Bill Simmons Goes Apocalyptic
by Dave on Feb 27, 2009 10:24 AM PST
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PrintAs FryeGuy has pointed out in the sidebar, Bill Simmons has a mammoth piece at ESPN.com about the impending state of the league given the current economic crisis. It's worth a read.
The money point in my view is that the next round of bargaining regarding the CBA is going to be brutal. Simmons speculates it'll quickly become lock-out brutal and stay there just as long as it takes for the owners to get their way. The timing is bad for the Blazers too: 2011. Just at the beginning of what should be the prime years for this squad. A couple seasons off would be a serious crimp in our growth curve.
Simmons has a couple other lines in there about the RLEC and potential offers. Plus he offers this gem:
Portland seems content to be just a Promising Young Team With a Huge Internet Following for the next 12 years.
OK, Bill...hi! :::waving::: You got us to link you with that one. E-mail us sometime and we'll let you know how we do it...our part of it at least. (Hint: It has mostly to do with Ben's astonishing good looks and with a new cologne I've invented.)
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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Not in 2011 :(
The only thing I hope is that the lockout will not happen. It will destroy most of our chances to win a championship. Not looking forward to 2 or 3 years without Basketball. Don’t know what I will do with my time, I guess I would have to spend time with my wife and son……
"Do or Do not there is no Try"
Yoda
I think a lockout is a looming very real possibility
It would just be our snakebitten luck to have a potential dynasty type of team miss out on that opportunity due to the NBA’s financial situation. Here is hoping that somehing can be worked out.
I was worried...
that there would be a huge referee scandal after the Donaghy thing which would bring the league to it’s knees right in the midst of the Blazer’s window. That seems to have blown over. Now I fear invasion by Corn People from Jupiter. This also will ruin the Blazers championship hopes.
Actually, “fear” is an overstatement. It’s more of a “grave concern”, because I haven’t yet started stockpiling butter.
The cowards never started
The weak died along the way
Only the strong survived
They were the Trailblazers
by lukeyhere on Feb 27, 2009 10:49 AM PST reply actions 2 recs
Do you think Simmons might be fatty?
Q: Is Greg favoring his knee?
Frye: He favors dunking on your head, that's what he favors.
Proven fact that players don't get better over time
Also proven fact that a team only wins a title after making a blockbuster trade. Duh, get with it.
by Zaig on Feb 27, 2009 11:03 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I doubt it.
Simmons’ posts make sense.
Jerryd Bayless has two emotions: Kill and Win.
"I want to put points on your face."
-Rudy to Pau Gasol
TRADE TRAVIS OUTLAW FOR A CHAIR
by rockingharder on Feb 27, 2009 4:54 PM PST up reply actions
Simmons is bad at math?
“Portland seems content to be just a Promising Young Team With a Huge Internet Following for the next 12 years.”
Is he saying that our players are immortal and won’t age after this season? I don’t get this. If we don’t make any trades, how are we going to have a promising young team in 12 years? Won’t our guys be kind of old by then? Am I missing something?
BILL! Help me out here!
I thought the same thing...
Give the man his "M"!!!
by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Feb 27, 2009 11:37 AM PST up reply actions
To be fair
we’ve been a “young promising team” essentially ever since we opted to dump Sheed and rebuild around our “young promising players” Darius and Z-Bo. We just had an entire overhaul in that time, once it became clear that those guys were trainwrecks off the court, forcing another rebuild in that time.
That makes us being a “young, somewhat hyped team” to a varying degree for the past 4 or 5 years. Starting with the Z-Bo/Miles axis, then throwing Webster in there, then adding in Brandon and Lamarcus, then ditching Z-Bo/Miles and adding Oden. I mean, you could’ve said the same thing about Chicago before they impoded last year. The guy’s obviously dealing in hyperbole, so I don’t really feel the need to kill him on it. He killed the Bulls on not trading an expiring PJ Brown to upgrade back in 2007, also.
