Salary Cap Discussion

by myemic23 on Feb 19, 2009 10:36 PM PST Comment 30 comments

I headed over to Storytellers salary cap site to try and get a better grasp on the situation the Blazers will be facing this summer. I was curious how the team options for Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw would come into play with the amount of cap space. Here are the numbers:

Players under contract in 2009-2010-

Brandon Roy - 3,900,000

Greg Oden- 5,361,000

Lamarcus Aldridge- 5.844,000

Martel Webster- 4,319,000

Joel Pryzbilla- 6,850,000

Jerryd Bayless- 2,143,000

Rudy Fernandez- 1,165,000

Sergio Rodriguez- 1,576,000

Nicolas Batum- 1,118,000

Darius Miles- 9,000,000

Total(rounded)- 41,000,000

Estimated 2009-2010 salary cap- 58 million???

Players with team options-

Travis Outlaw- 3,600,000

Steve Blake- 4,000,000

Expiring contracts-

Channing Frye- 4,264,000(qualifying offer)

Michael Ruffin-

Shavlik Randolph-

I am not a salary cap guru by anymeans, but I believe the blazers could be as much as 14-17 million under the cap this summer if they choose to not pick up the options on Blake and Outlaw. The 7-10 million in cap space is a rather underwhelming number to me when you compare it to the 13 million super expiring contract that is sitting untraded at the RG center court. 15 or so million makes me feel much better about keeping RLEC The one question I have is whether those team options need to be picked up before a free agent can be signed? Can the Blazers shop for free agents/trades and then pick up options if nothing pans out? Or are the Blazers forced to pick up those options or waive the player before they can start their free agent/lopsided trade shopping?

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I believe they'll be forced to pick up options before free agency starts

Why would a contract say differently. If I’m a player, and I may not be signed, I need to be able to sign with another team right away.

Both Trout and Blake will have their options exercied. They are steals at those prices.

--Dave
Addicted to Quack, SBN's Oregon Ducks blog

by Addicted to Quack on Feb 19, 2009 10:46 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Not only this...

…but letting RLEC expire despite having soem options, plus the comment about the economy means that we will almost certainly be making some trades on July 1st…

Observe.

When you are over the cap, the difference between outgoing and income salary cannot be more than 125%, for each team that is over the cap.

But suppose the Blazers are $7 million UNDER the cap.

Suddenly we can use players like Blake and Outlaw (very serviceable, very cheap, expiring and relatively young) plus our capspace UP TO $7 million.

Normally, Blake + Trout ($7.6 million) would only be able to bring us AT MOST $9.5 million in return because we are over the cap. However, if we are $7 million UNDER the cap, we can receive contracts back up to the cap, meaning we can send out Blake + Outlaw and get back $14.6 million in contracts.

If we waive Frye, that amount becomes even bigger.

Now suppose Pritchard is looking at a couple of teams who have their LAST chance this year, or players who are giving their team the last chance. Those teams are not going to be interested in RLEC or capspace at the trade deadline. But after the season is over, they will be looking to rebuild or gain flexibility and youth. (Good examples are Phoenix, San Antonio and Denver).

Now in THOSE cases, here in February (for example) sending Nash away for RLEC straight up would be heinous and criminal… but on the other side of the draft, sending Nash for Blake/Outlaw/a pick seems like a steal, (and that contract situation only works this offseason).

This is how $7 million in capspace is incredible next year. A team could go from not wanting to send a player away, to instantly receiving $7 million in cap relief, plus two serviceable contracts. What teams wouldn’t be interested in that, particularly if they are on the downward slope?

Frye + Blake + Outlaw + capspace this summer can equal almost any contract in the NBA, even some of the “max” ones, and incidentally, can equal every single big 2010 FAs CURRENT contracts, which is HUGE. Lets say that Bosh/Amare/Lebron/Wade tell their team they wont be resigning next year,a dnt he team wants to get some value. Giving up Aldridge for Bosh/Amare is questionable in my mind, but particularly with Amare, instant cap relief and pieces to build for their future really could be worth it, and we’d be absolutely CRAZY to not turn Blake + Outlaw into Amare, even if we turned around and dealt him again.

