The Sched Ahead -- Feb. 23 Weekly Update

SUMMARY INFO (rehashed)

Four categories of games (now with additional names for the non-numerically inclined):

1. Home games against sub .500 teams.  Cream Puff Home.
2. Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category).  Jawbreaker Home.
3. Road games at losing teams.  Banana Peel Road.
4. Road games at winning teams.  Rocky Road.

A general formula for success in the NBA is to win almost all of Cat 1 (Cream Puff Home), a majority of Cat 2 (Jawbreaker Home) and Cat 3 (Banana Peel Road), and win some in Cat 4 (Rocky Road).  The contenders may win more than half of their Cat 4 games.

Discussed further by ulc and here. 

Last Week

Two Weeks Ago

DAILY UPDATE

Yesterday's update.

A good day to be a Blazer fan.  A fun blowout against a league doormat, and two of our rivals drop winnable games.

Rajon Rondo shredded the Suns, and Boston won easily in their first game after KG's injury.  Boston plays at Denver tonight, still without KG.

Houston chewed up the Bobcats, decided they tasted bad, and spit them out.  Carl Landry missed again with a sprained ankle, I've not heard any reports on whether he'll be back against us.  They are 15-6 without T-Mac.  That is disrespectful to him, and I think we should beat them so they can see that he is important.  My motives in this are purely altruistic.

Denver drops another tough one on the road, at Milwaukieee.  Their triumphant road trip kind of fizzled at the end, but it was still an excellent trip for them.  The big news is the injury to Nene.  K-mart was out with back spasms, may or may not be back against the Celtics.  A very tough back to back for Denver, especially with the injuries.

L@kers outlasted Minnesota.  Too bad, that would have made it an even better day.

COMMENTS ON THE WEEK

Category Shifting.  There have been no category shifts in recent weeks, but Detroit and Philly are both on the verge of dropping below .500, which would shift some numbers around.

Portland (3-0) won two Cream Puff Home games (Cat 1) and a Jawbreaker Home (Cat 2).  Good solid week.

Dallas (2-1) won 2 Cream Puff Home games and lost a Rocky Road (Cat 4) at Houston.  Lost some ground.

Denver (1-2) started with a nice Rocky Road Cat 4 win at Philly, but then gave it away plus some with two Banana Peel (Cat 3) road losses. 

Houston (3-0) had their first really good week in a while, all at home, with two Cream Puff wins and one Jawbreaker. 

L.A. (4-0) played four in six nights and won them all.  Two Cat 2 Jawbreakers at home and two Cat 3 Banana Peels on the road.

N.O. (2-2) did a decent job with a brutal schedule, splitting 4 in 5 nights.  They won the Banana Peel at OKC and the Jawbreaker at home against Orlando, then dropped back to back Rocky Road games at L.A. and Utah. 

Phoenix (3-1) improved their position by winning the games they should, but lost their only tough game to keep it from being a really good week.  Even without Amare these guys can be dangerous, but it looks like they are in more trouble than anyone else.  2-0 on Cream Puff Home games, 1-0 on Banana Peel (at Clips), and 0-1 on the only game against a team with more than 13 wins (home against Boston).  If you get Boston with KG out, especially at home, you really need to take advantage of it and get a win.  You can't say, "But Amare is out, too," because he's out the rest of the way.  Lost opportunity by a team that can't afford to lose opportunities.

The Spurs (2-1) basically held position, splitting their Banana Peels and winning a Cat 4 Rocky Road.  Not much to complain about that week with Manu out. 

Utah (3-0) continues their climb from the depths with three straight home wins, one Cream Puff and two Jawbreakers (Boston, N.O.). 

Helped themselves:  Portland, Houston, L.A., Phoenix, Utah.

Treading Water: N.O., S.A.

Hurt themselves somewhat:  Dallas, Denver.

The tables:

Cat 4 -- Rocky Road

Denver and S.A. won one of these, Dallas lost one, and N.O. lost two.  Notice that Utah and Phoenix, the teams most in trouble in the standings, have the most of these left, and are also the worst at them.  We have two this week, even a split of them would be excellent.

Cat 3 -- Banana Peel Road 

Denver (2) and San Antonio were the only teams to take losses in this category this week.

Cat 2 -- Jawbreaker Home

Portland, Houston, L.A. (2), N.O., and Utah (2) won games in this category this week.  Only Phoenix lost one, the only home loss for any Western contender.