And his overall point is pretty fair, I mean, we were supposedly getting offered all stars for free, with picks getting thrown in to us to sweeten the deal. Putting all these chemistry excuses aside, there’s no doubt that adding Vince or someone else now would make us substantially better over the next two years. I don’t think that would have put us into realistic title contention, so I’m not mad at KP or anything, but if we go through next year’s trade deadline, and we haven’t used that cap space for anything, then you’d have to say we completely missed a great opportunity to improve ourselves, basically solely because PA was unwilling to spend the extra money. And if Paul Allen is unwilling to fork out a little extra cash, then that’s as good a sign as any that the NBA financial model is completely messed up.
I’m not mad at KP or anything, but if we go through next year’s trade deadline, and we haven’t used that cap space for anything, then you’d have to say we completely missed a great opportunity to improve ourselves
Agree. But remember Jaynes claimed that KP had a deal done but “the coaching staff” nixed it?
Reading Rudy’s blog entry from this week, he expressed relief that Sergio wasn’t dealt
So is that it? “Keeping Rudy happy” was more important than improving the team?
Or was “keeping Brandon happy” the reason Trout wasn’t dealt?
Or was “keeping Nate happy” the reason that Blake wasn’t traded?
The missed opportunity was not “all on” KP, but it makes you wonder who’s really “in charge” of the roster
I would say Brandon is the only player that has roster pull on this team.
Jerryd Bayless has two emotions: Kill and Win.
"I want to put points on your face."
-Rudy to Pau Gasol
TRADE TRAVIS OUTLAW FOR A CHAIR
by rockingharder on Feb 27, 2009 4:55 PM PST up reply actions
I tend to agree with him on this one.
Now MAYBE its the truth we are hurting financially and needed to save money, but we blew a HUGE opportunity with LaFrentz contract. I understand not wanting to trade rotation guys but man, we really could have made a diff.
thats really what he is talking about. A chance for us to go to the next level with RLEC, but choosing to stay put
It was "mascot night" at the Rose Garden, which apparently translates to a dozen inflatable versions of various NBA mascots being chased around the arena by Portland's "Blaze", which is some breed of rapist dog. -PostingandToasting
by GreatOden'sRaven on Feb 27, 2009 12:32 PM PST up reply actions
Wait A Second....
So Simmons is basically saying that because we didn’t trade RLEC that we are content with only being a young team for the next 12 years with a big internet following. Are you serious? Will there not be other opportunities to get good talent to help this roster? I mean to say the Blazers are content because we didn’t do a trade is absurd. And also how are we going to young for 12 more years? it seems by then if we have the same players we do now our average age would be something like 36? What an idiotic statement by Bill Simmons.
Red Hot and Rolling
secondly
no one has ever predicted a lockout 2 years in advance. this is as speculative as someone blogging that we should trade for shaquille oneal.
no offense………
Bill's not alone in his predictions
Richard, go ahead and google “NBA Lockout 2011” — you’ll find dozens of articles, some dating back several months, that speculate about a possible lockout in ’11. This one is representative:
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2009/jan/22/tomasson-second-lockout-could-be-on-horizon/
and look where rocky mountain news is now
and how many people predicted the second coming of jesus, a republican presidency, etc etc. just because there are numerous predictions does not mean they are all bound for reality. back to my original statement, “no one has ever predicted a lockout 2 years in advance”
2k virus. Enough said. You're right
I'm a really really ridiculously good looking orange mocha frappaccino drinking manhammer sandwich
The 2011 lockout
essentially can only be averted by the NBAPA agreeing to take massive concessions (like Simmons outlines) before it gets to that point. Any kind of hardline stance at all, and there will be a lockout. People who remember 1999, or the recent NHL lockout, will remember that the owners got essentially every single concession they wanted (max salaries, luxury tax, limit on lengths of deals), whereas the only “concession” given to the players was an increase in the minimum salaries. When the system is broken to the point that only 10 owners or so are making money, their resolve is going to be that much greater. The NHL was in a similar situation, regarding profitability, and the owners had the commitment to cancel a whole season. Their owners might be disappointed about the drop in revenues post-lockout, but they’re making more money because costs for them are finally realistic.
