What KP knew and we didn't
by KP Corleone on Feb 23, 2009 2:26 PM PST
44 comments
When the trade deadline came and went, just like many of you, I felt cheated. I felt wronged. I refreshed espn.com and blazersedge approximately 134 times in the hour before the deadline. I felt like my internet MUST be broken.
How, oh how, could Mr. Pritchard fail to cash in on RLEC? How. Could. He. Let. It. Just. Expire. Whoa is Blazernation.
Many of us thought: KP's gunshy. He's lost his nerve. He overvalues his players. Missed opportunity. His first big mistake. Sure, the Blazers could have a little cap space this summer as a result. Maybe $7 million or so.
But how the h-e-double-hockey-sticks could $7 mil in cap space be worth more than a $12 million expiring deal partially paid with insurance money Paul Allen doesn't need? In this economy?!? Wasn't everybody, somebody, ANYBODY desperate for that golden ticket?
The answer? Probably.
But not as desperate as they're going to be this summer for that cap space.
As Hollinger explains today, the cap next year will likely be about $5-6 mil below where it was expected to be. That means teams planned on being able to spend $5-6 mil more and still get revenue sharing.
That means between the lost revenue sharing and the luxury tax bill, teams that planned to under the cap spending $75 mil or so on their 2009-2010 payroll could stand to lose $10-15 million (or more) due to the shrinking cap. That's $10-15 million they absolutely cannot, cannot, cannot afford.
You're a small market owner. You thought $75 million would put you under the cap. Oops. It won't. Suddenly you're $5 million into luxury tax hell. You have to escape.
The upshot? You're DESPERATE to shave off $5 million in cap space this summer.
Hollinger mentions several scenarios in the article where, essentially, teams would give away their top-three pick just to shave off that little bit of dough.
How much cap space will the Blazers have? Oh, about $7 mil. Doesn't sound like a lot.
But that's enough to get other teams under the cap and take advantage of all that desperation.
How many teams are in similar situations? Very few. How many of those are willing to take on extra money? Even fewer.
Maybe KP's not slipping just yet, after all...
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I think it's safe to say KP and Penn and whoever else know more than any of us doing the speculating
That includes East Coast-based pundits.
Blazer Fan
by leeroyjenkins on Feb 23, 2009 2:29 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
but it was such a colassal disappointment!!! KP shoulda...
blah blah blah RLEC blah blah blah deadline blah blah blah finals blah blah blah.
Totally, LJ.
These guys are the pros pro.
Give the man his "M"!!!
by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Feb 23, 2009 2:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't stop there
I think the people who don’t know as much as our Blazers management brain trust realistically includes; beat writers, opinion columnists, shock jock radio analysts and probably 50% of other GM’s. I understand the tendency to want something to happen and second guess these guys, but really, these guys should have all learned their lessons by now… Instead it’s another Pritch-slap for em.
by BradBBlazer on Feb 23, 2009 2:37 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
and it was stories that said how important it was to get rid of RLEC NOW that fed the frenzy that gripped the fans. We just assumed there would have to be a trade. We KNEW that KP doesn’t like mid-season trades. We KNEW he’d said he was happy with this team and wasn’t looking to trade anyone – but that he’d listen. But then we read on the internet (has to be true, you know) that we couldn’t just let RLEC expire (RIP) so that was our belief so we started examining the best trade scenarios even if we had to give up a core player or two or three … and then nothing. Or rather, then Michael Who? I sorta think your last sentence also applies to [many] fans … “but really, these guys should have all learned their lessons by now… Instead it’s another Pritch-slap for em.”
"He made everybody's job easy," Aldridge said of Blake. "All we had to do was finish." 02/22/09
by jorga on Feb 23, 2009 3:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent points
after the initial shock and rage faded from my childish desire to get what I wanted I now see KP’s wisdom.
Why?
by Idog1976 on Feb 23, 2009 2:42 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
My question is
Waht teams will potentially want to give us their top 3 pick(rubio) for the money?
by raging WebTed on Feb 23, 2009 3:10 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
not a top 3...but at least their first round pick
by Tofu Anonymous on Feb 23, 2009 3:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think
that if we add a pick & more youth, it should be a top three.or Kp could always start out with a lower pick and move his way up the draft latter like he did in 06
the most likely are;
Sacramento 25% to win it
clippers 15.8%
Okc city 15.8%
Wizzards 15.8%
memphis 8.8%
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/lottery2009/mockdraft
there were talks of washington getting rid of their pick befor the deadline.
by raging WebTed on Feb 23, 2009 3:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And then how will we trade for Pau, Marc, & Calderon?
All of these complicated questions…
".. is gumby an alien?"
by staylost on Feb 23, 2009 3:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Marc Gasol = Johnny Drama
Yes! Yes! In the face!
by LeafHawk on Feb 23, 2009 4:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Pau, Marc, & Calderon
reunited with Rudy and Sergio ..