Cat 1 -- Cream Puff Home

No losses in these games this week.  Concentration is up as the playoff battle heats up, and we'll probably see fewer losses in this category than we did earlier.

All Home Games

We are not just good at home, we are elite-level.  Denver and S.A. have a lot of home games left.  Utah has been making their recent run by winning at home, but they have some work to do on the road, where they haven't been very good at all.

All Away Games

Denver took two road losses this week, which opened a door for us, but now we need to win on the road if we want to keep the pressure on.  We've been ok but not great on the road -- 2 road wins this week would really help, 3 would be superb.

All Games Against Winning Teams

Denver's remaining schedule is easier than ours on virtually every basis.  This week, they play at home while we go on the road, and we have three games against winning teams this week.  If we can stay close through this week, we've got a chance.  Phoenix is now 5 games below .500 against winning teams, Dallas 4 games below.   Our record in this compares reasonably well to the others, except for L.A.

All Games Against Losing Teams

Advantage here for N.O. and Denver, disadvantage for Houston, as far as quality of remaining opponents.  L.A., S.A. and Denver have the best records against losing teams, and they are the division leaders.  Ability to concentrate and win the games you should is a very, very big factor in gaining a high seed -- and we've done pretty well at that as well. 

Back to Back Games

We clear one of our back to backs this week at S.A.  They will also be on a back to back that night.  Utah's schedule is still the worst. 

Winning/Losing Standings

How many games have been played against winning teams, and how many against losing teams -- and how many are remaining.

Houston has 8 more games left against winning teams than losing teams.  Denver and N.O. have the same number against winning and losing teams.  This would suggest that N.O., rather than Houston, might be the greatest threat to our fourth seed.

The Important Stuff

Here is the vital stuff:  the jscot Stupid Sched Projections. 

NEW DISCLAIMER:  This is in addition to the standard disclaimer below.  The problem with the projections now is not the small sample size of games played in each category.  When a team has played 13-15 games in a category, you've got a pretty good indication of their performance. 

Now, the small sample size is on the games being projected.  If you are trying to project future results based on percentages, aberrations such as exceptionally bad games or exceptionally good games will skew results in a few games but average out over a larger number of games.  For instance, we have only 5 Cream Puff home games remaining, and because we are 13-1 in these games, we are projected to get 4.64 wins out of those 5 games.  Denver has six left and is projected to win all six.  But all it takes is one bad game to throw the projections off.

The other factor is that not all Cream Puffs or Rocky Roads are created equal.  A game at Phoenix is not the same as a game at Cleveland.  Over a relatively large number of games, that factor doesn't matter, but when you get down to just a few, the fact is that you have a decent chance to win at Philly, Detroit, and Phoenix, but at Cleveland....  So as the season narrows down, it starts to be more profitable to look at the specific games rather than categories.

Enough blather, on to the standard disclaimer and the numbers.

Standard Disclaimer:  How these work (if they can be said to work, which is doubtful), and why they are stupid, is explained in previous posts.  Do not blame me.  This is only the numbers.  It isn't the spreadsheet's fault, either, the spreadsheet is only doing what it is told to do.  Someone was stupid enough to tell the spreadsheet to do it, but we don't want to discuss that.

Playoff seedings if everyone keeps winning in every category at exactly the same rate for the rest of the season, and if no .500 or better team turns into a losing team, or vice versa (is that enough disclaimers)?

1. L.A. -- 67.0 wins, up from 65.8.
2. Denver -- 55.5 wins, down from 56.7.  (30 day min 54.3, max 57.6, avg 55.7, 30 days ago 54.5)
3. S.A. -- 55.5 wins, down from 55.7.  Currently trailing Denver by 0.03 wins.  (min 53.7, max 57.2, avg 55.7, 30 days ago 53.7) 
4. Portland -- 51.9 wins, up from 51.2.  (min 51.2, max 53.8, avg 52.0, 30 days ago 51.4)
5. Houston -- 50.6 wins, up from 49.7.  (min 49.4, max 52.3, avg 50.2, 30 days ago 52.3)
6. N.O. -- 49.3 wins, up from 49.2 in 7th.  (min 49.2, max 55.6, avg 51.5, 30 days ago 54.3).  It's not been a happy 30 days for the Hornets.
7. Dallas -- 48.5 wins, down from 49.3 in 6th.  Hurt by the Houston loss, but still taking care of business against bad teams.  (min 47.8, max 50.8, avg 49.1, 30 days ago 47.8)
8. Utah -- 46.1 wins, up from 45.1.   (min 43.8, max 46.1, avg 44.8, 30 days ago 45.1).  Trending upwards.
9. Phoenix -- 44.7 wins, up from 43.9.   (min 42.5, max 45.5, avg 44.1, 30 days ago 44.4)

