his third, was better than Jordan’s season at 21, his rookie year. I suspect pace would make the discrepancy further.
Obviously, if you compare the rookie years, they aren’t close.
by Cablinasian on Feb 4, 2009 11:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i would guess overall bron would be near the very top of jordan’s ultra select group although the head start from the extra years might complicate things.
lebron at 21 > jordan at 21? yeah i would agree with that…
but for similarity at 24/25 and scoring numbers… regardless of era, pace, etc. jordan’s 37 ppg at 23/24 is just ridiculous.
this year at 24 yo brandon is clocking 22 ppg. absolutely pace is a factor but that’s a big jump from 22 to 37. the original question is why isn’t jordan on the list. that’s your answer.
by Ben. on Feb 4, 2009 11:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yea I remember that Jordan came in averaging ridiculous numbers
as a rookie, which is why he got into the all star game as a rookie (wasn’t there a big controversy with his all star teammates being jealous of the attention given to him so they played keep away with him for the whole game?) But I do believe that Roy has about as good a mid-range game as anybody in the league. When you see him take a hesitation jumper and then jog backwards, it just reminds me so much of Jordan doing the same thing. A fan can dream, can’t he? And besides, haven’t we paid our karmic dues? I feel like we’ve earned the right to our own MJ.
by premthegrem on Feb 4, 2009 1:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Brandon also doesn't play the game like MJ
Not as big of a defensive presence. That, in my mind, is the place where he could step up his game the most.
Kobe when he was 24 averaged: 30pt, 7rb, 6ast, 2.2st, and .8block
MJ when he was 24 averaged: 35pt, 5.5rb, 6ast, 3.16st and 1.6 block.
Brandon: 22pt, 4.6rb, 5.1 ast, 1.19st, .37 block.
Brandon while awesome is not doing that. regadless of pace he’s not up there yet, because of defensive stats.
Just give it some time.
If he just becomes 1 steal or block more per game of a defensive player, and turns those into points it will put him at that Ultra-Elite level, as apposed to the Very-Elite.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fj8DgWnbVng&feature=bz303
MVP *** MVP *** MVP
I've never scored more than 38 ..... not even in Little League.
by Portland89 on Feb 4, 2009 1:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
also was bean’s 10th season, he was a few years older than jordan when jordan got 37 and 35
by Ben. on Feb 4, 2009 11:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
ben: why don't you take dwight, jordan, bird, and some other notables
from their rookie years, and run their numbers. See how accurate this system actually is.
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
by nima on Feb 4, 2009 2:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
already requested jordan from KP2. he didn’t have it handy this morning.
his similarity formula didn’t just happen, he’s been doing apbr stuff for years… tweaking at it, etc…
KP2 does all the work and it takes some time to do.
by Ben. on Feb 4, 2009 2:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
His work is awesome
Thought provoking and tons of fun. Good going Mr. Pelton.
Thanks for facilitating Ben. – Elgin
Since when do we need to ponder to froth? - jscot
by 22baylor on Feb 4, 2009 3:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm rather surprised Paul Pierce isn't on the list
Maybe later in their career.
by Norsktroll on Feb 4, 2009 11:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The similarities with Dominique are kind of striking IMO
Both are/were long, slender, swift, graceful, offensively dominant, capable of making the big defensive play, and both (so far) just short of the “superstar” status conferred on those able to lead their team to a championship.
Didn’t think much of the other stat sets, except that comparing Sleepy Floyd with Blake is kind of interesting. Sleepy could get red-hot (still holds a playoff record for points in a quarter and in a half, I believe — in a game I listened to on the radio in Berkeley), and Steve is likewise a streaky player with an unknown upside in that regard. Remember last year, when Nate took him out when he just couldn’t miss?
by CatMan2 on Feb 4, 2009 12:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Steve Blake and Brad Davis
As someone who was in Dallas (briefly) during the mid-80s and saw the first two games of the “Audie Norris” playoff series, this comparison brings back fond memories
Blake and the ‘92 version of Porter is another eye-opener. I don’t expect Steve to progress like Terry did, but they both were/are good “sidekicks” to playmaking 2 guards
by two4larue on Feb 4, 2009 2:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you Mr. Pelton.
This is interesting stuff.
