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Bill Simmons Trade Value article on Ode/Bynum

“The two toughest calls in the column. Oden would be in "Group I” if I didn’t invoke the Darko/Dumars Corollary: Namely, that his Trade Value is artificially high only because his GM would never admit, “Holy mother of $#%@ did I screw that pick up!” House and I discussed this during our preview podcast, but it’s worth rehashing here: Oden lacks a basketball fluidness that every other great center had. He has more of a power game — all quick bursts, some occasional flashes, some “wow” rebounding/defensive plays, but ultimately, it’s just hard to imagine him consistently dominating games. He’s just all over the place. And that’s before we get to his structural issues, the cloud lingering over him and the way he apparently retreated into a shell off the court. Awesome person, interesting talent, some real promise … but would you bet on his putting it all together? If I offered you $10,000 on “over/under for Oden’s career All-Star Appearances: 4.5,” would you want the over or the under? I’d want the under. It’s just the safer bet. As for Bynum, I would have jumped him to Group E if Kobe hadn’t intentionally injured his teammate’s knee Jeff Gillooly-style. (Just kidding, Lakers fans. Just kidding. Jokes. Settle down.) Either way, it’s a bad sign for Portland’s 2007 draft that (A) the Blazers don’t even have the best under-22 center in their own conference, and (B) we’re still four groups away from getting to the guy the Blazers passed up."

It is funny because last night I was thinking how Oden’s limp appears to have gone away and his game is looking more and more fluid. What are your thoughts?

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Oh wait does it count when you started the fanpost?

by Escrote on Feb 12, 2009 10:15 AM PST reply actions  

It never counts

because it can never get past “first”.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Feb 12, 2009 10:23 AM PST up reply actions  

He also loves

him some B-roy. Top ten trade value and top five favorite non-Celtics to watch in the league? We moan a lot about not getting national respect, but he has a huge readership and is plugging us. What annoyed me more than his Oden comments were those that he made about KP. You’re privy to what entails the last nerve for 29 GMs in the league? Really?

by BlazersOrBust on Feb 12, 2009 10:29 AM PST reply actions  

Oh ok. So when you're pals with Paul Allen

to the point where he emails you asking for your opinion on their trades and drafts, we can talk about how plugged in you are.

by howlingfantods on Feb 12, 2009 11:52 AM PST up reply actions  

Dude

he can disagree with your comment without saying that he is more plugged in than Simmons.

by BlazersOrBust on Feb 12, 2009 4:43 PM PST up reply actions  

for a columnist

I agree that he is. I just found several parts of his column pretentious, that one included — he can’t speak for every GM’s feelings about KP, but he acts like he’s omniscient.

The whole entry for D-Wade rubbed me the wrong way too. Oh really, Bill? You predicted that Wade was gonna have a great bounce-back season???? Wow, way to go out on a limb there, big guy. Don’t knock yourself off of it patting yourself on the back.

by BlazersOrBust on Feb 12, 2009 4:42 PM PST up reply actions  

on the podcast

he was not that kind to b-roy (from a hometown fan position). he never really said anything nice about the other blazers on the list.

by cornplant on Feb 12, 2009 11:10 AM PST up reply actions  

Also note his comments on KP:

“Rudy Fernandez: Cheap contract, tons of skills and the female fans dig him. Although it’s hard to evaluate the Trade Value of Portland players fairly, because Kevin Pritchard is delusionally convinced every Blazers’ ceiling ranges from "Hall of Fame” to “One of the top 10 players of all-time.” Pritchard always gives you the feeling that he calls Michael Lewis once a week trying to convince him to write a “Moneyball” type book about the NBA … with Pritchard as the Billy Beane figure, of course. He’s just about worked the last nerve of the other 29 GMs. And that’s an understatement. I don’t know, I kind of enjoy him. There’s no question Jeremy Piven will play him in “Moneyball II: The Kevin Pritchard Story.” None."

Just fueling the fire, frat boy.

"Respect everyone, fear no one." -TP

by Arby on Feb 12, 2009 10:32 AM PST reply actions  

That was funny

I wonder what his beef is with KP?

by Escrote on Feb 12, 2009 10:35 AM PST up reply actions  

I don't think it's a beef with KP at all.

If anything, it’s a compliment of how KP does things. Simmons knows that KP’s methods don’t make GM’s happy necessarily cause he’s talked to a number of them in various capacities. But he also knows that his methods work based on results and common sense.

Think about it……if an NBA GM doesn’t make a move that has the potential to improve their team, and then doesn’t do it, and then explains to their fans that they rejected the deal because they don’t like KP and were worried they’d get played by him………it wouldn’t be KP that looked bad.

Yes! Yes! In the face!

by LeafHawk on Feb 12, 2009 10:40 AM PST up reply actions  

Simmons LOVES KP

even though he thinks Pritchard blew the Oden pick.

I’m sure Simmons would be happy were the Celtics and the Blazers to swap GMs. Ainge got incredibly lucky two summers ago, and had two of the best players in the NBA dumped in his lap. But Danny Boy is not the guy you want building a team from scratch…

by EngineerScotty on Feb 12, 2009 11:04 AM PST up reply actions  

I e-mailed Simmons

Was very respectful and did not cuss and even proof read it for typos (I hardly ever do that). I hope he respond but I am not holding my breath.

by Escrote on Feb 12, 2009 10:36 AM PST reply actions  

he hardly ever writes back

unless you mention karate kid or hoosiers

It was "mascot night" at the Rose Garden, which apparently translates to a dozen inflatable versions of various NBA mascots being chased around the arena by Portland's "Blaze", which is some breed of rapist dog. -PostingandToasting

by GreatOden'sRaven on Feb 12, 2009 12:07 PM PST up reply actions  

I think Bill Simmons refuses to realize

That “fluidness” comes almost directly from experience and poise. Power comes directly from size and a need to exert yourself. The same exact thing happened to Patrick Ewing. Came into the league a powerful diamond in the rough, and over time develops a fluidity that made him extremely successful and improved his longevity.

To expect a 20/21 year old kid who has played 40 NBA games to look like Yoa Ming out there is incredibly brash and impatient.

"Respect everyone, fear no one." -TP

by Arby on Feb 12, 2009 10:44 AM PST reply actions  

patience.

that’s all it comes down to. You don’t need patience to appreciate durant. Oden with 250 games under his belt is going to be just fine. He’s averaging 9 and 7 already — if he gets to 15 and 12, frankly, I think we’re good to go.

it’s a cliche that the big guys take longer, and clearly he’s raw, young, coming off injury, and hasn’t played fully healthy for what? 3 years?

Quite frankly, when he’s on, he’s everything I hoped for in his rookie year. and we all knew to expect some inconsistency.

I’m so not worried about oden.

by greyhound9 on Feb 12, 2009 10:56 AM PST reply actions  

do you disagree?

I have been on the fence with travis for a while, but I’m finding myself in the “must-keep” camp. I just keep thinking about Horry. Regular season? meh. Playoffs? Game changer. Series saver. I just don’t see how marginally better defense all the time is better. Maybe it gets you a few more wins in the regular season, but I don’t think we’ll be struggling to make the playoffs after this or next season.

Horry made several recent championships possible by hitting that clutch shot that saved a critical game or turned the momentum in a very tough series. Sometimes championship runs hinge on the last shot of game 3 in the conference semis. I want Outlaw for those shots.

by greyhound9 on Feb 12, 2009 11:03 AM PST up reply actions  

Travis needs to be augmented, not replaced

Obviously, if trading him away is the price to improve the team, then so be it.

But he’s a valuable weapon to have. He’d be more valuable if on those nights we need bruising defense off the bench, rather than shameless chucking, we’d have someone else to go to.

But when it comes to chucking, Trout does it well.

It’s the chuckers who can’t shoot half the time (Juan Dixon) that annoy me; not the guys who are money with the ball in their hands.

by EngineerScotty on Feb 12, 2009 11:06 AM PST up reply actions  

No

At 4 million, Travis has a very fair contract.

The cake is a lie. Trade the cake!

by Norsktroll on Feb 12, 2009 11:06 AM PST up reply actions  

I don't want Outlaw traded unless it's for a significantly better player at the same position, like C. Butler.

Personally I love the guy and think his pros far outweigh his cons. And his contract is awesome in terms of our future flexibility.

