Talking myself into sitting tight
by BrailleTaser on Feb 3, 2009 8:58 PM PST
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PrintI have generally been thinking about the RLEC contract (the 'super-expiring' asset) in terms of what it can bring back at the trade deadline, but tonight I thought I would step through a possible scenario if we just sit tight. So, suppose we sit tight, let the contract fall off the books. I'm going to make (and justify) three assumptions of what would happen in the off season in such a scenario: 1) we relinquish the rights to restricted FAs Frye and Diogu, making them unrestricted FAs; 2) we pick up the team option on Outlaw; and 3) we don't pick up the team option on Blake, making him an unrestricted FA. (Hear me out, Blake fans, the plan doesn't necessarily mean losing Blake, though it is a risk.) Now, to justify the assumptions: 1) Frye and Diogu are out of the rotation and at this point have fairly limited value for the team, certainly the around 9M cap hold required for each to keep them as RFAs is not justified; 2) The 3.6M of Travis' option is less than his perceived value in the league, hence we would run a real risk of losing him to free agency if he becomes unrestricted; 3) Steve Blake is a big picture guy, who loves the organization and the town and whose first choice would be to come back. The mid-level exception would be a raise for him, so we would have plenty of room to sign him to a new, comfortable contract after any other free agent signings have been completed, with relatively limited risk that he would quickly bolt for another club. There is risk of losing Blake with this scenario, but it is, I believe, a moderate risk.
Okay, so under these assumptions, here's what our roster (for salary cap purposes) would be:
Joel Przybilla (6,857,725), Greg Oden (5,361,240), LaMarcus Aldridge (5,844,827), Travis Outlaw (3,600,000), Nicolas Batum (1,118,760), Martell Webster (4,319,654), Brandon Roy (3,910,816), Rudy Fernandez (1,165,320), Jerrod Bayless (2,143,080), Sergio Rodriguez (1,576,696), and Darius Miles (9,000,000). Further, we need to place a cap hold for Koponen and Freeland, which is (together) another 1,681,600.
This leaves a total of 46,579,718. Even if the salary cap doesn't rise, that gives us around 12M in cap space to sign a free agent or work through a jointly advantageous sign and trade, which is roughly the size of the LaFrentz contract anyhow. We then would be able to re-sign Blake if so desired, up to whatever is allowed under the CBA. Further, we have a tremendous number of young players if we want to then consolidate talent, either in that sign and trade, or perhaps on draft day.
This little exercise makes me quite comfortable with sitting tight and letting RLEC fall off the books -- the team reserves flexibility for improving the team in the off season, after having seen how things fall out through the rest of this season and the playoffs. Of course, if the perfect deal falls in their laps, pull the trigger, but having seen all of the tortuous trades that folks have been pitching, I'm just not seeing such a deal at this time, at least none that I believe the other team would entertain. Clearly broken teams like the Bulls will actually be easier trade partners at that time than they are now.
Anyhow, I offer this up as therapy for the trade deadline junkies. We may just have another roller-coaster draft day in our future! I think I've talked myself into being happy sitting tight. The one sticking point might be the risk of losing Blake, but I truly believe that he's 'on-board' enough with folks here that he and his agent would understand the rationale and play ball with the Blazers.
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Good analysis - but can you finish the thought with an idea of who we would pursue with $12M in cap
Put me in the camp of the trade deadline junkies – I think the Blazers will get more out of a trade than pursuing the open free agency market.
by Mad Matt the Road Warrior on Feb 3, 2009 9:06 PM PST reply actions
Sure how about David Lee?
I think 12M is too rich for the Knicks, they’d be scared at any threat that a team would offer him that amount and they’d then have to either swallow it or let him leave for nothing. At that point, we could arrange a sign-and-trade at 10M (which he’s likely to fetch), and we don’t have to send back equivalent salary, maybe just Travis and Sergio, which probably isn’t equal value, but better than getting nothing if we sign him outright. Or, maybe Travis and Sergio for Luol Deng, straight up — he’ll be at around 10M, but again they don’t have to take back the same value, they get an athletic 3/4 and a backup PG, while getting out from under a much longer term contract. These are the sorts of options that will open up. I’m not specifically advocating for those particular individuals (though they seem to be among the better fits in the league for us), just that the cap space would allow for such trades to occur.
You can't be below the cap AND use the MLE
If you are below the cap, you relinquish the ability to use the MLE for the ENTIRE season, unless you go over the cap by signing your own free agents.
In other words, if we used any cap space at all to sign an FA instead of resigning our guys, we wouldn’t get the MLE for that season, which is designed in the CBA to make the salary cap exactly that: a cap.
If we let Blake go we’re either signing him for less than his option, or letting him go for good. That’s our only options if we’re under the cap.
by JordanLeDoux on Feb 3, 2009 9:28 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
I see
but if we sign Blake, that puts us around 8M under the cap, which would still allow us some real sign-and-trade flexibility — for example, the Lee and Deng trades I suggested above would be fine at 8M under the cap.
exactly
which is the exact scenario that has been discussed on this site several times over since the Miles contract went back on the books.