Owners don’t need the NBA to keep afloat. Players NEED the NBA or they’re screwed, especially with Europe tanking, so it’s not like they could get decent short term deals over there during the work stoppage. And the Starbury/T-Mac/Tinsley situations mean that the players will have almost no public support on their side as well.
When one side holds all the cards like this and has a desire to change things, unless the other takes a good hard look in the mirror, they’re going to get their way.
by Royster on Feb 27, 2009 11:48 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
RIGHT on the money
It was "mascot night" at the Rose Garden, which apparently translates to a dozen inflatable versions of various NBA mascots being chased around the arena by Portland's "Blaze", which is some breed of rapist dog. -PostingandToasting
by GreatOden'sRaven on Feb 27, 2009 12:33 PM PST up reply actions
NHL union
“People who remember 1999, or the recent NHL lockout, will remember that the owners got essentially every single concession they wanted (max salaries, luxury tax, limit on lengths of deals), whereas the only "concession" given to the players was an increase in the minimum salaries”
Isn’t the NHL union notoriously weak, though? What’s the relative power of the NBAPA?
All levels of the NHL's power structure
Bettman and the NHLPA are characterized by incompetence, so I doubt it would be as bad as that, although I don’t know too much about the details of their CBA, but the setup was similar. Because most NHL teams were losing money, it didn’t hurt the owners at all to lock players out. NHL players also had it a little easier because they could still go play in Euro leagues and make decent money. Now in the NBA, most owners lose money, so there is absolutely no financial incentive for them to accept any clause they don’t want in the next CBA except to maintain some good will between the NBAPA and the league. Like Simmons said, though, a large portion of the players are living paycheck to paycheck, and so they NEED to be able to play to make a living. Factor in that most now have very little education, and there aren’t a whole ton of opportunities out there.
No matter how strong the union is, if one side needs any kind of agreement, and the other wants a specific agreement, it’s almost guaranteed that the side that needs one is going to come out pretty bad in it. Whether this involves a lockout is almost entirely up to how soon the players realize that the flush times of the last 15 years are over.
Simmons
Must be looked at as strictly comedy / entertainment.
His analysis on anything real is terrible. He makes predictions and proclamations that are so retarded, I stopped believing that he understands basketball a long time ago. He is usually wrong about 75% of the time, but he will stroke himself for days because he thought Kevin Durant would be good (way to go out on a limb!).
In Simmons’ universe players NEVER get better, and when they do its as if something crazy and magical has happened and he needs to write an article about it. He is sooo short sighted and rarely (if ever) considers future possibilites of growth or development. In his world, and 21 year old player has no upside, even if he does have 13 years ahead of him.
If you read his Trade Value column, its shocking how many old players are still near the top. If I’m a rebuilding team, I would rather have Bynum for the next 12 years than Duncan for the next 3. But not in Simmons’ world.
Your telling me Town and Country is the place to get my new ride??...hehuha
Yeah, I heard of them.
in simmons world
the spurs are exciting to watch. you shouldn’t blame anything that follows on him purely because his parameters of excitement are highly flawed. but go right ahead it’s entirely justified anyways. and he’s a tool.
Bynum will play the same number of games in 12 years as Duncan in 3
and people think Greg is injury prone!
It was "mascot night" at the Rose Garden, which apparently translates to a dozen inflatable versions of various NBA mascots being chased around the arena by Portland's "Blaze", which is some breed of rapist dog. -PostingandToasting
by GreatOden'sRaven on Feb 27, 2009 12:33 PM PST up reply actions
Yes, but...
What he bases the trade value column on is feasibility of a straight-up trade. If SA were offered Bynum for Duncan, there’s no way they make that deal. But if LA were offered Duncan for Bynum straight-up, they’d at least have to think about it. Especially because they are looking for a title in the next three years, and they would have a K*be-Duncan-Gasol nucleus.
