How important is the road trip?

by mjm6783 on Feb 23, 2009 12:13 AM PST Comment 32 comments

It's been said over and over, and then repeated again for good measure.

"From now on, every game is important."

And it's true, every game is important. But really, aren't there some games which are more important than others? This 3 game road trip is an excellent example of the different types of games the Blazers will face from now until the end of the season. So I thought it might be valuable(fun) to (over)anaylze the relative importance of each game.

So, Rockets, Spurs, and T'Wolves.

Right away, Houston seems to jump out as the most critical win. They would surpass us in the rankings if they won, stealing home court advantage. We've beaten them, but only because of B Roy's play of the year. A more decisive victory is in order if we want to show we are truly the better team. This is very important, as Houston could be a first round playoff opponent.

But then again, if you knew that we were only going to win 1 of the 3 games, wouldn't you want to beat the best team? We have proven totally inept on the road against good teams, and San Antonio is one of the best in the business. Although it's common for young teams to struggle on the road, for the Blazers it's like watching totally different teams. It's as if the energy of the Rose Garden is both a blessing and a curse, in that it allows us to rally when we are struggling at home, but leaves us unable to find that same fire on the road.

Then again, what if we went 2-1, but lost to the T'Wolves? That would almost be more confusing than promising. They are almost a must win, due to the fact that we can't afford to give up anything easy if we want the 3 or 4 seed.

So let's see. We have to beat Houston if we want to prove we deserve a top 4 spot. We have to beat SA to prove that we can compete against a veteren team on the road. And we have to be Minnesota so we can prove that we don't lose games that we shouldn't.

I say, let's just make it easy and win all three. That way we can get back to .500 on the road, and put to rest a lot of lingering issues about our post season readiness. Also, we play each of these teams once more after these games, so it's important to win and gain some momentum for the final matchups.

As always, GO BLAZERS!!!

Poll

What is the most likely outcome on the three game road trip? (Assuming it's not possible to beat the Spurs and lose to the Wolves)

3-0 sweep, Epic.

36 votes

2-1 loss to Spurs, Understandable.

79 votes

2-1 loss to Rockets, Acceptable.

10 votes

1-2 only beat T'Wolves. Regrettable.

34 votes

0-3 collapse. Blasphemous.

2 votes

161 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

I toe the Nate Line.

Every game is of them same importance. You need to take every game at face value. A WIN IS A WIN. Every game counts the same ,A win is a win. Nate has it right. You need to play every game, as the the one that gets you over the hump!

COMCAST SUCKS!!

by shamman on Feb 23, 2009 12:21 AM PST reply actions 1 recs

Same here

View every game as a “we need to get this one” and go out there and give your all for it.

Statistically, we should win the Minnesota game.

Our odds are probably <50% to win against Houston and <50% to win against SA, but hopefully we’ll at least pick up one of them. If we pick up both, that would be awesomely swell.

Want more aggressiveness? Try less Baylesslessness.

by prezofdeath on Feb 23, 2009 12:40 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

every games important

were fighting for playoff positioning with good teams and it would be a disaster if we lost to a bad team.

I am starting the coalition to BRING BACK IKE.

by DNP (CD) on Feb 23, 2009 1:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly.

This week can shift our playoff picture in a major way, just like any week. However, you have to tip your hat to the thought that losses this week are pretty big, as we come home next weekend to face San Antonio again. If we lose all the games on the road trip plus the home game, we’re out of the playoffs that quickly and tags like “failed season” will begin to appear.

I think Portland does have something to prove here, not so much because of the teams this week, but because it’s a road trip. We’ve looked horrible on the road recently, and now is a great time to turn it around.

by hotstuffdb22 on Feb 23, 2009 6:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd say 50% for Houston

TMac is done for the year. It depends on if Oden plays or not. My only concern is that Von Wafer and Ike Diogu might play against the Blazers with a little extra motivation.

by DonkeyShins on Feb 23, 2009 7:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Did Ike end up in Texas?

thought he was in sacremento?

"..[Travis Outlaw] could jump, grab a rafter, eat a sandwich, and then dunk.."
tmundal 12/30/07

by LetsBlaze on Feb 23, 2009 7:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

yup

he’s in Sacramento.

by Cablinasian on Feb 23, 2009 7:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

They are 15-6 this year

without T-Mac.

It will probably really help if Greg plays against Yao.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Feb 23, 2009 8:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Durrr...

Sorry. Brain fart.