Interesting post, but there is no new ground here.
Rule #1 of nitpicking is to get it right.
just reread my own post
it comes off unduly harsh, so I apologize for that. Not exactly my intent.
Rule #1 of nitpicking is to get it right.
I sort of disagree.
We have seen a lot of posts on why we need to trade or who we should trade for, and some (myself included) have responded that there are valid reasons to stand pat and not trading Raef (or anyone else) does not equate to the Blazer’s losing out, but I do not recall seeing someone laying out the reasons for standing pat quite as clearly as braille.
hakkaa päälle !
the scenario
that he posits is not putting a QO on Ike and Frye, keeping Outlaw and Blake, and using the 8 million to swing an unbalanced summer trade.
That scenario has been discussed on this site regularly in the past three weeks. I should know, because I personally suggest doing just that in almost every trade thread that comes along and gets any significant response.
Like I said, he framed the post quite nicely, and credit for that. But there is no new ground being covered.
Rule #1 of nitpicking is to get it right.
THe problem is that we would no longer hold the Bird rights to Blake and Outlaw.
That is, if I remember correctly. If we renounce them, we MUST use the capspace to resign them if we are going to. Renouncing them makes them free agents without the advantages of them being our free agents. As cheap as they are, if you want them on the team you absolutely do not renounce them if capspace is the plan. It would simply eat into the capspace, because they will certainly be worth more than their current contracts.
Other than that, renouncing Frye and Diogu as well as letting LaFrentz expire is not a bad plan.
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Lee
I’m against spending that much on a backup PF
exactly
Why does every trade involve talent < our big three, but a contract close to the sum of all three? I dont get it and I don;t see a trade. KP needs time to figure out who to keep and how to resign Roy, LMA and GO….not to mention Bayless ad Rudy down the road
so what you're saying is
that next year our highest paid player (by 2+Million dollars) will be…..darius miles.
That’s baffling in so many ways.
Well, we have signed Przybilla/Blake/Outlaw/Webster to reasonable contracts. BRoy/LMA/GOden will likely each make more than $9m/year once their rookie deals run out.
But to put it in perspective… this year’s highest paid players are Steve Francis, Raef LaFrentz and Darius Miles.
by danielfarrell on Feb 4, 2009 7:07 AM PST up reply actions
RLEC
I agree, let it come off the books. Trade deadline deals make me nervous. Your never sure if youre getting a guy who wants to be here. Wait until the summer and get someone who wants to be here. And for those of you who think Portland is not a FA destination. If a player wants to win, they will see our core group of players and will want to come. This team is young, talented, and rising fast. If they want to have a shot at being a part of something special, Portland will be hard to say no too.
We can use the cap money...
on draft day to finagle RICKY RUBIO!!!!!
"I don’t have the first clue who he is talking about, because all I worry about is Jerome." – Jerome James, on comments by coach Nate McMillan about Seattle SuperSonics players being selfish.
From what I remember hearing (sorry no link) Rubio is waiting till 2010 to enter the draft
Due to his contract with DKV. He is learning from Rudy’s mistake (which turned out to be awesome for the blazers)
This is what Lucas would do. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0aPkIE2qK0
by 123_G.O._RipCity on Feb 4, 2009 1:39 AM PST up reply actions
He could still be in the 09 draft, but not come over until his contract is up to avoid having to pay the buyout
Hard to say what he will really do.
The problem with that is that teams will likely not take him in the lottery if they have to wait for him. That is the Rudy mistake that was mentioned. The rookie salary scale would hurt him in that scenario.
by danielfarrell on Feb 4, 2009 7:09 AM PST up reply actions
I'm glad people are starting to see the light on this one
Immediately after the Miles situation unfolded people were being very reactionary. Although the advantages of trading were slightly increased, it didn’t make it our best option.
The option people only seem to talk about after much analysis is in waiting for next seasons trade deadline. 10 million dollars in cap space next February is worth more than RLEC is worth right now. We’ll also have a better idea of what we have and what we need a year from now. There is no reason for a hurried decision. Sit tight, wait on someone to offer you something you can’t refuse. If that isn’t there, love what you’ve got, and nail your 1st round pick (DeJuan Blair, Darren Collison, Austin Daye, Stephen Curry, Patrick Patterson).
by as11osu on Feb 3, 2009 11:08 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
I wanted to trade RLEC more when we didn't have Miles on the books.
I thought we could add a guy like Hinrich and still have the Cap room to sign a guy like Varejao. Now we have to take our pick on one or the other.
I am not saying those are the only players we would be targeting they are just two guys that are very attainable and could be very prosperous here.
This is what Lucas would do. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0aPkIE2qK0
by 123_G.O._RipCity on Feb 4, 2009 1:42 AM PST up reply actions
Also Stephen Curry will be gone by the time our pick comes around
My magic eight ball tells me we are skiping out on the lottery this year. And hopefully the next 18 to 25 years after this.
