Oden's foul pattern
by FromAfar on Feb 3, 2009 7:59 AM PST
Email
Print
The appearance (or maybe even reputation) was that Greg fouled guards driving to the basket. Greg has been moving his feet a lot lately, and I was interested to look at whether he still fouls guards a lot. I looked at Oden's foul pattern over the last 12 games (excluding Philadelphia game when everyone seemed out of sync).
Over the 12 games Greg was
in foul trouble: CLE, @CHA, UTA; 17 fouls in 3 games
foul prone: @DET, @NOH; 8 fouls in 2 games
not in foul trouble: @CHI, @GSW, @NJN, @MIL, CHA, WAS, @LAC; 24 fouls in 7 games
[Foul prone meant that he was pulled out of the game for some period of time because he had picked up a few quick fouls, but managed to stay in the game at other times and was able to log reasonable minutes].
Fouls themselves:
Offensive: 5 (0.42 fpg)
Loose Ball: 4 (0.33)
Non Shooting: 3 (0.25) -- dont have data on who he fouled
Center/PF: 19 (1.6)
Small Fwd: 7 (0.6)
Guard: 8 (0.5)
Oden fouled guards only 17% of the time, and only at an average of 0.5 fpg. It does not appear that guards getting by the perimeter is a direct contributor to Oden's foul trouble. Even in the 3 foul trouble games, guards only drew 2 fouls (0.67 fpg) on Oden marginally higher than average, but not sufficient to be of relevance.
Combine Guards and Small Forwards as slashers. Slashers drew 15 fouls over the 12 games, still less than fouls on big men. Gerald Wallace drew 4 fouls in one game and almost single handedly fouled Greg out of that game. Except for that one game against CHA, slashers have not been the prime cause for Greg's foul trouble even in foul trouble or even foul prone games.
It does appear that Oden has progressed past the initial issues, and now is mostly bothered by opponents big men, to the tune of 1.6 fouls per game. Unfortunately, he has only played a few good big men during this stretch (Okur/Millsap, Okafor, Biedrins?). But, this is probably part of his normal learning curve and all part of the growth in becoming the monster defensive stopper. Wonder, if Greg sees Joel as a mentor?
25 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I had something to say but found the cancel button too apealing.
I like the post.
I think that guard being the second highest number means something.
and that was pretty much the meat of my thought.
nice post. :)
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
I think he’s got two main problems to overcome:
1) When defending guards on the switch, and he’s trying to move laterally to cut them off, he needs to move a bit less direct sideways, and a bit more back and sideways. This should cut down on his hip-check type fouls
2) Greg feels for whatever reason that he needs to contest every shot. Even when he is already beat, or painfully out of position coming late to help on another’s man. He’s got to learn to let these baskets go (he had one on West last night). Especially if he’s already in foul trouble – just let the guy get the 2 points, and stay on the floor.
If Greg figured out #2 (watch Joel, he generally gets this point), then that would be about half his fouls right there.
Rule #1 of nitpicking is to get it right.
i had the exact same observations. good calls douglast.
The other thing is that his reputation gets him calls. The league has labeled him as foul prone and now people can act and get fouls called (raja bell, cp3 come to mind). And that hurts.
I think we need to leave greg in the game when he’s in foul trouble. He’s not a vital part to this team right now and actually I think przy does better in clutch time RIGHT NOW. So what do we have to lose? Yes sometimes greg will be fouled out by the 3rd quarter, but at least other times he’ll play more than 12 minutes.
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
Question
Is still the guards that create the fouls? I think that by creating space and forcing G.O. to pick up the guard it leaves him man open many times. Greg has not figured out when to let them go all the time. He is getting better, however I think when his man scores he takes it personally, which is why he would be fouling them trying to make the miracle play just to avoid the embarrassment. I haven’t noticed him committing a ton of fouls when it is post up play. It is when he is forced to move his feet with smaller players that he seems to become overly aggressive. Just a thought.
by The Natural ala Mode on Feb 3, 2009 3:51 PM PST up reply actions
I think you would have to compare
his % of fouls relative to other big men to get an accurate picture of how he is doing. I do like that you are trying to put some numbers to this.
Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.
that came to my mind immediately too
how many fouls-per-game do bynum/dwight get on PF/C’s? Some is just to be expected.
Also, if you want to take this analysis a step further, check what % of his fouls on PF/C come when the guard slashes by their defender and Oden comes to switch, then goes back to his man—or when LMA has to switch over and GO comes in to help defend LMA’s man. Guards draw fouls directly, sure, but they also draw fouls indirectly by getting the defense out of position. Having defensively tough guards would help Oden for sure.
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
I like the signature
I am constantly amazed that people use FTW rather than FWIW, which has a drastically different meaning.
Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.
right on
that is exactly what I was thinking.
by The Natural ala Mode on Feb 3, 2009 3:52 PM PST up reply actions
Did this manually
dont think I’ll have enough time to compare to other big men. His basic propensity to pick up fouls is much higher and is probably to be expected in his first season. If this was easier to do, it might indeed be interesting to compare to other rookies. Though again, Greg’s lack of conditioning after his injury probably puts him at a disadvantage even against other rookies.
However, I was mostly trying to explore where his fouls came from, and whether our “porous” defense at the perimeter was possibly contributing to Oden’s foul trouble.
Last night
Paul drew a foul on Oden, and it looked legit in real time. Then the replay went up and Paul had TOTALLY acted as he didn’t beat Oden (who actually moved his feet good) to a spot. What Paul did to sell it was basically just run into Oden w/ his arm cocked and then push with his arm to go flying off Oden like he was bumped.
