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Last minute thoughts about what the Blazer's need

Most of the endless banter about trades revolves around which targeted player is better and what price would need to be paid to acquire the targeted player.  For instance, we repeatedly debate the relative merits of Jefferson, Butler, Wallace and Carter.  

All these conversations make sense on one level, but it seems to me that we should spend more time discussing what the Blazer's need at the SF position before we discuss the relative merits of the various players, or the wisdom of standing pat.  Here are a few thoughts:

1)  Improved perimeter defense:  given Blake's limitations as a defender, and Roy's propensity to coast a bit on defense, we need someone willing and able to defend.

2)  Spot up shooting:  because of the strength and size of Oden and LMA, and because of Roy's ability to get to the rim, most teams clog the middle against Portland.  Our SF needs to be someone who can shoot over the top.  This was evident with Jones last year, and evident again during Blake's absence.  For those like me who love Bayless' potential, this need for a SF who can hit from deep is doubly important because Baylless' strength is going to the rim.

3)  Ability to create his own shot.  If we are going to trade Outlaw, we need someone who can replace some of Outlaw's ability to get his own shot.  Trout's defense makes many of us crazy, but there is no denying that Portland tends to rely on his offensive skill down the stretch to give the team an alternative to Roy.

Other B Edgers may have see our needs differently.  Chime in, give us your thoughts.

Next, how do these needs effect our evaluation of various potential moves?

Wallace:  is probably the best defender of the guys being discussed.  He is almost certainly the best rebounder, but rebounding is already a strength.  On offense, Wallace is a slasher, and probably the least proficient outside shooter with a 3 pt  percentage of  only .250.  I see potential spacing problems with a starting five of Oden, LMA, Wallace, Roy, and Blake.  The team will be very dependent on Blake to provide outside shooting, this may make it harder to develop Bayless.

Butler: is probably the best overall player of the group, but he doesn't appear to be available and he is not a particularly good 3pt shooter with a career percentage of only .318.

Jefferson:  is by reputation a decent, but not great, defender.  He was a top defender during his NJ days but has seemed to fall of a bit during the past couple of years.  Whether he can regain that edge is key to deciding his value.  On offense, his overall shooting percentage is down, but he is having his best year from 3 pt range at .418 and is taking more attempts this year at 3.2 per game.  If he can continue to develop his outside shooting he could be a very good fit.

Carter:  Carter is clearly the most offensively skilled player of this group.  He has a career PER a little over 20.  He is shooting .390 from distance.  The question with him is three-fold:  1)  will he play good defense? I think so, True Hoop has a great story about Carter http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-38-202/What-s-Vince-Carter-Worth-.html.  The stat geeks seem to think Vince's defense is under-rated.  2) Is he too old?  I think this is the obvious risk, but think that the answer to this depends on how one evaluates Batum and Webster.  If you think Webster and/or Batum is going to develop into a high quality starter with-in the next couple of years, Carter may be just the ticket.  He will be ready to accept a reduced role as the young guys develop.  In particular, Carter could be a great teacher for the young guys especially Webster because they have fairly similar physiques and good shooting strokes.

I suppose this post is sort of silly, because KP is going to do whatever he is going to do before this post even gets dry, but hopefully any discussion this generates will help us gain insight into whatever unfolds today.  In KP, we trust.

 

 

 

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Whoops!

I meant to pose a third question about Carter:

Will he be a good fit, chemistry wise? Again, the True Hoop story seems to suggest that he would. He is considered a nice guy who has gotten a bit a of a bad rap because he was never able to live up to the “next Jordan” hype. He is considered more comfortable as the #2 option than as the #1.

My other comment about VC is I would be happy to get him for RLEC, Sergio, and Trout. Throw in a couple of picks or cash if we need to, but I am not at all happy with the idea of including Bayless.

by upper left corner on Feb 19, 2009 7:32 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I heard that he is a great guy and his teamates love him

I think he would fit. He also didn’t complain when get benched last month

bayless leaves over my dead body

by thomasikehara on Feb 19, 2009 7:35 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

that's not a thought...thats a brainstorming session...

I’ll read it , but I gotta get to work first ;)

The Faith don't panic, the faith freaks out burns out farms and torchs small villages in the name of The Faith.

by faith on Feb 19, 2009 7:35 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

latest from chad ford

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=TradeTalkRoundup-090218

basically the blazers still want wallace as their number one choice, but don’t want to include batum or take back nazr’s contract. The basic framework for a Carter trade is in place — Carter and Ager for Frye and RLEC (straight salalry dump??? Make it happen KP!) but the deal is being held up by KP’s insistence that NJ include GS’s 2011 first-round pick acquired in the Marcus Williams trade.

RealGM is reporting that Pritchard and Thorn are playing chicken, and KP is confident that Thorn’s desire to move Carter’s onerous contract will outweigh both his desire not to include that first-rounder; and that the packages that the Mavs, Rockets, and Spurs can offer just aren’t good enough to get a deal done.

by BlazersOrBust on Feb 19, 2009 7:46 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

In addition

95.5 the game just interviewed Milwaukee’s beat writer. He says that it’s “60-40” the blazers and bucks get something done, but that “people in the know and milwaukee fans” would expect travis, rudy, and RLEC in a trade for jefferson and ridnour.