Jerryd Bayless has two emotions: Kill and Win.
"I want to put points on your face."
-Rudy to Pau Gasol
TRADE TRAVIS OUTLAW FOR A CHAIR
by rockingharder on Feb 27, 2009 5:02 PM PST up reply actions
Teams have until Sunday to file for relocation for the next season
Today is an owner’s meeting. If someone pushes the emergency eject button, we should know today or on Monday.
I think as usual Simmons is exaggerating (which is his job and right as a columnist), but his opinions are not just based on thin air in this case. Teams will move/get sold due to the economic situation of their stakeholders or owners in the next years. The current CBA does end in 2011, and while it’s pretty clear what needs to change to make the salary structures manageable again and which side holds the better cards, the players union will initially try to drive a hard bargaining course. Another lockout is a very real possibility. I hope it’s over within 6 months if it happens (as Simmons states himself, many players have no desire to not receive paychecks longer than that).
Proud Odensheeple
indeed there's no denying that
but as stated there are so many indicators that everyone on every side knows the consequences of a lockout, especially an extended one as has been predicted. with the knowledge the players agent (i’ve forgotten his name currently) has of the situation, i suspect the players themselves are now well aware of any consequences that may happen if they are rigid in any future CBA discussions, keeping in mind the current…economic crisis. the league however is in a business to make money, and they know that they don’t make money if there’s a lockout. both sides have something great to lose here and considering the history of these situations i believe they are all inclined to come to a satisfying agreement. there’s no evidence that would suggest either side is going to be stubborn in agreement talks, it seems to all be hot-air to stir controversy that IS rooted in reality. my point is that while the possibility is there, the likelihood seems to not be, BECAUSE of the early warning signs and large exposure. at least we should hope so.
Very easy to call someone a tool
He’s actually a super-smart guy with an encyclopedic knowledge of the game. And in something as speculative as the draft his pics have been more accurate than mine, I’ll bet yours too.
by begottenson on Feb 27, 2009 11:53 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
i don't make picks
my analysis of anything stops at “tool”, after that there’s no point in furthering my speculation
I wasn't talking about you specifically
your method works.
by begottenson on Feb 27, 2009 12:04 PM PST up reply actions
rec and plus 1 begotten
Brandon Roy just destroyed everything in his path. There's your rational analysis -- Dave
Also: COMCAST SUCKS!
I wants the cologne
Gimme! Gimme! Gimme!
Elizabeth had a partner and he had a rap from the cops, Him and Lenny Suckerpunch were just out Tooling around
by Lizzy Lowblow on Feb 27, 2009 5:42 PM PST up reply actions
No way in heck a lockout happens
In 2011 the terms “recession” and “job loss” will used more than “epic” and “rec” is on Blazers Edge. No way in heck all those NBA players and their agents are going to willingly go without a paycheck for more and a month. David Stern doesn’t want to lose footing to the other sports and he’s about to retire. I doubt the last thing he wants in his legacy is a lockout. Not gonna happen.
I da man!
I think this article by Bill is dead on
I know you guys are really sensitive, but he didnt say anything about Portland that wasnt true. And his analysis is right on. We are gonna see some movement. Sterns hackjob handling of Seattle basically guaranteed it. Shinn is outta NO as soon as possible. There MIGHT not be a lockout, but their will be massive concessions on the players part. They have NO leverage. The NHL is the worst run league in sports, and I wouldnt be surprised to see 5 teams fold in the next year. At least. Bettman is brutal. This truly was a golden opportunity for us. I think we really wasted RLEC and should have at least turned him into a young player, expiring and picks.
It was "mascot night" at the Rose Garden, which apparently translates to a dozen inflatable versions of various NBA mascots being chased around the arena by Portland's "Blaze", which is some breed of rapist dog. -PostingandToasting
by GreatOden'sRaven on Feb 27, 2009 12:37 PM PST reply actions
also complaining about using the word YOUNG and 12 years is frivolous.
