Rational Perspective on Trade Deadline

Let’s look at the RLEC from a different perspective:

1) Almost everyone thought that Portland was going to make a move. Miles’ $ really cramped our cap room and increased the pressure to make a deal. In fact, many assumed that KP had to make a deal.

2) Opposing GMs have to be very wary of Pritchard. These guys have very healthy egos and many are well aware of the fact that KP has come out of many trades looking like the guy who got the best end of the bargain.

3) The Darius memo caused some bad feelings around the league. KP, unfairly or not, is perceived as being a bit cocky by many around the league and in the media.

4) Combine 1, 2, and 3 above, and you have a scenario that undoubtedly drove teams to try to drive an especially hard bargain with the Blazers.

Based on what we know about the offers on the table, I think KP made the right choice in choosing long term patience over short term gain. Not only is this true in terms of the long term excellence of the team, but by sticking to his guns, he will make it less likely that opposing GMs will try to play chicken with him in the future. KP proved that he will not flinch under pressure and make a move just to get something done.

Moneyball teaches that aging stars are frequently over-valued, both monetarily and on the floor. Keeping good, young, home-grown talent is almost always less expensive than trading for declining stars. Obviously, veteran leadership is very important, and something that the Blazers lack, but it needs to be the right vet, at the right price, with the right time horizon.

Finally, I would say that the decision to stand pat is analogous to the concept of the “future value of money.” $12 million for RLEC seems obviously greater than $7 million in cap space, however that $7 million can be combined with contracts to create a number nearly as large and gives the team greater flexibility. In a deeply distressed economy, their may be significant downward pressure on contracts. Deflation means that $7 mil + contracts this summer may actually have more value than $12 mil had at the trade deadline.

Like most of you, I am a bit disappointed, but I would have been really bummed if we had traded away Batum, Bayless, or Rudy for a vet in decline. I have even changed my mind a bit on Trout over the past month. He seems to be gradually improving his shot selection, and he seems to be doing a bit better on the boards. If he continues to improve, even marginally, in his understanding of how to use his enormous physical talents, we may ultimately be very glad we hung on to him.

Seems more than possible to me that everybody but PA wanted to trade. Especially in light of the Martell news (which not coincidentally was only revealed after trade negotiations ended). By making any of the trades most of us were hoping for, PA would have owed much more money than by not making a trade. We have been spoiled by having PA as owner, as he has almost always spent what was necessary to improve the team. This time, in these financial crises times, after losing many millions of dollars, and realizing that we would probably make the playoffs anyway, and we wouldn’t challenge for a title even w/ a new SF, he decided to save money for himself. Can hardly blame him. We experienced, for this time, at least, what fans of most other teams have to live with constantly.
I have absolutely no info that confirms this theory, but it sure seems more probable than KP and Nate saying let’s squander this golden RLEC and play out the rest of the season and possibly the playoffs with inadequate small forwards.