The No-Stats All-Star

by PoliSam on Feb 14, 2009 9:42 AM PST Comment 35 comments

There is a great article in the New York Times Magazine this week by the author of Money Ball, Michael Lewsi. It is about Shane Battier, Houston's GM Daryl Morey, and the "new" stats in basketball: The No-Stats All-Star. It's a must read.

A few highlights, comments:

-Some great discussion of exactly how and why Shane Battier is a good defender.

-One of the interesting claims made by Lewis and Morey is that in basketball, unlike Football or Baseball, the traditional statistics give players an incentive to be selfish. I always knew that to be true in basketball, but never realized that it was less of an issue in other sports.

-Some hints about the types of statistical analysis that teams keep "in-house." Stuff that is not publically available that is useful to teams when scouting.

-There was a suggestion that Houston believes that it's very important not to foul. That fouling is the worst type of defensive play. Greg Oden, I'm looking at you.

-Frankly, I would have liked to see a bit more discussion of the details of the "new" statistics and a bit broader coverage (discuss other teams that are interested in this trend).

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Stats give players a reason to be selfish in every sport

That’s why Keyshawn Johnson didn’t title his book “Let me throw the darn downfield block”.

Travis Outlaw is an alien, but in a good way.

Awesome Graphic was provided by CIC, because he felt like he should be hazed.

by Clevelander among roses on Feb 14, 2009 10:32 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

not exactly

a reciever is selfish and pads his stats if he catched every pass scores a bunch of TDs, that helps the team out a lot

bayless leaves over my dead body

by thomasikehara on Feb 14, 2009 11:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Same thing in baseball

a good batting or fielding percentage will most likely help you’re team not hurt it.

by SamGoody on Feb 15, 2009 9:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

in baseball, there are numerous situations in which helping the team actually means taking a hit to your personal stats. Jeter has so few errors because he doesn’t chase balls he might not get to or make crazy throws to get runners like a really great defensive shortstop would. Tony Gwynn manicured his batting average at the expense of the Padres offense for years – he wouldn’t bunt, hit and run or try to go the opposite way. He would take a walk and set up a double play to end an inning instead of putting the ball in play and moving runners because it padded his stats.

by LicketyBrindle on Feb 16, 2009 11:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Great great article.

Thanks for linking it.

by howlingfantods on Feb 14, 2009 11:04 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Can we all agree that Battier would be an awesome player for Portland?

Sounds like Morey won’t trade him, though.

by Cablinasian on Feb 14, 2009 11:08 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Yes.

I think without a doubt Battier takes this team to a higher level.

straight from section 326

by FryeGuy on Feb 16, 2009 12:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

great read, very interesting

best quote: whoever developed the boxscore should be shot!

Woof

by Charles Barkley McLovin on Feb 14, 2009 11:31 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Perfect way to start my Saturday AM

I enjoy Lewis- Moneyball was great and we need some good narrative writers to give color to basketball stats.

This is the first time someone has described how statistics can make sense of defense in basketball. It also dealt with the nuance of how an individual might accure a good +/- and why that metric might matter.

The Blazers don’t need Battier- they need the next guy who is going to be good in the same way as Battier- an all-star caliber contribution without needing to touch the ball, score points and earn max dollars. This guy is probably already on another team and I’m guessing that the Blazers will be able to figure out who he is and how to get him.

We got a limited peak into the logic behind the stats that the Rockets are using. I think they use video to identify plays that aren’t counted by tradional stats, like forcing a player to a certain place on the court for example. If you count these ‘stats’ a guy like Battier will grade out very well. I’m guessing that the Blazers are doing this also.

The foul thing is interesting and certainly relevant to us- this is why Nate sticks to very strict rules about how many fouls Oden, for example will play with. The Blazers are definitely trying to teach their younger players not to foul.

by jose luis on Feb 14, 2009 11:35 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

We already have that next guy

and his name is Nic.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Feb 14, 2009 11:53 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs

since he's got some time off...

hopefully the front office has translated the article into French and said, “Nic, there will be a quiz on monday.”

by WagonBanded on Feb 14, 2009 12:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Nic is going to be special

But I think he’ll light up a traditional box score. By the time he’s 25 his contributions will be less subtle.

by jose luis on Feb 14, 2009 1:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Battier would be a spectacular addition to us

A veteran, professional, defensive minded, pure team player. Our defense would improve tremendously. What do you think he could teach Batum? Remember, he’s ten years older than Batum, So right when Battier’s production starts to drop, Batum is hitting his prime. What do you think he could teach Oden about being in the right place to defend? He would be GREAT for us! I would give Outlaw, RLEC… and even Bayless (I love Bayless, although they already hve Aaron Brooks) or Webster (that hurts to type) to get Battier because his influence on our defense (our glaring weakness) would be huge.

by Henryschild on Feb 15, 2009 12:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

His production already dropped this year

He had an injury, but he is already not the player he used to be. I like him as a person, but I wouldn’t give up much to get him on this team. But more than for e.g. Grant Hill whose name is also thrown around.

Brandon is one of those quiet assassins. - Chris Paul

by Norsktroll on Feb 15, 2009 12:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

this article throws out 'production'

it’s about intangibles.

by northwestj on Feb 16, 2009 7:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

wait

isnt this article about things that are not made tangible, but should be and are being made tangible by the Rockets?