So… this has been an explanation of how capspace can be MORE valuable than a larger amount of expiring contract… green this if you found it helpful…

by JordanLeDoux on Feb 20, 2009 12:56 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs

huge

great stuff. +1

Why?

by Idog1976 on Feb 20, 2009 12:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

this is all I got

in franchise mode on NBA 2K9 you DO have to decide on options before you can sign free agents.

UDOKA!

by CLRNCE. on Feb 19, 2009 10:47 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

PS

I am undefeated this season

UDOKA!

by CLRNCE. on Feb 19, 2009 10:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

got Xbox Live???

I own people with the Blazers all day long…

RUDY > MJ

by myemic23 on Feb 19, 2009 10:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

...PS2

still an awesome game

UDOKA!

by CLRNCE. on Feb 19, 2009 11:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Blake and Outlaw will be picked up, for their value

But the year they get picked up is the last one, if I am correct, which would make them basically expiring contracts next year… so they will probably be very tradable next summer, and would be valuable simply as expiring contracts as well as bargains on decent players at next year’s deadline… so, I think they get their options picked up.

But… it would be tempting to not pick up one of those guys, say Blake, and up our cap space to closer to 11 million, which would be a big difference over 7 million.

by TimG on Feb 19, 2009 11:18 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I have an unrelated question, about the trade exception we got:

Credit to Douglast, who laid this out in another thread: as I understand it, we can either have our cap space of 7 million (assuming we pick up Blake and Outlaw), OR we have the midlevel exception at about 5.5 mil, and our TPE at 3 mil—

So, with the 3 mil traded player exception (TPE), we could, say, trade a pick or cash for a 3 mil salary, and then have the 5.5 midlevel exception left. But we could simply renounce the exceptions, and have the capspace, and do exactly the same thing, but woudl also have the flexibility to trade a player away, etc. So, anything we could possibly do with the TPE, we could do easier with just the cap space. We have to renounce the TPE (and midlevel exception) to have the capspace… so it seems liek it would make no sense to keep the 3 mil trade exception… thus it has absolutely no value to us. It would if we were over the cap already, but since we can be under the cap, we might as well renounce it.

If that is right… then what is the point of getting that trade exception? Was the trade really ONLY for the money we saved in the trade?

Basically, the only value that trade exception could have had at the time it was acquired, it seems to me, is if we HAD made a trade with RLEC, and wound up over the cap this summer, then it would have been useful.. but since we didn’t, and so we are now going to be under the cap, it is totally valueless.

I’m just wondering if there is any value to that 3 mil exception anymore… because I don’t think there is, if we end up with cap space.

by TimG on Feb 19, 2009 11:25 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

It is good for one calendar year

If they make other trades/signings this summer they could keep it and use it before the trade deadline next year. Or it is just getting rid of Diogu now instead of renouncing him this summer.

PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04

by tssbro on Feb 19, 2009 11:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That's what I would have thought

But I don’t think that’s right—apparently we either have the exceptions, or we renounce them and get the cap space, but can’t have both—so if we do make the decision to do signings or trades with cap space, we give up our exceptions. At least that’s what I got from earlier… Even though it is good for one calendar year, it sounds like we have to give up our exceptions to have cap space.

by TimG on Feb 20, 2009 12:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know for sure...

but would it make sense that if we went under the cap then back over the cap after making some deals that did not include the exception that we would still retain the exception since we are back over the cap within the time frame?

I don’t know the CBA that well. All I heard was that is was an exception that was good for one year.

PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04

by tssbro on Feb 20, 2009 12:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

i think that is the case

with the midlevel exception and other normal salary cap exceptions, but trade exceptions may be different

not positive tho

by DominicanAvenger on Feb 20, 2009 4:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

We give up our MLE and Bi-Annual Exceptions if we are under the cap, but trade exceptions always are granted, no matter what. (Although the player you trade for still counts against your cap….)

by JordanLeDoux on Feb 20, 2009 4:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, no

If you are under the cap, then any exceptions you have earned up until that point are lost.

