Kevin Pelton's Stat Bomb For Your Blazer Brain
by Ben Golliver on Feb 3, 2009 5:36 PM PST
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You guys should know KP2 by now, but if not, Kevin Pelton is one of the kinky young minds behind Basketball Prospectus. I recently realized he also runs the best-named WNBA blog in the history of ever.
KP2 does a lot of complicated things like adding, subtracting and, especially, dividing numbers to help provide insight into what is really happening when 10 large men run around in a rectangle and put a sphere through a ring. He calls this mathematics "APBRmetrics" and recently I asked for his help to put these stats to work for Blazers fans.
KP2, really nice guy that he is, happily obliged. He went all out here and I hope you enjoy his work. And guess what? He will be attending Free Darko night! So if you're a stat nut you will be able to say hello and maybe even get your TI-86 graphing calculator autographed.
What is Similarity?
KP2 used to work for the Sonics and we share an affinity for Kevin Durant. Recently, he casually mentioned in a facebook message that KD's "similarity" list includes Kobe Bryant near the very top. KEVIN DURANT IS GOING TO BE THE NEXT KOBE... Well, no, not exactly. After I took a shower to cool down, I asked him to explain "similarity" to me.
Similarity, officially, is a comparative rating (on a 1 to 100 scale) between any two players from NBA history (1979-1980 on -- since the advent of the 3 point line -- and with a minimum of 250 minutes played). For reference, KP2 says, "two identical players would score a similarity of 100. In practice, a score of 98 is virtually identical, 95 is very similar and anything below 90 is getting pretty sketchy."
Similarity is a tantalizing piece to add to our own qualitative basketball observations, especially for younger players. For Blazers fans, it can add a new dimension to our understanding of our ridiculously young roster... sure, Jerryd Bayless looks a lot like Monta Ellis when he came into the league, but what do the numbers say? How similar, exactly, are the two players? Is there anyone more similar to JB than Monta? That's the type of question that similarity aims to answer.
Method
So what does "similarity" take into acccount? KP2 writes...
I use 13 factors, all standardized for league, to determine player similarity:
- Height
- Weight
- Minutes per game
- "Shoot" rating (based on 3P%, 3PM/Min and FT%)
- Two-point percentage
- "Inside" rating (FTA-3PA)/Possessions
- Usage rate
- Rebound percentage
- Assist percentage
- Steal percentage
- Block percentage
- Turnover percentage
- Per-minute Win % Rating
For a full glossary of his terminology, go here.
Lost by all the percentages, rates, and ratings? Don't give up...
The main idea (for me) behind "similarity" is to froth at the mouth about the potential of young players. If you don't care about digging into how the math was derived, do what I did:
- 1. Read the names...
- 2. Ponder...
- 3. Commence frothing!
KP2 says... Outlaw has the highest similarity scores on the team, which is noteworthy in that his skillset is fairly common. What does set Outlaw apart from many of these players is his ability to play power forward; guys that moved to become small fours like Lewis and Marshall generally tended to develop better. Marshall was a better rebounder, but he's a pretty good role model.
Ben says... What's funny is that no one on this list is nearly as polarizing as Outlaw except for Rashard, and that's because he signed for A-Rod money. I wonder if back in the day Louis Orr had an "AnnTheFan" that went around defending his honor via USPS or telephone. The telephone was invented in 1983, right?
KP2 says... Przybilla comes out with lower similarity scores because of his off-the-charts two-point percentage. Przybilla is making twos at a rate 4.1 standard deviations above league average. The highest standardized two-point percentage for any player with at least 1,000 minutes played dating back to 1979-80 is West, who was +3.6 the previous season.
Ben says... Clearly this doesn't account for schoolgirl crushes because Przybilla dominates the rest of this list in that category. Although seeing Kermit Washington's name reminds me of that great vignette from "Breaks of the Game" where Halberstam reveals that Kermit was so shy around his future wife that they would silently read books together in his dorm room and call that a date.
KP2 says... Not exactly a list I'd be in a rush to distribute if I was Frye's agent, although Doleac did get a four-year deal a year later as a free agent and Scalabrine got a very nice contract from the Celtics.
Ben says... I did my own math on Channing and discovered that his ratio of "fan love" to "actual production" is the highest EVER in team history. Wait... have I used that one before?
KP2 says... While Fernandez has a long ways to go to reach Miller's heights, you can certainly see the similarity in terms of their ability to shoot from distance and get free away from the ball. Even their builds are closely matched. The rest of the group generally is fairly predictable in terms of shooters with some size and ballhandling ability. Nash is an oddball, but remember he was a three-point specialist during his first stint in Phoenix who played a lot of shooting guard alongside Jason Kidd.
Ben says... Do you think Rudy has ever tasted bad gazpacho and done the Reggie Miller both hands on his neck thing in disgust towards the chef? I would guess yes.
KP2 says... There's not much to take from this list given Bayless' limited minutes and the fact that he hasn't shot the ball nearly as well as he is capable of doing.
Ben says... Jerryd Bayless: so he's either an unarmed Telfair, an STD-free Wagner, or a Range Rover-driving Ellis. Yeah, I'm cool with that.
KP2 says... Um, really? Point guards often come out with a wide range of comparables because they tend to develop more slowly than other positions. Rodriguez's group takes this to another level; a couple of Hall of Famers at the top, then a host of journeymen down a little lower. Supporters and critics can both find something to take from this list.
Ben says... I saved the most contentious, and possibly most revealing (?) results for last. A great reminder of how young (and little-used) Sergio still is and how efficient he has been passing the rock in short minutes.