Also, “Mrs. Outlaw,” in Sec. 331, will fall into abject depression if her “husband” is dealt, and none of us sitting near her want to see that happen.

by Badalona Baddie on Feb 12, 2009 11:07 AM PST up reply actions  

I think you are right

I think people seriously underestimate the impact Travis can have in the playoffs.

In a game where every basket is a fight to the death, and 84 points is going to win the game, the impact of having a guy come in and hitting 7-8 unstoppable shots can be pretty significant.

And Travis is so cool in the clutch that the ice-water running through his veins has stopped global warming in its tracks.

When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.

by jscot on Feb 12, 2009 11:55 AM PST up reply actions  

Not that it matters much

but I suppose the column was written before last night’s game. Durant looked more mortal out there, and Oden was a beast.

Of course, in both OKC/PDX games so far, the best player on the floor has probably been the only All-Star on either team, Brandon Roy.

A question—I ask in the JD but I’ll ask here, as it’s probably more relevant:

Who would trade Roy for Durant straight up?

I would have to think hard on that one…. Roy’s a better overall player right now; Durant has a higher ceiling. (Whether he reaches that ceiling is the big issue). Give the current structure of the Blazers, Roy is a better fit—were we to move to Durant then I’d want a top-notch playmaking PG (more Sergio and less Bayless, albeit with better D) and a SG who can hit open shots and play good defense. Roy would be great next to Westbrook and Green in OKC.

by EngineerScotty on Feb 12, 2009 11:02 AM PST reply actions  

Too bad this is only a dream

“With the first pick of the 2007 NBA draft Portland selects Greg Oden and Kevin Durant”

C- Oden
PF – Aldridge
SF- Durant
SG – Roy
PG – does it really matter at this point

Sorry I tend to let my mind wander a bit.

by Escrote on Feb 12, 2009 11:05 AM PST up reply actions  

Ceiling

I kind of think Roy’s still got plenty of ceiling left. For him it’s more about reading his own body in game situations. Take for example that facial dunk over the 7 footer, or the 52 point explosion against Phoenix. Afterwards he often seems surprised in himself that he can do those things. He reminds me of a superhero whose just discovering his superpowers day to day, game by game.

by Stryder9 on Feb 12, 2009 2:28 PM PST up reply actions  

+1

Every year you hear people saying that Roy has reached his ceiling, and yet every hear he just keeps getting better. I think his ceiling is a lot higher than most people realize.

by trk on Feb 12, 2009 4:42 PM PST up reply actions  

You have to see past this and realize he even put Greg pretty high up among all players in that list

That would not have happened last season or even in November when he and other pundits were calling Oden an injury prone bust left and right.

The cake is a lie. Trade the cake!

by Norsktroll on Feb 12, 2009 11:05 AM PST reply actions  

I suspect Greg is too low.

BTW, here’s the link to the Simmons article, since it’s not in the lead.

At any rate, were Portland to call up Dallas and offer Oden straight up for Dirk Nowitzki, no way do the Mavs say no. Oden’s probably not in the top 10 right now… but many NBA talent evaluators seem to think we have a beast and not a bust on our hands—and that Oden merely lacks seasoning, not skill.

by EngineerScotty on Feb 12, 2009 11:09 AM PST reply actions  

hmm...

I bet they say no.

Cuban has that algorythm that says Kidd is still a world beater.

I doubt Dallas is ready to cut ties with their MVP yet… maybe in a couple more years.

Give the man his "M"!!!

by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Feb 12, 2009 11:15 AM PST up reply actions  

That looks like a pretty good list to me

Roy at #9
Oden at #25
LMA at #31 (that puts him above #36 STAT…)
Rudy as an honorable mention

by trk on Feb 12, 2009 5:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Taking a step back

I’m as big an Oden fan as there is. A couple weeks ago, I let myself stop worrying about all the craziness around his performance this season. It’s been refreshing, and it’s allowed me to appreciate his good games (really, how great was he last night?!) while not losing sleep over his bad ones.

As others have pointed out, this is A ROOKIE WHO PLAYED ONE YEAR OF COLLEGE AND THEN SAT OUT A FULL SEASON. So maybe we can all afford to wait a little while before deciding whether he’s all that? A couple things:

1) Interesting that Simmons regularly compares Oden (a rookie) to Durant (not a rookie, not coming off an injury). Now he compares him to Bynum, who is in his 3rd year. Why not compare Oden’s rookie value to Bynum’s? And isn’t Bynum a great example of why we shouldn’t judge young big men too quickly?