I meant Ime Udoka…since he’s at S.A.

by DonkeyShins on Feb 23, 2009 11:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

3-0 fantastic 2-1 great 1-2 acceptable 0-3 makes frowny faces

That’s my take. We’re in pretty good shape as long as we keep it up.

Anyone else feel as though the trade deadline passing has brought some new life for these young Blazers? Maybe I’m projecting but these last couple of games it appears as though we have been taking care of business the right way. Could also have been the rest from the break.

by ryryslyry on Feb 23, 2009 12:34 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

We don’t need more than one win, and two would be superb.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Feb 23, 2009 1:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yep.

and Yep.

Give the man his "M"!!!

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Feb 23, 2009 11:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

everyone one said phoenix was back to their old ways when they beat clippers twice in a row...

oops

by Tofu Anonymous on Feb 23, 2009 12:48 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I'd be really ecstatic if we won all 3.

If this was the pre ASW blazers, I think I would be content with 1-2. But with Blake back and the distraction of the trade deadline over, there is no excuse for anything but 100% effort in executing our gameplan. If we can do that, I think we definitely have the talent to beat an injury depleted Houston and SA, bridging the veteran experience of those guys. Minnesota will be an important game as well, although just as with the last road trip, the “easiest” game is at the end. I’d much prefer to play Minny at the beginning so we get a potential trap game out of the way.

by premthegrem on Feb 23, 2009 12:51 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I think we lose to the Spurs because it's the end of a back to back

I hope we win @Houston though. Not much else to say about that. Ummm, hopefully Artest doesn’t hit the broad side of a barn and Yao turns in another stinker like the first time these teams played.

"It’s a good ol’ fashioned Rip City beat down!"

by Magnum on Feb 23, 2009 12:58 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Spurs also will be on a back to back

and Manu is out. Still, advantage to them, but we’ve got a chance.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Feb 23, 2009 1:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry forgot to add the poll

Also, I acknowledge that every game is important. In fact that’s in the beginning and end of the post. What we are discussing is the semantics of basketball. Although every game is important, they seem to be important for different reasons. I personally think that a loss to San Antonio would be less catastrophic than a loss to Houston. And losing to Houston and Minny, but beating San Antonio would show inconsistency, while losing to San Antonio and Houston while beating the wolves would be a step backwards developmentally.

In fact I think the greater impact of these games on the post season make them not just more important, but also better indicators of where the team is headed. Let’s hope the all signs point to playoffs.

Blazers Prophecy.
3-5 championships in next decade.
You heard it here first.

by mjm6783 on Feb 23, 2009 12:58 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

i say we dont need to "prove" anything

i hate this whole, statement game, prove who we are, blah blah stuff.

i mean home court against the rockets is important and that has nothing to do with proving anything. lets just make the playoffs and then worry about all this other stuff.

by Blazerland on Feb 23, 2009 1:33 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed. Here's what's really important for a playoff-bound team:

The total number of wins at the end of the season, which shows how good you really are and determines your playoff seed.

How well you are playing at the end of the season.

How confident you are in your game.

How healthy you are.

by MiledAnimal on Feb 23, 2009 10:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If we beat the Rockets and Wolves

I will be happy as a puppy.

Karma

by Sabonis4Ever on Feb 23, 2009 2:14 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

NOT acceptable!

1 of 3 is not acceptable and it’s time we stop pretending it is. If the good people here in Blazerland caught wind of someone in the Rockets organization saying something like, “All we have to do is take care of business to beat this inferior Blazer team,” we would all be up in arms and ordering up an inquiry from David Stern and President Obama. So why do we take the same attitude ourselves?

What gets me is that we want to be thought of as an elite team but we refuse to think of ourselves as an elite team. We collectively not only don’t expect to beat the Rockets or the Spurs, we don’t even give ourselves a 50/50 chance.

I’m here to tell you this team is as good as the Rockets and is to the point where the Spurs can’t even think of looking past us. Now it’s time for us to start thinking that way.

"You are never (fanatically) dedicated to something you have complete confidence in." Robert Pirsig

by -ken on Feb 23, 2009 2:33 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Maybe but possibly realistic

Last time it was a last second shot that won the game for the Blazers. I think we will fare better this time because the depth chart is different, (although I would like to have Oden back if at all possible). I’m not saying it’s likely we will lose to the Rockets, but you have to admit that it’s possible, especially on the road. I’m all for saying “The Blazers are the better team” but that doesn’t make it true, winning the season series and beating the Rockets in the Playoffs will make it true.