This is what Lucas would do. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0aPkIE2qK0
by 123_G.O._RipCity on Feb 4, 2009 1:45 AM PST up reply actions
Agreed
If we pick #18-#20ish, I bet one of those 5 guys’d still be on the board though. All would bring something very nice to this team.
Put our picks up on auction at ebay.
Starting price at $1 mil. Copy cats owners and GMs would want to follow our foot steps to better their teams.
KP will make the right decision. He will use RLEC as a POSSIBLE trade chip.
If the right deal comes ( would probably have to obviously make us better ) I’m sure KP will pull he trigger. But I trust him not to make a trade just for the sake of it. RLEC is almost as valuable in the long term plans if it just comes off the books as it is in a trade.
Mike Rice said it best
Portland has to make a move by the trade deadline. Noway we can hang on to Sergio and Bayless for the remainder of the season, Bayless has earned a spot in the rotation and Sergio will implode if his minutes get cut. Rice also said that the fa class this summer is not worth persueing. I agree it has pieces but nothing that is going make a fan say “wow” about.
Trade rlec and package players we have no intention as to keeping and make a blockbuster deal. Sheridan thinks we should persue VC he also thinks we would just hand over Rudi in the deal for him. East coast guys have no buisness speculating on teams they dont follow. No VC we can do much better.
I try to help with everything," Fernandez said. "If the coach says go rebound, I go rebound. I work for the team.
""If I'm playing this game to get media and attention, I shouldn't be here," Aldridge said. "I'm here to play basketball, and do what I can do to help this team win."
I like Mike Rice as a game comentator.
But I don’t believe his is the last word on what Portland needs to do. Sounds like an opinion to me. If Rice was really adpt at running a team and making personel decisions, he’d be in the front office, not in front of the mic.
hakkaa päälle !
i disagree
i think we can easily finish off the season and playoffs with all 3 players, they’ve shown they are team guys who can make it work.
come offseason, one of them has to go, yes. But it doesn’t have to happen now.
Rule #1 of nitpicking is to get it right.
No Urgency
I like this post, if only because I don’t see anyone available that would be that much of an upgrade, particularly if you look at the downside. We need money to keep our core, and we have 11 players – including Webster (but not Frye or Diogu), to keep developing. This includes 4 rookies, 4 third year players, and Blake, Outlaw and Pryz. Those who say we “have” to do a deal are dead wrong. Oden, Batum, Bayless and Fernandez will develop over the next two years. After that, we’ll be entering a run when we could contend. Players like VC, Nash, Kidd etc. don’t fit that window.
Last summer we saw some pretty surprising deals involving players like Camby, Brand, Maggette, Davis, etc. etc. And this summer we may see the same thing. A number of player’s will be in the same position that Frye and Diogu are in. Their teams will have to sign them, release them, or trade them – or face cap holds going in 2010. That often makes for better trade options than what we see today.
The bottom line is pretty simple. We don’t need a "rent-a-player at SF of PG – we need someone who will be here for a championship run. The problem with rent-a-players is that they cost a lot, undermine our ability to sign our other players, and also hog the minutes we need to develop the players we have. And, never forget that if you succumb to a big name rent a player, you limit your ability to trade later to a handful of teams that think they can contend now. The rest aren’t interested.
The Blazers have a very good roster right now. In a year, it will look even better. Young players are like wine, the more they age, the more value they have. Bayless is worth more to other teams today – given the last 9 games – than he was before those last 9 games. Sergio is worth more this year – than last. Batum – definitely – is worth a lot more today than that 26 pick we got him for in the draft.
We can wait. It’s many of those other teams that have the problem. Toronto’s running around trying to keep Bosh. Cleveland wants to keep Lebron. Toronto, Indiana, Chicago, Washington, Charlotte, Minnesota, Oklahoma, San Diego, Sacramento, and Memphis are the ones who need to improve. And other’s, like Phoenix and Dallas are getting old.
KP can afford to be patient – and so can we.
by Eben Calder on Feb 4, 2009 6:35 AM PST reply actions 4 recs
Rec'd
Best post on this subject. Let the souffle bake and walk softly so it doesn’t fall.
Open invitation: all you who are self-proclaimed ping pong experts. If you think you can beat me - or if you just want to see how it's really played: cdd37@yahoo.com. This means you, too, Jerryd.
Rec to both you and braille.
I could add shear genius, but that would be due to your thinking like I do.
There are far more reasons not to make a trade, then there are for making one. We have a team whose major issues to address are (in order of importance)
1) how do we distribute minutes among three good PG’s
2) who is going to be our third string center – (i’m putting in a plug for Shav here)
3) do we need a bruising type as a backup power forward – (or do we just go with the mismatches that Travis creates playing the 4)
That is really not what I call a daunting list of problems to resolve.
hakkaa päälle !
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