A quick rundown of '09 possibilities.
*Note* This is not a trade thread, don't delete me!
Here are some of the options that I think are at least remotely plausible in '09.
Andrei Kirilenko $15,106,000.00 I could see us taking AK47 off the Jazz's hands in a lopsided trade, maybe we could even pry away the NY pick?
Mike Bibby $14,983,603.00 I doubt we pick up Bibby
Vince Carter $14,724,125.00 3rd time's a charm? What if we pickup VC w/o having to give up anybody?
Gilbert Arenas $14,653,466.00 Only if the Wiz decide to blow it up.
Chris Bosh $14,410,581.00 In a lopsided trade for LMA, only on here for Dave Deckard
Richard Jefferson $13,200,000.00 Again, we could possibly have them without giving up our guys in the summer, doubt we do this though.
Jason Richardson $12,222,221.00 If the Suns want under the tax, here is an easy way to do it. J Rich and 1st round pick to PDX for Channing Frye sized contract and filler.
Baron Davis $11,250,000.00 They wanna dump him, doubt we want him.
Kirk Hinrich $10,000,000.00 Don't need to send much back to make this happen if we want. Could even do a straight up Blake for Hinrich trade if we wanted.
Antawn Jamison $9,923,285.00 Doubt we'd do this, maybe for a 1st rounder.
Andre Miller $9,900,000.00 We could pick him up for way less than his current deal I'd bet
Tayshaun Prince $9,500,000.00 Let me dread dammit
Gerald Wallace $9,500,000.00 Again, we could possibly have them without giving up our guys in the summer.
Josh Howard $9,450,000.00 Dallas has a high payroll, but he's kinda a knuckle head
Luol Deng $9,385,000.00 Doubt this happens too
Caron Butler $9,249,980.00 Only if the Wiz decide to blow it up.
Mike Dunleavy $9,000,000.00 We could pick him up for spare parts the way Granger is playing. Maybe get a pick.
Stephen Jackson $7,140,000.00 He's crazy, but he's good.
Hedo Turkoglu $6,864,200.00 Bad shooting %, good passing skills. We could at least drive up the price Orlando pays.
Ben Gordon $6,404,749.00 Doubt this happens too
Shane Battier $6,373,900.00 Some lust for him
Anderson Varejao $5,784,480.00 A good Backup 4
Marvin Williams $5,636,142.00 With Atlanta's ownership situation, you never know
Reggie Evans $4,640,000.00 A Mean backup 4
Anthony Parker $4,550,000.00 A utility player with good BB IQ
Raymond Felton $4,148,715.00 Prob could get him, do we want him?
Josh Childress $4,036,962.00 If he wants to come back and has an OK ACL
Carl Landry $3,000,000.00 YES please. Good backup 4, could probably be had for about MLE
Brandan Wright $2,497,320.00 Could get him by taking on a bad contract, or using TE TE Eligible
Joe Alexander $2,403,120.00 Could get him by taking on a bad contract, or using TE TE Eligible
Julian Wright $1,869,600.00 Could get him by taking on a bad contract, or using TE TE Eligible
Linas Kleiza $1,824,493.00 Meh TE Eligible
David Lee $1,788,033.00 Doubt this happens too TE Eligible
Anthony Randolph $1,709,280.00 Could get him by taking on a bad contract, or using TE TE Eligible
Nick Young $1,602,960.00 Could get him by taking on a bad contract, or using TE TE Eligible
Ime Udoka $1,080,000.00 The prodigal returns TE Eligible
Ramon Sessions $711,517 What we might pick up by letting the Bucks keep Jefferson.
Keep in mind that the under the cap teams competing with us in '09 for free agents or all ready signed players are the Thunder, Grizz, Pistons, Raptors, and maybe the Hawks.
We need a SF and a PG,
Thunder : KD and Westbrook, Probably will look for a Center or true PF, maybe open to trading Green
Grizz: O.J. Mayo/Conley, and Gay. Prob won't make many moves, probably will get sold.
Pistons: Stuckey and Prince, Prob will look for bigs or a SG.
Raptors: Calderon and Marion. Might try to get a younger wing. Need a Center.
Hawks: Could use a PG if Bibby walks.
In other words, there shouldn't be a whole lot of competition for non-FA 3's and 1's. So if we make a bid for G. Wallace, I doubt anyone bids against us. We'd be pretty much the only SF buyers who could take a large contract. At PG there is a little more competition, but not a lot. It looks like we go into the summer in a better spot than where we stood at the deadline. If we somehow manage to appeal all or part of Miles 9mil, we will be impact players. Remember, the TE eligible means we could pick them up for just the TE. So we could arrange a trade where we pick up an awesome young player for the TE and in a separate trade, take on a bad contract with the cap space, or cap space + talent. As the economy worsens, it appears that we may be the only buyers for good SF or PG players with long contracts on non-contending teams that are looking to cut payroll. All that, plus teams trying to get under the cap for the "Summer of almost coulda had LeBron or DWade" AND the bidding that will already be going on for a solid FA class should really put us in the drivers seat. After thorough analysis, I think that standing pat may have been the best move.