We are a young team playing well beyond their assumed level of maturity. Each step we take is a test, because for these guys it’s unknown territory. Luckily for us, we have a calm determined coach, and a calm determined Superstar. I think WHEN we make the playoffs (I hope that’s optimistic enough), we will be a nightmarish matchup for opposing teams. In a seven game series, anything can happen.

Blazers Prophecy.
3-5 championships in next decade.
You heard it here first.

by mjm6783 on Feb 23, 2009 3:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I didn't make myself clear...

not that this is the first time that’s happened…

I know we are going to lose games. I know we aren’t yet championship caliber. This isn’t the point.

The point is that losing should never be acceptable. We should never take the mindset that 1 of 3 is an acceptable outcome. This mindset is the next step and I think it’s time the Blazers take it.

I contend that the main difference between Jordan and Drexler was not so much in talent but in mindset. Drexler went about his day to day business and did so very, very well. Jordan REFUSED to accept losing.

Mickleson has all the tools that Tiger has. But Tiger refuses to accept 2nd place as acceptable.

I’m talking mental toughness. I think it’s as important as physical toughness.

"You are never (fanatically) dedicated to something you have complete confidence in." Robert Pirsig

by -ken on Feb 23, 2009 4:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

+25 for Ken

They should expect to win every game through hard nosed execution . . .

The mindset is what allows the talent to be expressed…

Will Yao be able to chase LMA down the floor if he’s our 5? NO

Will SA veterans be able to keep up with us if we set a fast tempo for 4 quarters and play 10 deep? NO

We should expect to win each of those games and save “accepting” losses as hindsight – -

In fact we should expect and PLAN to beat the living CRAP out of them on their home floors, setting the stage to dominate them in the playoffs..

AIM HIGH!!

"..[Travis Outlaw] could jump, grab a rafter, eat a sandwich, and then dunk.."
tmundal 12/30/07

by LetsBlaze on Feb 23, 2009 8:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

2-2 this week

would maintain our playoff challenge by not losing ground in a very tough week (Rockets, Spurs twice, at Minnesota).

3-1 would be superb, and go a long way toward a 4 seed or better.

This is a very tough week. Perhaps the easiest of the road games will be the Houston one (they’ll be tired by the time they get to Minnesota). You have to go out there and try to get that one. A win there sets the tone for the trip — lose it, and you are under pressure, you need a win the next night at S.A. Win it, and you go into S.A. knowing you’ve already done what you needed, and now you’ve got a chance to really send out a message and make a run for a high seed.

Notice that Nate, after the game, wasn’t talking about how New Orleans or Houston is doing, he talked about Denver. He knows this thing is in reach if we can have a strong trip.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Feb 23, 2009 7:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

To add onto this... Nate smells the "coach of the year" award right now. It's within reach if the team keeps up at the current pace.

The “steaks” are huge here. Especially since they’ll be in Texas!!!

by hotstuffdb22 on Feb 23, 2009 8:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Just because the fans think it,

doesn’t mean it’s gonna happen. I am a total homer myself , suprememly optomistic ,and loyal but i’m not gonna be upset by just loosin a game to a good team. Did I really want the PTB to beat the celtics in Boston? Yeah. Did it happen? no.

I will get more upset if the PTB repeat idotic mistakes and don’t show signs of improvement over the last matchups.

With that said though, I definately think that we can go 3-0. I just wouldn’t be extremely upset if we played and lost a close and tough game to the Spurs. If we aren’t competitive at all, and look like we don’t belong, then that would be unacceptable.

"Every time Troutlaw touches the ball, I pop an anti-anxiety pill."

by DaNoose on Feb 23, 2009 2:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

THERE ARE NO BIG GAMES

but these three are especially big

by northwestj on Feb 23, 2009 7:35 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

ha

NWJ speaks true

Then I rose, wiping the blunts ash from my clothes
Then froze only to blow the herb smoke through my nose

by Illmatic88 on Feb 23, 2009 11:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I wish the games were reversed.

I’d rather have Houston on the tail end of a back to back than the Spurs. I think Houston will be craving revenge for that heartbreaking loss they endured. And San Antonio…well, they always give Portland trouble, especially on the road. Realisticly, I see us going 1-2.

"Respect everyone, fear no one." -TP

by Arby on Feb 23, 2009 9:52 AM PST reply actions 0 recs