An interesting parallel and lessons to be learned
An afterthought to begin the 2007-08 NBA season, the Blazers drew national attention when they streaked into 2008 riding a 13-game winning streak. By early February, Portland sat comfortably at 28-20, eight games over .500, and posters all over this board salivated at the thought of blowing the roof off the Garden in May. The Blazers proceeded to lose 7 of their next 8 road games, crated to a 13-21 finish, and ended the season nine games out of the playoffs.
Media darlings to begin the 2008-09 season, the Blazers started 2009 in impressive fashion, winning 10 of 13 in January and early February and cruising to a season-high 15 games over .500. Visions of home-court advantage in May danced like sugar plum faries among the BlazersEdge faithful. But like Sisyphus, the Blazers appeared doomed to repeat history, losing 6 out of 8 road games....................
So what's the point?
1) Missing the playoffs last season was not nearly the catastrophe it seemed to be at the time.
I was as bummed as anybody when the Blazers went in the tank. I wanted playoff basketball back in Portland so badly I could almost taste it; thinking about the roar in the Rose Garden during those first playoff player introductions gave me goosebumps. It was my opinion, shared by many around these parts, that making the playoffs and gaining that experience was integral to the Blazers' continued maturation as a team.
I was wrong. Roy has taken the leap from All-Star to All-NBA. Blake is showing that he deserves to be a starting NBA point guard. Travis added a whole new dimension -- three-point shooting -- to his game. LaMarcus continued to bulk up and develop his back to the basket repertoire. Sergio has proved, much like Martell did in his third season, that he belongs in the NBA.
All of that happened without the benefit of playoff seasoning, and it happened because we have the right elements in place for long-term success: coaching staff, front office, and ownership mutually reinforcing one another; and a young, talented, and extremely hard-working group of players. We were winning with smoke and mirrors, and the funny thing about NBA basketball in April and May is it tends to disperse smoke and break mirrors pretty quickly. Our failure to reach the loftiest achieveable goal for last season, reaching the playoffs, didn't change the fundamental fact that we have a special group brewing.
2) In a similar vein, not getting home-court advantage will not be the catastrophe it currently appears to be.
The Blazers were not a playoff team last year, despite what their record in February said; and they are not a top-four team in the West this year, despite what their record said until recently. Right now the cream is going to start separating itself from the crop, and we're still more latter than former. We are highly unlikely to reach our loftiest achievable goal for this season -- procure home-court advantage in the playoffs -- but frankly, we're not good enough for that yet, just like last season we weren't good enough to make the playoffs. Is it frustrating to lose to a Spurs team without Duncan and Ginobli? Hell yes. But gnashing our teeth over a simple reality (we're just not a top-four team in the West -- yet) isn't going to do us any more good this season than it did last season.
3) We're not reaching for the brass ring this year.
KP had the chips and the cards, and he decided not to play. Whether or not you think that's a good decision, there is no doubt in my mind that his performance thus far merits giving him the benefit of the doubt. We could have dealt for a veteran this year and earned home-court advantage for at least the first round; KP deciding against that means that it's not a priority for him this season. Last year making the playoffs would have been icing on the cake; this year a top-four seed would be; but not making a trade indicates that for both seasons for the organization, it was and is just icing -- nothing more.
I'm impatient too. We've suffered through years of incomptence on and off the court, national embarrassment, dark days of dogfighting and drug-doing -- for the love of God, we're so close to being *back* that I can almost taste it again. But this season wasn't the year to lay the cards on the table. Do I wish it had been? Yeah, kinda. But nothing KP and Nate have decided so far has made me doubt their vision for this team.
A Blazers championship this year was a pipe dream. And if that destination isn't feasible, then it's the journey that's most important. Let's hope that both we as fans and the team enjoy it to the fullest.
9 recs |
23 comments
Comments
Bottom line: we make the playoffs, I'm happy.
If an Amare-less Suns team somehow comes back and gets in and we don’t, that will mean something is messed up.
Otherwise, I’m happy. Anything more than playoff entry is all gravy.
Want more aggressiveness? Try less Baylesslessness.
by prezofdeath on Feb 25, 2009 9:25 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
I could be happy even if they don't make it
There are nine good teams in the West. One is not going to make it. It might be the Blazers. If they finish the season beating the teams they should beat, finishing with around 49 wins, and still falling short because they just don’t have it against the best of the west and the other teams finish strong…it would be a big disappointment but not inconceivably heartbreaking.
If they don’t make it because they start losing to the bottom feeders and finish in the 43 to 45 win range, I will be more concerned and disappointed.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
by tssbro on Feb 25, 2009 11:01 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
This team has improved across the board
the roybot, LMA, BLAKE, Pryz… these guys have had good seasons.
2 things:
1. getting a taste of the playoffs will be great for these guys. they want to be hungry for a ring, but they don’t know what it means to be there yet. we don’t really deserve to be much of a threat in the playoffs yet, because…
2. a couple of things make this a ‘lost season,’ where we would never be in contention. By lost season, I mean our starting 3 missed the entire season save 5 minutes. A rookie is starting in place of him. Our starting center is a rookie who has barely been able to play. I think it shows how much better this team is than, say, the bullets, because their lost season means ricky rubio sweepstakes. our lost season means no home court advantage in the playoffs.
barring a complete drop off, I’d say this season has been a very strong step forward for the PTB
by northwestj on Feb 25, 2009 9:37 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
If you had to choose
Between a first round sweep by the L-kers and finishing 9th and getting a lottery ball’s chance in h-ll, which would it be?