2) A couple weeks ago, Simmons said he loves DeAndre Jordan, the Clippers rookie center. Might make sense to compare him with Oden, since they’re both rookie centers who played one year of college. (Points to Jordan because Oden went higher, points to Oden because he sat out a year.) Did you watch Jordan on Oden in the Portland/Clippers game last month? Mismatch.

3) Simmons loves Roy now, but if you look back over the last couple years, his comments have not been so positive — at best, he would generally damn Roy with faint praise. Now he has changed his tune, and he may do the same with Oden, eventually.

Point is, this is all way too early. I’m done letting it make me upset, because it’s so clearly silly.

by Hawthorne Wingo on Feb 12, 2009 11:13 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

It's interestint that Simmons has Robin Lopez

at 39 or so… many have suggested that he’s the best center of this rookie class. Yet I think Lopez’ ceiling is right around what we’re seeing; and Oden hasn’t scratched the surface.

by EngineerScotty on Feb 12, 2009 11:17 AM PST up reply actions  

You mean Brook?

Brook doesn’t have great potential, but there are so few traditional post scoring big men in the league these days he is a rare commodity. And, he could get better the way Al Jefferson has improved his game. I’d rather have Lopez than Horford.

Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs

by Ozzie Montana on Feb 12, 2009 11:20 AM PST up reply actions  

Yeay, Brook

I get my Lopezes mixed up…. as neither of them is Jennifer, I don’t much care. :)

by EngineerScotty on Feb 12, 2009 11:21 AM PST up reply actions  

Not so sure about your points about Roy

Simmons repeatedly said that Roy was the most NBA-ready player in his draft class, but it was concerns about his knees that would cause him to slide. That seems like more than faint praise to me.

by tingeyga on Feb 12, 2009 12:33 PM PST up reply actions  

I would happily take Simmon's $10,000

by taking the over on Greg’s all-stqar appearances. Really in five years greg will be entering his prime and will be an allstar at least once. Greg will get some loving by the voting process and if for some reason he slips throught the fans the coaches will put him on the roster. What centers does he have to beat; Shaq has one maybe two years left in the league. Yao is in his prime and will be going downhill in 5 years time. Only Bynum will offer serious contention to Oden. And I’d be happy to put up ten grand theat both thtose guys will be making the allstar team 5 times or more.

As for Greg’s trade value, Simmon’s is still bitter KP didn’t trade Greg to Boston on draft night.

by NWfan on Feb 12, 2009 11:19 AM PST reply actions  

Considering they won a title last year

And could win one this year, I don’t think he cares anymore about not landing Oden or Durant.

Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs

by Ozzie Montana on Feb 12, 2009 11:21 AM PST up reply actions  

+/- 4.5 all-star appearances

It sounds like a good bet but who want’s to have 10 grand tied up for the next 10 or so years?

by Escrote on Feb 12, 2009 11:24 AM PST up reply actions  

remember

yao will be a starter for maybe the next eight years, so that is one less spot
but i would still take the over

by cornplant on Feb 12, 2009 11:32 AM PST up reply actions  

Yeah

as long as he is in the league and the fans are voting on the starters. You can’t fight the Chinese… Yi almost got in.

by Escrote on Feb 12, 2009 11:33 AM PST up reply actions  

Really?

Yao got 6th this year. Maybe if there was competition at the Center spot they’d vote for him more, but I think the Chinese are getting lazy!

I’d definitely bet over with a disclaimer that included an injury since Simmons’ point is that a healthy Oden can’t do it. Give Oden 8+ healthy years and I bet over in a heartbeat.

by Zaig on Feb 12, 2009 12:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Good time to put up the collateral in stock

As I know I won’t be selling any time soon anyway. This is a moot point since only Simmon’s would be forking over any money.

by NWfan on Feb 12, 2009 4:16 PM PST up reply actions  

I hope Oden mirrors Durant

Durant really started playing good ball about the last 20 games of last season, this little break for all-star weekend could be a huge plus for Greg. I think Oden looks alot more comfortable in the defensive paint the last couple games, and those baby jump hooks from his left or right hand will be his bread and butter in the future.