Imagine what a second unit that would be. They wouldn’t even need to learn to talk American!
by jayfisher on Feb 24, 2009 12:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Cap Space
Um…if the cap drops by 5 to 6 mill, doesn’t that eliminate most of OUR cap space, too?
by blazer91 on Feb 23, 2009 3:43 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
you got it
post doesn’t make much sense imo
by Falcao on Feb 23, 2009 3:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
we can make our trade
at the draft, when the cap is still at the current level. Raef’s contract will be off our books then, from what I understand.
by Cablinasian on Feb 23, 2009 5:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Taking a look at Storyteller's salary site of awesomeness
by postup on Feb 23, 2009 7:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
bah
next year, assuming we gaurentee blake and outlaws contracts and resign channing to eliminate his cap hold (or maybe its a team option, i dont remember), we will be sitting at $54 mil in payroll. The current cap is $59 mil, and if it falls $6 mil, will be $54 mil next year ($6 mil being worst case scenario), leaving us right at the cap. We can also waive channing, cutting 4 mil and change, which will put us just below $50 mil in payroll (4 mil under cap). Ruffin’s contract (1 mil) will also expire, putting us at ~48.5 mil. (about 5.5 mil under cap). We also have a mid level exception worth a little over 4 mil, and the exception that we got from the ruffin trade is worth a hair under 3 mil.
Now dave has explained this before on the front page, but I’m too lazy to find a link, so you’ll have to go use the little search box thingy, but ill try to do a little explaining.
Obviously we could just sign a 5.5 mill player, but there’s another option. Being under the cap, we can take back more salary in a trade then we send out. This means we can trade, say Sergio and his 1.5 million, and take back as much aditional salary as we are under the cap, which in this little scenario is 5.5 mil, so essentially we could trade sergio for a guy making 7 million a year.
The other aspect is draft picks. If i remember right picks, for trading purposes, are valued at 3 mil each. However the contracts for the top 10 picks are over 3 mil a year (e.g. Greg’s was 4.5 mil the first year). If we’re under the cap, i think we can use one of our exceptions to pick up a top ten pick from a team that needs to shed the picks salary to get under the luxury cap.
Of course we still might appeal to get Darius’ 9 mil off our books and then we are back in business for signing a much larger contract.
by postup on Feb 23, 2009 7:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No, draft picks are valued at 0 for trading
by pualo on Feb 23, 2009 9:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Earlier picks are cheap lottery tickets
They are how you get better quick. And the players you draft are stuck at journeyman wages. No GM trades those for cap relief unless the owner is taking down the tent.
by LaoTzu on Feb 24, 2009 2:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
According to Oregonlive...
the exception included in the Ruffin trade is worth 3.13 million.
http://blog.oregonlive.com/behindblazersbeat/2009/02/the_real_deal_behind_diogu_for.html
by parkinglotj on Feb 23, 2009 10:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The mid-level will only be available if we are over the cap
which we will not be.
We could also use the trade exception and not send a player out. Then we could take back about 8.5 million.
Koponen - PG of the future. For Italy, that is. Book it.
by Blazerholic on Feb 24, 2009 12:44 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Now that I've finally calmed down after being upset we passed on Amare/Crash
I’m willing to take a wait and see approach. If we make the playoffs this year and KP significantly improves the team this summer, I will issue an mea culpa.
Boomshakalaka
by jksnake99 on Feb 23, 2009 3:53 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
How big of you........
Oderint dum metuant
by WhiteRabbit on Feb 23, 2009 10:33 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I deeply resent this headline
How could Kevin Pritchard possibly know more about running an NBA franchise than all the resident geniuses here at Blazersedge? He’d be lost without our sage advice.
"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla
by hurryup09 on Feb 23, 2009 4:11 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
That's why KP follows B Edge
to make sure his head his screwed on straight. He only seems like a genius becasue he follows our (best) advice.
by NWfan on Feb 23, 2009 4:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
preach it
Want more aggressiveness? Try less Baylesslessness.
by prezofdeath on Feb 23, 2009 4:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's not purely about whether they could get the best value for RLEC.
If this team doesn’t make the playoffs KP is gonna take some heat for not picking up vets. Not making the playoffs would be a huge disappointment and this place will riot. Go back and look at comments and posts when the team wasn’t playing very well before the trade deadline to see what I mean.
Koponen - PG of the future. For Italy, that is. Book it.
by Blazerholic on Feb 23, 2009 4:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Money saved is money earned
I like the 3 mil trade exception that KP got in the Ruffin deal. And I could see us getting rid of our draft pick unless there is something great still left on the table in the mid twenties. The blazer’s have been using a rebuilding strategy that has heavily utilized building through the draft, but i think that stage is over. It is time to let our assets and players mature, get what we can for the unnecessary pieces and start positioning ourselves for success.
"In general, I hate the snap judgments. I hate the rush to predict things. I hate the sports culture that can't think of anything to say unless it is predicting things. I dislike the over-hyping and the following angst-ridden crashes. I dislike the overdrawn, over-simplified, nuance-free generalizations that sprout like weeds over the conversational landscape because accuracy and fairness and truth don't fit as neatly between commercials or quote as easily around the water cooler."
-Dave
by wwKPd on Feb 23, 2009 4:47 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
KP worships at the alter of Team Chemistry...