Once you go back over the cap, you can start earning new exceptions, but the lost ones are gone forever.

Think of it this way – an exception is just that – an exception to the rule that you cannot make moves if you are over the cap. So if you are under the cap, you have no need for exceptions since you aren’t ‘breaking’ the rule.

by Storyteller on Feb 20, 2009 9:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

As for the trade exception

Yes, if the Blazers are under the cap come July, they lose the trade exception. But they do have the option of using it on or near draft day. Just like they did 2 years ago with a similar-sized trade exception that allowed them to get James Jones and the rights to Rudy for nothing.

It gives them another option, should they decide to go that route.

by Storyteller on Feb 20, 2009 9:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I've been thinking about this

think back to 2007:

We did the Zach trade, which got us a trade exception

We then sent that exception to Phoenix for James Jones, and in a seperate trade, bought the rights to Rudy Fernandez.

If you recall, the first deal was confirmed by the league on draft day, but the last two deals could not be announced until the new fiscal year started in mid-July. Why is that exactly? Certainly, paying cash for draft rights is allowed to go through on draft day, so that couldn’t have been the holdup.Which means that us sending a trade exception for Jones was the part that couldn’t go through until the new year.

This has me wondering. It may be that exceptions can’t be used until the new year starts and the new cap is calculated. If this is true, then the option of actually using the exception on draft day, then still getting under the cap in July is off the table. If we use the exception on draft day but it can’t officially be approved until July, then we no longer have the option of renouncing our exceptions and going under the cap in July, since to do so would wipe out the trade exception, and undo any deal that we made with it.

If this is all true, then even though the exception gives us more flexibility on draft day, it may be the best play is to hold it until July, then decide whether or not we need it and the MLE, or whether we would rather have a similar amount of capspace.

Rule #1 of nitpicking is to get it right.

by douglast on Feb 20, 2009 9:36 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If I remember correctly (and I could be wrong)

the Zach trade was announced on draft day but could not be executed until July because the salaries wouldn’t match until player’s new salary figures kicked in.

Meaning that the exception wasn’t generated until after the Moratorium.

Again, that’s just how I remember it. I can go back and check tonight.

by Storyteller on Feb 20, 2009 9:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

ok thanks

my memory was that the zach trade was announced right away. If you are right, then my theory wouldn’t apply, which is a good thing. best case scenario I think is to use the TE on draft day, then waive our other exceptions in july and have true capspace in the 5 to 8 million range.

Rule #1 of nitpicking is to get it right.

by douglast on Feb 20, 2009 10:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ahhh ok

So it is useful on draft day and before July 1st (or whatever the date is, I think it’s July 1st)

This is exactly what I was wondering, if it was still of any use, and I hadn’t thought of that.

I have another question: The trade deadline was yesterday, and lasts until… when? The new season officially starts July 1st, right, and so it lasts until then, with the exception of draft day? Or does it just simply last until draft day, and then trades can be made anytime after draft day?

by TimG on Feb 20, 2009 2:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

trading cannot really start again until after the July moratorium, which usually ends around July 10th.

The only exception to this is draft day.

Rule #1 of nitpicking is to get it right.

by douglast on Feb 20, 2009 2:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ok, that's what I thought.

Thanks for your help man.

by TimG on Feb 20, 2009 3:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Once a team has played their last game

of the season (whether regular season or the playoffs), they can make trades. Of course, they can only make a trade with a team who has similarly already played their final game of the season.

Now that’s the official rule. Functionally, teams don’t make trades until draft day. I’m trying to remember if any trade has actually happened while the playoffs were still going on – I don’t recall any. I’m betting that the league office frowns upon it and encourages teams to just wait until the week of the draft.

by Storyteller on Feb 20, 2009 3:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

So is that just liek a twilight zone time of the year?

If we could still trade, couldnt we trade RLEC liek Canzano said, at the end of the year? (I know we cant… but if this is the case, why not?)

