When Batum Scores... The Team Wins
by zsalinger on Feb 19, 2009 10:43 PM PST
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PrintSome interesting facts on Batum...
When Batum scores 8 or more points, Blazers are 10-1... and the one loss is to the Lakers on 1/4 in Lakerland.
When Batum scores less than 8 points, the team is more or less a .500 team.
Batum averages about 21 mpg when scoring 8+ points. He only averages around 16 mpg in games when he scores less than 8 points (he's averaging around 17 mpg total this season).
Bottom line: When Batum plays well, team usually wins. I don't know if this stat holds up over the entire season or into next season, but it (may) add motivation to keep Batum in the long-term picture.
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flagged for using profanity in ur post. Please, we dont say their name around these parts. ( the La!@#$ I mean )
Awesome stuff. I always noticed that we were much better when Nic is scoring but the stats you pulled up prove how much Nic can be a factor. Once he has a year or two that kid is gonna be sick.
I always say Lakers.
They are arguably the best team in the NBA, and I will continue to respect them.
I heart taxes.
Interesting stat..
I think its definitely become a general concensus that we want to keep the guy around for a while. Just play D and hit the corner 3!
by GhostFacePryzbilla on Feb 19, 2009 10:52 PM PST reply actions
God please don't say that, he can do so much more!
I see Batum growing into a slasher who can really finish at the rim (he already runs the floor on the break, looks for lobs and even makes cuts to the basket—even though he never gets the ball. The makings of a good defender are already there, he just needs to work on the rebounding and shooting of course but I would hate to see him just camp out in the corner on offense a la Martell (don’t know how much of that is Nate’s design though).
Your scree name rocks by the way.
The Blazers as a whole are far more like my wife than like me in the sense of their physicality on defense.
-Dave
Based on the interviews with TO
about how he hates playing the 3 on offense because all the SF does is hang out on the perimeter and wait for the catch and shoot, I’d say it’s largely by coaching design. Rudy seems to similarly camp out there a little bit when we’ve got him, Roy, and Blake/Sergio/Bayless out there, so I’d imagine he’s just filling that position in the team’s sets. Batum, Rudy, and Webster have all thrown down some filthy dunks when they get the chance to move off the ball and free themselves up, so it might be a case of our coaching staff just needing to eventually loosen the reins up a little bit at some point in the future.
The corner three
and the dunk are the most effecient shots in basketball
The corner three has the highest make percentage, and TS% will show it generates more points than firing up shots in the lane that are more than 5 feet from the hoop. I’m all for the dunks also, but one of the measures of the quality of defense a team plays against you is how many corner 3s they allow you to get off. Sure the actual percent you hit will vary, and you’ll win as well as lose when you are hot or cold from that spot. However because it is such an effecient shot, the idea is that you either get that shot, or you force a defender to stay out there at all times. If you can drag him away, it’s better to get a clean look at a corner three than a contested lay up.
The real advantage of going inside is drawing the foul. For as good of a finisher as brandon is, it’s getting to the foul line for two shots, or an and 1, that really makes him an effecient scoring machine.
I can understand involving the player more, but for the sake of effecient offense, having an excellent shooter parked in a corner is an important part of any game plan. I’m not a huge fan of McMillian, there are some things I think he does wrong. However he knows far more about basketball than I can even fathom. In the case of offense, there is a reason a team with so many rookies is so effecient. It starts with offensive rebounding, and then three point shooting.
Oden forces fouls, so when he can avoid getting fouls called on him, he will be a massive game changing force. For the defense, the worst situation is to give up a foul on one of your big men. Not only does it help the other team get to the free throw line, but it can force the team to play their backup center for extended minutes, or slide their PF down to center. I do not know of any other team in the league with a back up center like Joel. Not having the #1 center available hurts. Having the three in the corner available makes it easier for the big man to work because he has a simple pass out if the double comes from that side.
The design on offense is very intentional. I like to see movement from the three also, but there should be strong presence from either the 2 or 3 on that corner of the floor.
