Oden's quickness and Bayless's court vision
by Clevelander among roses on Feb 10, 2009 11:37 PM PST
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PrintI've been reading consistently in comments by BEdge members that they have been disappointed by Oden's lack of quickness on the defensive end, and Bayless's lack of court vision. Mostly Oden's quickness has been either been written off as being a result of his injury, or an indictment of his athleticism. Similarly, Bayless's court vision is mostly written off as an attitude thing - he's looking to score, rather than distribute. While both of those hypothesis are potentially correct, I would like to explore an additional theory for both of them: They are rookies.
First, covering Oden's quickness: Being a football fan, I know that young linebackers often seem a lot slower than experienced players, despite testing faster in shorts. That seemingly contradictory set of facts is explained by the reaction time and anticipation level of the experienced player being far superior to the rookie. They know the defensive schemes, they know their role, they know the abilities of most of the opposing players, and there aren't too many situations that they haven't seen before.
Oden is like that rookie linebacker, who has to think as he plays instead of simply reacting to a situation. This hypothesis is backed by the fact that Oden's "quickness" seems to change from game to game, progressing and regressing almost nightly. The only thing really changing is the opposing team and players, and the offensive schemes that the opposing teams run. Oden has to think about his role vs unfamiliar players and schemes, and that makes him look slower. Additionally, the lack of anticipation and reaction time also probably contributes to his fouling, as he's a half-step slow in getting to a spot.
Similarly, Bayless has a reputation as lacking in court vision, especially compared with Sergio. That may have some element of truth, but it may also be explained by the fact that Bayless is a rookie, and that he does not know our offensive schemes nearly as well as Sergio or Blake. Sergio and Blake not only know where they are supposed to be, but they also know where the other players on the team are going to be, and that allows them to make passes that make it appear as though they have eyes in the back of their head. Bayless still has to become experienced in running some of the schemes in game situations, and has to learn to anticipate what his teammates will do. That will come easier with experience.
I look forward to watching Bayless and Greg grow in seasons to come, as their weaknesses become strengths, simply by adding years of experience.
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I agree about Oden.. when he learns the defense better and gets more comfortable with the
refs, his defensive quickness will show up
The quickness point I agree with,
and you could say the same thing about Trout.
As to the Bayless court vision issue, he’ll get better, but remember what it was like when Sergio first came in? He just saw openings and got the ball in there. Some times, he saw openings where there weren’t openings, and it would lead to turnovers, but there’s a reason that people were salivating over him and he was getting those Nash comparisons once upon a time.
Look at how Blake’s career has progressed. He’s developed a solid awareness of what he can and can’t do, but I wouldn’t say he’s ever developed any more of a vision like you could say of a Nash, Kidd, Paul, or even Sergio (if you have your Sergio homer glasses on).
No matter how comfortable Blake or Bayless get, they’re probably not going to be tossing too many oops from the top of the key, just like no matter how much Sergio works out, he’s not going to develop Bayless’s touch around the rim. It’s just a different talent that doesn’t really develop for guys by the time they get to the league.
I agree that Sergio had a flair right away
And others have also coming into the league. That being said, I think Sergio’s passing and court vision have gotten better with his experience, and I expect the same degree of improvement from Bayless. I don’t think Bayless will ever be as good as Sergio, and I didn’t mean to give that impression, but I do think he will improve more in that aspect of the game than any other offensive skill, just by being on the court and getting experience.
Travis Outlaw is an alien, but in a good way.
Awesome Graphic was provided by CIC, because he felt like he should be hazed.
by Clevelander among roses on Feb 10, 2009 11:53 PM PST up reply actions
I agree with both of you
Sergio has “it” and by “it” i mean a natural ability to see the court in ways that few NBA players do. And, he had it from day one.
Bayless doesn’t have this natural skill, but I agree that he’ll get better. I don’t think he’ll ever be much more than an average distributor though. whether or not this is something we need is another debate.
I agree that you were agreeing with both of us
Travis Outlaw is an alien, but in a good way.