……………………. the VERY BIG roll of the dice is that this unit is good enough as currently constituted to make the playoffs. If that is the case, whether a deal is done now or later is not particularly important…
We’ll see. Two games into the 29 game homestretch, KP’s looking pretty smart. But the hard stuff is yet to come…
Why is Channing Frye still here? Anybody??? Anybody???
by timbo on Feb 23, 2009 5:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
+1
It seems like it was a big morale booster when he gave that speech to the team.
“We can make it with this group of players.”
Young guys listen.
--
by CaptainSexyJacob on Feb 23, 2009 7:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think you meant altar
because he doesn’t want to alter Team Chemistry.
This team is easily good enough to make the playoffs. The question (with a potentially very painful answer) is how they will do when they get there.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
by jscot on Feb 23, 2009 11:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
True
But even if they go four and out, the season will have been a success. The team will have won 50+ games (most likely), and will have gotten their feet wet (or their nose bloodied—pick your metaphor) in playoff basketball. That’s plenty to build off of going forward for such a young, talented squad.
That’s why I picked the BE handle of “hurryup09.” The real action begins in ‘09-’10. That’s the season when the Blazers’ championship window opens—if only a crack. Assuming that they do get that playoff experience this season, that is.
"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla
by hurryup09 on Feb 24, 2009 2:17 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Stein still doesn't get it, has he ever seen Bayless play??
Why are so many people obsesses with the now? Are there just a lot of really impatient people in the world? Giving up a rookie with tons of potential, a solid rotation player, and bunch of money for a middle of the pack veteran is silly.
http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=25188
Stephen (Salem, OR): Did the Blazers drop the ball by not moving Raef LaFrentz’s contract?
Marc Stein: Absolutely yes in my view. They’ve lost tons of cap room because of the D-Miles saga. They’ve got one of the few owners willing to spend and taken on money. So that was a huge chip to add talent that is now unavailable to them. I’m sure the Blazers would insist that they didn’t pull the trigger because teams were also trying to get a first-round pick out of them. The flip side there is that Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard clearly did not want to part with any of his top youngsters. It’s not only Aldridge who was never made available to anyone. We repeatedly heard leading up to the deadline that even Bayless was pretty much off limits. Maybe future deals will develop that are even more enticing than what was on the table this month, but Portland can no longer put together that Raef-Outlaw-Bayless package that was so appealing.
Blazer Fan
by leeroyjenkins on Feb 23, 2009 7:08 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
These things are both true...
So that was a huge chip to add talent that is now unavailable to them.
We repeatedly heard leading up to the deadline that even Bayless was pretty much off limits.
I still contend that RLEC could have and should have been used to fill one of the team’s pretty obvious holes: (a) replacement for the year for Marty as a scoring 3; he is out for the season, pretty clearly. (b) backup PF is is not afraid of contact and capable of scoring and rebounding down low.
Those holes remain. Can Nic step up? Will the lightbulb go on for LMA and will he start to Achieve Boshdom by staying low? That’s what it’s going to take, both of these things…
Why is Channing Frye still here? Anybody??? Anybody???
by timbo on Feb 23, 2009 7:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree
We needed that back-up 4. I get why KP wants to wait and see what’s available this summer, but I’m impatient and wanted my bruising, make-em-bleed 4 NOW.
Which is why KP is KP and I’m posting on the ’Web.
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Feb 23, 2009 7:40 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Indeed!
Me, too.
KP knows that integrating a new starter would not do much for us this year. He is looking at a realistic window starting next season. I want a hammer in Nate’s toolbox, too. There should be a few laying around on draft day or later this summer.
I really hope that we get some better injury Ju-ju and stay healthy next season. Martell in this mix would be exciting.
by LaoTzu on Feb 24, 2009 2:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I want a banging back PF too
But at the same time, I don’t think that is the role we’re missing that will keep us from playoff success. That sort of guy will help, but the stuff they traditionally do well— rebounding and offensive putbacks— are things we’re already great at.
What will help us have playoff success is better defense, especially at the perimeter, and Oden’s development. Once those things improve (and most of it will just take time and a test run through the playoffs), we’ll do gooder.
The backup banging PF is just a bonus. They’re real easy to get, too… probably the easiest position to fill.
Morty
by Mortimer on Feb 25, 2009 2:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What about a backup banging PF with a bangin' butt?
I bet those are harder to come by.
I da man!
by Dragline on Feb 25, 2009 6:19 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Candace Parker?
I’m not really sure she makes us better, though she would more of a physical presence than Frye.
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Feb 25, 2009 2:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Gimme 18 years and 9 months
Provided there’s no longer the 1 year in college rule, and I’ll make ya a PF with a bangin’ butt.
I’LL GET TO WORK ON IT TONIGHT.
Mortivirile
by Mortimer on Feb 25, 2009 2:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, patience is the key
We’ll have our Maxsap (Millsap/ Maxiell type off the bench) next season. And he won’t cost the team much.
Look around the league: every single Maxsap out there was originally a second round pick, and the Blazers have a slew of those in the next draft.
"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla
by hurryup09 on Feb 24, 2009 2:20 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
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