Hes pointing out what people have been for awhile and some say on here. Always with the potential never with the results… i hope thats not what happens, but you cant deny it right now
It was "mascot night" at the Rose Garden, which apparently translates to a dozen inflatable versions of various NBA mascots being chased around the arena by Portland's "Blaze", which is some breed of rapist dog. -PostingandToasting
by GreatOden'sRaven on Feb 27, 2009 12:38 PM PST up reply actions
Umm
Nobody seriously thought that Z-Bo and Miles = titles did they? I wasn’t around BE back then, but if anyone hyped that combination as EVER having a chance to bring home titles, then I’m glad I wasn’t here.
We deserve the young and talented hype now because we are young and talented. Even if Roy and Outlaw have maxed out and Blake/Zilla become old men, we still have LA, Oden, Rudy, Bayless, Sergio, Batum, and Webster who are clearly not even close to their primes. So explain how this team doesn’t improve?
Blake + Zilla getting old in exchange for 7 players getting better.
Can't say I was around BE back then
but that was the franchise’s position, that Z-Bo and Miles were the future (strangely at the same time that we were trying to become character friendly). That’s why we gave them huge contracts. It’s easy to forget how Z-Bo almost singlehandedly brought us back from down 3-0 in that 2004 series against the Mavs, and that Miles was once considered a (somewhat troubled stud).
Obviously compared to the blazers now that team was garbage, but at the time, we had probably the best under 22 low post player and a potentially dynamic 22 year old wing, so I’d say the view of the league was that we were a “young and talented” team, even though we were losing games like nobody’s business, the same way that the Thunder are considered young and talented despite dropping tons of games.
I can see the "young and talented" aspect
But not the type of team that can win titles. I admit, after his rookie year I expected Miles to be the next KG. After his 2nd year though I realized that he just didn’t give a crap about getting better.
Even during the good times though, I figured we needed more than Miles/Z-Bo. I would have NEVER considered that a team that could win titles, even given time.
This team can win titles without a single trade IF a 2 or 3 of the young guys hit the potential we hope for. The other 3-4 of them we wouldn’t even need.
The Thunder are the Blazers from 4 years ago. They are young and talented and lose a lot. They will get better, but the team as is will not win titles, they need another piece or two.
I mean, I agree
there’s “young and talented” like the Z-Bo/Miles Blazers , or like the Pacers/Grizzlies now, and then there’s “young and talented” like the Roy/Oden Blazers or, arguably the Thunder now, but the Blazers have still fallen into either category for the last 4 years, which is what Simmons was saying, really. Without character issues and Miles’s knee exploding that team, we’d probably be firmly mired as a mediocre team like the Bucks built around Z-bo/Miles now that they’ve “come of age”. We just happened to recognize this, with some help from timely injuries, and blew up a young team to re-build again, basically.
It still means we’ve been “young and talented” for a while now.
im confused what does z-bo/miles have to do with anything?
We dont deserve any hype until we win anything
It was "mascot night" at the Rose Garden, which apparently translates to a dozen inflatable versions of various NBA mascots being chased around the arena by Portland's "Blaze", which is some breed of rapist dog. -PostingandToasting
by GreatOden'sRaven on Feb 27, 2009 1:09 PM PST up reply actions
Crazy talk
You need to win before you get hype? Really? So if a new team rolled in and somehow stole Rose, Roy, Durant, Love, and Lopez you wouldn’t hype them? That’s silly.
well you can hype them all you want, but do they deserve it?
NO
It was "mascot night" at the Rose Garden, which apparently translates to a dozen inflatable versions of various NBA mascots being chased around the arena by Portland's "Blaze", which is some breed of rapist dog. -PostingandToasting
by GreatOden'sRaven on Feb 27, 2009 1:21 PM PST up reply actions
This article is too over the top
I am just not going to buy into this article.