Current Titles:
Official Blazer's Edge Poet Co-Laureate for the 2008-2009 Season
Official Blazer's Edge Ambassador to the Milwaukee Bucks
Unofficial Blazer's Edge Grammar Magister
Unofficial Blazer's Edge Grumpy Ol' Curmudgeon
Chaplain of the Jarrett Jack Jump-Pass Memorial Fanclub
by T Darkstar on Feb 4, 2009 10:55 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks Kevin
Very interesting.
Boomshakalaka
by jksnake99 on Feb 4, 2009 10:59 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Interesting
I don’t know that I’d put much weight into this, but it is interesting.
Aldridge doesn’t really seem right to me. Looking at that the list, the Big three just became the big 2. I believe Aldridge can be and should be better than that. Then again, if he never improves on defense and he never learns to attack, then maybe the list is accurate.
The goal is not to be better, the goal is to be the best.
by ratbastird on Feb 4, 2009 11:00 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Oh oh, some real busts on the LaMarcus list
Although some of them not due to their skills but to other problems in their life, foremost Vin Baker.
What made me pause are Weatherspoon and Calvin Natt on that list. Weren’t that pretty physical bruising players later in their career? Maybe too small to rebound at 6’6’’?
by Norsktroll on Feb 4, 2009 11:03 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Weatherspoon & Baker
I think people downplay just how effective both of these players were in their early 20s. Before Baker ruined his career with the bottle, he was a guy who flirted with 20/10 annually (and did it one time, barely missed another).
Weatherspoon averaged a double-double at 23, and slowly dropped off after that. IIRC, a lot of it was due to the fact that he carried around a lot weight, especially later in his career.
I don’t mind the LA list at all.
by Scorcho on Feb 4, 2009 11:17 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Vin Baker was awesome, dude.
People forget that.
by robrun2 on Feb 4, 2009 11:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Clarence Weatherspoon was a homeless man's Charles Barkely early in his career, which allowed ...
him to put up some solid, albeit empty stats during his tenure with the Philadelphia 76ers. Stylistically, though, Weatherspoon is altogether different from LaMarcus Aldridge. From a stylistic standpoint, the same goes for a few other guys on that list — such as Dominique Wilkins, Keith Van Horn, Calvin Natt, and Xavier McDaniel — although regardless of that the inclusion of Charles Smith is damning stuff.
by AK1984 on Feb 4, 2009 11:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I believe Pelton's analysis compares similarity of production ...
… not style of play. When you are number crunching, it shouldn’t matter if the player in question is known as a bruiser or a finesse player if they end up averaging the same number of points, rebounds, assists, etc. The formula doesn’t watch video, it just processes the numeric input.
hakkaa päälle !
by timg56 on Feb 4, 2009 12:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
Incredible stuff, yet again. The LMA stuff is saddening, though. I would like to see where David West projected to be at 23, though, as he wasn’t that great, and has become a two-time all-star.
So, after this whole process, we have the final results: Rudy, Travis, Steve, and Channing all are very similar to former players. It seems that guys like Nic, Przy, and Greg have less usual games.
Note: Tayshaun Prince isn’t on Nic’s list, which I believe is because Tayshaun wasn’t in the pros at 20. I’m pretty sure their rookie seasons are similar, though.
Kevin, thanks for all the great stuff… I think we’ll see a lot more with Nic, Jerryd, and Greg next year, as the sample sizes are small, but it’s still fun to look and see Joe Johnson at the top of Batum’s similarity list.
by Cablinasian on Feb 4, 2009 11:08 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Although I'm mighty disappointed that Juwan Howard didn't show up on LaMarcus Aldridge's list of ...
statistically comparable players, the inclusion of Charles Smith, Joe Smith, and Shareef Abdur-Rahim on it makes me feel way more secure with my position. The sight of Vin Baker’s name, however, just causes me to wince in pain, as those aren’t fond memories that I’ve got of him.
by AK1984 on Feb 4, 2009 11:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Relax
Vin Baker at this time in his career, was pretty good.