Correct, sir
You’re absolutely correct about the most efficient scoring options being the corner three and shots within 5 feet (and their corollary free throw opportunities). And I like Nate’s system in that it keeps that corner spot filled with our shooters. The only thing I’d like to see is that there be more motion involved in getting the ball to a player in the corner. I think that probably requires a pretty advanced and complicated offensive system, though, and we just don’t have enough experienced players (both in time in the NBA and with each other) to run that style of offense well. For a good example, look at the Lakers’ offense. The triangle features a lot of motion, yet they always seem to get a good look for a good shooter in the corner when they need to.
I like the corner 3, and I like the players we have shooting it. I just wish it were a little less of a “camp out and wait” position. As good as we are about drawing a defender out and forcing them to cover that spot, I think it’d work the defense even more if they had to chase someone around for a while before having to close out in the corner.
As it is right now, though, I just cannot fault Nate for how he makes sure the team is utilizing that efficient option in the corner. Hopefully we see some growth and motion built into the offense soon, though.
< /war >
Why is a corner 3 better
than a 3 from somewhere else? Is it because the shot is a couple feet shorter than a 3 from, say, above the top of the key? Is the shot more likely to be uncontested than a 3 from elsewhere? (many corner 3s are taken when the defense rotates away)? Is the lack of the backboard behind the rim (from the shooters perspective) actually an advantage—I would think that the lack of ability to bank one in would hurt shooting percentage…
While I suck at basketball, I do find corner shots harder to hit (unguarded) than shots from elsewhere… but then I tend to aim for the red square, not the net. :)
There is no charge for awesomeness. Or attractiveness.
by EngineerScotty on Feb 20, 2009 4:45 PM PST up reply actions
who knows
the important thing is that corner 3s get converted at a significantly higher rate.
Boomshakalaka
Yeah, who knows?
It’s the first time in quite a while that I’ve found myself agreeing with jksnake99, but he’s correct, so far as I know. Not sure why corner 3s are better, but they sure are. I think it’s a combination of several factors. Yes they are are several feet closer, which makes a big difference at that point (23’ vs 20’). I think it’s also harder to close out in the corner than elsewhere around the arc, where defenders may already be closer to the shooter.
As far as your personal experience goes, I don’t think it relates well to professional basketball players. No offense intended, I just think they look at the basket differently. I know for myself, I always shoot free throws off the glass, because I can memorize the power needed and placement relative to the square on the glass to get it in the hoop. However, for a pro player, ignoring the backboard and only focusing on the hoop and looking for the hoop is a better proposition from many more positions on the court, and I understand that.
I don’t know the exact specifics why the corner 3 is a highly efficient shot, but it makes sense in the gut sense, and it’s clearly backed up by many many statistics.
< /war >
I'm pretty sure it is a combination of distance and defensive rotations
There are some players who have a limit on their effective range between 20-23 feet and their accuracy falls off dramatically beyond that point. Travis Outlaw last year is an example of such a player: he could hit the 21’ corner shots pretty reliably, but rarely attempted 3-point shots from other areas and shot very poor percentages when he did. This year he has increased his range slightly and now can hit shots from all around the arc.
The really good 3-point shooters have enough range to be effective from any point on the 3-point arc. For such players it is easiest to hit a straight on shot if they are left open, because the backboard has a good chance of knocking the ball in even if the range is off a little (witness how often the players in the 3-point shootout were hitting the straight on shot). However, in an actual game it is much easier to get an open shot from the corner because often all of the defenders will move to one side of the court and leave the other corner open. Even for shooters with a lot of range an open corner shot will be easier than a contested straight on shot.
+1
Right now the role of the SF in our offense is mostly to sit in the corner and shoot threes. However, part of that is probably due to the personnel that we have had. Martel Webster, Travis Outlaw, and James Jones are all basically jump shooters who don’t really have any other good offensive skills. Batum (and Rudy as well) already has better court vision and passing skills than Webster or Outlaw, and Batum/Rudy have also both shown good off-ball movement and the ability to score if you throw the ball in their direction when they cut towards the rim. It makes sense for us to add new plays for the SF that utilize the skills that our eurorookies have.
Batum definately appears to help the team when he plays
In the 20 games where Batum has had the most playing time, the Blazers are 16-4 (.800).
Right now Batum has an on/off +/- of +5.1 and an adjusted +/- of +4.71.
typically when the blazers small forwards play well, the team wins.