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Very detailed breakdown
Maybe I’m just a homer, but next season I think the 1 and 3 are less of issues because batum and bayless are on their second year and I’m comfortable with each of them starting and playing big minutes with this being an elite (60 win) team. If Martell is able to play, that definitely helps. How will Greg Oden fair with another summer to finish out the recovery process on his knee? The team doesn’t have any gaping holes next year IMO, but we won’t know for sure til we see what these guys have done over the summer.
That’s why I want to see Bayless and Batum get more experience on the floor. I’m confident they (especially bayless) will be working out all summer trying to become faster and stronger, but they need the floor experience. Last night we saw bayless and rudy get called for 3 seconds when they hedged in the key on if they should double, wanting to see just one more step from the offense before committing. Experience will solve that, practice time will not.
nice breakdown
although Jeff Green is going nowhere IMO
by DominicanAvenger on Feb 21, 2009 5:11 AM PST reply actions
What is they get the #1 pick and take Griffin? Although if I’m them I think I look to trade down a pick or two and take Harden.
by danielfarrell on Feb 21, 2009 5:22 AM PST up reply actions
I heard one guy say that it is very unlikely that tayshaun is on teh pistons next year
correct me if I am wrong, but these are drade possabilities, anybody know who the marquee free agents are going to be this summer?
bayless leaves over my dead body
yeah that was Gavin on the podcast
but he also said that he will not be cheap, none of this we will give you cap relief and Travis stuff, more like, “You start with LMA and we will not hang up on you.”
We need to pry Battier from Hou and let him teach our yungins how to play elite ball. Even last year we had the most success when we had a vet SF out there and he was directing traffic and making sure that spacing was being kept and if we get Battier, we should have almost everything that JJ33 (a little drop in 3pt %) brings but adds in outstanding D.
Plus with him being older he probably would not mind playing fewer minutes and helping out the kids learn 20-25min a pop.
"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08
Nice, thanks!
Looks like we won’t have any problem getting our back-up 4 (If Freeland stays in Europe). Bass and Wilcox are unrestricted FAs. If we want, we could also get Juan Navarro’s rights for cheap, probably, or just sign him outright and bet the Grizz won’t match.
I’m leaning towards staying put at the 3, and see how Martell does coming back. And see if Batum can shoot 1000 jumpers a day in the summer and make other teams sad when they leave him open on the perimeter. This changes if Prince or Grainger becomes available for cheap, of course.
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Feb 22, 2009 10:09 AM PST up reply actions
Forget about Juan Carlos Navarro. He has a very very expensive buy-out in Spain.
Sergio + Rudy = 16
Sergio + Bayless = 16
Batum 8+8=16
several of these are FA's or RFAs
Blazer's fan since '84, Spurs fan when they are not playing Portland.
↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → B A
Why do we need a point guard? From a cost/benefit perspective, nobody who is available is better than Blake.
Miller is not twice as good as Blake.
"I would never die for my beliefs because I might be wrong." -Bertrand Russell
Just showing the options
Blazer's fan since '84, Spurs fan when they are not playing Portland.
↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → B A
cash in on roy....
trade him and Oden for kobe and bynum.
/s :)
The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.
bookmarked
Tremendous analysis, a one-stop shopping list.
Wouldn’t everybody like to know who KP’s “target” is?
I like how you included the decimal point in the salary
Andre Miller $9,900,000.00
My NBA contract would be $9,900,000.99
And if they didn’t throw in that extra 99 cents I’d pull a Vince Carter and quit on my team…
The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave
Oh and btw, the bottom rundown shows how little competition we will have for SF's and PGs
didn’t know if I made that clear.
Blazer's fan since '84, Spurs fan when they are not playing Portland.
↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → B A
I'd just like to add a couple additional free agents...
UFA’s
Brandon Bass
Trevor Ariza
RFA’s
Leon Powe
Paul Millsap
Ah
Ariza is a possibility.
Cuban likes Bass and will probably pay to keep him.
Powe is a tad too undersized IMO (he’s about 6’5") but he really can hustle.
I think Jazz keep millsap and let boozer walk.
but who knows? thanks for adding them
Blazer's fan since '84, Spurs fan when they are not playing Portland.
↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → B A
by HurraKane212 on Feb 21, 2009 12:25 PM PST up reply actions
Cuban can't offer Bass more than the MLE
Even if they let Kidd walk away. That could be a real chance, to get him at a lower cost than Joel and at about the same it would cost to extend Channing.
Brandon is one of those quiet assassins. - Chris Paul
I don't believe that...
but if its true, just flat out sign Bass to the 6-8 million we have. You’d never regret having a player like him on your team. Especially not with Joel right beside him coming off the bench. You’d still have plenty of money in expiring deals to do that last piece PG or SF (Blake 4.0, Outlaw 3.6, Rodriguez 1.6, Koponen 0.8) which would allow you to take back a salary of 12.5 Million.