Awesome Graphic was provided by CIC, because he felt like he should be hazed.
by Clevelander among roses on Feb 10, 2009 11:59 PM PST up reply actions
I agree with everyone about the agreeing.
by dario argento on Feb 11, 2009 12:02 AM PST up reply actions
Can’t we all just disagree to agree for a change?
GO
THE TEACHER ......come into my classroom "THE PAINT" for some tutelage.
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"The rancor reflected in that remark I won't dignify with comment. But I'll address your general attitude of hopeless negativism." – Everett "O Brother, where art Thou?"
I totally disagree with you on that cause you’re absolutely right.
GO
THE TEACHER ......come into my classroom "THE PAINT" for some tutelage.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"The rancor reflected in that remark I won't dignify with comment. But I'll address your general attitude of hopeless negativism." – Everett "O Brother, where art Thou?"
I see your agreement
and raise you one morre.
yup
I don’t think he’ll ever be much more than an average distributor though. whether or not this is something we need is another debate.
I think that is the debate. What goes best next to Roy? Roy is so dominate and so unique in ways that it makes finding a pairing for him quite the puzzle…..
RUDY > MJ
Don't you think Sergio could be more of a Jason Kidd type of point guard?
Would he ever develop to that level? Because he isn’t a scorer unless given the basket, and probably not ever gonna be a really good jump shooter. His D, well, still in progress.
"- It was "mascot night" at the Rose Garden, which apparently translates to a dozen inflatable versions of various NBA mascots being chased around the arena by Portland's "Blaze", which is some breed of rapist dog."
Seth: Posting and Toasting
Seems like
there’s a better chance of Bayless becoming a Parker/Harris type of pg than Sergio becoming a Kidd type pg.
Agreed
Kidd is 6’6", strong, and deceptively fast. Sergio is 6’3" and weighs 175#. It is difficult to see him becoming Jason Kidd.
Bayless is built more like a smaller version of D Wade than like Parker. He is fast, but not uber-fast like Parker. I would say that his ceiling is something like a combo of the two.
by upper left corner on Feb 11, 2009 8:45 AM PST up reply actions
Kidd came out of Cal ready made as a PG
Bayless, not so much. – Elgin
Since when do we need to ponder to froth? - jscot
Roy himself
Has gone on record (sorry, don’t have the citation in front of me) that he’s most comfortable playing with Blake at the 1.
On two occasions Roy has endorsed Bayless and compared him to D Wade.
One was after the draft the other was after Bayless scored his 23. Roy said “turn him loose.” Roy also compares trying to guard Bayless in practice to trying to guard D Wade because he is so strong and aggressive.
by upper left corner on Feb 11, 2009 8:48 AM PST up reply actions
Roy played with Nate Robinson for a long time...
Maybe Roy playing next to a take no prisoners driving kamikaze is a perfect fit for him. He’s the calming influence, the other guy is there to kill.
by bamkapow on Feb 11, 2009 8:38 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Good points
About Oden-
Oden is being asked to do things on defense that are very difficult for a guy his size. He is being asked to jump out and guard smaller, quicker perimeter players in a lot of situations where other centers like Przybilla would just be asked to drop back and defend the paint. This is something that he was probably always going to struggle with as a rookie, even without the microfracture surgery. Nate isn’t stupid and he realizes that Greg would probably be better off right now if he just stayed back in the paint, but he believes that Greg is quick enough that he will be able to handle this sort of defensive assignment once he gets more experience.
About Bayless-
I agree that court vision is more of a skill issue than an attitude issue, and it could be improved by knowing the sets better- but only a little bit. I think the basic problem is that when Bayless dribbles, he keeps his head down and it seems like he has to focus half of his attention just on dribbling the ball. I remember hearing how Blake impressed KP by quickly dribbling a ball around some cones while wearing a blindfold, showing that he didn’t need to look at the ball at all to dribble effectively, which allows him to devote more attention to what is going on around him. I don’t think Bayless is capable of doing something like that right now. It is a skill that can be learned to some extent, though actually learning it can be difficult.
by trk on Feb 11, 2009 12:13 AM PST reply actions 3 recs
I agree about the dribbling skills
Roy and Blake are master ball handlers. They also both played 4 years of college under coaches that helped them to improve year after year along with 2+ years of NBA experience. A better comparison would be Bayless’ handle today vs Roy/Blake’s handle as Sophomores in college. Did you see Roy as a soph at UW? He was great, but his handle was nowhere near what it is today.