First, all leagues (and I mean all leagues) are tightening their belts. Look at the 2009 free agent class in baseball, or even football for that matter. The best players will get paid, but everyone else will have to wait a while. His perspective is far too narrow and, as a result, he looks at the problem from a NBA-viewpoint instead of a total economy-viewpoint.
Second, he failed to note that the salary dumps of 2008 (Garnett, Gasol and any trade involving the Sonics) far eclipse the dumps of 2009. This is because the NBA is extremely unique. They have guaranteed contracts AND a salary cap. I would say that the inactivity in the trade market this season was more a result of teams not being about to find a common ground. (The Sun could have moved Amare, Portland could have traded RLEC, Cleveland could have traded Wally but the price was not right.) My point here is that it is difficult to pull off a trade mid-season, all of the teams noted above had either a ton of impressionable youth, a great record or a lot of turmoil. Those are not recipes for a trade.
Third, his most used example of the NBA’s demise was the Clippers. He could have used that same (to a T) example for 14 out of the past 15 years. They suck, fans do not like sucky teams, thus they lose money.
Fourth, agree on the officials. He is right.
Finally, he disregards the fact that these owners treat these teams like hobbies. Name one owner whose biggest investment (financially wise) is his team. These owners are rich beyond comprehension. Their losses (if structured properly) could actually offset their tax bill.
I do think that the NBA will have financial problems. However, I do not think they are limited to the sport, and I think the NBA players will reap the benefit of seeing what happens to their NFL brethren. I think the players are very smart and that they will not want to revisit a 50-game season again.
George Shinn
all he does is own the Hornets.
As to the salary dumps, I think you’re overstating the magnitude of them. KG was not a salary dump in any way shape or form, and everyone was appalled by the Gasol trade. Now, we hear reports of a VC trade that would have shamed that Gasol trade in terms of lopsidedness, and no one bats an eyelash. Also, those trades happened because there were flush owners that were willing to take on lots of dollars (Bennett and McClendon riding high on oil prices sky rocketing, L*kers rich, but needing to keep K*be happy). Now, without those owners out there, there’s no one to dump salary on. Even the supposedly rich owners like PA or Gilbert, who both had massive expirings, were unwilling to take on more salary. The league has been propped up for a little while now by having Isiah Thomas willing to take on some of the most heinous contracts, but now that that isn’t an option and teams with rich owners are run by competent execs, it becomes harder and harder to dump salaries.
As far as treating the teams like hobbies, sure, and for the most part, I think most owners are willing to stay in the red a little bit(certainly PA has been in the past), but if you’re budgeting to lose $20 million for a season because the salary cap is going up, and all of a sudden it goes down and you’re revenue gets cut in a third because of the economy, and you’re losing $50 million instead, that’s a huge deal, and probably something that’d prompt owners to look at this and say, “we should be making at least a little money on this” rather than throwing away tons of cash on it. Really there’s nothing stopping them.
As for one last thing, I agree that the NBA will benefit from seeing how the NFL negotiations go down, but football is probably 10 times as profitable as basketball as a pro sport, and the entire CBA structure is completely different (guaranteed contracts being the main difference). The main thing NFL teams will be fighting over is revenue sharing between the big and small market teams, it seems to be primarily a battle between owners there, that they need the PA to agree on a solution for. That, plus cutting any NFL games would be a huge financial hit to their owners. In the NBA, you essentially have all the owners united in a position against the player’s association, with no real penalty to them for missing any season time. If they really want to, they can get whatever they want out of the PA.
Ha
KG was traded for Jefferson, who was view as good, and TREC.
just because they needed Ratliff to match
doesn’t make it a salary dump. Minny wasn’t trying to cut payroll by trading KG, he wanted to play for a team that could win, and the Wolves weren’t going anywhere at the time, so they wanted to get a guy who fit into their age range with Foye more (Jefferson). If that falls under the category of salary dump, then essentially every major trade would have to, just because it almost always involves a team getting younger, and younger stars are paid less than older ones. Joe Smith’s expiring was in the AI to Denver deal, but that was hardly a salary dump.
As for the Gasol and Thomas deals, Sarver and Heisley have been hyper-sensitive to payroll ever since they came in the league, so it’s never too surprising with them (see Joe Johnson). The difference is now you had everyone in the league targeting dumps. NJ has one of the lowest payrolls in the league, and they’re still trying to dump Vince for essentially the exact same deal that Seattle got for Thomas, who was barely a role player.
Still, like I said, they required a team willing to take on salary, and teams were doing badly enough now that no one was willing to do that even if you paid them to take an all star (2 firsts for VC). If that price isn’t right, I don’t know what would be. Even looking at reports of the Suns offering Shaq for Wally and Pavlovic. Every rumored deal makes the Gasol trade look like a steal since at least they got younger Gasol and some firsts in the trade. What would we have been waiting for, Wallace and Augustin for Raef? Give me a break.
The only reasons that we would hold off on deals are that a) KP thinks that teams are going to tighten up even more in the offseason, and $7 million in cap room then will be worth more than RLEC now, and/or b) PA would rather save money than improve our chances over the next couple years, both of which would indicate the economy is impacting the NBA, fairly severely.
I just don’t buy it that teams wouldn’t make the deal because “the price wasn’t right”. If you’re not going to make trades at those prices, you’re not going to make a trade, period.
Not right
As part of the KG trade, it was known that Minny wanted a combination of talent and expiring contracts. The combined value of Jefferson and TREC were enough to make it happen. The other players (Gomes, Telfair) were filler, but TREC had a fair amount of value.
The Thomas and VC trades are not similar in that VC has a year and a half left on his contract and is signed for more than double the value of the Thomas’ deal (one year, $9 mil). Moreover, Thomas was/is viewed as a neutral to strong locker room voice guy whereas VC is most definitely not. (The Toronto situation will always hang over his head.) Also, Portland would have gotten even younger with the addition of two draft picks. At some point, Portland will have to get older and VC is not the best way to accomplish that.
Option B "PA would rather save money than improve our chances over the next couple years, both of which would indicate the economy is impacting the NBA, fairly severely." I do not see have you can definitively make that statement. PA is going to have to pay Roy, Aldridge and potentially Oden big, big bucks in the next few years. Fiscal restraint at this point in time makes sense.
Finally, the price was obviously not right because Portland did not make a trade! They tried, but could not get it done. To prove my point, what if Portland goes out and picks up Hinrich and Deng (both long-term contracts) this offseason using a combination of cap space and back of the rotation guys. Would Simmons still be correct? (My guess is no because he used Portland as an example of the fiscally fearful teams.) Would you still want VC and two 1st round picks? (I hope not.)
Gasol and Thomas
were the two biggest cap trades and they happened last year. Not this year. The economy sucks, but you can’t blame it for something that happened two years ago.
Two years of deflation could pre-empt chaos in 2011
The US economy hasn’t dealt with a deflationary environment in so long, most poeple have forgotten how this works. Consider for a moment:
In an INflationary environment, we all know that today’s dollar will be worth less in the future. When we save or invest our money, we want to know what the adjusted growth rate will be AFTER inflation. When we spend, we look at spending on things NOW that we expect to be more expensive in the future.
A DEflationary environment is exactly the opposite. We know that today’s dollar will be worth MORE in the future, through no action of our own whatsoever. One of the reasons that central bankers around the world are terrified of deflation is because it’s a vicious circle. You don’t buy today because you know it will be cheaper tomorrow. Because you didn’t buy today, the seller lowers their prices to encourage you to buy, but this only fufills the prophecy, encouraging you to wait longer so you can buy lower. Despite how cheap everything starts to get, economic activity grinds to a halt because everybody is waiting for the other guy to move first.
The failure of RLEC and WZEC to trade in spite of everyone’s assumptions that they would is THE prototypical example of a deflationary cycle. Even KP himself implied that they thought they would have better oppotunities in the summer.