They stand at $71 million without Kidd (and just 10 players), clearly over any cap
They could waive Stackhouse to save 5 million from his contract (only 2 are guaranteed), but I would rather expect them to try and trade him for something. The Mavs will have a little cap space in 2010 (Damp’s last year is not guaranteed) and could have a lot in 2011, not earlier.
Brandon is one of those quiet assassins. - Chris Paul
Don't they have Bird-Rights on him (allowing them to go over the cap to sign him)?
In 2010 they could be a max player short of the cap level… provided they don’t give Bass a contract.
I don't think so
He was drafted by the Hornets in 2005, then signed by the Mavs as a free agent in 2007. Since he was only under contract for two years, I can’t see how he could have obtained Bird rights. They might have “Early Bird rights”, but that doesn’t help since his salary is now so low that 175% of his previous salary is still lower than the average salary (whichever is greater). So no matter if they use early bird rights or the MLE, I can’t see how they can offer him more than ca. $6 million and as an unrestricted free agent they can’t match offers. He likes it in Dallas, but I’m sure he could learn to like it in Portland playing for good money and a good team.
Brandon is one of those quiet assassins. - Chris Paul
Exactly, the Dallas Mavericks will have just Early Bird rights on Brandon Bass ...
this off-season. I’m not a huge proponent of Bass, however, for he’s soft on offense — especially when compared to someone such as Leon Powe, who usually puts it up from close range — and is also subpar on defense.
I don't necessarily disagree about Powe being better
but considering that whomever comes in at PF off the bench is going to be playing with Przy, they would be well served to have a good jump shot. And Bass’s jump shot isn’t just good, its great. Like, by far the best guy his at his position at his age, great. Powe can’t shoot a jumper to save his life, and neither can Przy, and that could be a problem.
You're right that Brandon Bass would be a better fit next to Joel Przybilla.
I doubt that Bass or Leon Powe are likely signings this off-season, although they’re possibilities.
I think Bass is actually possible
He can shoot, he’s a little bit mean, and he’s a quality guy.
Powe isn’t going anywhere, and I’m not sure he’s high on KP’s list. KP never has liked undersized guys.
Wilcox would be a decent choice if Bass is gone.
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Feb 22, 2009 10:12 AM PST up reply actions
In a few years
We’ll get those ring-hungry vets.
Like Barkley back in the early 90s.
Those guys who want to win, don’t care where they move to get their chance, and let it be known.
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Feb 22, 2009 10:25 AM PST up reply actions
If we could get Bass I would be very happy
But I would still be a little apprehensive about our PG situation…
I think this team is done drafting for starters, but I think there are a few backup PF tough, rebounding types that could be had around where we are picking, or at least low enough that we may be able to move up without giving up much, so I’d probably rather try to use our draft pick to help with the backup PF need, and save the cap space for a veteran PG or SF.
I think it's time
To go the FAgent route. No more integrating draft picks.
Now we’ll see if KP is a truly great GM or just a Turn-Around GM who can bring you out of Lottery-Hell, but can’t get over the Elite hump. Sad to say, we’ll have to find out the same thing about Nate.
I think both guys are up to the task, but it’s not written in stone.
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Feb 22, 2009 10:16 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah, that's great to say
But we wont be able to afford to sign upgrades at PG and SF and backup PF… and my point is that, of any of those needs, backup PF is much more likely to be met where we will be drafting. We have the pick, we are going to use it on something—we should never get to a point where the team is done “integrating draft picks”—then we’ll end up like Phoenix—giving away all those draft picks. The good teams are constantly integrating draft picks, just not for starters or key role players. I think the best course of action is to use that pick for backup PF and keep the rest of the space for SF or PG… of which I’d like to see an upgrade at PG, for reasons indicated elsewhere.
First off
I don’t really think we need an upgrade at PG or SF. I think we need a back-up PF and I want that from Free Agency. A draft pick is going to need to adjust, and he’s going to need minutes, no certainty with Nate. To draft a PG or SF would be silly- we HAVE potential at those positions already. If it’s a serious concern, trade for a low-profile vet.
I get what you’re saying about not becoming Phoenix, but at some point (like now) you need to stop stockpiling picks and young studs, and actually pull the cake out of the oven. New blood is always good, but for a few years down the road, not because it’s needed now. And unless you’re Euro-stashing, no more than one rook a year. It’s a totally different mindset and one I hope KP is up for.
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Feb 22, 2009 11:20 AM PST up reply actions
I agree that drafting at PG or SF would be silly
And I do think exactly that we should trade for a vet, at the PG position. If we do, and Martell comes back, and Batum and Oden improve, then we can make it just fine with a drafted back-up PF, and could probably limp along one more year with the guys we have.
I think it would be a big mistake to use up all of our major flexibility on a non-starter.
This year we have a much better shot at drafting a PG than a PF
It could be one of the deepest PG drafts in quite some time, and many of them fit our needs perfectly.