Any NBA basketball player who is getting paid millions to play a game should be able to do the simple fundamental tasks that his position requires… however, today’s draft is based on potential and kids with talent like Bayless are drafted as “high-ceiling” 19 year-olds who will drive you crazy with their inconsistency.
I suppose what I am saying is that it is unfair to compare Roy and Blake’s ball skills today to Bayless’. Those two have 5+ years of seasoning that Jerryd simply has not been through. Now, that being said, if after a few years he still looks at the ball when dribbling… then he’s in trouble.
kid: "Hey Jerryd, what's it feel like to dunk on someone?"
Jerryd: "It feels good"
by cic on Feb 11, 2009 9:09 AM PST up reply actions
Good point about college experience
Roy/Blake were indeed more polished when they joined the league. So the comparison isn’t totally apples-to-apples. Questions, I would ask though, is whether JB is missing out on the opportunity to learn these skills, and whether the missed opportunity means he never gets to learn?
In college, you are expected to make mistakes, and players are not pulled when they make mistakes. The level In college is lower and your mistakes are not usually as costly. So Roy/Blake got the opportunity to learn at game time for 40 hard minutes (or the portion of 40 mins that they were in the game). Outside of game time, at practice, coaches knew they were dealing with rawer skill sets and the general approach is to spend more 1:1 time and teach the kids.
In the league, how much are you learning if you’re not in the game. [Practices are not the same as game-time. Practices are for working on skills, you can think while you play – game time is to execute on what you learned at practice, and you cant think about the specific skill]. You get to stay in the game for the primary strength that got you into the league. If you’re good enough to get extended game time for your primary strength, then you might be able to improve your “secondary” skills.
Also, in the league it appears that individual coaching is mostly for good big-men, because they are harder to come by and are usually raw even after many years of college, because their size and strength disparity compensated for lack of skill at the college level.
The question in reply, I guess is “is what you got, what you get”? Dont know if I can recall any guards who developed a new skill that they did not already demonstrate the talent for. Even shooting skills, as best I can recall, poor shooters tended to extend their range over the years, or become a little more reliable, but did not transform into Reggie Millers, or Ray Allens.
I totally agree..
.. the way that I understand the common thought process on progression, as explained by NBA vets like Barkley, Magic and Jerry West is this: Team concepts are taught during regular season practice time. There may be a moment or two after/before practice when a young player can work individually with coaches, but for the most part individual skills are secondary. The time to improve dribbling/shooting and base fundamentals is during the off season. Jerryd certainly does not seem like the type of guy who will rest on his laurels once the season ends. I for one will be curious to see what his shot release (needs to be higher and quicker) and his ball-handling skills look like this time next year.
I agree that developing an entirely new skill is rare at this point, but Jerryd can already handle and shoot (watch some of his college tape), it is simply a matter him catching of the speed of the NBA game. He needs to be instinctive, and not reactionary and those are things that develop over time.
On the other hand, the most famous “head-down-dribbler” of all time, Mr. Clyde Drexler, he did alright and he never once looked up from the ground in 15 years in the NBA! :)
kid: "Hey Jerryd, what's it feel like to dunk on someone?"
Jerryd: "It feels good"
by cic on Feb 11, 2009 10:10 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Learning against better competition ...
can go one of two ways. The negative: through frustration you give up and don’t improve (e.g. Kwame Brown) or The positive: the Learning is accelerated as you learn the more effective tricks as you get burned by them. I think Bayless thorugh his tireless work effort will fall into the latter category. As evidence last nights 8 assts aginst the Thunder. My favorite was the pick and roll where Bayless dropped the ball to Pryz for the lay-in. He is showing that he cometimens gets the better mismatch by passing the by driving. That is growth through recognition.
rec
When I rule the world, everyone will know how to use Excel.
Thanks
Travis Outlaw is an alien, but in a good way.