New Feature

By popular demand (amlmart1 demanded it, and he's popular), I've added the min/max/avg projection for the last 30 days for each team except the L@kers.  I've also added what their projection was 30 days ago.  For some reason, with L.A., my spreadsheet is choking on producing their numbers, and I deem them not worthy of the effort to figure out why right now.  Perhaps my spreadsheet is also a Blazer fan, and does not like large numbers on the L.A. portion of the sheet.  I do not know nor care.

Note that these min/max/avg numbers are based on the current status of teams like Philly (they are in the .500+ category), and not based on what their status was on that date (too much trouble to figure that out).

The Coming Week

Crunch week for several teams, especially with the injury situation.  This week may go far towards telling us where teams will end up.  The week ahead:

1. Portland.  @ Houston, @ San Antonio (back to back), @ Minnesota, San Antonio.  Two wins would be a solid week, but I'm hoping for 3 to up the pressure on Denver and possibly even S.A.  The spreadsheet projects about 1.8 wins for us.  The Spurs are on a back to back as well as us.  Manu is out. 
2. Dallas.  @S.A., 3 Cream Puffs.  Anything less than 3 wins is a disaster, and could drag them back towards the 8-9 situation.  4 wins and they can start to talk about contending for a high seed.
3. Denver.  3 tough home games, Boston tonight (both on a back to back), Atlanta, L.A., then on the road at Indiana.  If Nene is out (and Martin is doubtful, and Anthony is hurting), they could potentially lose any of those games.  Three wins would be a great week, two wouldn't be bad.  'Melo may get the numbers, but Nene and Billups are the ones who have carried that team, and this is an absolutely brutal week to lose him, even if just for a few games.
4. Houston.  2 home games (Portland, Cleveland), then two road games back to back (Chicago, Minnesota).  It would be very like Houston to win both home games and then drop one or both of those games to a weak team on the road.  They do have a chance to make a move here.  Three wins is achievable, and would be a very good week.
5. L.A.  Not wasting my time, I don't care.  Hope they lose some along the way somewhere.
6. N.O.  2 at home (Detroit, Milwaukieee), 2 on the road (Sac, NJ).  They will like their chances to win at least 3 of those, which could put them right back in the battle for #4.
7. Phoenix.  Winnable home games (Charlotte, Toronto) sandwiched around two games with L.A.  3 wins would be great, 2 keeps them breathing on their own, 1 puts them on life support.
8. S.A.  Three "nice" home games -- Dallas & Portland back to back, then Cleveland (who will be on a back to back), then at Portland.  That's right, they get two home games in a row against teams playing on a back to back.  Somebody really likes those guys.  With Manu out, two wins wouldn't really be a bad week, but they'll want to do better than that.
9. Utah.  Four winnable games -- home to Atlanta, @Minnesota, home to Sacramento, then at G.S. on a back to back.  I expect they will drop the last, and they are capable of dropping the Minnesota game as well.  Three wins would be a good week, four would be superb, and we would have to start watching our backs (though they still have a long way to go).

Tonight's Games

 Philly at N.J.  Could cause a category switch if the Nets win.

Boston at Denver.  Discussed above, both on a back to back, both hurting with key injuries.  I don't like Denver if Nene is out, especially if K-mart also is out, but this is at home for them.  Denver had a tougher game last night than Boston, which may make it harder for them as well.

Atlanta at Utah.  Interesting game.  Utah should win, but Atlanta is dangerous, and they are more rested than they were in Portland.  Utah really needs this one.

N.O. at Sacramento.  Sigh.  I would really like to see the Kings get a win, but....  They did win in N.O. earlier this year, but I suspect the Hornets remember that, still.

Three games, I wouldn't bet the house on any of them helping us, but there's a decent chance something good can happen in at least one of them.

That's it for this week.