Me? I’ve seen enough of those first-round-and-out-smug-looking-Phil-n-Kobe-faces to last several lifetimes
If the TBs can’t finish 7th, then I’ll take 9th and hope KP learns a valuable lesson about why pulling the trigger on deadline deals is better than letting your cake overbake
by two4larue on Feb 25, 2009 9:37 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
nope
it’s time for this team to introduce themselves to the playoffs.
even if it means a first round sweep
by northwestj on Feb 25, 2009 9:38 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
+1
It’s a must that we get in the playoffs to get that experience.
by TallTimber on Feb 25, 2009 10:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And the team will learn to hate the Lakers too
I da man!
by Dragline on Feb 25, 2009 11:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, Rudy being friends with Pau needs to stop!
I like whatever metric makes a Blazer look better.
by einman77 on Feb 26, 2009 4:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If we play the Lakers in the playoffs
I can sure as hell guarantee you we wont get swept.
Karma
by Sabonis4Ever on Feb 25, 2009 10:07 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
The Lakers would sweep us
we maybe— maybe— get 1 game.
Boomshakalaka
by jksnake99 on Feb 25, 2009 11:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I would sell my car and mortgage my house and put everything I own, my parents own, my sister owns, my brother owns, my friends own, and my enemies own on the wager that we win at least one game in that series.
Want more aggressiveness? Try less Baylesslessness.
by prezofdeath on Feb 25, 2009 11:41 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
I would argue that we have the upper hand at home vs. the Lake show
and they have the HUGE upper hand at their house.
So let’s say they have a 90% chance of winning at their house and it’s 50/50 at our house.
[2*(0.50)] * [2*(0.90)] = ~20% chance of us being swept.
Even if you give the Lakers a 70% chance of winning the games at our house and a 90 percent chance of winning their home games, that’s still only a ~40% chance of a sweep.
If you’re giving straight 1:1 odds, I’ll put everything I can on the Blazers winning at least one game.
Want more aggressiveness? Try less Baylesslessness.
by prezofdeath on Feb 26, 2009 12:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i can't give us a 50/50 shot at home but I do see your point
Boomshakalaka
by jksnake99 on Feb 26, 2009 12:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I will wait to see how we do in our regular season home games
before trying to assess the probability of a home win.
But I would never bet something I can’t afford to lose on a 80% probability, even if being given 1-1 odds. That’s fanatical. You… you… you’re a fanatic! So there!
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
by jscot on Feb 26, 2009 3:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I can afford to lose my friends possessions
and if I lose all my possessions, I’m sure I could move in with Ben or Dave….errrr….their parents anyway. I’m pretty sure neither of them owns their own place.
Want more aggressiveness? Try less Baylesslessness.
by prezofdeath on Feb 26, 2009 9:40 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I might not risk all that prez is willing....
… but I’ll certainly take $100 of your money on that bet.
hakkaa päälle !
by timg56 on Feb 26, 2009 12:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think #6 would be a nice spot for us. Denver looks vulnerable to me
My HDTV is a torrented game that I can watch lag-free :(
Let LaMarcus keep the headband!
by inroywetrust on Feb 25, 2009 9:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
im cool with a first round exit
that just means more PTB bball for us!
Rip City Baby...People have no idea what is coming.
Follow my twitter www.twitter.com/PDXBlazersFTW, @PDXBlazersFTW. Lots of random Blazer Posts from links I find around the blogosphere.
by lanepete on Feb 25, 2009 10:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
The Blazers HAVE to make the playoffs
Beyond that everything is gravy. If they don’t get home court advantage, they’ll learn the value of it. This year it’s all about the journey, not the destination.
I da man!
by Dragline on Feb 26, 2009 12:03 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
in some ways
making the playoffs would be like winning a series.
like that one game that starts march madness between the 65th and 64th team. i think beating out the competition for that spot would be huge for this team
by northwestj on Feb 26, 2009 2:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent post!!!
We do get caught up in the jump this team has made but the approach taken by management and the way the team is set up is to peak in a few years… I enjoy all the success we can have this year but am not surprised that we are having difficulties too. There is no denying that we are improving… but its impossible to jump all the learning curves without bringing in veterans, if not it takes time!
by QuebecBlzrFan on Feb 26, 2009 8:34 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
You wouldn't post a theme like this
if you weren’t afraid. Afraid of what? Afraid we won’t make the playoffs. And that’s a reasonable fear because we don’t show well against the big boys. There are fans who believe our 8 spot will be secured by the Suns failure but that’s pretty slender thread on which to hang. I put our playoff chances at 50; 60 if Greg returns and 75% if Greg plays well. My percentages are derived from a proprietary formula for identifying sports picks with a high degree of accurcy. What do you use?
by oregonslee on Feb 26, 2009 6:27 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

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