Awesome Graphic was provided by CIC, because he felt like he should be hazed.
by Clevelander among roses on Feb 11, 2009 12:38 AM PST up reply actions
someone said earlier that Nate is telling Bayless to relentlessly attack the basket, which he is doing a good job off, He really can only improve.
I hope Oden’s quickness is due to his injury because if I see him hip check another guard that is trying take him baseline I just might flip out
by Peteyhasnohead on Feb 11, 2009 12:49 AM PST reply actions
Oden will be a beast
make no mistake about that. He will be better than Dwight Howard in 2 years.
Bayless, if he develops a consistent jumper, will be an all-star caliber player. You can argue and worry all you want, but he’s athletically superior to almost all PGs in the league. Plus, he’s an intelligent kid who wants nothing more than to become great, and constantly seeks knowledge to help him improve his game.
Another day, another buzzer-beater. This man is so clutch he sets his body clock to go off one second before his alarm does every morning.
So, basically what you are saying
Is that if we want to win a championship this season, that we should trade those two guys?
I’m kidding. I’m kidding. Swell post.
I like frogs.
as long as Shav isnt involved
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by GreatOden'sRaven on Feb 11, 2009 10:03 AM PST up reply actions
Bayless
Has had some sweet passes lately finding Outlaw or Roy alone at the arch while attacking the rim on a fast break. I think he’s trying to improve that part of his game which is why I’m in total agreement that this will one day become a positive for his game. Not necessarily a strength, but not a detriment.
Rookies
… especially those playing Center and PG often struggle to adjust to the tempo of the offensive sets in the NBA. There is simply not enough time in 24 seconds to think about where you need to be, you must instinctively react to the defensive pressure. Oden’s quickness will come as he becomes more confident in his post moves and positioning within the offense.
Similarly, Bayless has been in the flow of Nate’s system for a very short amount of time. He has a knack for getting to the basket, but at times is unsure where to go with the ball once the defense collapses on him.
When you really think about it, nearly 1/2 of Roy’s assists come from drives into the paint and kick-outs to jump shooters when the defense collapses. He has an innate awareness of where Blake, Rudy, LMA and Trout will be for a catch and shoot situation once he draws attention from multiple defenders.
Bayless has a drive to improve that 95% of NBA players lack. It is no secret that he’s the first to the gym and the last to leave and is constantly asking the veterans for advice on how to improve. Once he learns the tendencies of his teammates within the offensive flow, he will get those exact same kick-out assists that Roy does now. Jerryd is confident, he is brash, and often times his competitive nature has him coming off as immature, but “selfish”? Seriously? I just don’t see it.
Bayless is a natural scorer, it comes easy to him because it is all that he has known, but don’t for a second think that he is not a team player. His goal is to win games, not to score points for the sake of getting buckets and he will do whatever it takes to get better to help the team.
kid: "Hey Jerryd, what's it feel like to dunk on someone?"
Jerryd: "It feels good"
by cic on Feb 11, 2009 8:47 AM PST reply actions
About Bayless
Most folks agree that Bayless is going to be a top notch scorer:
He has a combination of strength, speed, and aggression that is unusual, which is why he is so good driving to the basket. When he calms down enough to hit his outside shot, he is going to be a load to defend. If you get up tight he is going to go around, if you sag off he is going to shoot over the top. Roy referred to guarding him in practice to be like guarding D Wade.
What people have questioned, and rightly so, is his ability to facilitate scoring. It seems to me that the key to Bayless becoming a good distributor is to learn to exploit the threat of his ability to score. When Bayless starts to drive, the defense almost instantly collapses. All he needs to do is take two steps toward the basket to get Roy’s defender to drop toward the key to help, if he swings the ball to Roy early, before he gets into heavy traffic, Roy should be open for a spot up three. He can also swing the ball to the corner, or drop it off to the bigs.