Maybe true
But unless we get a top pick somehow, any of those PGs are going to be long term projects, and will be hit or miss.
In general, it’s a lot harder to hit with PGs in the late first round than it is with someone you need to be a backup PF.
Agreed
There are very few Chris Paul’s in the world, who can come in and lead a pro team right away.
I think it’s the flip side of not picking up a guy who’s too old for our window. We’re at the point where guys may be too YOUNG for our window, when you figure in development time.
I’m happy with Bayless as our long-term answer. The guy needs to see the floor better, he needs to play better team D. Both of those things come naturally with experience. The things you can’t teach- speed, aggressiveness, assassin-mentality- he already has in abundance.
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Feb 22, 2009 12:07 PM PST up reply actions
very good list up top...
Ariza is a possibility.
Cuban likes Bass and will probably pay to keep him.
Powe is a tad too undersized IMO (he’s about 6’5") but he really can hustle.
I think Jazz keep millsap and let boozer walk.
I doubt the L*kers let Ariza go, but forcing the price up hurts them. I’m for that.
Cuban loves Bass, but if they pay the 7-8 million that we could, he’ll ruin his chance for any of the 2010 FA’s. That might be too much to sacrifice. Bass is 12th best player in the league at hitting 2 point jumpers (between Calderon and Okur), in addition to his hustle, that would be a near perfect fit on our second unit next to Przy.
Powe is the opposite of that, but with his hustle still a great fit. While he is only 6’8" (<—-not 6’5") he has a 7’2" wingspan, which seems to be the more important number these days. He currently is the 3rd best player in the NBA at grabbing offensive rebounds (16), and 80 of his shots come from the paint.
I’d put money on the Jazz not letting Millsap go as well. But we can at least make them earn it by offering him that full amount.
For Powe that should read
He grabs 16% of the shots his team misses on the offensive end (incredible), and he gets 80% of his shots from inside the paint (also top 10).
Why it takes away the % I’ll never know, which makes the fact you can’t edit your posts even more dumb.
very nice
I want deng or butler, and would be ok with heinrich(sp?) but might prefer sessions, althow I havent seen him play much, so he’s kind of an unknown (for me). I’ve allways liked Kirilenko but hes a slightly better version of outlow and I dont see us needing what he offers. I’m not big on battier at all and ime can stay gone for all I care. I don’t like how he reportedly tried to muscell KP for more loot then he was worth.
Man, we should forfeit before roy’s hammy explodes, knocking him into LMA’s ear who loses his balance and hits Greg’s knee… - HurraKane212
http://www.nba.com/news/miles_10_080919.html
If you like Sessions
What do you think of Navarro? They’re pretty similar, and Navarro is buds with Rudy.
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Feb 22, 2009 10:18 AM PST up reply actions
I was tryin to remember his name the other day for a conversation
but I keep thinking that he’s going back to spain after this year for some reason. I guess maybe, but i like sergio better, I had navarro on 2k8 and could never play well with him, lol
Man, we should forfeit before roy’s hammy explodes, knocking him into LMA’s ear who loses his balance and hits Greg’s knee… - HurraKane212
http://www.nba.com/news/miles_10_080919.html
I like the post
But I am amazed at how few of these guys I would be happy if we traded for them.
by twggyy on Feb 21, 2009 12:48 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Adding Martell Webster back to the line-up is an upgrade...
I think this post is off, as I don’t believe our weaknesses are at starting PG at all, nor do I think bringing in a new Small Forward is as pressing to the Blazers Brass as it is to bloggers on this website. I think backup PF/C for the future is a key slot on this roster that nobody seems to be discussing.
SF: At age 22 and really not playing at all this season, bringing back Martell Webster, the 2007-2008 starting small forward and team leader in 3’s and defensive hustle guy will be a nice addition… especially when you consider Portland resigned him and have him under contract for 5 more seasons at around $3.5 Million per. There are lots of people who are in love with Batum, but lets not forget what we have at the three with Martell. And Batum as as even younger (19) second unit wingman. There is always super 6th-man Travis Outlaw to play the 3 as well. Travis does lack consistency, but also has rare athleticism (even on NBA standards) and can really light it up. Travis has been playing the PF on the second unit ahead of Channing Frye and gets good mismatches there with his speed and hops. But Travis also has a good contract and likely wouldn’t be worth a lot more as long as he remains a key bench scorer for the Blazers. This trio definitely gives KP and Nate enough talent, firepower, defense and upside in the small forward position.
PG: Sergio has developed nicely this year and still has market value in a trade. Jarryd Bayless, however, I believe has captured fans hearts with his firey passionate play and would be a KILLER duo with Brandon Roy as guards who can draw contact, finish at the rim, and hit free throws down the stretch. Sergio is already killing Bayless’ developmental time so I would like to see him dealt. Besides, Steve Blake is not only a solid starter, but a lot of players who we could bring in are mostly debateable whether or not they would be an upgrade on this team. Consider that 1.) Roy needs the ball in his hand as much as we need Roy to have it 2.) Blake and Roy have an excellent on-floor chemistry together 3.) Blake doesn’t mess up our books withan overpriced contract 4.) Blakes has improved his 3-pt efficiency, lowered his turnovers, upgraded his defense and gives the Blazers a solid toughness… not only that but I don’t see Blake having any problem if he were to get demoted to a second unit guard. It is very devateable that Hienrich, or Bibby, or Andre Miller.. Ridnour is not, Arenas or B.Davis both have contracts and ego’s that would ruin what we have… Felton would be the only real upgrade that I can see over Blake, but Blake’s game and future fits with the evolution of this existing roster so well.
Back-up Power Forward/Center is where we should be looking. A player like Carl Landry
or Leon Powe would be a good roster addition, especially since Nate really has Travis as our back-up 4 right now. It does help that we get the muscle and hustle in the paint from Joel Pryzbilla, but we will need something different there in the future.
Overall I like the roster Portland has, and while I think Jason Richardson, Richard Jefferson, and Gerald Wallace are good players, I am glad KP didn’t rotate a bunch of players out and in since we really don’t know what we have yet. Maybe after we see what this roster can do in a playoff series… and taking in consideration their age and where they should be come next season, then I believe KP will make a smart move…. to me, not making a move was the best move.
Waiting and targeting the right player to fit the CORE that is going to be here long-term is the most important thing. So what if people want to blow up this core and get “better” players… I don’t believe the grass is always greener, in fact I find the grass to be pretty green here in the Northwest!!!
by Portland Dynasty on Feb 21, 2009 2:53 PM PST reply actions 5 recs
This is a real nice post
Pretty much what I would have said. Especially the first part about not really needing sf and point help and yes to a massive enforcement PF and a 3rd center option should Greg or Zilla go down.
What I don’t agree with is getting rid of Sergio. I’m a huge Bayless fan but I value Sergio just as much. I’ve been complaining about how Nate rotates them. I’d like all three to get time every night. Blake doesn’t need to play 35 minutes. Let’s get them all time and keep fresh legs in at all time. Both Sergio and Bayless then can develop in game action. Playoffs are going to be a very big showcase for all of our Blazers. Well the one’s not named Slav and Ruffin.
by Blazersaurus on Feb 21, 2009 5:31 PM PST up reply actions
We may already have the guy you want
in Joel Freeland. Might be a year or two away from really contributing, so we might be looking for a vet at PF for a couple years.
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
I think Freeland is on our radar
But not for a few years.
He may come over this year, but he’ll be a practice dummy for a few years.
Of course I said the same thing about Batum, even suggesting that he’d be better served in Euro-league, so my opinion is suspect.
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Feb 22, 2009 10:20 AM PST up reply actions
It's hard to say
His position depends less on polish than Batum’s. Not if he’s starting, but as a backup PF/C, no big deal. He’ll only play center in the next 2 years if Greg or Joel is hurt. He’ll only play 10 mpg at backup PF, if that. He’ll get Channing minutes next year if he comes (unless we make another trade).
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
I would love that
Freeland as our back-up 4 and emergency 3, but only if he can play D, shoot an open 16ft jumper, and likes to punish people physically. Otherwise, I’ll wait until he’s ready, and get a short-term back-up 4 from Free Agency.
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Feb 22, 2009 11:23 AM PST up reply actions
This is indeed a nice post but...
This is a nice post worthy of being it’s own “fanpost” and I would welcome discussion on your thesis. It is provocative and includes a nice run-down on the players which I think is fair and accurate and I agree with all you said except back-up power forward paragraph.
Despite describing individual players you do not complete your thesis. With’ regard to PF/C you don’t say why you think we ‘need something different there in the future’. With regard to pg not being our weakness this calls for a position to position comparison to find the position that has the greatest weakness but you do not do that. And just stating names that can play at the SF without comparing them to SF around the league doesn’t support your thesis that there is no need at SF. We could have 20 players at SF and still not have an adequate one.
Here is why everyone talks about the PG and SF are the most obvious positions in need of upgrade. Of course if you make any move you also have to compare cost to benefit, and you do make several points of how making a change also has costs involved. But focusing in on just where our greatest needs are lets take the homeboy and qualitative analysis out for a minute and look at it quantitatively. Hollingers PER is not perfect but its very good and it will definitely serve to make it clear why we are focused on PG and SF.
There are 30 teams in the league therefore 30 starters. A starting player of rank 15 -16 would be considered an average starter; below 15 a below average starter; above 15 an above starter.
Portland’s starters approximate ranking by postion:
SG at top (3rd)
PF above average (around 13th)
Center above average (around 12)
PG below average (below 20)
SF does not rank as a starter
Other players at SF:
Martel : Last year he ranked about 45 which is about average for a back up SF
Travis: PER a little over 15 which makes him a very poor starter or an excellent backup
Rudy: PER not much better than Travis.
So if you compare by position its easy to see where the Blazers feel they have the best chance at improving a position. It’s where their players rank the least favorably with other players around the league, PG and SF, which are also the only positions that have below average productivity.
Now for our back up Center and Power Forward positions.
CENTER: Joel, has ranked as high as about 12th and only recently went below 20th. an excellent back up would rank in the low 30s. Joel is off the scale good for a back up and most season has been average for as a starter. This is a fantastic luxury at the position where our starter has missed the most games.
PF: Travis, again his PER makes him a top back up PF.
So we have above average starters and top notch back-ups at the center and power forward positions. For back ups we need guys that accept roles and do not cost much money relatively speaking. Improving upon the PF, which would require us to bring in someone who is a legitimate starter elsewhere in order to be better than Travis at the position would cost more than the position warrants.
by mrwonderfulone on Feb 21, 2009 10:58 PM PST up reply actions
btw
I’m not down on our players at these positions just explaining why most of the discussion is at pg and sf. I’m just as much a homey as anyone. I like all of our players. I’m impressed with how much Blake and Sergio both have improved their games. I’ve dreaded trading away Martel and Travis before their potential was realized, and I like the raw talent in Batum and Bayless. I love Frye as well but have to say from a basketball standpoint he is the only guy performing less well than I expected. My friendly advice to him, if he wants to play is to get a back to the basket game.
by mrwonderfulone on Feb 21, 2009 11:10 PM PST up reply actions
Good Point on comparing the positions to the league... BUT,
But if this team in Portland is going to become what we all want it to be, we can’t be over-concerned with what/where players are at right now… Portland is kinda forced to look two years down the road because of the Oden-Factor. If Oden really is the right pick that is going to anchor a championship winning team (which I believe he is), we know he is not going be full-force until mid-season next year. That is our window… plus Portland has the true youngest roster in the league that still needs a little more tweaking to the rotation and developing of the FOUR rookies that are playing major roles right now. Just because you can look at stats and say “Yes there definitely to be higher on this list at this position” only tells part of the story.
Simply saying that, compared to OTHER teams, our PG slot and SF slot are less impactful than our opponents doesn’t tell the real story and would be undervaluing the EFFORTS that the Portland Brass has been putting in to build this young talent and financial flexibility. Obviously SF positioin can IMPROVE, but with young/highly-talented players like Webster and Batum, and Outlaw too, there will be improvement next year and the year after for sure without making a move. Whereas we do not have that clear-cut fourt post player (after LA, Oden and Pryz), it is clear that Frye’s game doesn’t give the team what they are lacking in post defense and scoring, the fit requires improvement, not the PER stats. Same with Sergio, I like the kid and undoubtedly he has NBA game, but it just seems too much that his fit here in Portland with Nate’s defensive focus and B-Roy being the dominate ball-handler, etc. that Serg could do better for himself. Portland has done exceptionally well developing young guys, Sergio included, but his fit in the “Ultimate Portland KP-PLan” just doesn’t seem to be there.
With a little more time, KP and Nate can really boil down what the rotation would be best set at before losing the VISION and making moves that would lose young developing talent or screw up the financial flexibility.
by Portland Dynasty on Feb 22, 2009 1:55 AM PST up reply actions
I agree and disagree with both of these posts
I think it is a valid point that PG and SF are our weakest positions. It is also valid that we should not be solely looking at right now, but thinking ahead. That said, I think that SF is not drastically in need of an upgrade in terms of a trade, but that the PG position probably is. Here’s why:
The points about young players is valid, but doesn’t really come in to play with our starting PG, Blake, who has been in the league a while, and is rated below much of the leagues other PGs even with the huge improvement he has made. With Sergio and Bayless, I GREATLY prefer Bayless, as I just don’t see Sergio being our long term answer. DOnt ask me to back that up with stats, it is purely subjective, but I think many would at least put Bayless ahead of Sergio as far as likelihood of being our potential long term starter.
But Bayless isn’t ready, and PG is, along with C, the position that probably takes the longest to develop, and at the same time has a huge impact on the game. This team’s window, with an experienced PG and, say, the improvement of LMA, Oden, Batum, and Webster healthy, begins to open next year, and Bayless will not be ready by then. Nor do I really think he will be the year after that.
With SF, however, the potential for improvement without making a personnel change is mcuh higher, in my opinion—we can get Webster back, which would help us greatly, and he is young enough to still be able to improve significantly, but has enough experience so that he’s not just a total unknown, and I think it can be reasonably expected that he will in fact continue to improve. Batum is also very young, and is years away from being ready, but he will be playing backup to Martell, so that does not seem to be a problem.
As for backup PF, PER, as is often noted, says absolutely nothing about defense, which is why Travis, while having a good PER at that position, isn’t as good as his PER would seem to indicate.
Taking into account defense also helps our SF position as well, because Webster has the chance to improve significantly defensively, and it is already a strength of Batum.
So, I think that, while both positions are our obvious candidates for upgrade right now, our SF position is less of a concern than PG. And as for PF, I think we need a backup PF who can be tough and rebound… not one who can’t defend PFs.
So I think our ideal situation, if we are to do anything, is to bring in a veteran PG who is solid defensively, who can be the PG for the next 2-4 years, or until Bayless is ready. I think this is a more pressing need and a better place to look to upgrade than SF, considering all of those factors.
As for a tough rebounding PF, rebounding is one of the things that translates best from College to the Pros, so I think we can have a good chance at getting someone who will fit this need successfully through the draft—which I think can be done relatively easily, as those kind of backup PFs tend to be available in the late first round and later.
I think we need a backup PF who can be tough and rebound
Agreed, but here’s the tricky part
If KP pursues Bass or Landry, the first thing their agent is going to ask is “where’s the PT behind LMA?” Answer: there won’t be any, unless LMA gets hurt.
What we’re asking KP to find is a rare animal. Someone who is either too young to demand PT (draft choice) or a veteran who wants to win a ring and won’t complain about PT when everyone’s healthy, but will be ready to step in and produce when someone gets hurt or there’s foul trouble to LMA, Oden and/or Pryz. depending on the matchups, Nate may play him short minutes in games when the other bigs are healthy and the opponent has a big front line, but if the opponent counters with a small lineup he may get a DNP-CD.
All of these factors led me to target Chris Wilcox before the deadline. There may be another veteran PF/C out there who will agree to these conditions (Michael Ruffin?) but we shouldn’t act like they’re commonplace.
Few questions:
Does PER account for minutes per game? Does it account for pace? And are you considering our players’ age?
I would love to see Crash on our team, but I was ecstatic we did not trade Batum to get him. Batum is special. He will undoubtedly work on his 3 pt shot over the summer to become a real threat. The kid is lanky and plays a mature game as it is. Watch out for him. I think he should be starting over a healthy Martell. But I think you have made it clear Martell would be AT LEAST an average backup (although he is still young and learning).
After tonight’s game I’m hesitant to talk about the PG position—Blake played a near perfect game—but I think we could use a solid starter. Someone with “cred” who can help players play the right way. Really I like Blake, though, so I waffle on this..but I think getting Andre Miller or Kidd (both achievable this summer) would help. In the long run, I think its hands down Bayless’ job to lose.
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
thanks for that norsk
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
That perfect fit everyone dreams of
just doesn’t exist. But there are the best available players and eventually that’s what is coming to us. That could be one of the great players like Bosh, or a journeyman like Jefferson. It’s not like players are lining up to come to sunny Portland, Oregon.
You may be surprised
I don’t think weather is a huge factor for NBA players because the weather sucks during much of the basketball season everywhere but the sunbelt cities. Not everyone is affected by the weather ( I don’t mind rain after living in the sunbelt all my life) but for those who are, rainy Portland can be more appealing than bitter cold and snowy Boston, Cleveland, New York, Detroit, Minneapolis, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Chicago or Indianapolis.
The bigger concern would be the size of the media market and playing most games when the East Coast is asleep.
Right you are
it’s hard to see a major star type player “trying” to move to the Blazers. Oh, for the money they naturally wiil, but how many do you think woulld come just to play on a good team?
everyone wants to come here
because we are the fan base that doesn’t bother the players when they eat at Sheri’s or sit back in the booth in that bar in the Pearl. We let them live their lives. We recognize them and let them move around in the world without pestering them with inane questions. – Elgin
Since when do we need to ponder to froth? - jscot
Yeah, I would think Portland is an attractive franchise to play for...
1.) The Rose Garden: this is still a state of the art arena with one of the best Jumbo-trons in the association.
2.) Fan Base: Portland leads the NBA in turnstile numbers… meaning not by “tickets sold” but by actual bodies going through the doors at every game. Yeah, this matters to guys, especially if they have played in city’s who don’t give a $h!t.
3.) Paul Allen: Same reason kids come from all over to play at U of O, is the same reason people want to play for the Blazers… rich guys really set it up nice, and that is a big deal to athletes. Paul Allen is good for the contracts they sign, and athletes get the benefits of things being done right… luxuries at the top the league.
4.) Portland’s Culture: like 22baylor said, athlete’s don’t get the paparazzi treatment in P-town, and this is a luxury that most of us can’t understand. But to those who do, this is almost priceless.
5.) Winning Culture: Remember the final scene in Jerry Maguire where Rod Tidwell is on that Sports show crying and he thanks Jerry for being his ambassador of Quan. Then Bob Sugar’s client looks at Sugar and says “why don’t we have that?” This is the same thing many players say when they are visiting opponents to Portland. They see a frenzied fan base, a young flourishing team whose management is dedicated to developing their careers like they actually matter to the franchise, a coach who is garnering mad respect from his Team USA experience, a general manager who is feared by opponents and embraced by players because they actually respect the guy in charge, all-star Brandon Roy being a viable WINNER in the league with a game/skill-set that is so diverse he could help improve MANY other all-star caliber players impact… all that said, the TrailBlazer winning culture is a rare thing in the association and other pro-sports leagues. Just as it is rare, it is sought after by the right types of players who truly understand the importance of team and desire to win CHAMPIONSHIPS.