Or does the last day of the season for a team literally mean the last day, and th enext day is th ebeginning of the next season, and our cap situation switches to the next season the day after our last game?

Thanks for all your help, btw, I am hoping others have these same questions also…

by TimG on Feb 20, 2009 9:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Good question

Teams can make trades after their season is over, yes. But they cannot trade players who are expiring (like Raef) or players who have team options/player options for the next season that have not been picked up.

The new season for salary purposes starts for everyone on July 1st.

And, yes, you are not the only one asking these questions. Canzano would be better educated, in fact, if he asked these questions instead of assuming he knew the answers.

by Storyteller on Feb 20, 2009 10:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

here is my thing

if you look at the players that we had possible interest in, Carter, Jeff, and Wallace of those players, only Wallace has a dacent salary at about 10m.

Generally speaking there are3 types of high paid players in the NBA:

1. Super stars that have max salaries 15m+, Kobe, Garnett, Duncan,
2. Super role players that make about 9-11m/yr ala Wallace, Prince, Miller
3. and the rest of them who are players who some GM thought that they had the potential to be superstars but didnot come through and they are usually at 13m or so such as Raef, Jefferson, Odom, Zach and Wally. They are good, but not able to carry a team by themselfes yet suckered some one into giving them a huge contract.

What this means for us is that barring the universe unfolding we are not going to get a superstar and we do not want to get an overpaid role player, which would be the role they would be playing here. What we want is a super role player on a good contract at about 6-9m/yr meaning that the 6m in cap space we have and adding in or renouncing some players will put us right at about 10m, the PERFECT amount for a super role player, which is all we need. Prince makes 9.5m, Battier makes 6.5m, Butler makes 9.5 and Wallace makes 9.5. We do not need to spend that much more to get a Carter or Jefferson at 15m a piece when a super role player would be much better.

"Damn the Blazers. Damn them to hell. They are working the rest of the league like a speed bag." - Bill Simmons 6/26/08

by SpyderRyder on Feb 19, 2009 11:54 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

myemic 23 -

Your basic premise is correct – the Blazers could have a maximum of about $14 or $15 million in cap space (that’s assuming the cap stays the same and doesn’t drop).

BTW, the one thing not yet in my spreadsheet for next year is the cap hold for Portland’s 1st round pick this summer – that will probably be a bit over $1 million. It’s not in there simply because we don’t know how much it will be for each team, since the amount is set by draft order and we don’t know that yet. Sooooo…..

If you take a look at recent fanposts by douglast and Norsktroll, you can also see their excellent analysis of what the Blazers might or might not do.

And one brief (slightly picky but you’ll understand in a second) correction. Blake and Outlaw do not have team options for 2009-10. Rather, their contracts for 2009-10 are not guaranteed if they are waived before June 30th. Sounds like a team option, but with one crucial difference. If either had a team option, they could not be traded on or around draft day until the option was picked up. However, with their current status, they can be traded as essentially an ‘expiring contract’ to a team looking to cut salary on draft day – the team getting them sends back salary to Portland and then waives Blake and/or Outlaw before their 2009-10 salary becomes guaranteed. Again, it gives the Blazers flexibility before the new salary cap year starts in July.

One last thing – yes, Portland needs to make a decision with Frye, Blake and Outlaw by June 30th, so that’s before FA signings are possible. However, there’s nothing preventing the Blazers from (for example) waiving their rights to Frye, pursuing deals with the cap space and if nothing else better offers itself, signing Frye to a new deal (assuming of course he hasn’t already signed with another team). Same with Blake and Outlaw. It’s risky but yes possible.

by Storyteller on Feb 20, 2009 9:21 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

One tiny thing: Should the Blazers renounce all 3, they fall under the minimum number of required players

In that case, the rules would immediately add “phantom players” to our roster for salary cap purposes who earn at least the minimum salary I think, so we wouldn’t even get all the savings from dropping Travis and Steve from the roster. But I don’t think that will happen anyway, since those contracts are so good for their level of talent.

Brandon is one of those quiet assassins. - Chris Paul

by Norsktroll on Feb 20, 2009 9:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs