The Sched Ahead -- All Star Break Edition

SUMMARY INFO (rehashed)

Four categories of games (now with additional names for the non-numerically inclined):

1. Home games against sub .500 teams.  Cream Puff Home.
2. Home games against winning teams (I'm including teams right at .500 in this category).  Jawbreaker Home.
3. Road games at losing teams.  Banana Peel Road.
4. Road games at winning teams.  Rocky Road.

A general formula for success in the NBA is to win almost all of Cat 1 (Cream Puff Home), a majority of Cat 2 (Jawbreaker Home) and Cat 3 (Banana Peel Road), and win some in Cat 4 (Rocky Road).  The contenders may win more than half of their Cat 4 games.

Discussed further by ulc and here. 

Last Week

Two Weeks Ago

DAILY UPDATE

Yesterday's update.

Well, at least we got another back to back out of the way, and probably our last game before Steve is back.  We're now 3 games below .500 on the road, which isn't exactly elite.

Boston (on a back to back) wins at Dallas, despite Dirk playing the refs to get KG in foul trouble.  Doc got himself ejected, which may have helped on succeeding whistles.  Perhaps Nate needs to do the same sometimes when the refs are particularly bad.  The fact that he never does it means that it would really catch their attention if he were to do it for once.  Jason Terry's absence may have swung this game.

COMMENTS ON THE WEEK

Portland (1-1) won a Cream Puff Home (Cat 1) and lost a Banana Peel Road (Cat3).  Not a very good week.

Dallas (1-1) won a Cream Puff and lost a Jawbreaker Home (Cat 2) to Boston.  Hurt themselves with that loss, will be interesting to see how things go with Jason Terry out.

Denver (2-0) wins two Rocky Roads in Florida, and goes into the break on a tear.

Houston (1-1) lost more ground, with yet another Banana Peel loss (at Milwaukie) and a Cream Puff win at home against the Kings (yawn).   

L.A. (1-1) split a back to back, winning a Cream Puff at home against OKC, then losing a Rocky Road to Utah.  Lost a little ground (not that it matters much).

N.O. (0-2) had a very bad week, losing a Banana Peel at Memphis and a Jawbreaker Home against Boston.  Chris Paul is healthy again, but will Chandler still be with them a week from now? 

Phoenix (0-2).  Sunday, I said, "Just when you thought they were dead...."  Perhaps last week was a false dawn for them.  But they were definitely on a Rocky Road this week, and I don't think anyone should read too much into losses at Philly (on a back to back) and Cleveland -- lots of teams would have lost those games.  Definitely in trouble, and hurt themselves this week, but don't write them off -- even if they trade Amare.  Team chemistry is a funny thing.

The Spurs (1-1) hurt themselves with a Banana Peel split (NJ-W, Tor-L) on back to back nights.   

Utah (1-0) had another good week, winning their only game at home against the L@kers.  Watch these guys.  The schedule hasn't been very nice to them, but that is about to change for a while, and they are about to get healthy.  It will be no surprise if they make a run at 50 wins, though much better than that would be very tough.   

Helped themselves:  Denver, Utah.

Treading Water: No one.

Hurt themselves somewhat:  Portland, Dallas, Houston, L.A., S.A.

Screaming in Agony: N.O., Phoenix.

The tables:

Cat 4 -- Rocky Road

Denver cleared two of these, winning both.  L.A. lost one, and Phoenix lost 2.  Utah, Phoenix, and Dallas still have a lot of these left.

Cat 3 -- Banana Peel Road 

Portland (second week in a row), Houston (fourth week in a row), and San Antonio each lost one of these.  Our loss (and the Spurs) was on a back to back, so at least there is an excuse.  Houston's excuse was that they didn't recognize Milwaukie's players because so many of their best players were injured.  Or something.  If we want a high seed, we need to get back to winning these games.  If Houston wants to stay ahead of the 8-9 battle, they should, too.

Cat 2 -- Jawbreaker Home

Dallas and N.O both lost one of these (both to Boston) and Utah won one (to L.A.).  Our success in these games will go a long way towards determining our seeding.

Cat 1 -- Cream Puff Home

No losses in these games this week. 

All Home Games

All Away Games

The big disparities in home/away games remaining are fading.  The team that is hurt on this (other than L.A.) is the Hornets, but other than that it is relatively even. 

We still have the second best home record, but our road record is lagging.  Denver has been very good at home all year, but now they are doing a job on the road, as well.  Barring significant injury, I think you can stick a fork in the division title races, they are pretty much done.

All Games Against Winning Teams

Denver may have it tough the next couple of weeks, but over all, their remaining schedule is now slightly easier than ours.  Phoenix is now 4 games below .500 against winning teams, Dallas 3 games below.   

All Games Against Losing Teams

Back to Back Games

Our edge in this factor is pretty much gone.  Utah still has the heaviest schedule in this category, but not that much worse than ours. 

Winning/Losing Standings

How many games have been played against winning teams, and how many against losing teams -- and how many are remaining.

Advantage for Denver here, disadvantage for Houston, Utah, and Dallas.

The Important Stuff

Here is the vital stuff:  the jscot Stupid Sched Projections. 

Standard Disclaimer:  How these work (if they can be said to work, which is doubtful), and why they are stupid, is explained in previous posts.  Do not blame me.  This is only the numbers.  It isn't the spreadsheet's fault, either, the spreadsheet is only doing what it is told to do.  Someone was stupid enough to tell the spreadsheet to do it, but we don't want to discuss that.

Playoff seedings if everyone keeps winning in every category at exactly the same rate for the rest of the season, and if no .500 or better team turns into a losing team, or vice versa (is that enough disclaimers)?

1. L.A. -- 65.8 wins, down from 66.9.
2. Denver -- 56.7 wins, big move up from 54.3 in third.  They appear to be for real.
3. S.A. -- 55.7 wins, down from 57.0 in second.  They may end up regretting throwing that game in Denver.
4. Portland -- 51.2 wins, down from 52.2.  Fortunately, the teams below us struggled this week, too.
5. Houston -- 49.7 wins, down from 50.2, but up from 6th.  Their loss at Milwaukie didn't hurt them as much as our loss at G.S. hurt us because they've lost so many of that kind of game that the spreadsheet somewhat expects it.
6. Dallas -- 49.3 wins, down from 49.9, but up from 7th.  The drop was due to a home loss to Boston, but those things happen.  Dallas is still looking like a pretty solid playoff team.
7. N.O. -- 49.2 wins, down from 51.9 in 5th.  Fourth seedings drop in five weeks, this time dropping two spots.  If they still have their full team after the break, they will eventually start to move up, though their schedule the first few games after the break is very tough. 
8. Utah -- 45.1 wins, up from 44.6 in 9th.  The Utah/Phoenix flip-flop continues, this week Utah is on top (and may stay there). 
9. Phoenix -- 43.9 wins, down from 44.9 in 8th.  Very painful week for a team that really couldn't afford that much pain.

Weird Week

Who would have thought that a week where we beat NY at home and lose at G.S. would strengthen our seedings position?  But that is what happened, as our position relative to N.O. is significantly better, and Houston and Dallas both took losses as well.

I still think Phoenix is better than their projection -- it only has 44 wins (8 over .500), and they are currently already 5 over .500.  But no one knows what their team will look like next week.

One Team Focus -- Utah Jazz

I thought it would be of interest to focus in on one team and compare their schedule to ours, going forward.  This is all in the tables above, but it all gets lost in all the noise of the other teams.  I'll do Utah, though if someone wants to go through and do it with someone else, in the comments, be my guest.  Everything is there in the tables above.  Unfortunately, I don't have time to do more right now.

We are 32-20, Utah is 30-23, a gap of 2 1/2 games.  If we stay ahead of them, we are 1) in the playoffs and 2) probably in the top 6.  Can we stay ahead of them? 

We have 7 Rocky Road (Cat 4) games left, they have 10.  Four of ours are on back to backs, five of theirs are.  Neither team has won a single one of these games on a back to back.  We're both bad at these games, even when not on a back to back (but they are worse).  Prediction:  three more games and one more back to back means somewhere between 1-4 extra losses for Utah.

On Banana Peel Road Games (Cat 3), we have seven left, and they have five.  Two of ours and one of theirs are back to backs.  They are 7-7 on these games, we are 8-4.  Three of our losses here have come with Blake out (Charlotte, OKC, G.S.), and he'll be back.  We've gone 3-1 in our back to backs in this category.  Two more games and one more back to back works against us.  Utah has been bad at these games, not just this year but last year as well, which works against them, while we've been very good with Blake.  Prediction:  between one extra loss for us and one extra loss for them in this category.

On Jawbreaker Home Games (Cat 2), we have nine left, they have seven.  Theirs include Boston, New Orleans, Denver, and Houston (2).  Ours include S.A., L.A. (2), Dallas, Denver, and Utah (who will be on a back to back).  They are 10-4 on these, we are 9-4 -- roughly equal.  They were superb on these when healthy last year, but that's a tough lineup, so I don't expect them to sweep, but I expect them to be better at us in this category, and we have more games left in it.  Prediction:  between 1-3 extra losses for us.

On Cat 1 Cream Puff Home Games, we both have seven left.  We are 11-1, they are 11-2 on these.  Two of theirs, and none of ours, are back to back.  The only one we lost was a back to back.  They only one they have played on a back to back they lost (to NJ).  There's a chance they drop one on one of those back to backs.  There's a chance either team could drop another game as well, but not likely more than that.  Prediction: between 1 extra loss for us and 2 extra losses for them.

Worst case in every category: Cat 4 -- +1 for us, Cat 3 -- +1 for them, Cat 2 -- +3 for them, Cat 1 -- +1 for them.  Sums up to 4 extra losses for us, which would give them one more loss than them.

Best case in every category: Cat 4 -- +4 for us, Cat 3 -- +1 for us, Cat 2 -- +1 for them, Cat 1 -- +2 for us.  Sums up to 6 extra losses for them, which would give us a 9 game edge.

So, I'm predicting here that Utah will finish somewhere between 1 game ahead of us and 9 games behind us, based on the difficulty of remaining games.  What could impact that significantly? 

They play in Portland on March 31 after playing at home against NY the night before.  The Utah/Portland back to back is a hard one, and NY will run them up and down the court, which makes them more tired and makes the back to back that much harder.  Meanwhile, we will have two days off after a home game against Memphis.  Huge edge for Portland in every respect.  We should win that game without a lot of trouble.

But if Utah wins it, then they shift the probabilities significantly.  They increase their chance of not dropping games in Cat 4 (or at least dropping fewer), and by inflicting a loss on us in a game that is a Cat 2 for us, they increase their chance of gaining more on us in that category.  If they win that, we might be looking at them finishing somewhere between 3 ahead of us and 7 behind us -- still an edge to us, but not as big by any means -- and it gives them the tiebreaker.

Of course, by the time that game is played, we will know how a lot of other games have played out, and it all may be somewhat moot by that point -- or we may be fighting for our lives.  But I mention that game to show that, while we are three games ahead and the schedule is very favorable to us, Utah does have a chance to alter the picture with a big win in a key game.  Hopefully, we can take care of business in other games to the point where it doesn't matter much, and then put a good whipping on them that night just to emphasize the point.

That's all for this time, but anyone is welcome to compare us to Denver, Phoenix, or anyone else, just using the tables.