I think Portland could land almost anyone they want.
by Portland Dynasty on Feb 22, 2009 5:45 PM PST up reply actions
We can rationalize it all we want
but Portland really isn’t all that attractive of a market for a lot of these FAs. The organization is great, but we’re still a relatively small town that has very little resemblance to where most of these guys grew up. Most of these guys grow up in inner cities or the south, which demographically look nothing like Portland. I think we all remember Greg’s blog post about how shocked all his friends would be that he was happy to be in Portland. Outside of the NW, there’s a perception of Portland as a pretty “white” city, which while it isn’t a deal breaker, isn’t super enticing to a lot of guys who grow up in the south in very different circumstances. Maybe that doesn’t matter for a player, but if he has friends and family whispering in his ear about it, he’s not going to be beating down our door to get here.
As far as the winning culture, we have a great clubhouse and great fans, but we’re not the celtics, or even (vomit *) the Lkers there. A guy isn’t going to walk into the Rose Garden and see 10 banners hanging from the rafters alongside names like Russell, Havlicek, Baylor or West. It’s just not the same seeing Gross or Petrie up there hanging in the rafters instead for a guy who isn’t connected to the Blazers.
Combine that with the fact that we don’t have the huge inherent advantage of the Texas and Florida teams (No income tax), and we’re not a super desirable FA destination. We’re not any worse than 90% of the teams, but really, outside of teams like LA/Miami/Dallas/Houston, everyone’s in pretty much the same boat. We’re above the dregs like OKC, Milwaukee and Utah, but fairly equal to everyone else, I’d say.
I wonder what the chances are
of signing Marion to a cheap deal in the Offseason?
My avatar is 3 years into the future for sure...
Best guess
chances are low. He’s not the Matrix of three years ago. Even at the peak of his game this community would not smile on him.
Why isn't Josh Childress somewhere on this list?
He has the option to come to the NBA after every year as a RFA. Speculation is that the Hawks don’t have enough money to sign him.
For Josh Childress' sake, he should've just signed the one-year, $4,844,355 qualifying offer with the ...
Atlanta Hawks that had been available to him this past off-season. Childress, on the other hand, choose to sign with Olympiacos and play overseas in Greece, which definitely hasn’t panned out too well for him from a basketball standpoint.
Josh Childress also played like garbage in Euroleague play, though, as well as injured himself.
Some Americans have a skill set built for Euroleague play (e.g., Lynn Greer, Trajan Langdon, et al.), while others just lack the passing ability and jump shooting efficiency to get it done overseas.
True...
for as good as he’s been in the Greek league, he’s been equally bad in the Euro’s. Nothing has changed about his game though. Childress wouldn’t fit with our starters IMO. It’d be great to have a guy like him attacking the rack on the second unit though. It’s just cost prohibitive.
he is on the list
by salary
Blazer's fan since '84, Spurs fan when they are not playing Portland.
↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → B A
by HurraKane212 on Feb 21, 2009 5:28 PM PST up reply actions
Chris Bosh $14,410,581.00 In a lopsided trade for LMA, only on here for Dave Deckard
It was nice to watch Dave get excited for a change. Bosh does that to basketball fans. He’s an awesome player, top ten for sure.
No offense, but I would do the Bosh for Aldridge and Deckard deal in a heartbeat.
Dave would have a chance to develop with Toronto.
Sticking up for Travis Outlaw since 2008.
dave could be great in toronto, they would love him there,
and he would get free health care
Man, we should forfeit before roy’s hammy explodes, knocking him into LMA’s ear who loses his balance and hits Greg’s knee… - HurraKane212
http://www.nba.com/news/miles_10_080919.html
I don't want to start a DeJuan Blair post, so I'll put it here
It may not be a very good 2009 possibility, but none of these really are either.
He’s got 16 points and 16 rebounds in the first half. Halves are 20 minutes in college basketball. The part that’s scary… it’s not all that surprising. He’s barely above his average (1 rebound every 2 minutes).
I think Blair might be good for the backup PF
I think Patrick Patterson would be good too.
HIs game is beautiul
The next Steve Smith or Allan Houston. Very smooth and athletic. I can’t say enough about his shooting and the way we are better with him in the game. Here’s to next year.
I love his game
I’d love to see Oden with Outlaw, Webster, Rudy, and Roy surrounding him.
I’d like Rudy and Roy to increase their ball-handling capabilities and defense-abillity to be able to go with those two in the back court.
A hot five, with Aldridge, Bayless, Blake, and Batum chafing to get off the bench. Why trade? – Elgin
Since when do we need to ponder to froth? - jscot
Martell Webster does have good highlights...
It is nice to remind ourselves every now and again just what we are missing in this 22 year old, proto-typically built, small-forward Martell Webster. Remember, he only played in the first preseason game where he injured his foot. Then in December he played 5 minuted before reaggrivating that foot. Seeing these highlights definitely is good to see…
by Portland Dynasty on Feb 22, 2009 5:32 PM PST reply actions

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