He doesn’t have to be a magician with the ball. He just has to learn to take advantage of the opportunities that his scoring ability creates.
by upper left corner on Feb 11, 2009 9:04 AM PST reply actions
Serg and Bayless
are not very comparable. It is unfair to compare them because they have different styles/agendas. Bayless is a scorer through and through, his ability to score will create opportunities for his teammates to score as defenses are forced to collapse on him. This is why it will take him a bit of time to learn to be effective sharing the ball. He has the ability to be a good set up man but only through his own ability to score. Segio is effective distributing the ball because this is his skill, not scoring. He is great at finding space and creating passing lanes for the rest of the team. He however is not a natural scorer so he suffers when teams realize they only need to play the passing lanes to render him ineffective. Sergio can learn to score and Bayless can learn to pass but they go about it way differently. Comparing there rookie years is unfair and inaccurate because they aren’t apples to apples. Sergio would be flouring in a D’Antoni system while Bayless is better fit for a Nate style of ball.
by The Natural ala Mode on Feb 11, 2009 5:15 PM PST up reply actions
Commenting on my own comment
I think the model of the point guard is changing. I think the days of the “pure point guard” are numbered. Think about the top young PGs in the league. They all can score, and most do something like I am suggesting to to create opportunities for their teammates. Chris Paul uses his ability to penetrate to create open looks for his team.
I think part of this is the change in the hand-check rule. It has made it even more difficult to keep guys from penetrating. By doing so it has increased the relative value of guards like Bayless who excel in this skill. I guess what I am saying is that a top scorer can learn to be a decent distributor more easily than a top passer can learn to score. Outside shooting is a skill that guys can learn; Blake is an excellent example. On the other hand, being able to penetrate and finish at the rim requires speed, strength, and athleticism; these are attributes that are difficult to teach.
by upper left corner on Feb 11, 2009 9:45 AM PST reply actions
I agree that the "pure point guard" is an increasingly rare thing...
A few Sergio-honks insist on saying (again and again) that “Bayless is not a point guard.” This is ludicrous. Of course he is. Here’s the model: Rajon Rondo. Tony Parker. Jordan Farmar. Very quick, prone to driving the lane, less oriented towards passing the ball.
The reason that the Stockton-Nash type of PG is so special is because they are so rare. Sergio certainly has the vision and passing capability to play on that level. There are certain other defects in his game that may well keep him from being an elite PG in that mold, but he certainly is a PG of that genre, as opposed to the CP3/Derek Fisher shooter-distributor type or the Tony Parker mad-crasher type.
There are probably two or three other basic types of PGs that can be identified, if one were a bird-watcher.
The cilantro in your tapioca pudding since 2007.™
i guess
we all should be more specific in how we define our players. bayless is definitely a pg…his size prevents him from being a ft sg. i wish there was more accurate labels other than combo guard.
The most hated Blazer is like the least hottest supermodel - Sabonis4Ever
by Philthyanimal on Feb 11, 2009 10:06 AM PST up reply actions
Speaking of shooter-distributor types, I saw Damon Mighty Mouse on the Grizz bench, a head coach of the future...
The cilantro in your tapioca pudding since 2007.™
does Bayless
remind anyone else of the mouse? I think there games are sooooo similar it is ridiculous! Bayless has the advantage of size and leaping ability that Damon never enjoyed but they both play a certain brand of basketball.
by The Natural ala Mode on Feb 11, 2009 5:18 PM PST up reply actions
i can see it.
especially damon circa rookie of the year.
he had better court vision than j bay from day one.
that is maturity
Damon was 22 and the star of the raptors, Bayless is third string and 20.
by The Natural ala Mode on Feb 12, 2009 7:30 AM PST up reply actions
Westbrook isn't a typical point guard either
Mayo could also play the point guard position in Memphis in the future, if only by name. Like Wade and Roy, they are guards that will have the ball a lot in their hands.
The cake is a lie. Trade the cake!
roles
the fact is we may be unfairly critiquing bayless, sergio, and others. they arent exactly focal points of our team and have niche roles to fill into. if bayless was given the ball and the freedom to do whatever he wanted, i’m sure he’d get more assists, but nate tells him to just drive and score and draw fouls. assists are a bonus but nate just wants him to fill the jjack role of last year. sergio’s natural tendency is to play more of an uptempo pace with the rest of the 4 players moving off the ball so he can find the open player, yet nate wants him to grow as a player by slowing down the pace.
all in all both players could offer more than they are currently now, i think a lot of what we are seeing is by design.