Udoka, James Jones etc.
by Tofu Anonymous on Feb 19, 2009 10:57 PM PST reply actions
I love Batum
but I would be interested to know if the games in which he scores more points and gets more minutes are blow out games. He seems to be out on the court when the game is over in the fourth quarter. I don’t know if this would skew this stat a bit…?
I still like Batum for the once and future starting three.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
Yeah, good point
This may be a case where correlation does not prove causation.
In any case, though, I love Batum, he is a good finisher on the break and can be a great defender.
I don't recall him scoring much in garbage time
If anything I would guess 70% of his points come in the first quarter.
Karma
by Sabonis4Ever on Feb 20, 2009 12:11 AM PST up reply actions
Batum is a better defender than Durant
Besides, it’s not like Durant was available when we drafted Batum.
Thanks, I can't help myself sometimes. You know, if my son had been born a girl hed be my daughter now.
Isn’t that amazing?
If your son had been born a girl
you’d be a mom.
There is no charge for awesomeness. Or attractiveness.
by EngineerScotty on Feb 20, 2009 4:47 PM PST up reply actions
When a 19/20 year old kid starts for an above average team...
… and doesn’t look out of place, that 19/20 year old kid is, more often than not, going places.
Boomshakalaka
A decent d player who doesnt give the game away
with horrible defensive play. Batum is going to be amazing. Today, the other piece of this eqaution is having trout on the floor less.
"Both Anthony Carter and Jameer Nelson were downright jubilant in the Magic locker room postgame. Carter said to no one in particular, "Brandon Roy, that man is unstoppable, it's like he's playing NBA Live" and Nelson was cracking on his teammates for not being able to guard Brandon. The kinds of jokes you can make when you win."
Batum
Is a remarkable player….we have only seen glimpses of what he’s capable of doing…he hopefully will be freed up to play more of his own game….standing around waiting for someone to give you a chance to shoot a three is a waste of his talent….he can get to the rim well and we could frankly use him moving towards the basket more to maximize his leaping ability to grab us some more boards…I love watching him blow by his guy on the baseline…
And the guy handles himself so well on the break…he’s quite gifted…and has the humility that is uncommon for someone so blessed…great guy all around
"..[Travis Outlaw] could jump, grab a rafter, eat a sandwich, and then dunk.."
tmundal 12/30/07
just wondering
I’m not denying the correlation between Batum’s points and wins, but is there any chance that Batum get’s more minutes and points in our blowouts than in close games.
Because we could also say that Ike was the key to victory because we won by 15 or more points in most games that he played in.
a result of blowouts?
That does raise a good point. Looking at the games he scored 8+, 3 of them were blowouts, including the 1st Chicago game and home to Miami. All in all, though, I’d have to think most of his minutes are coming from the beginning of the 1st and 3rd quarters, as well as most of his points.
I’d be interested in knowing if part of the answer lies in the fact that when he gets involved in the game (i.e., they run and he gets a dunk or something), whether there’s a correlation with him being more active on defense and as a result making the team better, as a younger player not involved in the game might have a tendency to lose focus, especially when they’re not part of the game and are just sitting in the corner.
My mind is a raging torrent, flooded with rivulets of thought cascading into a waterfall of creative alternatives
in in nba 2k9 batum is raw. hes second in all star voting and he comes off the bench in my team.
by elconquistador on Feb 20, 2009 10:14 AM PST reply actions
Batum = Bruce Bowen?
Check out their rookie stats (well, I actually used Bowen’s 2nd year numbers, as he only played 1 minute his entire rookie year w/Miami):
Bowen: 21:23 min, 5.6 pts, 2.9 rpg, 1.3 apg, 0.5 bpg, 40.9% FG, 33.9% 3PT
Batum: 17:30 min, 4.8 pts, 2.8 rpg, 0.9 apg, 0.5 bpg, 42.2% FG, 34.8% 3PT
Remarkably similar, huh? How many championships has Bowen helped bring to San Antonio? All I’m saying is at this early stage, he shows great promise of being a very instrumental part of a championship team, if not being a better and more explosive scorer.
Bruce Bowen was 26 years old during that season
Batum just turned 20 a couple months ago.
Here is a comparison of Batum with some other defense-oriented rookie SFs. Notice that all of the others were older than Batum as rookies.
Good thinking...
Batum had a brilliant offensive game, with 14 points and 3 for 3 shooting from behind the arc… but we still lost…
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