I am going to type it again as it is so awkward…tangible.

Life is exhausting when you are this stupid.

by jonestr on Feb 16, 2009 10:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Thnkas for the link. This should be required reading for all fans

Fascinating for stats geeks and people who are allergic to stats.

My biggest complaint is that it wasn’t long enough. It needs to be a book — add a few more teams, a few more players (Brandon?), and some more details about in-house stats, etc.

by Corvid on Feb 14, 2009 12:00 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

“Thnkas”? Typo of the week!

by Corvid on Feb 14, 2009 12:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

"I was the kid about whom they always said, ‘Check his birth certificate.’ "

How many players intentionally don’t end sentences with prepositions? Dude’s off the wall.

"Well, Travis just showed us that we can go to Travis Outlaw." - Nate McMillan

by 12sharks on Feb 14, 2009 12:26 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

About what are you talking?

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Feb 14, 2009 12:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Fantastic read

I would love to see what statistical metrics KP is using to evaluate draft picks. Is it really the “golden gut,” or is it the “golden ruler” a bunch of cool stats that allow KP to make the right decisions?

by upper left corner on Feb 14, 2009 12:36 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Teams are most likely developing their own player evaluation metrics

That is, teams that are into that kind of advanced statistical analysis. Cuban posted his on his blog this week, but who knows how much they actually use it.

Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs

by Ozzie Montana on Feb 14, 2009 2:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It's pretty well known

that Jeffrey Ma (the MIT blackjack guy from “Bringing down the house”) does a fair amount of statistical analysis for the Blazers. As far as how much that factors in, I’m sure there’s some amount of “gut” to his decisions in terms of sifting through the stats. I can’t imagine that it’s usually anywhere near as definitive for most draft picks as it is for a guy like Battier, who’s pretty much the poster child of advanced statistics.

Incidentally, as I recall, Ma was in love with Kevin Love before the draft.

by Royster on Feb 16, 2009 12:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

Great article, thanks for the link.

by crhsrunner on Feb 14, 2009 12:37 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

This was a pleasure to read

Thanks a lot for the link, PoliSam

"Well, Travis just showed us that we can go to Travis Outlaw." - Nate McMillan

by 12sharks on Feb 14, 2009 4:12 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Battier is one of my favorite players in the league

He brings those intangibles to the team like Doug Christie and James Posey. Evey championship caliber team needs a guy like him.

by Jiggamant on Feb 15, 2009 12:45 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Except for Posey specializes in hard fouls, and Christie specialized in beating down cock of the walk Fox

I mention Posey because the article specificely says fouling is bad and Posey is a big proponent of the “my defense is fouling” mantra. I metion Christie because I’m always happy whenever anyone brings him up. The NBA… Where Doug Christie finally beats Fox down! One of my favorite all time NBA memories.

".. is gumby an alien?"

by staylost on Feb 15, 2009 2:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're distorting Posey's defense a little bit

While I agree that he isn’t afraid to give a hard foul, they mainly seem to come when the alternative is a layup or guaranteed points. In this case, except with the very best FT shooters, it’s almost a given that you give up fewer “expected points” by fouling than if you had just let the layup go. Assuming a guy has a 95% chance of making the layup, letting it go yields an 1.90 expected points. For an 80% FT shooter, going to the line yields 1.60 expected points, so statistically, you’re better off fouling in a situation where the shot has a higher % of going in than the FT% of the shooter, as long as you can be sure that you’re preventing the shot from going in, hence the hard fouls.

I think there are some other issues going on that they factor in with the advanced statistical work, like getting into the bonus, etc., which would tip it more towards not fouling, but in general, there are times when it’s preferable to foul and times when it’s not.

by Royster on Feb 16, 2009 12:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Great article

Lewis again gives sports fans a much deeper insight into the game. No one like him, now that Roger Angel is inactive and—where is Thomas Boswell?

by Hulk on Feb 15, 2009 9:48 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Boswell writes for the Washington Post

He’s on their site constantly.

by chnews on Feb 15, 2009 11:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe Oden is that guy for us

I mean, he really does effect the game in ways that don’t add up in the box score. I’m feeling better already (not being sarcastic btw)>>>!!!

myspace.com/marktwainindians

by mark twain on Feb 15, 2009 2:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

GREAT ARTICLE

although it does seem kind of like a moneyball rip off.

I wish I could be in the room when they go over each players specific shooting details. I love how Battier turns Kobe into a detriment to his team. If you watch the L*kers much you definitely notice on occasion him taking his team out of games (mostly in years past). I’d also like to point out the “heave” I’ve already tried to throw out. I also play defense like Shane, in that I make sure to put my hands in front of the shooting players eyes. If you can do it, it makes the shot ridiculously more difficult.

by as11osu on Feb 15, 2009 10:43 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Given that the author is the same guy that wrote Moneyball

can he rip off himself?

by Royster on Feb 16, 2009 12:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Best quote I've ever read in my entire life

The virus that infected professional baseball in the 1990s, the use of statistics to find new and better ways to value players and strategies, has found its way into every major sport.

I wonder if I can buy software to block stats from showing up on my computer.

Release your inner Kraken

by Dragline on Feb 16, 2009 6:07 AM PST reply actions 0 recs