Injuries Re-shape the Playoff Race

The season began as it was thought it would.

   LA shot out to an incredibly fast start, which would have been more amazing if the Celtics hadn't matched them practically win for win. Things seemed like they were settling into place. Dallas lost early, but got hot later. New Orleans rode Chris Paul like a ten cent camel, and of course the Spurs and the Jazz did their "things". All was well in NBAville. Then you get a couple of weeks like this. In the last two weeks there have been some very significant injuries to Western Conference playoff contenders:

Houston Rockets:

   Tracy McGrady is day to day with a sprained ankle. Bad news seems to follow this guy like a puppy that pees on your pantleg, and I think more might be in store for T-mac. Yao's good health has been a great surprise this season, going for slightly better than 19 and 9, keeping the Rockets solidly in the hunt. Also, it's listed as day-to-day, so there's a good chance he won't miss much action.

   With Ming anchoring the middle, Houston has an advantage in the paint 4 out of the next 5 games.  I don't expect they'll lose much ground the next five games has them playing CHI, MEM, MIL, MIN, SAC. None of those teams has a center that could no more slow Yao than raise the Titanic. There might be a surprise in Minnesota, though. Jefferson has to be mad about the All-Star snub, and he's good at working against bigger centers.

5 Game Prediction: 4-1 (33-20)

 LA L*kers:

   K*be Br7ant mistakes Andrew Bynum's knee for a landing pad, and LA's third part of the triangle is missing. He's now supposed to be out for 8-12 weeks with a torn MCL. The most optomistic guess has him coming back just before the playoffs. Yes, the L*kers won tonight, behind the Black Zomba's 61 points... but only by 9 points against one of the East's Leasts.

Say that five times fast.

   LA looks like they have maybe a small crack in the armor. Let's see if it gets exploited. Next five: TOR, BOS, CLE, OKC, UTA. Every one of those games (except OKC) is a potential trap for the L*kers. Minus Bynum the L*kers are not nearly as intimidating, and the win against the Knicks was anything but resounding. Bynum's injury makes the path to the Finals extremely difficult for the L*kers. The Spurs have been quietly beating the snot out of everyone they've played lately, and Houston cannot be overlooked in a 7 game series.

5 Game Prediction: 2-3 (40-12)

Utah Jazz:

   Andre Kirelenko, posterboy for hair gel products everywhere, goes and injures his right ankle. Surgery, 2-4 weeks. He puts on the suit and tie and joins Carlos Boozer at the far end.

   Back by 4 now to Portland, the Jazz are only a half a game out of the 8th spot in the West. Paull Millsap has filled in admirably for the Jazz, but hasn't  shown he can stay out of foul trouble. He's averaging 3.7 fouls per game, behind (I believe) only Oden's 3.9. Their next five games: DAL, SAC, GS, LAL, MEM.

5 Game Prediction: 3-2 (30-24)

New Orleans Hornets:

   I don't think anyone missed this one. The scope of what this will do to the Hornets is potentially devestating. This would take them from one of the top teams in the west to a potential lottery pick. It all depends on Paul's MRI.

   Their next five are against CHI, TOR, MEM, MIN, BOS. A decent lineup, certainly the Hornets could have gotten a lot worse. But like I said, it just depends on the health of Chris Paul.

5 Game Prediction: 2-3 (30-20)

Blazer Ripple Effect

   The Blazers have sustained their share of injuries early (Webster, Oden) and lately (Blake, Roy) but have overcome those setbacks marvelously by displaying their much-talked-about depth. Webster's injury could have been a huge step back for the Blazers, but KP and Co. had plucked up Nic "Batman" Batum, and Travis, though coming on lately, struggled nightly. Players have stepped up all over the place, filling roles and knowing their parts in the system. It's no accident that the Blazers are #2 in the league in offensive efficiency. With such a deep bench, McMillan can afford to rest Roy and Aldridge and not suffer a huge letdown in his offense. No other coach in the league plays his bench as much as Nate, and he's doen a brilliant job so far in keeping his players (mostly) happy.

   Portland looked like it was on the verge of a huge explosion after the Utah game, but the only player who looked like he had any carryover from that was LaMarcus. Getting the win against the Hornets was huge, however it happened. Jerryd Bayless looks like he's gaining confidence by the minute, showing flashes of what we've all dreamed of, a slashing point guard who can get to the rim, but with good enough body control that he's drawing the foul, not the charge. Also, let's put aside any notion that Jerryd doesn't pass. He's already had several games with solid assist numbers in limited minutes. No, he doesn't have the flash of Sergio, but he's made some good decisions, especially on the break. He's had rookie mistakes, and he'll make more, but that's life in the NBA.

   In their next five games, its like the Blazers get the inside of a toasted marshmallow. DAL, OKC, NYK, GSW, OKC Part Deux. Dallas gets put into the category of a great one to win, but understandable if they don't. Dallas is getting hot right now, having won three in a row. The rest of those games ARE must-wins though. If they want to have any cushion when it tightens up after the break. Every single win is going to be important in the seeding, and if they want to have any chance of advancing, the Blazers need to nab one of the top-4 seeds and get home-court. The problem is that, sure the Blazers are only 3 games behind the Spurs for the #2 seed, they are also only four games from being out of the playoffs altogether. That shouldn't be a problem in the next five, though.

5 Game Prediction: 4-1 (34-18)

Overall the Blazers would move into a tie with Denver, and be only 2 games behind San Antonio, if each team plays the way they have. The Blazers now own the tiebreaker over the Hornets after the win last night.