Before he became a drunk.
by EngineerScotty on Feb 4, 2009 1:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Right now, I couldn't care less about LaMarcus Aldridge; that's 'cause these flashbacks are ...
my nightmarish memories of watching Vin Baker play like crap back when he was with the Seattle SuperSonics. Ah, those were bad times.
by AK1984 on Feb 4, 2009 1:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well....we have the same feelings about
Shawn Kemp
Larry (the new Johnnie Cochran) Miller: "If we get screwed, we're gonna sue"
by 92wastheyear on Feb 4, 2009 2:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
West and Baker are my top two subjective comps for Aldridge. West’s age-23 season was his rookie year, when he played relatively sparingly as a reserve. So Aldridge is ahead of him. The funny thing is West was a really good rebounder that year but not much of a scorer. Then he settled in as the offense-first forward we’ve come to know and watch in the All-Star Game every year.
On style: To a large extent I try to account for it, but you can’t get anything. On the other hand, I enjoy finding the occasional comparison I never would have considered (Charles Smith, in this case). It’s good to recognize we don’t know everything.
by kpelton on Feb 4, 2009 12:03 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
So...
Can we say he’s Vin Baker minus the booze? Because that’s a pretty good player as well…
It’s also interesting that when we dream about Portland’s ideal PG, we say “defensive minded 3-point shooter” then you see who Blake compares to and it’s Terry Porter and Lindsey Hunter, among others…
And I love that both Benoit Benjamin and Shawn Kemp show up on Oden’s list… DUNKS.
"Now, you take a bobcat or a Jayhawk. You know they'll run if you give 'em the chance. But when one don't run, why, you shoot him and shoot him quick. Raef's my dog, Pa. I've gotta do what's right..." Old Yeller (1957)
by RoyGoesTheDynamite on Feb 4, 2009 12:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
dudes chill out...
just because these people compare to lamrcus doesnt mean they ARE lamarcus. lma’s a stud.
Say what you like about the tenets of National Socialism, Dude, at least it's an ethos.
by aryamehr on Feb 4, 2009 1:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
One big problem
Players need 4-5 years to truly develop into the players they are going to be. Almost NO ONE on the Portland roster is there yet. Outlaw/Blake/Przy… that’s about it.
We need KP2 back here next year and the year after to run these for us again so we can see our guys once they’ve developed their games a bit more. :-)
by Zaig on Feb 4, 2009 11:09 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Another problem
is that this system only goes by age, which is good, except for in the case of players coming into the league at different times. Is Rudy like Ginobili at 23? We just don’t know, as Ginobili’s rookie season was at age 25. Same for Tayshaun and Nicolas, as they came in at different ages.
Greg and other centers, etc.
Sure, we’ll know more in a few years, but at that point, we won’t need projections. We’ll know what the players are actually capable of, not what they could be capable of.
by Cablinasian on Feb 4, 2009 11:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
not sure why we went down for awhile there but i think we’re back
by Ben. on Feb 4, 2009 12:00 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Batuuuuuum-shakalaka...
Point guard is the only position that doesn’t feature a future hall of famer…
"Now, you take a bobcat or a Jayhawk. You know they'll run if you give 'em the chance. But when one don't run, why, you shoot him and shoot him quick. Raef's my dog, Pa. I've gotta do what's right..." Old Yeller (1957)
by RoyGoesTheDynamite on Feb 4, 2009 12:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
just swap blake for sergio and it’s a perfect 5 for 5 :)
by Ben. on Feb 4, 2009 12:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Say three times "Sergio Rodriguez, Hall of Famer" and try not to grin or laugh
by Norsktroll on Feb 4, 2009 12:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
im working hard to shake off this bayless homer tag…. work with me, norsk
by Ben. on Feb 4, 2009 12:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Done
Too bad that Jason Williams didn’t enter the league until he was 23. Another player we have to wait a year more to see if they compare.
by Norsktroll on Feb 4, 2009 12:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
J-Will
Was a better three-point shooter… Or at least he had more confidence…
Basic logic says…
Sergio = Next Gary Payton
Gary Payton > Monta Ellis
Jerryd Bayless = Monta Ellis
Sergio > Monta Ellis
And thus ends the Bayless v. Sergio argument… hahahahaha
"Now, you take a bobcat or a Jayhawk. You know they'll run if you give 'em the chance. But when one don't run, why, you shoot him and shoot him quick. Raef's my dog, Pa. I've gotta do what's right..." Old Yeller (1957)
by RoyGoesTheDynamite on Feb 4, 2009 1:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
huh...
my logic goes:
bayless’s intensity = MJ
Sergio = Gary Payton
If I remember correctly the battle between the two was beyond Epic.
so the argument continues!! lulz.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fj8DgWnbVng&feature=bz303
MVP *** MVP *** MVP
I've never scored more than 38 ..... not even in Little League.
by Portland89 on Feb 4, 2009 1:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If Gary was "The Glove", maybe Sergio could become "The Mitten"
by Norsktroll on Feb 4, 2009 1:37 PM PST up reply actions 8 recs
WHY IS THIS NOT GREEN?!