Your Turn
Alright, there you have it. Where did KP2 hit the nail on the head? Which rankings are off the mark? Which names were you surprised to see? Which names were you surprised NOT to see? Are the numbers lying? Sound off please.
Check back tomorrow for the starting five!
-- Ben (benjamin.golliver@gmail.com)
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Comments
why would we want to trade off
The 1997 Dallas version of Michael Finley?
The 1998 Warriors version of Donyell Marshall? – Elgin
You don't have to wear a clock around your neck to know what time it is at Bob's. Meals cooked with real religious fervor! Thousands of empty seats in the back, for the lonely set. At Bob's you don't have to leave your loved one out in the street - your car is as welcome as you are! - Firesign Theatre.
you're such a tease Ben
good stuff though keep it coming.
"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08
Martell = Grant Hill
you can only go based on height and weight and the fact that they were both injured and didn’t play any games.
by Bust a Bucket on Feb 3, 2009 6:06 PM PST up reply actions
funny
You don't have to wear a clock around your neck to know what time it is at Bob's. Meals cooked with real religious fervor! Thousands of empty seats in the back, for the lonely set. At Bob's you don't have to leave your loved one out in the street - your car is as welcome as you are! - Firesign Theatre.
ah we didn’t do marty, nor shav, nor ike, nor raef
maybe i can coax him into a 3rd round (ball hype it up and we’ll see what happens!)
Yeah... his shot chart would draw comparisons to... I dunno... Ricky Davis?
by Cablinasian on Feb 3, 2009 8:05 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
That IS funny, I have to admit
Although Martell wouldn’t be yucking it up to see it.
"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla
I didn't post it maliciously
Martell is one of my favorite players on the team and it sucks that he hasn’t been able to play yet… just found it amusing to base a statistical analysis off the “small” sample size of Martell’s ‘08-’09 campaign.
this should be done for bloggers too
some useful stats:
- of posts a day
how long have they lived in mothers basement (j/k)
paleness - of guest bloggers/interviews
- of TV watching hours
- of t-shirts sold
the list can go on. help me out bedgers
Woof
by Charles Barkley McLovin on Feb 3, 2009 6:06 PM PST reply actions
Defense doesn't seem to factor in
unless it’s implicit in something like the per-minute win % rating.
That said, I do see similarities in Sergio’s and Stockton’s games, and I am/was a fan of both players. I think Sergio could start to rack up the steals in a Stockton-like manner if he could get significant regular playing time.
I can see the Rudy-Miller comparison, too, but the comparisons didn’t seem as valid for any of the other players.
Interesting ….
I think Sergio could start to rack up the steals in a Stockton-like manner if he could get significant regular playing time.
and, you know, a guy like Karl Malone to run the pick and roll with.
Stockton’s assist total = most overrated achievement in pro basketball.
(I hated those Jazz teams. So. Much.)
by LicketyBrindle on Feb 3, 2009 7:27 PM PST up reply actions
I hated the jazz then
but to belittle Stockton’s achievements is a bit of sour grapes.
Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.
i was about to say that
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
ok. I was young. My memory is undoubtedly tainted.
But I never remember – ever – seeing Stockton make a great pass, a seeing-eye pass, a thread the needle pass, a behind the back pass.
All my tainted memory recalls are a million and one pick and rolls. Anybody can make a pick and roll pass.
by LicketyBrindle on Feb 3, 2009 8:40 PM PST up reply actions
Not anyone
Can make it when the other team knows it is happening. Everyone knew the Jazz were great at pick and rolls, and no one stopped them, allowing Stockton to rack up the assists
agreed.
man, that was ALL THEY EVER RAN.
Those Jazz teams never had another offensive weapon. It was Stockton/Malone pick and roll, every. time. down. the. floor.
and they ran it all the way to the Finals.
it was so infuriating.
(it was also really, really good basketball.)
by LicketyBrindle on Feb 3, 2009 8:51 PM PST up reply actions
One of the most basic concepts in team sports ....
… is to concentrate on a basic play, perform it to perfection, then ram it down you opponent’s throat and batter him about the head and shoulders with it, until he can show he can stop it.
Vince Lombardi made it to the Super Bowl and the Hall of Fame doing that.
hakkaa päälle !
You were young
the miracle passes came down in huge avalanches from the evil Dr. Stockton. – Elgin
You don't have to wear a clock around your neck to know what time it is at Bob's. Meals cooked with real religious fervor! Thousands of empty seats in the back, for the lonely set. At Bob's you don't have to leave your loved one out in the street - your car is as welcome as you are! - Firesign Theatre.
Just to put it in perspective
7 of the top 10 assist season totals ever were by Stockton, 3 players have ever notched 1000 assists in a season (Stockton did it 7 times). He has 1.5 times as many career assists as the next guy on the list. Jason Kidd, who was the best pure point in the game for about the last 15 years, has 9800 assists, Stockton has 15800. Only 4 players have averaged more than 13 apg in a season (Stockton did it 5 times). He averaged under 3 TO for his career
He shot 51.5% from the field over 19 seasons as a PG, and over 38% from three, with a season a 45% for good measure. He has 700 more steals than the #2 guy on the list (MJ), and is the only person over 3000 career steals, only one person has more than 2500.
Almost every NBA team runs a ton of P&R (look at our offense), and no one puts up numbers like that. Stockton deserves to be on any shortlist of all-time PGs. Magic, Oscar, Isiah, Stockton. Maybe he’s not Magic or Oscar, but he’s definitely at the top of everyone else.
To break Stockton's record
Chris Paul would have to have 925 assists a year, after this year, for the next fourteen years.
ie,
he would have to play with Karl Malone, not Tyson Chandler.
by LicketyBrindle on Feb 3, 2009 8:49 PM PST up reply actions
If he continued to average 217 steals a game (last season's total)
It would take him about eleven and a half seasons, after this season.
He has a pretty good chance at that, to be sure.
dang!
217 steals a game!
does the other team even score in that game?
by LicketyBrindle on Feb 3, 2009 8:54 PM PST up reply actions
I think the better
comparison would be Paul and David West, not Chandler. Deron Williams and Boozer/Millsap is pretty good but they can’t win lately, which I don’t really mind.
hold up...
I only belittled the assist total achievement, not all the others. (and in so doing, I just realized that I read the quote wrong. It says Sergio could rack up steals like Stockton. For some reason I thought it said assists. My comment really makes no sense – Karl Malone surely had nothing to do with Stockton’s steals totals. My bad.)
and in belittling Stockton’s assist numbers, I conversely elevate Karl Malone’s value as a pick and roll partner.
I think Malone and Stockton ran the pick and roll at least 1.5 times better than anyone else ever has.
I still hated them.
And I still don’t think running an incredible pick and roll makes Stockton a great passer.
And I still don’t think Sergio could touch Stockton’s assists numbers without a guy like Karl Malone to run it with.
I don’t have a clue about his ability to put up Stockton-esque steals numbers.
I’m going to shut up now.
by LicketyBrindle on Feb 3, 2009 8:48 PM PST up reply actions
See, but I think that's my point, kinda
So much of Stockton’s achievements get belittled because he played with Karl Malone and they always ran the P&R. Look at all the other top guys on the career assist charts, and they had similarly good, or better team mates. Magic had Worthy and Kareem and played a more uptempo style. Mark Jackson had Ewing and Starks, and then Smits and Reggie Miller. But the Jazz just had Stockton and Malone, and everyone knew what was coming every time down the floor, and he still put up ridiculous numbers.
As far as Paul, while Malone may be better than West, I’ll take Chandler over Ostertag any day of the week, and when you factor in that he has reliable shooters like Peja and Posey (as compared to Hornacek and Russell), I’d say there isn’t a massive gulf in talent between those old sonics teams and the current hornet one, but it would be an absolutely ridiculous feat for CP to average 14 dimes over a season. And yet Stockton did it twice.
Plus, look at those mid to late 80’s jazz teams that he was doing this on. It’s literally only him and Malone (as good as I’m sure Thurl Bailey was). If every team can key in on two guys, and you can still run the best pick and roll ever despite but that doesn’t make you a great passer, I don’t know what would.
And for the record, I hated him when he played. Just come around to his side now that we don’t have to see him anymore.
you have a point...
If every team can key in on two guys, and you can still run the best pick and roll ever despite but that doesn’t make you a great passer, I don’t know what would.
granted. and maybe, probably, it took some great passes to get the ball to Malone when everyone and their grandmother knew that was where you were going.
But in my mind, a great passer sees four teammates on the floor, at all times, and finds the open one at the right time. Thus I think it’s harder to be a really effective PG when you have multiple guys who can score, who might be open and might be the right option (especially when you have to factor in rhythm and egos and “getting guys going”) than to be Stockton and just have to get the ball to Malone over and over.
but we can agree to disagree. this post is a strange place for this conversation.
by LicketyBrindle on Feb 3, 2009 11:29 PM PST up reply actions
It is a strange place
but I think the disagreement comes from the concept of court sense, which I see as separate from passing ability. Sure, they go hand in hand a lot, but I’d argue that a player like Magic had better court sense (seeing all four players, etc.), but maybe was a slightly worse passer.
I see passing ability as the ability to get the ball to a guy in a position where he can easily score. I remember Malone getting a whole ton of layups or wide open jump shots off those P&R’s, so it’s not like he was bailing Stockton out of bad passes, but more that Stockton was able to thread the needle to get him the ball where he needed it in spite of the extra attention. I don’t mean to denigrate Magic’s passing ability at all, just to highlight Stockton’s.
Another ridiculous Stockton stat to throw out. For his career, his assist % is over 50. That is, every other FG scored by the Jazz while he was on the court was off an assist from him for 19 years. When you factor in that the Blazers have frequently have games with fewer than half our FGs coming off assists, that’s just mindboggling to me.
"Assist % is over 50
That is, every other FG scored by the Jazz while he was on the court was off an assist from him for 19 years." Karl Malone didn’t make half the Jazz baskets. Malone was also a pretty good post-up player and made several unassisted baskets every game. All means that Stockton must have been regularly finding other players, and not just Malone.
The Jazz’s offensive schemes were really dangerous, not just the Stockton/Malone combo. They’re still running the same game, even though the players have changed and they have still been dangerous playoff contenders. Jazz run the basics with precision.
Dont think that Blazers are focusing on precision as their identity. The team is young, and the coach too, for that matter, is young — the Blazer’s offensive schemes are comparatively undeveloped and raw. It will take a long time for the Blazers to build up the infrastructure that would allow any PG to rack up Stockton like assist numbers.
Oooookay then
Malone averaged right around 30 ppg in his good years. Stockton dropped 14 dimes a game in his good years.
SO, either Stockton got 100% of his assists to Malone (with Malone hitting 2 FTs a game), OR Stockton got assists to other players too. (Orly?!?)
Malone shot a ton of FTs and he also did a lot of posting up on his own. I’d love to see how many assists Stockton averaged to Malone a year because it couldn’t be over 7, 8 at the very most.
In addition to Royster's points ....
… there is the simple matter of a one assist counting just as much as another.
A seeing eye pass through traffic or behind the back on the break or between the legs of the defender that leads to a bucket doesn’t count for any more than one gained running the pick and roll over and over.
hakkaa päälle !
It doesn’t take into account defense? Outlaw might be a bit like Granger on one end of the court, but it’s the other end that makes all the difference. Maybe Sergio is similar to Payton, but not on the defensive end which is at least half of what Payton is known for.
by Nick Van Excellent on Feb 3, 2009 6:09 PM PST reply actions
i think he’s taken defense into account as much as possible, given the stats that are available…
he used…
steal %
block %
rebound % (includes defensive rebounding)
and then win %
remember it’s not payton at the end of his career, it’s payton at the same age as sergio is now…
but yes, payton/stockton seems like the most obvious outlier at first glance…
the larger the sample size the more accurate the callibration…
my guess is that there’s just really no easy quantitative way to look at payton locking someone up
I see.
Yeah, it pretty much takes human eyeballs to gauge a players defensive value. These stats are super interesting.
by Nick Van Excellent on Feb 3, 2009 6:43 PM PST up reply actions
Defense
One other thing I’d add to that is using minutes per game can capture some element of defensive ability. For example, players with statistics similar to Bruce Bowen’s generally aren’t going to play a lot of minutes. So his high MPG tips the system off, so to speak, to his defensive ability.
If this has been done by KP1
thats probably why he’s not willing to trade Sergio yet. The highs are just too high to give up on yet.
they're actually twins, separated at birth...
you have to decide which one is the evil one.
by LicketyBrindle on Feb 3, 2009 7:28 PM PST up reply actions
both
have their streak.
Muahahahahaha – Elgin
You don't have to wear a clock around your neck to know what time it is at Bob's. Meals cooked with real religious fervor! Thousands of empty seats in the back, for the lonely set. At Bob's you don't have to leave your loved one out in the street - your car is as welcome as you are! - Firesign Theatre.
the only cool detail i heard about KP1’s work is that they can plug in players onto the roster and simulate 8200 games to see how the player affects wins/losses/etc.
I wonder if he ever sits at the computer
and just runs numbers on Blazersedge proposed trades to get a good laugh.
He would need a lot of time and computers to do that.
I’m sure he gets a good laugh from them anyway.
He probably pays
some beautiful assistant to run the numbers and come back to him with the funniest results.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
COOL
is he a nba2k9 fan or an nba live fan??
"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08
The simulation engine in Live is pretty sophisticated
He doesn’t have to play all the games, right :)
The simulation and analysis software for KP probably blows the doors off anyone else's
Although I have read that Mark Cuban loves his stats guys and programs as well.
whoo, Katy bar the door! - Maurice Lucas anticipating Greg Oden's development
they need to get a different program
if it told him to trade Harris and two firsts for Kidd, and then sign Diop to a upper MLE contract.
welcome
[had a feelin’ the Sergio homers would crawl out of the woodwork]
As the mutual fund companies say at the end of the commercial: Past performance does not necessarily indicate future results.
Sergio may end up like Stockton, or Pearl (necklace) Washington.
Remember how Nash wasn’t anything special early in his career and went on to win two MVPs? He would have charted poorly, but you’d rather have had him than a lot of others his age.
by Bust a Bucket on Feb 3, 2009 6:20 PM PST up reply actions
Would he have charted poorly?
He averaged 3/2 his rookie year (he was the same age as Sergio is now), but this stuff takes into account percentages and style, not raw numbers. He barely played any mintutes and his assist % was still decent for the minutes he played.
Like someone else said though, these can go either way.
1991 Payton and 1985 Stockton turned into lords of the game. 2004 Ridnour is… well a decent PG at best, bottom 10% starter at worst.
Rudy Fernandez = Reggie Miller? I think Reggie would agree.
I don’t remember WHICH crazy TNT game it was this season, it might have been the Rockets game, but Marv and Reggie were chatting near the end of the game and they were talking about Rudy and I believe that Marv made the Rudy/Reggie analogy and Reggie pretty much agreed with the assessment.
Anyone out there who remembers this and can add/verify?
And a little googlin...
…reveals that these Fernandez/Miller comparisons go back a bit. Check out this paragraph I pulled from an August 28th 2008 posting by Sean Meagher over on oregonlive.com:
Shootingwise, Rudy was phenomenal. He scores so quickly, in bunches. When he’s set, his quick pop and shoot is deadly, especially from behind the arc where he did plenty of damage last night. But it’s not only his shooting and quick scoring ability that makes him so deadly, is how well he moves without the ball as well. He never really stands still. Listening to Fox Sports Radio today, an analyst from NBATV likened Rudy to Reggie Miller and Rip Hamilton in that respect.
I think it’s pretty interesting that in the case of Rudy, the intuitive observations going back to the Olympics correlate with KP2’s statistical analysis.
I do remember that exchange but not the date
But Reggie would have looked like an egotist if he had disagreed.
whoo, Katy bar the door! - Maurice Lucas anticipating Greg Oden's development
Kind of like Gary Payton the other night...
saying no point guards played like him because nobody played defense?
egotistical like that?
by LicketyBrindle on Feb 3, 2009 9:00 PM PST up reply actions
correct like that?
