Committed 2009-10 Salaries:
$41.3 million (9 players plus Miles)

Team Options (not exactly, but same thing cap-wise):
4.0 Million for Steve Blake
3.6 Million for Travis Outlaw

Cap Holds:
$9.5 million Channing Frye (if we give him the qualifying offer)

~$1.1 million 2009 1st round pick (estimated, if we don't trade it)
$824k Petteri Koponen
$824k Joel Freeland
$467k per roster spot under 12, if we don't have 12 (holds count towards the 12)
(something for Shavlick and Ruffins, but I'm assuming they are moot and will be renounced if/when needed)

Lowest Cap Number we can get: $42.7 million (release all holds and Travis/Steve and trade our pick)
Likely scenario: $51.646 (keep Travis/Steve, pick, and rights to Petteri/Joel)

What are our options?
Assuming the likely scenario above, we will enter summer as officially over the cap, since you have to include our $3.1 million trade exception, the Mid level exception (around 5.5 million), and the biannual exception (around 1.75 million) to our $51.646 cap total, which will definately be enough to push us over the new cap, whatever it ends up being.

At that point, we can use any or all 3 of these exceptions. the MLE and Bi-annual exception can be used to sign free agents, whereas the trade exception can only be used to acquire players via trade. None of these exceptions can be combined to bring back someone at a bigger salary.

The other option we have is to renounce the exceptions, which would then take us under the salary cap. How much under depends on what the cap is, and which of the several options and holds we decided to keep. Note that the Freeland and Koponen holds can be freed up at any point over the summer by renoucing their rights. This is not the case with any of our current 3 players listed above. We have to decide by the end of June whether or not to waive Steve and/or Travis, so once we decide to keep them past that date, we can't undecide later.  Channing is a similar situation, in that we have to decide prior to June 30 whether or not to extend him a qualifying offer. Once we do that, he starts taking up the 9.5 million in cap space until he signs the qualifying offer, signs a new contract (with us or someone else), or we try to rescind an unsigned qualifying offer (has a deadline for doing so)

So, if we got back to the likely scenario above, we enter summer with the 3 exceptions, at which point we can decide instead to renounce those and instead clear somewhere between 5 and 8 million dollars in cap space. it is important to note that even 5 million in cap space is potentially more valuable than a 5.5 million dollar mid level exception, because you can use the space to make unbalanced trades, which you cannot do with the MLE. For example, we could decide to trade away LaMarcus, Travis, and Sergio (10.9 million) in exchange for Chris Bosh (15.8 million).  Or, you could trade away Martell Webster and Sergio Rodriguez in exchange for Gerald Wallace.  Many other unbalanced trades are possible as well. And of course, you could instead use the 5 to 8 million to sign a free agent instead. The good news is that you don't have to actually decide and renounce the exceptions until you need to. You start with them in play, and if you work out an unbalanced trade you like, you renounce them and make the trade.  If you don't, then you maybe use the exceptions instead. Same thing applies to the Joel and Petteri holds - if you need that extra bit of space at the last minute, you can get it by renouncing them. But you don't have to decide until you have a deal done.

I think that about covers it for now, but I'm sure someone will correct me if I missed anything.

Thanks alway to Storyteller for the salary information (and reminding me about the cap hold for our upcoming draft pick)