Deflationary pressures mean that a lot of this summer’s FAs are going to be VERY dissapointed at the offers they receive. Given that there really aren’t any hot names in play, don’t expect to hear about any bidding wars. An aging star like Rasheed may have to decide between renegotiating at a substantially lower price or save his pride with early retirement. This is really important. Once the dust settles on this FA season, and the lower salary cap is implemented, that officially lowers the bar on ALL PLAYER CONTRACTS EVERYWHERE. Players are NOT going to be able to ask for as much as they thought. Guys coming off their rookie contracts are going to have their expectations rudely lowered.
By the time 2011 rolls around, the players may be pretty beaten down just from the free market at work, and the CBA could very well be more of a whimper than a bang.
Deflation is the best possible word
for this. By not trading Raef, KP was essentially better that 50 cents worth of cap space in the summer will be worth more than $1 of expiring contract now.
I’m not saying a lockout is inevitable, per se, but that the result will be the same in that theNBAPA is going to be making huge concessions.
Basically, it’s a good time to be Corey Maggette, Elton Brand, Baron Davis, Andris Biedrins, or Monta Ellis.
Dave
I hate to be “that guy,” it’s just that I have to say something about your use of the term “Apocalyptic.” I am deeply offended that you could use it so nonchalantly. As you and many others know, I am deeply concerned about a zombie apocalypse. Comparing the potential wipeout of civilization as we know it with a Bill Simmons article is deplorable and if it was a word, abhorrable. I’m not sure what else I can say about such a volatile subject.
I da man!
Great, let me break out the dictionary
I try to help with everything," Fernandez said. "If the coach says go rebound, I go rebound. I work for the team.
""If I'm playing this game to get media and attention, I shouldn't be here," Aldridge said. "I'm here to play basketball, and do what I can do to help this team win."
The Seahawks
not to get too off subject are not players this year in fa, they have some cap room but do not seem to want to persue a few needs that need to be filled. I only bring this up because of the finacial termoil that it looks like some sports owners are in. We really do not know PA’s finacial circumstances,maybe his finacial people are flat out telling him to buckle in for the long haul. As for the nba, it looks like there taking a page out of what the nfl is doing. There is talk that the nfl will play a season without a collective bargaining agreement.(so they say) I think its fair to say that sports unions in general have been served notice.
I try to help with everything," Fernandez said. "If the coach says go rebound, I go rebound. I work for the team.
""If I'm playing this game to get media and attention, I shouldn't be here," Aldridge said. "I'm here to play basketball, and do what I can do to help this team win."
I'm tired of hearing about Oden
If Ruffin was unavailable, would we have to hear about it every day as though the world was ending. Let’s think about Oden as though he was Ruffin. When and if he returns, great. Otherwise, let’s move forward with the players we have. Przybilla starts with Frye/Aldridge backing him up. Assuming that we couldn’t count on Oden the rest of this season, I really wanted to acquire Brad Miller as Pryzbilla’s backup. Salmons would have been a nice throw in. Water under the bridge. In any event, I’m still predicting Blazers finish 50-32.
The timing is bad for the Blazers too: 2011. Just at the beginning of what should be the prime years for this squad
If the Blazer’s franchise didn’t have bad luck, they’d have no luck at all, for example:
Following the ’77 championship, the basketball gods must have been provoked by Portland, because…
Walton broke his foot and demanded to be traded. The rest of the promising/young/legacy-to-be championship team left (or was traded) due to free agency
Sam Bowie vs. Michael Jordan
Sabonis was drafted but couldn’t come over until the Soviet Union imploded…meanwhile he hurt his achilles and missed the Clyde-Porter-team championship window, by the time our-Vydas was ready to play, it was the Rasheed-Whitsitt era
which leads us to the 2000 WCF meltdown and the jail-Blazer era
and now we’ve reached the “Oden-is-not-going-be-another-Bowie” present
So, why should we expect “our” fortunes will turn around in 2011? The law of averages?
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