Who defends like prime Payton nowadays? – Elgin
You don't have to wear a clock around your neck to know what time it is at Bob's. Meals cooked with real religious fervor! Thousands of empty seats in the back, for the lonely set. At Bob's you don't have to leave your loved one out in the street - your car is as welcome as you are! - Firesign Theatre.
You could use yours hand
Thus, nobody can defend like GP nowadays. You’ll notice that PGs scoring averages have gone up in recent times as well.
wow
Przybilla is making twos at a rate 4.1 standard deviations above league average.
i almost messed myself when i read that. For those that aren’t familiar with statistics, in a typical data set, about 99.87% of all data points (in this case, players) fall within 3 standard deviations plus or minus of the data set average. This means that Joel is THE BEST 2PT SHOOTER IN THE HISTORY OF THE GAME!!!. well…..almost….yeah.
pretty solid...
for a guy who couldn’t hit a jump shot if his life depended on it.
V.Gorilla is Mr. “Play to Your Strengths.”
now if some of that would rub off on Outlaw….
by LicketyBrindle on Feb 3, 2009 7:31 PM PST up reply actions
which "he"?
not that it matters – the answer is no.
(However, the day Joelzilla takes a contested 20 foot fadeaway – with time on the shot clock – is the day the earth stands still. )
by LicketyBrindle on Feb 3, 2009 7:33 PM PST up reply actions
I think Przy should secretly work on a twenty footer
then when he has the ball at the top of the key and Chandler or whoever backs off, Joel can stick one in their face. BAM! You got Pryzed.
according to his stat page,
joel has attempted 3 treys in his career, undoubtably all long range buzzer beater bombs (he missed them all).
KEVIN PRITCHARD: please, please, please, have joel run a pick and pop instead of a pick and roll and jack up a 3. just once. just one itsy bitsy possesion. it’ll make my year if it goes in. please.
that's what I'm calling for during the next garbage time
though you’re probably better off begging Nate than KP.
by LicketyBrindle on Feb 3, 2009 11:31 PM PST up reply actions
You are so greedy
I’d settle for a free throw line jumper.
If he made it, can you imagine the impact on scouting reports?
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
I rocked an HP-49gx
with memory cards in the expansion slots. Unfortunately, it got crushed in my suitcase a few years ago and they no longer make them.
not necessarily true
since those do numeric integration it is easy to just integrate to infinity, which the calculator would not be able to do unless it took an indefinite integral and then a limit.
Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.
thanks for doing this
I really enjoy the list, still not sure about the process but I enjoy the results. Could you take two players who’s careers are already over, say Stockton for instance. Do his list for one of his first years in the league. If the top person on his list is somebody whos career is also over, then you could compare the end results.
I don’t know if that made sense, but anyway, I can’t wait for tomorrows list! So glad KP2 did the work. Thanks again.
yeah don’t see why not? do you have particular players in mind? blazers great or just more to see generally how close the stats line up?
It would be cool to see how Jay Williams rated
He seemed like he was going to have such a promising career.
Baseball-Reference.com does that for baseball stats
it is pretty interesting.
Like if you look at Mickey Mantle, the most similar player to him for most years is Ken Griffey Jr.
But if you look at Griffey’s similarity scores, he is most like Frank Robinson.
who's worse right now?
Mariners or Seahawks?
by Bust a Bucket on Feb 3, 2009 10:55 PM PST up reply actions
the guys at USSMariner are geeking out
about the new GM and his systems. He could be the new KP.
by LicketyBrindle on Feb 3, 2009 11:32 PM PST up reply actions
I would be so pumped
if the new GM is an effective one.
I hope whoever plays first base for the Mariners is a good player. – Elgin
You don't have to wear a clock around your neck to know what time it is at Bob's. Meals cooked with real religious fervor! Thousands of empty seats in the back, for the lonely set. At Bob's you don't have to leave your loved one out in the street - your car is as welcome as you are! - Firesign Theatre.
Wow.
This makes my math-geek self go crazy. I am so fascinated by this process… is there an article somewhere that Pelton has written about how he derives the similarities? That would be an incredible read.
For me, the Rudy-Miller comparison is kind of crazy. I mean, Reggie Miller is one of the best shooters in NBA history. Could Rudy really get to that kind of level? It’s hard to see, but a 98%+ comparison is extremely hard to argue with. I just hope he can be a shadow of what Miller was.
Another thing that really jumps out at me is that Monta Ellis is definitely one of Bayless’ comparisons, which agrees with the eyeball test… Channing Frye has a great personality, which is good, since he isn’t great at basketball… Travis Outlaw is better than I thought… Sergio is either Payton good or Sura bad…
On a fun note, my former orthodontist was Michael Doleac’s dad. The man is absolutely humongous.
And
I’m kind of famous. I think Pelton replied to something I wrote here a few weeks ago (username of kpelton). Big time.
i'm kind of famous, too
my ex-girlfriend used to babysit Nate McMillan’s kids.
by LicketyBrindle on Feb 3, 2009 7:38 PM PST up reply actions
I've dated one of the same strippers Z-bo used to hang with (Hennesey)
"The match in Los Angeles is a good opportunity to begin to demonstrate that we want to make war." Rudy Fernández (translated)
My screen name is jscot
Cablinasian — 2
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When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
My cat just threw up in my bed
Cablinasian — 2
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Karma
that reminds me
Kevin Martin is nowhere to be seen on Rudy’s similarity chart. Interesting, as he was the player that was supposed to be a good comparison.
I just spent fifteen minutes comparing Reggie Miller to Rudy
This post has me addicted to basketball-reference.
dont quote me on this
but I am assuming that he is just doing this
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation
I base that on the stated values his using to say what “good” correlation is.
Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.
Bob Sura wasn't a bad player, although stylistically he's not a great comparison to Sergio Rodriguez.
Of all the dudes on that list who are statistically comparable to the 22-year-old Rodriguez, Luke Ridnour is the most similar to him regarding style of play. Apropos of Sura, though, the next oversized, unathletic Caucasian point guard in his mold will soon hit the NBA, with that being Floridian Nick Calathes.
Additionally, I like the comparisons of Joel Przybilla to Jeff Foster, Channing Frye to Malik Allen, and Jerryd Bayless to Monta Ellis.
On the other hand, though, Rudy Fernandez is a tougher case. Although I almost fully agree with the Brent Barry comparison, it’s doubtful that Fernandez could effectively run the point as well as him. Danny Ainge, Drazen Petrovic, and Rex Chapman are other guys who I find to be somewhat similar to Fernandez; yet, the differences in eras between them makes me wonder what could be lost in statistical translation.
All things considered, it’s pretty much established that Fernandez’s best-case scenario is Reggie Miller. That’s just a best-case scenario, though, so I wouldn’t take it to the bank.
So age is the key?
I would think that would make it difficult to compare some of the European players as many started playing professionally at a young age. Is Rudy really equal to an American his age?
Has KP2 done any work that involves the age a player was drafted? (I’m thinking of a totally different approach, not just factoring it into similarities.) Obviously LeBron out of high school does not equal Travis out of high school. But where do Travis, Martell, DMiles, Telfair, etc. fit on a continuum – and how does that compare to similar players with 4 yrs.of playing in college?
I’d love to see similarities to former Blazers. Who on our team is most similar to Lucas, Porter, et al.
Fascinating – I love stats like this.
oh, interesting.
That changes the way I look at this. So, in essence, you’re comparing Rudy’s rookie year, at age 23, to Reggie Miller’s second year, at age 23?
If Travis is Donyell Marshall, shoot me now
Rashard Lewis minus the huge money would be awesome. As would be Danny Granger, who while of similar physique seems to have a much more mature and versatile game. Can’t really see the similarities to Finley in his game, especially not in his later years in Dallas. On the other hand Travis is a lot younger than Mike at that time.
On the Portland Trail Blazers roster, Martell Webster seems to be the most similar to Michael Finley.
Travis Outlaw has a lot in common with Donyell Marshall, but Marshall was more proficient on the glass.
Can we find out how similar Kevin Martin and Manu Ginobili are to Rudy?
That’s usually named as his ceiling.
Ben said further up
that Martin had a very poor shooting year as a rookie, making any comparisons difficult. I seem to remember Ginobili struggling as a rook as well. It will be easier next year, and we’ll probably see those guys in the top ten.
Manu would be a better comparison if Rudy could dribble-drive to the basket.
What he does, he does well and he’ll have a long NBA career as long as he’s healthy. But if he can add a drive to the hoop, he’ll be much more consistent. Add a midrange shot and he’s a superstar.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
This is fascinating stuff IMO
It is a good thing that I cannot run these simulations myself otherwise most of my time in classes would be used doing this.
Imagine also if this could be used for college players and they were compared to past college players. Slightly more difficult to interpret since many great college players end up being not so great in the NBA, but still it would be incredibly interesting to analyze the data.
I'd take him
if he can breathe OK while his mouth is duct-taped shut. – Elgin
You don't have to wear a clock around your neck to know what time it is at Bob's. Meals cooked with real religious fervor! Thousands of empty seats in the back, for the lonely set. At Bob's you don't have to leave your loved one out in the street - your car is as welcome as you are! - Firesign Theatre.
Better put a paper bag over his head
His expressions annoy me too. Every play he drives and there is no whistle he looks like he pooped himself.
Yeah, but I think his expressions would be hilarious with duct tape over his mouth.
Jerryd Bayless has two emotions: Kill and Win.
"I want to put points on your face."
-Rudy to Pau Gasol
NorrisHopper30: "someone injure pubert jones"
by rockingharder on Feb 4, 2009 3:38 PM PST up reply actions
And he's got to wear the duct tape at all times.
On the aircraft, in the locker room. He can take it off when he gets to his car. – Elgin
Since when do we need to ponder to froth? - jscot
I wonder if some cloning specialists in South Korea
could take DNA from KP1 and KP2 and combine it and clone it as KP3 ???
Karl Paulson?
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
I'd like to know....
which players in the league are least similar to each other.
Unless it’s Manute Bol and Muggsy Bogues. That’s just boring.
And while you’re at it, who is most unlike Travis Outlaw?
Yao Ming.
Or maybe Dwight Howard.
Or my gandma.
Oh, no, wait she rebounds just as good as Outlaw.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
Those guys have higher usage rates, similar to Outlaw
I was thinking Ben Wallace would be a good one.
Grandma? Larry Johnson rebounded much better than Outlaw!
by danielfarrell on Feb 4, 2009 4:00 PM PST up reply actions
Same here.
Really, I just want whatever program runs this so I can make my own comparisons any time I want.
I’d also like to see the five least similar players to each of the current Blazers.
Jerryd Bayless has two emotions: Kill and Win.
"I want to put points on your face."
-Rudy to Pau Gasol
NorrisHopper30: "someone injure pubert jones"
by rockingharder on Feb 3, 2009 10:40 PM PST up reply actions
Oh, you WENT there!
Jerryd Bayless has two emotions: Kill and Win.
"I want to put points on your face."
-Rudy to Pau Gasol
NorrisHopper30: "someone injure pubert jones"
by rockingharder on Feb 4, 2009 3:39 PM PST up reply actions
Dang It Ben...
Now I gotta defend Christ Mills?
You make my life very hard.
"There is one way that cutting off trade with a partner could help you," Wolfers explains. "And that's if you're an idiot. If you used to trade a lot with one partner, and they always got the better of you because you don't know what you're doing, then you're right, you would be better off not trading with them any more."
by Outlaw is Rejector on Feb 3, 2009 11:22 PM PST reply actions
see what i did there?
"There is one way that cutting off trade with a partner could help you," Wolfers explains. "And that's if you're an idiot. If you used to trade a lot with one partner, and they always got the better of you because you don't know what you're doing, then you're right, you would be better off not trading with them any more."
by Outlaw is Rejector on Feb 3, 2009 11:23 PM PST up reply actions
just park your car in front of the team bus
and score on the wrong basket.
Chris Mills makes Troutlaw look like a freaking genius.
by LicketyBrindle on Feb 3, 2009 11:35 PM PST up reply actions
Gotta wonder
if Pritch uses and accounts for numbers like this when evaluating players. Who am I kidding I’m sure he does, and maybe he see that Stockton in Sergio’s column and that’s why he isn’t so keen on parting with him. I think an even more interesting comparison would be to take two players and go through and compare each year. For example, since Travis and Rashard both came out of high school you could legitimately compare each of their first 6 seasons and maybe get an idea of how similar the two actually are.
What a stupid comment, Ben
1. Read the names…
2. Ponder…
3. Commence frothing!
Since when do we need to ponder to froth?
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
around these parts lately a quiet moment of reflection is a valuable thing and worthy of a step unto itself
A foolish man
tells people to do that which he knows they will not do.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
please let Brandon equal Jordan,
please let Brandon equal Jordan,
please let Brandon equal Jordan.
I know what you fear.....
K….o…b… ….
"The match in Los Angeles is a good opportunity to begin to demonstrate that we want to make war." Rudy Fernández (translated)
Well,
BRoy hasn’t displayed as much athleticism as we know Kobe and MJ have, and as far as I’m concerned there’s nothing wrong with Roy being more like Kobe than MJ. Honestly I don’t think either will ever be possible, because Roy doesn’t bring the same intensity on defense as Kobe and Jordan. He might end up becoming the best clutch performer in the league, but I don’t think he is capable of scoring like Jordan did and still find ways to win (IE he can either score a bunch of points in a losing effort or distribute the scoring load and win).
Well Bully for you then!
The mantra above just kind of sounded…and some around these parts have this intense aversion to all things LAL, and I just assumed…
In seriousness, I wonder who he will / would best, correlate to. Someone from the 60’s – 70’s perhaps?…thinking…
"The match in Los Angeles is a good opportunity to begin to demonstrate that we want to make war." Rudy Fernández (translated)
He's only correlating
to players after the 3 point shot was implemented.
There may not be any really close correlations. But he’s only basing it on statistics, not style of play, so that may bring up correlations that don’t make much sense at all in reality.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
sadly
no blazers will be compared to me, since I played during the pre-3-point era. – Elgin
You don't have to wear a clock around your neck to know what time it is at Bob's. Meals cooked with real religious fervor! Thousands of empty seats in the back, for the lonely set. At Bob's you don't have to leave your loved one out in the street - your car is as welcome as you are! - Firesign Theatre.
I hope it turns out that you really are Elgin Baylor… because that would be awesome. Elgin was one of the best players of all time and probably the most underrated player in league history.
by danielfarrell on Feb 4, 2009 4:04 PM PST up reply actions
I am not really Elgin.
I idolize him and I agree with your assessment of him. – Not Elgin.
Since when do we need to ponder to froth? - jscot
Moreover
I really doubt that Elgin would use a Firesign Theatre quote as his sig file. – Elgin
Since when do we need to ponder to froth? - jscot
He might however
use jscot in his sig file. – Elgin
Since when do we need to ponder to froth? - jscot
jscot is honored
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
For anyone who wants to see Webster's comparisons prior to this season...
I remember Pelton already posted them a while ago on Basketball Prospectus.
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=34
Sim Player Year
97.9 Mike Miller 00-01
97.8 Joe Johnson 02-03
96.4 Ray Allen 96-97
96.3 Gerald Green 06-07
96.2 Tim Thomas 97-98
95.8 Peja Stojakovic 98-99
95.0 Andrea Bargnani 06-07
94.8 Jason Richardson 01-02
94.3 Dirk Nowitzki 99-00
93.7 Rashad McCants 05-06
Joe Johnson and Ray Allen are nice. Gerald Green and Tim Thomas aren’t so nice.
Mike Miller
would hardly be a disaster.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
Predictions...
Brandon Roy -
1.) Jason Richardson
2.) Dwyane Wade
3.) Bernard King
LaMarcus Aldridge –
1.) Rasheed Wallace
2.) Dirk Nowitzki
3.) Karl Malone
Nicolas Batum -
1.) Tayshaun Prince
2.) Francisco Garcia
Greg Oden –
1.) Dwight Howard (hopefully)
2.) Bryant Reeves (in size only)
3.) Juggernaut
Steve Blake -
1.) Steve Kerr
2.) John Paxson
3.) Danny Ainge
"Now, you take a bobcat or a Jayhawk. You know they'll run if you give 'em the chance. But when one don't run, why, you shoot him and shoot him quick. Raef's my dog, Pa. I've gotta do what's right..." Old Yeller (1957)
by RoyGoesTheDynamite on Feb 4, 2009 9:57 AM PST reply actions
Remember that it’s by age. Garcia was, I believe, 24 when he was an NBA rookie — four years older than Batum. Reeves wasn’t in the NBA at 21 either.