I try to help with everything," Fernandez said. "If the coach says go rebound, I go rebound. I work for the team.

""If I'm playing this game to get media and attention, I shouldn't be here," Aldridge said. "I'm here to play basketball, and do what I can do to help this team win."

by Dragonage on Feb 12, 2009 11:34 AM PST reply actions  

How do Durant's first 40 games compare?

I understand Simmons’ POV, but you have to compare apples to apples. Durant looked decent last year as the primary weapon on a horrible team, but he is just now coming into his own, a year later. Nobody was really singing KD’s praises at comparible points in their respective careers. Saying KP screwed up with his pick (keep in mind we already had Aldridge and Roy from a scoring standpoint, and no LONG TERM plan for a big man…don’t get me wrong, I love Joel, but he’s not someone you build a championship team around) is very premature.

"Respect everyone, fear no one." -TP

by Arby on Feb 12, 2009 11:38 AM PST reply actions  

Here are Durant's rookie numbers

from before the All-Star break (50 games):
33.1 mpg, 19.4 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.2 apg, 40.2% fg, 28.2, 3pt, 86.5 ft%

At this point last year people were saying that Durant needed to improve his shot selection, which he seemed to improve in after the all-star break when shot 47.6% from the field
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/psplit.cgi?player=duranke01&year=2008

by tingeyga on Feb 12, 2009 12:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Simmons makes good points

We are optimistic as Blazer fans (I definitely am in this camp) that Greg will continue to develop, polish skills, gain fluidity and poise, and in the end dominate.

However, it hasn’t happened yet (at least not anything near consistently), and until it does, you can’t expect people to be convinced. What Simmons said is legitimate for what Greg has shown so far.

The awesome thing is that Greg does seem to be putting some things together as of late, and the foul-happy games are a smidgen fewer and further between.

by MavetheGreat on Feb 12, 2009 11:40 AM PST reply actions  

Simmons may rip on Oden

but he wants the Blazers to succeed. He is the forebearer of the “Lebron James to Portland in 2010” movement, as well as advocating Nash to Portland, Butler to Portland and pretty much every veteran superstar that wants to win a championship to Portland. He knows what is going down here.

by Jiggamant on Feb 12, 2009 11:59 AM PST reply actions  

Scary thing about Oden...

November to January
+2.2 mpg (shrugs)
+2.2ppg (nice)
-.8 rpg (boo)
-.4 apg (boo)
+.4 spg (nice)
-.8 bpg (booo)
-.1 topg (shrugs)
+.3 pfpg (small boo)

Other than the +2.2 ppg, we’re not seeing him move up in anything really.

His scoring + rebounding per month has been 15.8, 15.3, 17.2, 16.6 (5 game in Feb.) I’d like to see him at least stay at 17-18 in February and hopefully improve to 19-20 in March. Going 12/8 over the final month of his rookie season isn’t too much to ask of Oden if he will be what we hope he can be.

by Zaig on Feb 12, 2009 12:42 PM PST reply actions  

That

first game verse OKC really hurt his average.

by Escrote on Feb 12, 2009 1:02 PM PST up reply actions  

I think Simmons actually put Oden at around the right place (I would have had Greg a couple spots higher but not many)

but I didn’t like Simmons contract. This is a kid with a PER of nearly 18, 2nd among rookies and 12th among Centers, despite not regaining his full pre-surgery explosiveness. A PER of 18 is really good for a 21 year old big man.

In short, Simmons didn’t under-rank Greg but the comments were unreasonably disparaging in my opinion.

Boomshakalaka

by jksnake99 on Feb 12, 2009 2:20 PM PST reply actions  

When the Blazers had the #1 pick...

…reportedly the Spurs offered Duncan in exchange. Not sure if that’s true, but…

One wonders if that offer would still be on the table today, and if KP would take it. Obviously Duncan nowadays is a far better player than Oden, far far far far far… but he’s getting up there in years. Timmy is almost as old as me, and while his game hasn’t lost very much—he is on the slow slide down.

’Twould be a gamble. For either side.

by EngineerScotty on Feb 12, 2009 5:50 PM PST up reply actions  

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