This might be the funniest thing I have read in years.
by Cablinasian on Feb 4, 2009 2:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Blame Spain!
He plays bullfighter defense… How can you say that’s not intense?
"Now, you take a bobcat or a Jayhawk. You know they'll run if you give 'em the chance. But when one don't run, why, you shoot him and shoot him quick. Raef's my dog, Pa. I've gotta do what's right..." Old Yeller (1957)
by RoyGoesTheDynamite on Feb 4, 2009 2:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
But if Sergio went to Chicago...
He could lead “the running of the Bulls”
(Thank you all and good night.! Don’t forget to tip your waitress.)
by two4larue on Feb 4, 2009 8:15 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
that is funny!!
Since when do we need to ponder to froth? - jscot
by 22baylor on Feb 4, 2009 3:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
thank you good sir
Ben can you see if its possible to get an interview with Kevin at the end of the season and see how we have progressed? I imagine with half a season more data, the young kids would have more accurate data right?
I'm afraid Chiekh Samb's kids are going to be born ducking
by GreatOden'sRaven on Feb 4, 2009 12:37 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
if i remember i’ll try to check in again after the season. the ones most likely to be affected are the four rookies and maybe sergio.
aldridge, roy, blake, przybilla, outlaw, frye probably won’t change significantly over the next 40ish games.
by Ben. on Feb 4, 2009 12:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
right but those arent gonna be the ones that keep us talking
:)
we know who they are
I'm afraid Chiekh Samb's kids are going to be born ducking
by GreatOden'sRaven on Feb 4, 2009 12:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Roy
I think Roy is destined to have a better career than everyone on his list except K*be, and possibly Clyde. Personally, I’d bet on him surpassing Clyde.
And the other guys on that list are now scrubs. Dantley? Agguire? Moncrieft? Those guys has fantastic careers.
You gotta like the Batum list, and not like the Aldridge one. The Oden one I don’t think is all that valid due the reasons stated.
Rule #1 of nitpicking is to get it right.
by douglast on Feb 4, 2009 12:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Brandon Roy could benefit from learning a certain skill from Sidney Moncrief, with that being defense.
by AK1984 on Feb 4, 2009 12:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah love broy's list
old school playas
Say what you like about the tenets of National Socialism, Dude, at least it's an ethos.
by aryamehr on Feb 4, 2009 1:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
no Walt "Clyde" Frazier, though
or Oscar Robertson
by two4larue on Feb 4, 2009 3:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
They were before the 3-point era
Since when do we need to ponder to froth? - jscot
by 22baylor on Feb 4, 2009 3:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This info is fantastic,,Thank you
I try to help with everything," Fernandez said. "If the coach says go rebound, I go rebound. I work for the team.
""If I'm playing this game to get media and attention, I shouldn't be here," Aldridge said. "I'm here to play basketball, and do what I can do to help this team win."
by Dragonage on Feb 4, 2009 12:52 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Much thanks KP2!
While past performance does not GUARANTEE future results, it is a might fine predictor. I really appreciate the insight you;ve provided, as well as the basis for many, many future discussion here at BE.
by antediluvian on Feb 4, 2009 1:02 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Very NICE
but the true story in the past day is… The SPURS TANKING last night, and not sending out any of the THERE BIG 3…against the Nuggets..
Whats up with that crap??
"Awesome! Totally awesome! All right, Hamilton!"
by B-ROYalty on Feb 4, 2009 1:23 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Now we know
how KP does it on draft day, he’s cloned KP2’s “stuff” and modified it a bit.
by DucRider on Feb 4, 2009 1:39 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
You know what I think is fun?
Porter on Blake’s list, and Drexler on Roy’s list.
Rip City, baby.
by LicketyBrindle on Feb 5, 2009 10:44 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
that's cool!
Since when do we need to ponder to froth? - jscot
by 22baylor on Feb 6, 2009 10:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

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