Gotta give CP3 credit there though, he knew Oden has a reputation w/ the refs and exploited it by showing the guys with whistles what they expected to see. Its like his fake false jump on jump balls, this guy just has too many tricks, its like Stockton all over again.
"I don’t have the first clue who he is talking about, because all I worry about is Jerome." – Jerome James, on comments by coach Nate McMillan about Seattle SuperSonics players being selfish.
fouls
Nice post, but I think it is hard to separate fouls on position ‘x’. I do believe Greg has a harder time with guards in the paint than any other position. A guard in the paint is responsible for probably half the fouls Oden commits on the center/pf position. He rotates to the guard, the guard slides a pass under Oden to the center/pf, Oden rotates back to try and stop the dunk/layup. Foul.
He is pretty good, for a rookie, one on one with a big man. It is when he has to rotate that gets him in trouble. Greg will learn that he does not have to defend, one on one, the 6’-1" speedy point guard. He just has to close the passing lanes and the baseline, and make sure that the only option for the guard is to shoot over him.
You make a good point
Unfortunately, game logs dont give enough data to analyze whether rotating out and rotating back was the cause, as compared to 1:1
fuzzy catagories
You kind of need to include pf fouls in the slasher catagories. How many fouls did Oden have on HIS man. Just look at last nights game even the last foul on West was a play that the ball was loose out top and when NO recovered several Blazers stopped and watched as NO moved the ball to West on the baseline. LA stood at the 3 line the whole play as Oden was left to defend to basket against LA’s man.
Oden does go after too many shots when he is beaten. IT is a process. Joel has been if foul trouble his whole career, aggressive BIGS have this problem until the refs start giving them more latitude. It seems the more they give Oden the ball to work in the paint early in the game the less ticky tack the fouls called are. The NBA is about stars if you want him more involved and get more breaks …feed him the ball.
by Odenrising on Feb 3, 2009 10:30 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Great comment.
Wished we went to Oden early more often. Dont know if we were trying to feature LaMarcus yesterday to give him a chance to show that he was as deserving of an All Star as David West. But it seemed like a game that we should have focused on Greg vs Hilton Armstrong. And it was very frustrating to watch them come up with so many offensive rebounds in the first quarter. The energy level was very strange at the start of the game. Hope we do better against Dallas.
[Dont have data to separate 1:1 vs slasher for PFs. Anecdotally, I’ve seen him get the fouls both ways.]
Interesting thing about all this angst over guard defense
is it’s just as true of every other team. Post 2004 or so when the handchecking rules were changed, there’s not a defender in the league that can keep a halfway decent guard with a good crossover out of the lane. And many of the top defenses in the league don’t employ a particularly great defender at the point – think Mr. Longoria, Jameer Nelson, Mo Williams.
As long as your PG isn’t actively destroying your team defense—by being in the wrong place, not making the right switches, if they’re gambling for steals every possession, if they’re not getting back in transition—it’s probably not correct to blame your overall poor defenses on that guy. Mr. Logoria for instance plays anticipating he’ll get beat- his whole assignment is just to get beat kind of slowly and in a predictable direction so he gives Duncan time to set up and form a wall in front of the bucket.
agreed
I tend to think we (and Oden) are hurt more by poor defense on the P&R than we (and he) are on straight up guard penetration. I’m only basing that on my observations, and not any analysis, but it certainly feels that way.
If we (and he) did a better job of showing (bigs) and recovering (smalls) on the picks, he wouldn’t have to switch and pick up so many stupid fouls.
Rule #1 of nitpicking is to get it right.
"Felt that way" -- that's why I ran the numbers
Initially it feels like he is getting burnt by P&R; but, the switch leading to a foul would mean that Greg is fouling a guard (to the extent that guards are running the P&R) and Greg only fouled a guard 8 times in the last 12 games. That includes guards getting by the perimeter and being fouled near the rim. Even in the 3 games that Greg played limited minutes from foul trouble, he only fouled guards 3 times. The P&R may not be as big a problem as it “feels” like it is. [At least as far as foul trouble is concerned].
A prediction for the next two games
In the next game against Dallas he will get in early foul trouble and be no factor in the game(something like 5pts 3rebs 0blks 2TO).However in the next game against a powerful Oklahoma City team he will stay out of foul trouble and have a good game(17pts 12rebs 2blks 1TO).
Is anyone concerned that Oden had the exact same foul rate in college?
3.9 PF per 23 min at Ohio State. He fouled a lot in the college game where you could literally just camp in the paint and not move. His propensity for fouls is more than just the jump to the NBA.
BINGO, BANGO, BONGO
That
And the players are better in the NBA.
NBA Oden is no better than college Oden right now because of the injury.
So with the superior competition, why isn’t NBA Oden fouling more? Who knows?!?
Either way, once NBA Oden becomes > College Oden, his fouls will go down.
Hard to believe
that Shaq has been able to stay out of foul trouble in his career but Oden won’t be able to. Give the guy some time to learn how the game is called and give the refs some time to gain respect for the big guy and this will be a null conversation.
by The Natural ala Mode on Feb 3, 2009 3:56 PM PST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recommended FanShots
Recent FanShots
In Association With
Ball Don't Lie - NBA - Yahoo! Sport
- Days of NBA Lives: Wherein Roy Hibbert tap-dances to Maine
- Grizzlies Valentine’s Day cards are the key to love
- Kevin Love would like the NBA to take the MLB’s approach on All-Star games
- Kobe Bryant fires a few hilarious salvos at Jeremy Lin
- Brandon Jennings states the obvious regarding his 2014 free agency, everyone goes nuts
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