……

I stopped howling my laughter long enough to inform you all of this.

by BlazersOrBust on Feb 19, 2009 8:01 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think the "chicken" story is right

and probably what happens is we give them a high second rounder, or even our first round pick this year, to compensate them for that 2011 pick. We don’t really need all our picks this year, but in a couple years we’ll probably be looking to bring another youngster or two along — and that G.S. pick is likely to be a good one.

I’m starting to wonder if this deal happens….

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Feb 19, 2009 8:07 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

My thoughts exactly

If I were KP right now, I’d be demanding Carter/Ager and the first rounder for Frye and RLEC, nothing more. If Thorn balks, I say, “Fine, enjoy paying superstar money to a second banana on a team going nowhere in front of 14,000 fans every night”. When Thorn calls back 10 minutes later, properly chastened, I offer our and the Knicks’ second-round picks this year to sweeten the pot.

I’d be unwilling to include our first-rounder this year, because KP has made two dynamite picks with first-rounders between #20 and #30 (Batum and Rudy), but if the Man himself feels that it’s imperative that we get this deal done then I hope we trade it.

by BlazersOrBust on Feb 19, 2009 8:25 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The reasons I could see our first rounder go

1. KP can probably buy another if he wants it.
2. He can probably package second rounders to move up a little.
3. He can probably use the trade exception to pick up a first rounder in exchange for taking a salary dump from somebody.
4. We don’t actually have a lot of room on our roster for a first round pick this year, especially if Freeland comes over. All we really need is a backup PF, and if Freeland isn’t the answer, you can usually get those in the second round.

Let me put it this way — if you could do RLEC, Channing, and our first rounder for Carter/Ager/G.S. 2011 first rounder, would you really say no? Really? Would anyone say no?

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Feb 19, 2009 8:33 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Hard to know who is KP's real target

KP always seems to have multiple deals working in order to maximize his leverage.

Personally, I think if we could get VC for that cheap price, that would be my preference. I like Wallace and his age, but I think his lousy 3pt percentage is a real concern, and it sounds like Wallace is a lot more expensive if they are asking for Batum. That is a price I would be unwilling to pay. I guess part of the reason I lean toward VC is because I have a lot of faith that both Batum and Webster are going to be very good within a fairly short time horizon.

by upper left corner on Feb 19, 2009 8:19 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Me, too

The only reasons I see to make a trade:
1. To get a guy who is a huge upgrade over what our young players are likely to be. I’m talking Bosh/Chris Paul type deals. I don’t see any of those happening.
2. To pry our window open early. That says get a guy who is going to be around for a couple years but then disappears about the time our young guys start to hit their prime. If he’s also going to have a really valuable expiring contract about that same time, all to the good.

I’ll be very happy if it is Carter. He’s not the best long term fit, perhaps, because he is a good but not great defender, but we aren’t looking for a long term fit, necessarily. We have Nic and Martell.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Feb 19, 2009 8:39 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Wow!

If we can get VC for Frye or for Trout, do it. Don’t trade Batum. I care less about the pick than about keeping Bayless and Batum.

by upper left corner on Feb 19, 2009 7:56 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

If your other starters are Oden, LMA, Roy, and Bayless, I don’t think you necessarily need a SF who excels at creating his own shot (need #3 above). That’s what is so enticing about a guy like Tayshaun or Battier… not necessarily a “create-your-own-shot” scorer, but a great defender and shooter.

MLB2PDX!!! (someday...)

by The Cactus Leaguer on Feb 19, 2009 8:50 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

If we learned nothing else from this last draft, it's that KP is the king of misdirection...

The fact that the media is hyperventilating about Carter probably indicates that the action, if it happens, will be somewhere else.

I think, with the potent Salmons/Miller combo deal off the table, the best fit among the big boppers is Richard Jefferson. I doubt that Milwaukee is gonna do a straight money dump though — I mean, they did just recently have Mega Millions for that Thoroughly Meh Aussie Center of theirs…

So are you willing to lose, for example, the RLEC bix and Travis and Sergio? Travis is the #3 scorer on this team, I remind you… Travis plays every game in crunch time, I remind you…

Dunno, I have a suspicion that Paul Allen is gonna pocket the RLEC money.

And I also have a suspicion that the Blazers will be #9 and out of the money again…

The cilantro in your tapioca pudding since 2007.™

by timbo on Feb 19, 2009 9:03 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

misdirection talk is overrated

we do not know where the leaks are coming from. That we have not heard of trades before they have happened is representative of most trades in the NBA. The Blazers seem to keep quiet about their maneuverings, which I don’t think represents misdirection as much as privacy. I think the team is seeing how good of a deal they can get, and then they will pull the trigger on a Carter deal. Maybe with the option of switching picks, or the Blazers throwing in a second rounder for the Golden State Warrior’s 2011 pick.

by TFan on Feb 19, 2009 10:50 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

key ingredient seems to be missing in all the trade talk:

the idea of shortening our rotation. In my mind, one of the most appealing components is upgrading. Sure, we’ll likely have to send out the same number of players as we get back, but if we can dump 2 or even 3 sergio/trout/frye types and get back one VC/RJ/Wallace type, then that has strong appeal to me.

by 2forLaRue on Feb 19, 2009 9:30 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

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