The most hated Blazer is like the least hottest supermodel - Sabonis4Ever
nice
I do think their production is a product of the system and not the player. I think Sergio would be much more successful in an uptempo game and Bayless would kill with the green light. These things don’t really fit with our team, or at the very least with the strategies this team employs to win.
by The Natural ala Mode on Feb 11, 2009 5:20 PM PST up reply actions
Sergio doesn't need uptempo
Sergio just needs a team that moves the ball around a lot in the half court. We’re an iso team, something that Bayless fits better with.
Go back to lookout landing
just kidding, i love you bro, with all of my heart and all of my cooties.
Want more aggressiveness? Try less Baylesslessness.
Moyer is nice but Randy Johnson is more of a killer
Moyer is the guy that killed you with an 88mph fast ball. Caus ethe night before Johnson 100mph fastball kept you on your toes. IN other words it was the tempo change that killed the opponent. In that context, we already have our Moyer in BRoy. we hope that Bayless will be the Randy Johnson type that overpowers and outquicks you. Given that combination, our back court would give other teams real fits on the defensive.
Good point about the role of anticipation in "quickness"
Larry Bird—had they done pre-draft measurements in his day—would have tested as slow. As slow as a turtle. Yet, on the basketball court he was always in the right place in the right time. The reason was that he understood the game so well and was so observant that he was able to anticipate what was about to happen.
GO and Bayless are bright, motivated guys, with athletic ability to burn. GO will magically appear “quicker” next season, and Bayless will “see the court” better. But there’s no substitute for experience. Almost all rookies struggle; that goes wtih the territory.
The good news: by playoff time, these two won’t truly be rookies anymore. The bad news: the playoffs are a whole OTHER learning experience, and nearly ALL the Blazers are rookies in that regard. So we’ll probably have to wait until next year to see the Blazers do real damage in the “second season.”
"We don't back down to nobody." --Joel Przybilla
let's say bayless is the starting PG of the future
what APG number would you need from that position? it’s fine to say that he doesn’t need to be a pure point guard, but you can’t have a guy who ‘runs downhill’ controlling the offense.
he’ll be just fine by me if he can get 5 dimes a game with starter’s minutes.
Production
should be similar to Damon’s I think career we should expect somewhere between 12-17 pts, 5-8 assists, with a steal or two for good measure. I think he is cusp all-star and recognized as a top floor general someday. I think we should expect at least this level of success if he reaches his promise. He obviously has the talent and we have heard about his insane work ethic, it is hard to believe he will be anything less than near great.
by The Natural ala Mode on Feb 11, 2009 5:27 PM PST up reply actions
I'm not concerned with what Bayless gets
As much as I am that both starting guards get 10 assts combined a game.
With Roy at 4 or so, Bayless needs 5 or 6. Certainly attainable in the next few years.
by TheThinWhiteDuke on Feb 11, 2009 11:19 PM PST up reply actions
He is already doing this......
……Bayless has averaged 4.2 assists for the past 8 games while only playing 23 minutes per game.
His assist number per minute over this time period have been very close to Blake’s numbers.
He is improving very quickly.
by upper left corner on Feb 12, 2009 1:40 AM PST up reply actions
by the way
really like the comparison. Recamuendoed
Want more aggressiveness? Try less Baylesslessness.
One implication of the slow rookie reaction hypothesis
bespeaks the merit of acquiring a solid veteran that knows how to react in many situations.
Bayless who has no court vision
Had 8 dimes and looked a lot better than Sergio
by southern oregon on Feb 11, 2009 10:34 PM PST reply actions
Bayless, who has no court vision, is averaging 4.2 dimes per game with only 23 minutes of playing time.....
…….for the past EIGHT GAMES. Adjusted per minute, his assist numbers are right in line with Blake’s.
by upper left corner on Feb 12, 2009 1:44 AM PST up reply actions
Great point about Oden, Cleve
I think this is one very good reason why Oden looks so explosive and athletic one moment, and like a slug the next; even when I know he’s not tired. It really does need to get to the point where this stuff is reflexive.
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