For sure...
I know… I didn’t actually realize Garcia played 4 years at Louisville, I was mainly making a comparison based on body type… Then I kinda lost interest by the time I made the Batum – Prince comparison…
One interesting side-question: Could you aggregate player comparisons into “Similar Teams” or would the comparisons be too far off? With 90 being the threshold of similarity, it seems like it would be a stretch to say something like “the 2008-09 Blazers are most identical to the 2003-04 Pistons” but it doesn’t seem unrealistic to make a similar system that compares team-level statistics to other historical teams, right?
Basic stats would probably be the easiest to compare (pace, points per 100 possessions, defensive efficiency, etc), but it would be super interesting if the equation could factor in points by position or similar efficiency stats by position as well…
Something like, the last team that had a shooting guard like Roy, an Aldridge-like PF, and a Greg Oden/Joel Pryzbilla center combination was the Indiana Pacers with Reggie Miller, Dale Davis, and Rik Smits (playing the parts of both Oden and Zilla)…
Possible?
Is there a place where NBA data sets (particularly historical data sets) are widely available or do you need an NBA license? I’d probably consider a multivariable regression of the stats (and how they correlate with wins) to make my argument for “Similar Teams” but I don’t have access to the data…
"Now, you take a bobcat or a Jayhawk. You know they'll run if you give 'em the chance. But when one don't run, why, you shoot him and shoot him quick. Raef's my dog, Pa. I've gotta do what's right..." Old Yeller (1957)
by RoyGoesTheDynamite on Feb 4, 2009 10:38 AM PST up reply actions
Doing similarity by position would be pretty difficult. I’ve tried and my BP colleague Bradford Doolittle has used a system based on the efficiency numbers, pace, and Four Factors on each ends.
I usually haven’t liked the results very much, so to the extent I calculate team similarity I just use Offensive and Defensive Ratings and pace, adjusted for league.
On data sets: DatabaseBasketball.com offers team and player stats if you credit them. I use dougstats.com for most everything dating back to 1989-90 or so.
Hehehe...
For some reason, I think my work day just freed up a little…
I’m heading to the basement and I shall not return until I’ve proven the Blazers will win 72 games this next season!
While you’re here (I’m a stat-geek through and through, so I’ve got a ton of questions) but how difficult would it be to adjust John Hollinger’s PER rating for the competition that the player is playing against? Short of using Synergy to track the matchups (which seems unlikely for anyone that doesn’t work for the NBA), I think it would be difficult, but if this was available, wouldn’t PER make more sense as a fundamental statistic?
For instance, players like Craig Smith, Jordan Farmar, Amir Johnson and Josh Boone posted proporitionally higher PER’s than you’d expect from a backup, but most of this seems to be the fact that they’re playing against secondary talent. Then, you see players like Travis Outlaw and Rudy Fernandez who play both starter and sub minutes and they’re PER’s don’t compare favorably with bench-mobs from around the league… Likewise, Batum would probably see his PER raise if he wasn’t guarding LeBron, Anthony, D-Will, etc for his 12 minutes per game…
"Now, you take a bobcat or a Jayhawk. You know they'll run if you give 'em the chance. But when one don't run, why, you shoot him and shoot him quick. Raef's my dog, Pa. I've gotta do what's right..." Old Yeller (1957)
by RoyGoesTheDynamite on Feb 4, 2009 11:10 AM PST up reply actions
Opponent level
Mike Goodman, a poster on the APBRmetrics board, has done a lot of work looking into the average number of starters on the floor given how much a player starts and how many minutes he plays. I’m still not totally convinced it makes a big difference.
Smith, for one, is playing almost all his minutes against starters now. His PER has gone down 0.8 from last year. Paul Millsap has gone from playing against mostly reserves to mostly starters, and his numbers are better this season.
This is not to say that every guy with great per-minute numbers should become a starter, but I think usually the explanation lies more in subjective factors (mostly defense) than in their numbers being inaccurate per se.
For vindication purposes, I'd flat-out love it if Juwan Howard showed up on LaMarcus Aldridge's list.
Regarding Greg Oden, Moses Malone will probably be someone who’s statistically similar to him at the age of 21. Oden, however, neverthless seems more stylistically similar to Patrick Ewing in my opinion.
Agreed
Oden as Ewing works nicely. A defensive lord and a solid offensive player who gets an extra 8 a game off putbacks.
Ewing gets criticized for not winning titles like Hakeem and David (finally) managed to do, but that’s not a big deal. Ewing didn’t have Roy/LA with him.
With the caveat...
That Ewing played 4 years of College… Against Hakeem Olajuwon…
So for this season it doesn’t really work…
"Now, you take a bobcat or a Jayhawk. You know they'll run if you give 'em the chance. But when one don't run, why, you shoot him and shoot him quick. Raef's my dog, Pa. I've gotta do what's right..." Old Yeller (1957)
by RoyGoesTheDynamite on Feb 4, 2009 12:11 PM PST up reply actions
thanks and big ups
to Kevin Pelton who started a fascinating discussion with excellent statistical analysis. Very, very thank you. – Elgin
You don't have to wear a clock around your neck to know what time it is at Bob's. Meals cooked with real religious fervor! Thousands of empty seats in the back, for the lonely set. At Bob's you don't have to leave your loved one out in the street - your car is as welcome as you are! - Firesign Theatre.
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